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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, December 6, 2023

[ Tuesday, December 5, 2023 | Index | Today | Thursday, December 7, 2023 ]

DAY 67 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/07/2023 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 39.74°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 28.77°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 34.26°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.800
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 8
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 123

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 1.16 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 7.72 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.04 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 13.76 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 34 in
SWE DAY: 26
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 315.48 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 10.81 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 147

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 3
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 20.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-12-07 07:00:04OBSERVATION20246714739.7428.7700834.2550434.266663751.16000000000017.72000000000016.0413.76TT7.74122.7426315.47801134752 10.8103789353640.7998055767204216 43151220WETL
2023-12-07 03:00:04OBSERVATION20246714739.7428.7700834.2550434.266663751.16000000000017.72000000000016.0413.76TT7.74122.7426315.47801134752 10.8103789353640.7998055767204216 43151220WETL
2023-12-06 11:28:57FORECAST20246714737.41826.70832.06338.3486903424211.22047317.78047316.0413.8204731TT5.418120.41826318.391132456812.2098829463590.717991911943781643151220WETL
2023-12-06 11:00:02FORECAST20246714737.16626.07831.6222.01800334367281.110236827.670236826.0413.71023682TT5.166120.16626291.370510785350.58798666501250.708234661450691643154280WETL
2023-12-06 07:00:06FORECAST20246714737.1326.87321.99447005001341.204725067.764725066.0413.80472506TT5.13120.1326291.352187570570.581093212115390.706828040844271643154280WETL
2023-12-06 03:00:06FORECAST20246714737.0426.74431.8921.09208364222231.078740747.638740746.0413.67874074TT5.04120.0426290.648755292160.317412751286850.703297818458261643154280WETL
2023-12-05 23:00:01FORECAST20246714736.03225.68230.85747.0588428659471.216536097.136536096.0413.17653609TT4.032115.03226324.5070244186715.2709250710140.662504272866151633151217.5WETL
2023-12-05 19:00:02FORECAST20246714735.97825.64630.81247.0654075337541.271654237.191654236.0413.23165423TT3.978114.97826324.5115830051915.2732699035630.66025830565261633151217.5WETL
2023-12-05 15:00:02FORECAST20246714735.7826.47431.12746.9121703339250.98425256.90425256.0412.9442525TT3.78114.7826324.4051533743915.2185498123030.651974857939581633151217.5WETL
2023-12-05 11:00:03FORECAST20246714736.28426.02431.15446.6007573723631.074803736.994803736.0413.03480373TT4.284115.28426324.1887363999615.1074406478270.672908041647061633151217.5WETL
2023-12-05 07:00:07FORECAST20246714737.20227.71632.45946.5907941518371.161417957.171417956.0413.21141795TT5.202117.20226324.1818096162815.1038879596020.709638132472711643151220WETL
2023-12-04 23:00:02FORECAST20246714735.2426.83431.03754.682310943931.122047857.422047856.0413.46204785TT3.24112.2426329.7499740466618.0314906145730.629022633786971633151217.5WETL
2023-12-04 19:00:02FORECAST20246714735.34826.92431.13654.5561947800721.1255911597.2155911596.0413.255591159TT3.348111.34826329.6640624335117.9852168021120.633653027936621633151217.5WETL
2023-12-04 15:00:02FORECAST20246714735.47426.5130.99255.1111152778481.29921337.05921336.0413.0992133TT3.474112.47426330.0418741433218.1889757724290.639030631538711633151217.5WETL
2023-12-04 11:00:02FORECAST20246714733.13425.75429.44456.0923772871191.283465266.923465266.0412.96346526TT1.134109.13426330.708653922418.5502345879310.535793187732711633151217.5WETL
2023-12-04 07:00:05FORECAST20246714733.11626.36629.74156.0172670887031.200788056.410788056.0412.45078805TT1.116110.11626330.6576743202718.5225392573280.534980021659491633151217.5WETL
2023-12-04 03:00:04FORECAST20246714732.43226.0629.24655.8312626324920.996063536.456063536.0412.49606353TT0.432109.43226330.5313855007618.4539845921740.50400246192411633151217.5WETL
2023-12-03 23:00:02FORECAST20246714732.01825.55628.78758.2654176555441.003937556.463937555.9512.41393755TT0.018000000000001109.01826332.1793600468819.3545691496830.485229168505471623151215WETL
2023-12-03 19:00:02FORECAST20246714731.87425.93428.90458.5104864233280.956693436.526693435.9512.47669343TT-0.126107.87426332.3447129452619.4456508146480.478704876000151623151215WETL
2023-12-03 15:00:02FORECAST20246714732.32425.41228.86858.3161879499851.011811576.261811575.9512.21181157TT0.324111.32426332.2136242539619.373432151540.499104250620621633151217.5WETL
2023-12-03 11:00:03FORECAST20246714731.02824.33227.6859.7936807870180.846457156.046457155.9511.99645715TT-0.972107.02826333.2088319437519.9237825326590.4405466888481623151215WETL
2023-12-03 07:00:04FORECAST20246714732.48625.73629.11158.7535792661420.759842936.029842935.9711.99984293TT0.486109.48626332.508630991719.5360722076470.506451387464431633151217.5WETL
2023-12-03 03:00:14FORECAST20246714731.74825.10628.42760.8642800034180.543307386.333307385.9712.30330738TT-0.252107.74826333.9276346917920.324265058760.47300073741551623151215WETL
2023-12-02 23:00:03FORECAST20246714730.72223.2726.99643.5440631534360.480315225.720315226.5512.27031522TT-1.278101.72226322.0553702272514.0235993800790.426861024974651623151215WETL
2023-12-02 19:00:02FORECAST20246714731.87424.54828.21141.6366114828390.492126255.682126256.5512.23212625TT-0.126104.87426320.715680336113.3535141786090.478704876000151623151215WETL
2023-12-02 15:00:02FORECAST20246714732.79226.00629.39940.9424750324950.751968916.271968916.5912.86196891TT0.792106.79226320.2265437639113.1108672727960.520321330552161633151217.5WETL
2023-12-02 11:00:02FORECAST20246714734.03425.14229.58845.7673593564730.633858616.263858616.8513.11385861TT2.034105.03426323.6087222435914.8107166818110.576191177160171633151217.5WETL
2023-12-02 07:00:06FORECAST20246714734.86226.92430.89347.6719871198650.657480675.957480676.7812.73748067TT2.862108.86226324.9324715432715.4901765982370.612672732233271633151217.5WETL
2023-12-02 03:00:06FORECAST20246714732.61225.19628.90449.3456254052560.767716956.117716956.9613.07771695TT0.612104.61226326.0904048104316.0911349640240.512164442157531633151217.5WETL
2023-12-01 23:00:03FORECAST20246714734.66424.6229.64239.755521162480.759842936.429842937.1113.53984293TT2.664106.66426319.3881331704512.6974416873030.604025986481861633151217.5WETL
2023-12-01 19:00:03FORECAST20246714733.85426.18630.0238.1066896176890.732283866.242283867.0813.32228386TT1.854108.85426318.2192706168112.1262829757620.568161494454631633151217.5WETL
2023-12-01 15:00:03FORECAST20246714733.60224.2628.93140.4859289953570.877953236.257953237.213.45795323TT1.602104.60226319.9043593743612.9516251789360.556873200294491633151217.5WETL
2023-12-01 11:00:02FORECAST20246714730.97426.74428.85949.1595308326551.011811576.571811577.514.07181157TT-1.02696.97426325.9618954231716.0241338483260.438125922118651623151215WETL
2023-12-01 07:00:05FORECAST20246714732.07229.5730.82150.6969688621881.145669916.535669917.4914.02566991TT0.072000000000003107.07226327.0217681042816.579012394840.487676892079371623151215WETL
2023-12-01 03:00:08FORECAST20246714732.14427.4129.77754.4296492496040.988189515.968189517.5213.48818951TT0.144104.14426329.5778306658217.9388057235860.490941229796541623151215WETL
2023-11-30 23:00:04FORECAST20246714733.31429.53431.42445.9497873471741.118110845.238110847.3312.56811084TT1.314103.31426323.7357903546614.8755907234660.543916070673951633151217.5WETL
2023-11-30 19:00:03FORECAST20246714733.51227.51830.51544.0917643148391.000000545.820000547.9513.77000054TT1.512105.51226322.4388477031614.2168976788760.552829961418271633151217.5WETL
2023-11-30 15:00:03FORECAST20246714735.34832.03633.69247.05505251171.212599085.902599088.4114.31259908TT3.348109.34826324.5043923151815.2695712206680.633653027936621633151217.5WETL
2023-11-30 11:00:03FORECAST20246714736.4130.63233.52148.7457609708451.236221146.356221147.8314.18622114TT4.41111.4126325.6759449144515.8753217647540.678060634718661633151217.5WETL
2023-11-30 07:00:05FORECAST20246714735.8730.36233.11649.9324980083691.185040016.035040017.7413.77504001TT3.87109.8726326.4952776881716.3027248029070.655749339675931633151217.5WETL
2023-11-30 03:00:06FORECAST20246714735.25832.16233.7149.0295618300611.106299815.976299817.6413.61629981TT3.258109.25826325.8721080521115.9773666704330.629795685040191633151217.5WETL
2023-11-29 23:00:03FORECAST20246714734.44831.02832.73847.675807924411.212599085.232599087.6612.89259908TT2.44897.44826324.9351206375715.4915443994120.59453460302741633151217.5WETL
2023-11-29 19:00:03FORECAST20246714733.96229.96631.96456.0036723401061.287402275.067402277.6312.69740227TT1.96299.96226330.6484461066718.5175272355230.572982903824941633151217.5WETL
2023-11-29 15:00:03FORECAST20246714736.1431.62233.88148.6983268211361.133858885.013858886.9912.00385888TT4.14106.1426325.6431446384415.8582762846650.666978826450871633151217.5WETL
2023-11-29 11:00:04FORECAST20246714736.89633.3535.12350.7837580831770.736220873.556220876.5710.12622087TT4.896101.89626327.0814751722416.6104265086350.69760938803421633151217.5WETL
2023-11-29 07:00:05FORECAST20246714737.4932.01834.75448.7382591163781.204725063.404725066.239.63472506TT5.4999.4926325.6707577145115.8726257761170.720750584136131643151220WETL
2023-11-29 03:00:05FORECAST20246714737.18431.3734.27748.997731896771.795276564.555276566.1810.73527656TT5.184103.18426325.8501142437215.9659165362460.708936791684781643151220WETL
2023-11-28 23:00:03FORECAST20246714736.46431.42433.94454.2874490882141.598426064.828426066.9311.75842606TT4.464101.46426329.4808983037617.8866774922040.680258534132361633151217.5WETL
2023-11-28 19:00:04FORECAST20246714732.19828.6730.43453.1206136215790.62992163.85992166.6910.5499216TT0.19892.19826328.6841879003417.4599057489760.493389893277161623151215WETL
2023-11-28 15:00:04FORECAST20246714732.21628.77830.49757.4998933834931.137795894.437795896.7311.16779589TT0.21690.21626331.6621817782819.0705400915880.4942061743491623151215WETL
2023-11-28 11:00:03FORECAST20246714733.5327.30230.41661.1965440938350.822835094.712835096.4711.18283509TT1.5393.5326334.1503203968320.4488448161340.553639062327581633151217.5WETL
2023-11-28 07:00:05FORECAST20246714732.37825.28628.83255.2350477787690.791339014.471339016.310.77133901TT0.37888.37826330.126179545118.2345353001960.501553385544191633151217.5WETL
2023-11-28 03:00:06FORECAST20246714732.68423.07227.87861.8945186111790.578740473.978740476.3210.29874047TT0.68488.68426334.6174961674720.7109888441640.515427999662231633151217.5WETL
2023-11-27 23:00:03FORECAST20246714733.0824.7128.89550.7336625888930.582677482.512677486.869.37267748TT1.0885.0826327.0470133386116.5922928254260.533353254587971633151217.5WETL
2023-11-27 19:00:05FORECAST20246714734.19627.39230.79454.8902336675140.633858612.443858616.879.31385861TT2.19679.19626329.8915530464218.1078244316570.583391044619811633151217.5WETL
2023-11-27 15:00:04FORECAST20246714739.61433.65636.63557.0518259363890.830709114.37070911711.37070911TT7.61499.61426331.3590063415218.9046363522510.795767192183011643151220WETL
2023-11-27 11:00:04FORECAST20246714736.46430.52433.49473.2341169947061.519685865.779685867.1412.91968586TT4.46492.46426342.0925444208225.0528454211310.680258534132361633151217.5WETL
2023-11-27 07:00:07FORECAST20246714738.0332.37835.20465.6976891265881.311024334.731024337.0911.82102433TT6.03106.0326337.148574280122.1498822225260.741012915741251643151220WETL
2023-11-27 03:00:06FORECAST2024671474133.1737.08569.0885704065050.818898086.148898085.7211.86889808TT910326339.3847404931223.4476065384520.837503888842111643151220WETL
2023-11-26 23:00:04FORECAST20246714733.83631.17232.50443.6977807154550.074803196.064803195.1811.24480319TT1.83685.83626322.1630507008814.0778103441490.567356918067651633151217.5WETL
2023-11-26 19:00:04FORECAST20246714735.00631.29833.15246.1878134566120.094488246.564488245.311.86448824TT3.00686.00626323.9014961879114.9603018842450.618926627185471633151217.5WETL
2023-11-26 15:00:04FORECAST20246714740.0132.21636.11368.6801259114431.10236285.04236286.1711.2123628TT8.0174.0126339.1164049229723.2905573887460.808296414163391643151220WETL
2023-11-26 11:00:05FORECAST20246714738.06636.44637.25670.9506098744840.925197354.535197357.2811.81519735TT6.066100.06626340.6045223565924.1660985872070.74233622713331643151220WETL
2023-11-26 07:00:08FORECAST20246714731.49630.1130.80384.0481309994580.925197354.255197357.2611.51519735TT-0.50474.49626349.0233382834129.3347592579120.461610216397531623151215WETL
2023-11-26 03:00:06FORECAST20246714734.21434.08834.15161.07786758624404.655.810.45TT2.21488.21426334.0708041500520.4043323403070.584189352506031633151217.5WETL