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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, December 3, 2023

[ Saturday, December 2, 2023 | Index | Today | Monday, December 4, 2023 ]

DAY 64 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/04/2023 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 35.64°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 24.96°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 30.30°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.595
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 4
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 135

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 1.44 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 4.42 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.94 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.36 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 53 in
SWE DAY: 29
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 331.67 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 17.59 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 144

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 3
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 17.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-12-04 07:00:04OBSERVATION20246414435.6399624.9600230.2999953.0297495833331.43999999999994.41999999999991.946.3599999999999TT3.63996134.6399629331.67438444182 17.5886095501560.5947440081619816 33151217.5WETL
2023-12-04 03:00:04OBSERVATION20246414435.6399624.9600230.2999953.0297495833331.43999999999994.41999999999991.946.3599999999999TT3.63996134.6399629331.67438444182 17.5886095501560.5947440081619816 33151217.5WETL
2023-12-03 11:00:01FORECAST20246414435.81624.83630.32657.2196954570711.346457424.326457421.946.26645742TT3.816134.81629334.4926572952519.1395679830610.60324465970221633151217.5WETL
2023-12-03 07:00:04FORECAST20246414436.03225.12430.57856.4870620539691.370079484.350079481.946.29007948TT4.032135.03229334.0020291491718.8667933467010.613607879594971633151217.5WETL
2023-12-03 03:00:12FORECAST20246414435.72625.03430.3857.9541117902751.370079484.350079481.946.29007948TT3.726134.72629334.9835639430819.4136749126620.598904576137031633151217.5WETL
2023-12-02 23:00:01FORECAST20246414435.99625.37630.68639.9457486743011.464567724.934567721.946.87456772TT3.996131.99629322.6781525676412.8896203851550.611886072720611633151217.5WETL
2023-12-02 19:00:01FORECAST20246414435.74424.58430.16438.9458727445921.464567724.934567721.946.87456772TT3.744131.74429321.9782874659412.539725410170.59977358824881633151217.5WETL
2023-12-02 15:00:01FORECAST20246414436.60824.36830.48838.3750224801181.503937824.973937821.946.91393782TT4.608132.60829321.577921923412.340559982920.640831757848141633151217.5WETL
2023-12-02 11:00:02FORECAST20246414436.44624.24230.34444.7701258739511.759843475.229843471.947.16984347TT4.446132.44629326.0301192356114.5964094768780.633240217398841633151217.5WETL
2023-12-02 07:00:05FORECAST20246414436.06826.72631.39746.0168124337541.724410385.164410381.947.10441038TT4.068134.06829326.8896563960915.0424200049130.615327453088391633151217.5WETL
2023-12-02 03:00:05FORECAST20246414435.5125.75430.63246.4113264905771.787402545.337402541.947.27740254TT3.51133.5129327.161090546815.1839801883810.588439434038831633151217.5WETL
2023-12-01 23:00:02FORECAST20246414435.9627.26631.61336.5688885310631.925197895.485197891.947.42519789TT3.96131.9629320.3073600468111.7132841452310.610162064394771633151217.5WETL
2023-12-01 19:00:02FORECAST20246414437.29226.47431.88335.8345929438651.937008925.457008921.947.39700892TT5.292133.29229319.7891358958911.45951351270.672245594541941633151217.5WETL
2023-12-01 15:00:02FORECAST20246414436.91426.31231.61335.5615613538361.956693975.576693971.947.51669397TT4.914132.91429319.5961990521211.3653398410450.655018637958621633151217.5WETL
2023-12-01 11:00:02FORECAST20246414434.91626.45630.68642.6378268950182.40157615.88157611.947.8215761TT2.916128.91629324.5536665942313.8382630543880.559356043477181633151217.5WETL
2023-12-01 07:00:04FORECAST20246414436.57228.43632.50443.8344210690642.350394975.870394971.947.81039497TT4.572135.57229325.3832002946914.2629842105170.639149422439941633151217.5WETL
2023-12-01 03:00:07FORECAST20246414436.19428.47232.33345.1206467822042.374017035.904017031.947.84401703TT4.194133.19429326.2720635522514.7216065344420.621327914586871633151217.5WETL
2023-11-30 23:00:03FORECAST20246414436.37427.9532.16240.5601674031392.488190325.828190321.827.64819032TT4.374131.37429323.1073352866213.1052876084070.629849197868921633151217.5WETL
2023-11-30 19:00:02FORECAST20246414436.75229.10232.92739.997779649153.039371726.449371721.828.26937172TT4.752132.75229322.7145231192412.9078643853040.64753355502951633151217.5WETL
2023-11-30 15:00:02FORECAST20246414436.89630.05633.47642.6766026310113.472442826.912442821.828.73244282TT4.896133.89629324.5805872498513.8519967438020.654189885069661633151217.5WETL
2023-11-30 11:00:02FORECAST20246414437.23828.52632.88241.9300890089272.767718036.327718031.828.14771803TT5.238135.23829324.0618424691313.5879418991280.669805855366951633151217.5WETL
2023-11-30 07:00:05FORECAST20246414437.61628.92233.26942.3485898431672.645670726.285670721.778.05567072TT5.616134.61629324.3527756152513.7358826590230.686727143772161633151217.5WETL
2023-11-30 03:00:05FORECAST20246414437.05828.34632.70242.7555726587552.602363616.172363611.797.96236361TT5.058136.05829324.6354052175513.8799726553840.661621635914251633151217.5WETL
2023-11-29 23:00:02FORECAST20246414435.1528.07631.61343.5925840785932.405513116.165513111.817.97551311TT3.15127.1529325.2157510783314.1769949725650.570860496667781633151217.5WETL
2023-11-29 19:00:02FORECAST20246414435.72627.75231.73947.852936022642.350394976.150394971.87.95039497TT3.726127.72629328.1506392049415.7029715436620.598904576137031633151217.5WETL
2023-11-29 15:00:03FORECAST20246414438.0327.21232.62143.8967564064742.04724525.51724521.797.3072452TT6.03131.0329325.4263449427314.28516099220.704818419161641643151220WETL
2023-11-29 11:00:03FORECAST20246414434.17826.11430.14643.7460454215291.783465534.993465531.96.89346553TT2.178128.17829325.3220204527614.231551883350.522788871317811633151217.5WETL
2023-11-29 07:00:04FORECAST20246414433.76425.30429.53442.7720697343941.685040284.705040281.846.54504028TT1.764125.76429324.6468554670513.8858179410880.5021711314231633151217.5WETL
2023-11-29 03:00:04FORECAST20246414435.04225.91630.47941.2002515091881.527559884.627559881.876.49755988TT3.042130.04229323.553733967313.330495216190.565557613914421633151217.5WETL
2023-11-28 23:00:02FORECAST20246414435.04225.30430.17347.2385113705752.039371185.329371181.927.24937118TT3.042127.04229327.7293292650115.4814456469560.565557613914421633151217.5WETL
2023-11-28 19:00:04FORECAST20246414432.50425.1628.83247.1043609625191.728347395.098347391.917.00834739TT0.504122.50429327.6372550745815.4331435278020.439616193286521623151215WETL
2023-11-28 15:00:03FORECAST20246414432.2723.07227.67147.4988062593371.834646665.124646661.937.05464666TT0.27124.2729327.9078933032815.575233494920.428116691842121623151215WETL
2023-11-28 11:00:02FORECAST20246414432.32424.60228.46346.1557960344921.429134634.829134631.966.78913463TT0.324125.32429326.9853111343715.0922673269930.43076537875991623151215WETL
2023-11-28 07:00:05FORECAST20246414433.13424.3528.74245.3276644332341.488189784.658189781.966.61818978TT1.134121.13429326.4148547218814.7956230008560.47080356698821623151215WETL
2023-11-28 03:00:05FORECAST20246414433.90824.33229.1245.240530301171.834646664.694646661.956.64464666TT1.908121.90829326.3547627911714.7644625349850.509345986887761633151217.5WETL
2023-11-27 23:00:03FORECAST20246414436.78826.79831.79341.9786207559962.681103815.371103811.817.18110381TT4.788119.78829324.0955965929113.6050861380620.649201972179631633151217.5WETL
2023-11-27 19:00:04FORECAST20246414434.48426.31230.39849.7255805350552.63779675.42779671.767.1877967TT2.484112.48429329.4306600081916.3811308149540.537992033003731633151217.5WETL
2023-11-27 15:00:03FORECAST20246414436.35628.34632.35148.4612266334632.779529065.579529061.747.31952906TT4.356123.35629328.5670958459815.9227644960910.62899985230151633151217.5WETL
2023-11-27 11:00:03FORECAST20246414435.7829.46232.62150.5961119683082.590552585.820552581.647.46055258TT3.78118.7829330.0236301319916.6979125423460.601510127572111633151217.5WETL
2023-11-27 07:00:06FORECAST20246414435.81629.28232.54948.2903961702122.582678565.772678561.647.41267856TT3.816128.81629328.4502044151215.8609904933930.60324465970221633151217.5WETL
2023-11-27 03:00:06FORECAST20246414434.86226.00630.43444.2355015167771.570866994.360866991.686.04086699TT2.862125.86229325.6606838747614.4057636754970.556693673119341633151217.5WETL
2023-11-26 23:00:04FORECAST20246414435.92427.15831.54142.6962407377361.090551773.920551771.585.50055177TT3.924115.92429324.5942202983613.8589529719370.608435886677591633151217.5WETL
2023-11-26 19:00:03FORECAST20246414433.51224.67429.09344.493753240911.200788054.050788051.575.62078805TT1.512115.51229325.8392032504614.4978091056410.489614840706331623151215WETL
2023-11-26 15:00:03FORECAST20246414430.72222.94626.83451.3439290886551.960630984.940630981.556.49063098TT-1.278102.72229330.5319664382916.9708098463410.354004818543841623151215WETL
2023-11-26 11:00:04FORECAST20246414437.11231.89234.50250.1210891848492.633859696.083859691.527.60385969TT5.112127.11229329.7002267265116.5249344680250.664085144807961633151217.5WETL
2023-11-26 07:00:07FORECAST20246414434.21428.20231.20853.6877414158152.688977836.068977831.517.57897783TT2.214115.21429332.1189555055117.830716602470.524579632481291633151217.5WETL
2023-11-26 03:00:05FORECAST20246414434.9726.52830.74946.135866440121.196851044.476851041.646.11685104TT2.97115.9729326.9715967688215.0851179182390.562015733658251633151217.5WETL
2023-11-25 23:00:03FORECAST20246414436.53628.43632.48641.3170709070191.45669373.25669371.684.9366937TF4.536112.53629323.635126263913.3716554598480.637464391561871633151217.5WETL
2023-11-25 19:00:03FORECAST20246414432.95424.85428.90441.5581979497451.314961343.014961341.674.68496134TF0.954104.95429323.8030518365213.4566713249530.461866088109291623151215WETL
2023-11-25 15:00:03FORECAST20246414431.7324.78228.25638.2363206427931.440945662.960945661.714.67094566TF-0.27103.7329321.4805557682312.2922336107770.401826728388791623151215WETL
2023-11-25 11:00:03FORECAST20246414430.8324.1727.535.579485775070.582677482.082677481.713.79267748TF-1.17103.8329319.6088693874711.3715192219580.35903469636681623151215DRYL
2023-11-25 07:00:05FORECAST20246414432.30624.85428.5833.8810412608130.606299542.036299541.73.73629954TF0.306117.30629318.4057144265410.7879171481640.429882130942861623151215DRYL
2023-11-25 03:00:06FORECAST20246414430.93823.34227.1429.851913439730.728346851.378346851.693.06834685TF-1.062125.93829315.530687797479.41919477970850.364089120039481623142224DRYL
2023-11-24 23:00:03FORECAST20246414430.50626.61828.56246.7854656382322.377954043.227954041.684.90795404TF-1.494111.50629327.4182551569915.3184155259770.344021848765391623151215WETL
2023-11-24 19:00:03FORECAST20246414429.42624.8927.15850.1616312565252.496064343.496064341.685.17606434TT-2.574104.42629329.7278436755916.5396865094640.295834636873161623151215WETL
2023-11-24 15:00:03FORECAST20246414433.49427.28430.38954.8528350749843.015749664.545749661.686.22574966TT1.494113.49429332.9043287564818.2607462410270.488718209161141623151215WETL
2023-11-24 11:00:04FORECAST2024641443226.92429.46241.9756385645631.283465262.673465261.694.36346526TF010929324.093522580713.6040325649640.414924089466391623151215WETL
2023-11-24 07:00:06FORECAST20246414432.41426.67229.54339.5531849840291.366142472.356142471.674.02614247TF0.414111.41429322.4035887606412.7520887857640.435186727325161623151215WETL
2023-11-24 03:00:05FORECAST20246414433.3525.35829.35447.4143793163841.846457693.316457691.574.88645769TF1.35112.3529327.8499887900515.5448037273640.481547589586921623151215WETL
2023-11-23 23:00:04FORECAST20246414427.89625.9726.93337.4096157164820.346456881.966456881.493.45645688TF-4.104100.89629320.8995119516212.0047274257170.233442660832551613151212.5DRYL
2023-11-23 19:00:04FORECAST20246414429.80426.02427.91436.9937243711430.338582861.898582861.493.38858286TF-2.19699.80429320.6067439957711.8604375189090.312349961280021623151215DRYL
2023-11-23 15:00:04FORECAST20246414432.70232.05432.37826.9698412026620.129921330.679921331.492.16992133FF0.702117.70229313.45602909238.45385932863620.449386898150321623132218DRYL
2023-11-23 11:00:03FORECAST20246414432.64830.95631.80224.43263159162800.591.492.08FF0.648139.64829311.617006955587.61362352863140.446718859837461623132218DRYL
2023-11-23 07:00:07FORECAST20246414423.93622.69423.31525.8185845135800.541.492.03FF-8.064108.93629312.623042998828.07148445655760.110747614198671613132215DRYL
2023-11-23 03:00:08FORECAST20246414420.9320.49820.71430.6221420442060.110236280.940236281.572.51023628FF-11.07112.9329316.082569636039.67912534509230.0549203524787491613132215DRYL