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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, December 4, 2023

[ Sunday, December 3, 2023 | Index | Today | Tuesday, December 5, 2023 ]

DAY 65 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/05/2023 07:00:06 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 43.85°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 34.01°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 38.93°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.900
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 12
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 137

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 2.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 4.64 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.71 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 8.35 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 46 in
SWE DAY: 28
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 325.53 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 14.83 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 145

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 3
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 22.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-12-05 07:00:06OBSERVATION20246514543.8499434.0100638.9345.54288791666724.643.718.35TT11.84994136.8499428325.53018503367 14.825584730480.899994010083916 53151222.5WETL
2023-12-05 03:00:04OBSERVATION20246514543.8499434.0100638.9345.54288791666724.643.718.35TT11.84994136.8499428325.53018503367 14.825584730480.899994010083916 53151222.5WETL
2023-12-04 11:00:01FORECAST20246514540.6429.3935.01552.4158729215622.08661534.72661533.718.4366153TT8.64133.6428330.2437856427417.3100163013860.811058341328061643151220WETL
2023-12-04 07:00:05FORECAST20246514541.1830.05635.61852.4424981468481.814961614.454961613.718.16496161TT9.18134.1828330.2618861044817.3197583500090.828693322708441643151220WETL
2023-12-04 03:00:04FORECAST20246514540.80230.45235.62752.5308471820332.00787514.64787513.718.3578751TT8.802133.80228330.321939111717.352091304350.816462380078851643151220WETL
2023-12-03 23:00:02FORECAST20246514540.6429.94835.29454.819401727752.074804274.624804273.718.33480427TT8.64133.6428331.872839257218.1930704977690.811058341328061643151220WETL
2023-12-03 19:00:01FORECAST20246514540.6430.3835.5155.0738677504722.066930254.616930253.718.32693025TT8.64133.6428332.0447286801618.2869874745730.811058341328061643151220WETL
2023-12-03 15:00:02FORECAST20246514541.70229.64235.67254.5761201640621.948819954.498819953.718.20881995TT9.702134.70228331.7084009170518.1033575478780.844707457017931643151220WETL
2023-12-03 11:00:02FORECAST20246514540.65828.77834.71856.7443084569371.996064074.546064073.718.25606407TT8.658133.65828333.17034153618.9055206288220.811663575126811643151220WETL
2023-12-03 07:00:04FORECAST20246514541.10829.31835.21355.9980855601282.153544474.723544473.718.43354447TT9.108134.10828332.668095481418.6287764738930.826404607842761643151220WETL
2023-12-03 03:00:13FORECAST20246514540.67631.17235.92457.8661571887542.354331984.924331983.718.63433198TT8.676133.67628333.923613847519.3228763279360.812267614148071643151220WETL
2023-12-02 23:00:02FORECAST20246514539.75830.45235.10539.7502343497052.04724525.19724523.718.9072452TT7.758129.75828321.4930885671412.7794256123540.779955562686321643151220WETL
2023-12-02 19:00:02FORECAST20246514540.67630.09235.38438.9295816385412.173229525.323229523.719.03322952TT8.676130.67628320.9163290941812.4931384326130.812267614148071643151220WETL
2023-12-02 15:00:02FORECAST20246514540.83830.93835.88837.9213870644842.484253315.674253313.719.38425331TT8.838131.83828320.2061163982712.1426600803540.817650096449991643151220WETL
2023-12-02 11:00:02FORECAST20246514539.99232.84636.41944.3406420142452.645670726.095670723.719.80567072TT7.992129.99228324.697176845814.3972812815560.788480833518271643151220WETL
2023-12-02 07:00:06FORECAST20246514540.33433.36836.85145.7031947860282.314961885.694961883.719.40496188TT8.334132.33428325.641065848914.8828370628220.800587265827151643151220WETL
2023-12-02 03:00:06FORECAST20246514539.14632.7235.93346.0335052312882.610237636.170237633.719.88023763TT7.146131.14628325.8693921771315.0009103695020.756752279544411643151220WETL
2023-12-01 23:00:02FORECAST20246514539.84833.45836.65336.7936307508522.625985676.355985673.6910.04598567TT7.848129.84828319.4095216022211.7522359961380.78325756450311643151220WETL
2023-12-01 19:00:03FORECAST20246514541.16232.95437.05835.5470176187982.228347665.928347663.699.61834766TT9.162132.16228318.526312530411.3226604435690.82812295600811643151220WETL
2023-12-01 15:00:02FORECAST20246514539.45230.70435.07835.9775140834292.251969726.071969723.699.76196972TT7.452130.45228318.8316298110111.4707694517680.768515723616851643151220WETL
2023-12-01 11:00:02FORECAST20246514538.82229.76834.29542.3628401085442.275591786.395591783.6910.08559178TT6.822125.82228323.321257390113.6968067305110.743953400030341643151220WETL
2023-12-01 07:00:04FORECAST20246514539.63230.90235.26744.785303175252.460631256.560631253.710.26063125TT7.632133.63228325.005568676814.5554729268350.775284716494421643151220WETL
2023-12-01 03:00:07FORECAST20246514539.25431.22635.2446.9079416372532.350394976.390394973.7910.18039497TT7.254130.25428326.472920296615.3141726914170.760940538402131643151220WETL
2023-11-30 23:00:03FORECAST20246514539.54228.6734.10641.3241667192991.913386866.053386863.59.55338686TT7.542128.54228322.595898991213.3310067128750.77191431680411643151220WETL
2023-11-30 19:00:03FORECAST20246514540.47829.62435.05140.0162098227122.228347667.068347663.4210.48834766TT8.478131.47828321.6797598504512.8724047658950.805557586961421643151220WETL
2023-11-30 15:00:02FORECAST20246514540.20829.9335.06942.8280355609861.984253047.274253043.4310.70425304TT8.208132.20828323.6455070535513.8611012852430.796176235979311643151220WETL
2023-11-30 11:00:02FORECAST20246514540.44228.86834.65545.1973488801992.775592057.475592053.4410.91559205TT8.442133.44228325.2910295146114.7022921485710.804322115130421643151220WETL
2023-11-30 07:00:05FORECAST20246514539.77627.12233.44945.4863933004542.358268997.058268993.3510.40826899TT7.776132.77628325.4910981617914.8054161067840.780618258005041643151220WETL
2023-11-30 03:00:06FORECAST20246514539.18230.14634.66445.5747594158082.523623416.953623413.5210.47362341TT7.182133.18228325.5522334603914.8369647172360.758152750190641643151220WETL
2023-11-29 23:00:02FORECAST20246514538.329.85834.07944.139492667181.346457426.106457423.219.31645742TT6.3123.328324.5575565749814.3258058885190.722618557706261643151220WETL
2023-11-29 19:00:02FORECAST20246514538.9329.01233.97148.4968123668131.271654236.051654233.169.21165423TT6.93124.9328327.5661197401115.8859126467610.748258302115891643151220WETL
2023-11-29 15:00:03FORECAST20246514540.29830.21835.25843.8136751884461.192914035.292914033.28.49291403TT8.298129.29828324.331251191214.2101440931540.799332861129161643151220WETL
2023-11-29 11:00:03FORECAST20246514538.58828.11233.3544.7823053732160.685039743.965039743.67.56503974TT6.588124.58828325.0034907368514.5544055695390.734496235374131643151220WETL
2023-11-29 07:00:05FORECAST20246514538.69625.0731.88344.412627288010.641732633.781732633.47.18173263TT6.696122.69628324.7471253925514.4228730429120.73888297368791643151220WETL
2023-11-29 03:00:04FORECAST20246514539.12828.41833.77340.9593207880310.775590973.805590973.467.26559097TT7.128127.12828322.3406540445913.2028542520360.756050406329111643151220WETL
2023-11-28 23:00:03FORECAST20246514538.69629.73234.21447.8325674129861.275591244.945591243.578.51559124TT6.696123.69628327.1096322534615.6464935362010.73888297368791643151220WETL
2023-11-28 19:00:04FORECAST20246514537.7629.333.5348.6057202253221.086614764.356614763.738.08661476TT5.76118.7628327.6408907671415.9252214710030.69967226293541643151220WETL
2023-11-28 15:00:03FORECAST20246514537.45429.3933.42248.1480419963321.137795894.327795893.858.17779589TT5.454119.45428327.3265311359615.7601315676480.686300319938421633151217.5WETL
2023-11-28 11:00:03FORECAST20246514536.03229.19232.61253.2757798858141.787402544.787402543.788.56740254TT4.032119.03228330.827752655417.6251065305880.62114675268341633151217.5WETL
2023-11-28 07:00:05FORECAST20246514536.89629.01232.95449.6602301261891.594489054.624489053.588.20448905TT4.896115.89628328.3637990986616.3066218283490.661285669904811633151217.5WETL
2023-11-28 03:00:06FORECAST20246514536.8632.12634.49354.8780139142032.271654775.251654773.658.90165477TT4.86116.8628331.9124410904818.214695560460.659645600325761633151217.5WETL
2023-11-27 23:00:03FORECAST20246514536.01431.98233.99841.7459047559960.929134365.0991343638.09913436TT4.014114.01428322.8906508678413.479362357730.620294675142911633151217.5WETL
2023-11-27 19:00:05FORECAST20246514535.97832.4534.21453.8035348319010.921260345.1012603438.10126034TT3.978105.97828331.1855225037517.8189517958520.618588771002841633151217.5WETL
2023-11-27 15:00:03FORECAST20246514537.50832.66635.08755.436561727021.791339556.141339552.969.10133955TT5.508118.50828332.2895331287718.4209892145350.688678601740511633151217.5WETL
2023-11-27 11:00:03FORECAST20246514537.50832.41434.96157.9525384390292.444883217.224883212.679.89488321TT5.508114.50828333.9815261241519.3550772306360.688678601740511633151217.5WETL
2023-11-27 07:00:07FORECAST20246514538.51633.96236.23955.4234310921241.77165456.51165452.669.1716545TT6.516125.51628332.2806743905118.4161350603270.731551139579291643151220WETL
2023-11-27 03:00:06FORECAST20246514539.27230.23634.75454.8491639025933.22834826.70834822.559.2583482TT7.272123.27228331.8929490661318.2040507614430.761634734985321643151220WETL
2023-11-26 23:00:04FORECAST20246514538.330.77634.53843.4356411135362.885828335.905828332.478.37582833TT6.3112.328324.0684425315414.0761205660220.722618557706261643151220WETL
2023-11-26 19:00:04FORECAST20246514536.84231.08233.96245.6410373001543.035434716.165434712.488.64543471TT4.842110.84228325.5980782111814.8606340324950.658824430084911633151217.5WETL
2023-11-26 15:00:03FORECAST20246514533.94428.83231.38857.0951927423631.570866995.530866992.528.05086699TT1.94494.94428333.4061756989419.0358898630250.519441985576311633151217.5WETL
2023-11-26 11:00:05FORECAST20246514534.98830.45232.7260.9409701762231.944882947.204882942.339.53488294TT2.988119.98828335.9772461212620.4747793357650.570883258510941633151217.5WETL
2023-11-26 07:00:07FORECAST20246514531.7326.99629.36364.6607458955131.716536366.966536362.329.28653636TT-0.27104.7328338.4402985615721.8838021460910.410343578639671623151215WETL
2023-11-26 03:00:05FORECAST20246514539.63232.34235.98756.2462712492033.133859966.313859962.939.24385996TT7.632113.63228332.8352427697318.7207413461210.775284716494421643151220WETL
2023-11-25 23:00:04FORECAST20246514541.8134.53838.17444.9630123678922.645670725.205670722.377.57567072TT9.81112.8128325.1287203371614.6187666736770.847893524422031643151220WETL
2023-11-25 19:00:03FORECAST20246514539.07430.77634.92550.6198004112172.586615574.926615572.337.25661557TT7.074102.07428329.0199420424216.6549237974980.753938256931091643151220WETL
2023-11-25 15:00:04FORECAST20246514536.06829.85832.96338.0427678427932.44094624.86094622.247.1009462TT4.06898.06828320.2917182190612.1847834781770.622849139382571633151217.5WETL
2023-11-25 11:00:03FORECAST20246514535.8729.5732.7238.3421178104721.85039473.36039472.275.6303947TT3.8797.8728320.5027171491512.2887529395090.61345734603991633151217.5WETL
2023-11-25 07:00:05FORECAST20246514539.59629.71434.65539.6898371588151.795276563.305276562.225.52527656TT7.596114.59628321.4506820439312.7583252249140.773939951793471643151220WETL
2023-11-25 03:00:06FORECAST20246514540.31622.87431.59533.9525806506450.830709112.150709111.743.89070911TF8.316124.31628317.3925912806910.7762975533750.799960653369441643151220DRYL
2023-11-24 23:00:03FORECAST20246514527.03220.04823.5451.1816523072430.440945123.240945122.15.34094512TT-4.96897.03228329.4033881253916.8594096798620.208643465255171613151212.5WETL
2023-11-24 19:00:03FORECAST20246514524.69220.04822.3755.3808374453640.484252233.414252232.245.65425223TT-7.30886.69228332.2519360488218.4003904612270.135139911559671613151212.5WETL
2023-11-24 15:00:03FORECAST20246514533.49423.928.69762.7725128118430.948819414.828819412.347.16881941TT1.494104.49428337.1929118534521.1664463793830.497117517675221623151215WETL
2023-11-24 11:00:05FORECAST20246514530.07428.34629.2143.8894412717440.19685052.48685052.064.5468505TF-1.92697.07428324.3838932964914.2370278343360.332629119135791623151215WETL
2023-11-24 07:00:06FORECAST20246514529.9328.34629.13841.4672973873850.19685052.31685051.94.2168505TF-2.0798.9328322.695968128113.3813296760780.326146630986891623151215WETL
2023-11-24 03:00:05FORECAST20246514527.62627.10427.36550.0960104727090.263779672.753779672.395.14377967TF-4.37497.62628328.6619788340416.4646539336520.230493271123421613151212.5WETL