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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, December 30, 2023

[ Friday, December 29, 2023 | Index | Today | Sunday, December 31, 2023 ]

DAY 91 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/31/2023 07:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 36.95°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 30.14°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 33.55°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.538
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 5
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 162

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.47 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.67 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.31 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.98 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 58 in
SWE DAY: 2
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 306.80 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 17.87 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 171

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-12-31 07:00:05OBSERVATION20249117136.9530.1400633.5450358.25775750.469999999999910.669999999999913.313.9799999999999TF4.95161.952306.80054225721 17.8735115916890.5378781894111116 3113127.5DRYL
2023-12-31 03:00:05OBSERVATION20249117136.9530.1400633.5450358.25775750.469999999999910.669999999999913.313.9799999999999TF4.95161.952306.80054225721 17.8735115916890.5378781894111116 3113127.5DRYL
2023-12-30 11:00:02FORECAST20249117132.25227.21229.73259.9992661873130.3248033250.5248033253.313.834803325TF0.252157.2522308.0853571921518.4848953545860.47239724417623162113126DRYL
2023-12-30 07:00:04FORECAST20249117133.04427.87830.46160.2241039155340.2948820490.4948820493.313.804882049TF1.044158.0442308.2508195562618.5641293890050.48343222581771162113126DRYL
2023-12-30 03:00:04FORECAST20249117132.86428.50830.68660.4624002134620.3562994050.5562994053.313.866299405TF0.864157.8642308.4260832213518.648181280.48092285589966162113126DRYL
2023-12-29 23:00:01FORECAST20249117133.22428.05830.64161.1025020213540.3476379830.5476379833.313.857637983TF1.224151.2242308.8963444833718.8743395131840.4859422521608162113126DRYL
2023-12-29 19:00:02FORECAST20249117134.23229.89432.06360.7187569253230.2578741550.4578741553.313.767874155TF2.232152.2322308.6145116644218.7386895173790.50000587574534163112125DRYL
2023-12-29 15:00:02FORECAST20249117134.23229.89432.06360.7187569253230.2578741550.4578741553.313.767874155TF2.232152.2322308.6145116644218.7386895173790.50000587574534163112125DRYL
2023-12-29 11:00:01FORECAST20249117134.68229.60632.14460.1256749417430.2074804270.4074804273.313.717480427TF2.682152.6822308.1783954294318.5294340276580.5062853184061163112125DRYL
2023-12-29 07:00:04FORECAST20249117135.13230.32632.72959.9640098732970.2015749120.4015749123.313.711574912TF3.132153.1322308.0594028280818.4724770727450.51256320394774163112125DRYL
2023-12-29 03:00:04FORECAST20249117134.48430.2932.38759.7116887659830.07874020.27874023.313.5887402FF2.484151.4842307.8735857226818.383651729940.50352246349047163112125DRYL
2023-12-28 23:00:02FORECAST20249117135.38430.59632.9959.769641453820.1066929710.2766929713.313.586692971FF3.384152.3842307.9162744187518.4040453198050.51607756020247163112125DRYL
2023-12-28 19:00:01FORECAST20249117135.6929.80432.74759.915285866810.1818898620.3518898623.313.661889862TF3.69152.692308.023530232718.4553178675960.52034328808916163112125DRYL
2023-12-28 15:00:02FORECAST20249117135.94230.2933.11660.1213610699750.1744095430.3544095433.313.664409543TF3.942151.9422308.1752208645418.5279137264160.52385451348426163112125DRYL
2023-12-28 11:00:02FORECAST20249117134.4330.27232.35160.5280934188420.1688977290.3388977293.313.648897729TF2.43150.432308.4743810241818.6713661519510.50276892270421163112125DRYL
2023-12-28 07:00:08FORECAST20249117135.54630.32632.93659.873717381930.0259842660.2859842663.313.595984266TF3.546152.5462307.9929223137218.4406811862460.51833614704208163112125DRYL
2023-12-28 03:00:05FORECAST20249117135.3330.09232.71160.3604083822070.0133858340.3733858343.313.683385834TF3.33151.332308.3510826107918.6121972714830.51532457968174163112125DRYL
2023-12-27 23:00:03FORECAST20249117135.5129.94832.72960.337198322960.011811030.251811033.563.81181103TF3.51145.512308.3340121708918.6040104420690.51783428715531163112125DRYL
2023-12-27 19:00:02FORECAST20249117134.32228.68831.50560.33506634421700.233.563.79TF2.322144.3222308.3324441013818.6032584709310.50126181418249163112125DRYL
2023-12-27 15:00:02FORECAST20249117135.07828.97632.02759.78764597347900.143.563.7TF3.078146.0782307.9295355004618.4103820532790.51180999135087163112125DRYL
2023-12-27 11:00:02FORECAST20249117135.94230.81233.37760.28376150217600.113.563.67FF3.942149.9422308.2947068495818.5851645801040.52385451348426163112125DRYL
2023-12-27 07:00:04FORECAST20249117133.54830.05631.80260.48476943009800.13.533.63FF1.548144.5482308.4425300281918.6560753111910.49046163657608162112124DRYL
2023-12-27 03:00:07FORECAST20249117134.75430.99232.87360.81244667135200.143.583.72TF2.754145.7542308.6833453070418.7717894748190.50728992514318163112125DRYL
2023-12-26 23:00:02FORECAST20249117134.3428.45431.39763.0786016098630.0440945120.2040945123.483.684094512TF2.34142.342310.3433041005119.5760216416440.50151300076756163112125DRYL
2023-12-26 19:00:03FORECAST20249117134.86227.84231.35263.5325881793140.1464567720.3164567723.543.856456772TF2.862144.8622310.6747020618519.7379679038270.50879674656756163112125DRYL
2023-12-26 15:00:03FORECAST20249117135.11426.8730.99262.62661082915300.113.423.53FF3.114142.1142310.0129831655119.4150624486910.51231213792843163112125DRYL
2023-12-26 11:00:04FORECAST20249117136.26628.43632.35163.5516487090980.1311024330.2611024333.483.741102433TF4.266145.2662310.6886073777619.744773233990.52836618787623163112125DRYL
2023-12-26 07:00:06FORECAST20249117135.74427.44631.59563.2401191095620.1070866720.2370866723.473.707086672TF3.744143.7442310.4612513185719.633606512290.521095835756163112125DRYL
2023-12-26 03:00:07FORECAST20249117134.35827.08630.72263.7671325375340.0968504460.2268504463.593.816850446TF2.358141.3582310.8457634683519.8217429978180.50176418675283163112125DRYL
2023-12-25 23:00:03FORECAST20249117135.58229.40832.49567.8346540555120.1830709650.2830709653.383.663070965TF3.582141.5822313.7961981904121.2862565481810.51883797787281163112125DRYL
2023-12-25 19:00:03FORECAST20249117136.37430.59633.48567.2853236754980.0897638280.1897638283.313.499763828FF4.374142.3742313.399511709121.087187585090.52986929952539163112125DRYL
2023-12-25 15:00:02FORECAST20249117136.84230.90233.87266.2141431657740.0610236550.1710236553.113.281023655FF4.842143.8422312.6243892109320.7001560643250.536377593088163112125DRYL
2023-12-25 11:00:03FORECAST20249117135.65430.79433.22470.1471514201110.1322835360.2522835363.123.372283536FF3.654141.6542315.4600596632122.1286245721920.51984154919017163112125DRYL
2023-12-25 07:00:05FORECAST20249117136.57230.5633.56670.1098119332970.0937008380.2237008383.063.283700838FF4.572142.5722315.4332711403222.1149673171520.53262388376308163112125DRYL
2023-12-25 03:00:07FORECAST20249117135.27627.55431.41572.7936269005920.3444883750.5744883753.333.904488375TF3.276140.2762317.3522675393923.1012225593190.51457154451071163113127.5DRYL
2023-12-24 23:00:03FORECAST20249117134.50227.5931.04666.4138441791910.1854331710.3954331712.783.175433171FF2.502135.5022312.7690558820120.772195341420.5037736410925163112125DRYL
2023-12-24 19:00:03FORECAST20249117135.1529.51632.33365.5209943185930.1440945660.3540945662.723.074094566FF3.15139.152312.1216911258420.4505235509660.51281426498816163112125DRYL
2023-12-24 15:00:02FORECAST20249117135.58228.88632.23464.6320393018050.0846457150.2746457152.572.844645715FF3.582141.5822311.4756901668820.1313090484230.51883797787281163112125DRYL
2023-12-24 11:00:03FORECAST20249117134.4330.84832.63966.0598748403710.1744095430.4044095432.713.114409543FF2.43136.432312.5125844709720.6445422161930.50276892270421163112125DRYL
2023-12-24 07:00:04FORECAST20249117136.35630.95633.65665.8726545035240.1830709650.4330709652.873.303070965FF4.356139.3562312.376839164120.5770916011590.52961880988859163112125DRYL
2023-12-24 03:00:06FORECAST20249117135.88831.06433.47665.7793936702770.1452756690.3152756692.883.195275669FF3.888138.8882312.3091957077920.543509531310.52310225462872163112125DRYL
2023-12-23 23:00:02FORECAST20249117135.43831.15433.29665.175315070360.0649606650.4649606653.333.794960665TF3.438134.4382311.8706603536120.3262685497480.51683048339051163112125DRYL
2023-12-23 19:00:03FORECAST20249117135.16831.51433.34165.1190786212790.1082677750.5182677753.443.958267775TF3.168140.1682311.8298008385220.3060693172610.51306532095025163113127.5DRYL
2023-12-23 15:00:03FORECAST20249117134.26829.49831.88364.564423317200.283.343.62TF2.268131.2682311.4264941136420.1070719981450.50050825182419163112125DRYL
2023-12-23 11:00:03FORECAST20249117132.16226.70829.43563.2165022185150.0267716680.1967716682.953.146771668FF0.162125.1622310.4440082409819.6251843356910.47114444967326162112124DRYL
2023-12-23 08:13:19FORECAST20249117132.7228.0430.3863.1372099528460.0267716680.2167716682.953.166771668FF0.72128.722310.3861080969219.5969128733620.47891589930989162112124DRYL
2023-12-23 07:00:05FORECAST20249117132.95428.81430.8846.30942516648320.0259842660.1959842662.833.025984266FF0.954133.9542265.741005927491.67667299056550.482177452598621621124216DRYL
2023-12-23 03:00:05FORECAST20249117131.89227.3229.60610.7008943328640.1622048120.7522048123.13.852204812TF-0.108124.8922269.425430669932.88309306418540.467387828427151621133218DRYL
2023-12-22 23:00:04FORECAST20249117132.14427.55429.84958.9126892392520.0244094620.1044094622.532.634409462FF0.144120.1442307.2843913940218.1029498582690.47089392463535162112124DRYL
2023-12-22 19:00:06FORECAST20249117131.76628.02229.89458.9835492055920.0385826980.1185826982.642.758582698FF-0.234120.7662307.3366929382518.1278089506070.46563571152551162112124DRYL
2023-12-22 15:00:04FORECAST20249117133.87230.09231.98259.5711081478630.0688976750.2888976752.632.918897675FF1.872128.8722307.7700061157718.3342003189910.49498224588708162112124DRYL
2023-12-22 11:00:06FORECAST20249117132.70226.34829.52560.987654697280.0122047310.2522047312.642.892204731FF0.702127.7022308.8120262925818.8337212258990.47866506627298162112124DRYL
2023-12-22 07:00:15FORECAST20249117132.77427.7730.27262.0012905895170.0122047310.2422047312.843.082204731FF0.774126.7742309.5553650321919.1928321409040.4796684481282162112124DRYL
2023-12-22 03:00:08FORECAST20249117130.72225.57428.14861.80276708375500.162.983.14FF-1.278128.7222309.4099306706319.1223898786380.45114693424938162112124DRYL
2023-12-21 23:00:05FORECAST20249117130.86626.36628.61663.7158818168550.1527559880.2727559883.23.472755988FF-1.134130.8662310.8083932253419.8034308504320.45314196210482162112124DRYL
2023-12-21 19:00:04FORECAST20249117131.56826.54629.05764.7048353905970.1641733170.2941733173.173.464173317FF-0.432128.5682311.5286457174420.1574097406020.46288374328772162112124DRYL
2023-12-21 15:00:03FORECAST20249117133.24228.09430.66868.6542248470490.0122047310.3722047314.124.492204731TF1.242127.2422314.3870047046221.5839961099810.48619328707382162112124WETL
2023-12-21 11:00:04FORECAST20249117135.90628.52632.21664.50899265269500.243.53.74TF3.906130.9062311.3861575554820.0872073498980.52335301686097163112125DRYL
2023-12-21 07:00:10FORECAST20249117132.4524.828.62563.55065937658100.243.373.61FF0.45127.452310.6878856420319.7444199928670.47515433608969162112124DRYL
2023-12-21 03:00:10FORECAST20249117129.1219.29224.20662.12317882873900.432.583.01FF-2.88117.122309.6446215971419.2361082008360.42904670221538162112124DRYL
2023-12-20 23:00:05FORECAST20249117128.43625.82627.13167.72303843851800.243.173.41FF-3.564106.4362313.7156423023321.2457765024050.41967386674409162112124DRYL
2023-12-20 19:00:05FORECAST20249117127.69824.1725.93466.59561760147100.243.053.29FF-4.302108.6982312.9006717337320.8378134820230.40961207592967162112124DRYL
2023-12-20 15:00:03FORECAST20249117131.1928.95830.07471.81820551337300.863.063.92TF-0.81113.192316.6563290408222.7416893161640.45763502523043162113126DRYL
2023-12-20 11:00:03FORECAST20249117135.00630.72232.86477.6624540839740.0618110571.3818110573.785.161811057TF3.006135.0062320.8003860635124.9141452527780.510805642824491631141210WETL
2023-12-20 07:00:04FORECAST20249117135.00630.72232.86474.9070581462250.0618110571.4018110573.444.841811057TF3.006139.0062318.85424513123.8844334801990.510805642824491631141210WETL
2023-12-20 03:00:07FORECAST20249117130.7430.54230.64165.64827294194600.642.192.83FF-1.26116.742312.2140648065320.4963141427340.45139624631178162113126DRYL