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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, December 29, 2023

[ Thursday, December 28, 2023 | Index | Today | Saturday, December 30, 2023 ]

DAY 90 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/30/2023 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 43.93°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 35.93°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 39.93°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.879
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 12
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 164

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.28 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.23 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.51 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 59 in
SWE DAY: 3
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 308.73 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 18.33 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 170

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-12-30 07:00:04OBSERVATION20249017043.9300435.9299439.9299959.37816208333300.283.233.51FF11.93004163.930043308.7287247987 18.3317442608780.8787490614285216 5112127DRYL
2023-12-30 03:00:03OBSERVATION20249017043.9300435.9299439.9299959.37816208333300.283.233.51FF11.93004163.930043308.7287247987 18.3317442608780.8787490614285216 5112127DRYL
2023-12-29 11:00:01FORECAST20249017037.02233.31435.16859.6563482649290.0015748040.2815748043.233.511574804FF5.022157.0223308.9329789982218.429813385640.67619141001415163112125DRYL
2023-12-29 07:00:04FORECAST20249017036.80633.8935.34859.5374871500.283.233.51FF4.806156.8063308.8457245940918.3878983593530.66815765124911163112125DRYL
2023-12-29 03:00:04FORECAST20249017036.44633.60235.02459.5800943500.283.233.51FF4.446156.4463308.8770050164818.4029211014270.65459628600797163112125DRYL
2023-12-28 23:00:01FORECAST20249017037.92233.15235.53759.5522800.253.233.48FF5.922155.9223308.8565852688518.3931138457750.70875725484342164112126DRYL
2023-12-28 19:00:01FORECAST20249017037.79632.9935.39359.611221600.253.233.48FF5.796155.7963308.8998552003518.4138977205560.70429088748286164112126DRYL
2023-12-28 15:00:01FORECAST20249017037.2232.7234.9759.6744254151350.011811030.261811033.233.49181103FF5.22155.223308.9462468922318.4361897674560.68348443143495163112125DRYL
2023-12-28 11:00:02FORECAST20249017036.73433.15234.94360.07878752831400.253.233.48FF4.734154.7343309.2428730903218.5789368670390.6654622329884163112125DRYL
2023-12-28 07:00:08FORECAST20249017038.35434.01636.18559.98710134160300.343.233.57TF6.354156.3543309.175641949218.5465505659620.7238266149561164112126DRYL
2023-12-28 03:00:05FORECAST20249017036.82432.73834.78160.45715261078200.443.233.67TF4.824154.8243309.5201529846118.7127071251030.6688301557713163112125DRYL
2023-12-27 23:00:03FORECAST20249017036.84232.14434.49360.41378101916400.573.233.8TF4.842148.8423309.4883822025418.697363350360.6695021165319163113127.5DRYL
2023-12-27 19:00:02FORECAST20249017037.00432.05434.52960.41516394421700.563.233.79TF5.004149.0043309.4893952839518.6978525550770.67552498845877163113127.5DRYL
2023-12-27 15:00:02FORECAST20249017037.14832.93635.04259.93495077347900.473.233.7TF5.148150.1483309.1373942822418.5281345085470.68084046932019163112125DRYL
2023-12-27 11:00:02FORECAST20249017038.51633.42235.96960.53645270217600.443.233.67TF6.516152.5163309.5782332475718.7407680746150.72937740240231164112126DRYL
2023-12-27 07:00:04FORECAST20249017036.87831.133.98960.54193983009800.43.233.63TF4.878149.8783309.5822516479518.7427100517360.67084439932155163112125DRYL
2023-12-27 03:00:07FORECAST20249017036.87830.70433.79160.92019467135200.493.233.72TF4.878149.8783309.8591248849818.8766782086870.67084439932155163112125DRYL
2023-12-26 23:00:02FORECAST20249017036.37431.53233.95362.98877771857200.423.223.64TF4.374147.3743311.3685805574619.6127263092810.65185934922139163112125DRYL
2023-12-26 19:00:02FORECAST20249017037.29232.25234.77263.05329346197900.493.223.71TF5.292149.2923311.4155306108419.6357748402230.68611905756508163112125DRYL
2023-12-26 15:00:03FORECAST20249017035.88831.71233.862.71428522915300.313.223.53FF3.888145.8883311.1687380639219.5147249933360.63318415126452163112125DRYL
2023-12-26 11:00:03FORECAST20249017036.57231.69434.13363.22123728623300.393.223.61TF4.572147.5723311.5377123243619.6957996344680.6593664673386163112125DRYL
2023-12-26 07:00:05FORECAST20249017036.26631.11833.69262.93468700454100.383.223.6TF4.266147.2663311.329211182819.593406461160.64773911875681163112125DRYL
2023-12-26 03:00:07FORECAST20249017035.67230.6533.16163.47155334893400.413.313.72TF3.672145.6723311.7197244004419.7853351171970.62477867286331163112125DRYL
2023-12-25 23:00:03FORECAST20249017036.69831.06433.88167.31019311173600.552.933.48TF4.698144.6983314.4964647747221.1688177769450.66411131011213163113127.5DRYL
2023-12-25 19:00:03FORECAST20249017036.9531.22634.08867.14811963994100.472.943.41FF4.95144.953314.3797729823321.1100106085950.67352235814408163112125DRYL
2023-12-25 15:00:02FORECAST20249017036.96831.35234.1666.30956703468800.262.963.22FF4.968145.9683313.7752529926520.8063011721420.67419046070607163112125DRYL
2023-12-25 11:00:03FORECAST20249017037.27431.15434.21469.85032817791500.262.983.24FF5.274145.2743316.3190822147222.0949917016350.68546128237872163112125DRYL
2023-12-25 07:00:05FORECAST20249017036.6831.56834.12469.95959698711500.32.893.19FF4.68144.683316.3972221200522.1350221473610.66343505186323163112125DRYL
2023-12-25 03:00:07FORECAST20249017036.8631.67634.26871.3105703476730.1027559610.6027559612.963.562755961TF4.86143.863317.3615356609522.6312321143960.67017353166789163113127.5DRYL
2023-12-24 23:00:03FORECAST20249017035.97828.59832.28865.55281244092200.42.592.99FF3.978139.9783313.2285955032420.5330153721570.63666794541216163112125DRYL
2023-12-24 19:00:03FORECAST20249017036.4130.21833.31464.97309295511400.392.542.93FF4.41143.413312.8091116536620.324175488680.65322881659303163112125DRYL
2023-12-24 15:00:02FORECAST20249017036.28430.05633.1764.3518225952620.0724409840.3524409842.412.762440984FF4.284145.2843312.3588754669920.1008629401080.64842704426811163112125DRYL
2023-12-24 11:00:02FORECAST20249017035.00628.47231.73965.3164816736890.0673228710.4773228712.462.937322871FF3.006141.0063313.0576616112220.4478250174370.59850293646844163112125DRYL
2023-12-24 07:00:04FORECAST20249017035.67228.88632.27965.2305937891320.0889764260.4389764262.683.118976426FF3.672141.6723312.9955149877320.4168832959850.62477867286331163112125DRYL
2023-12-24 03:00:05FORECAST20249017035.92430.66833.29665.31801602899700.332.723.05FF3.924141.9243313.0587717144120.448377868860.63457900371434163112125DRYL
2023-12-23 23:00:02FORECAST20249017033.38627.93230.65964.9838554668940.1440945660.8040945662.933.734094566TF1.386138.3863312.8169050140120.3280485430320.53293687417257163113127.5DRYL
2023-12-23 19:00:03FORECAST20249017034.57426.52830.55164.8149761690480.1035433630.9235433632.933.853543363TF2.574143.5743312.6945914148820.2672924907460.58120954671818163113127.5DRYL
2023-12-23 15:00:02FORECAST20249017032.73826.9629.84964.608703317200.782.843.62TF0.738135.7383312.5451237249720.1931351719840.50635359882113163113127.5DRYL
2023-12-23 11:00:02FORECAST20249017032.48622.96427.72563.07067461503600.672.453.12FF0.486132.4863311.428178084919.6419852859460.49600151244127162113126DRYL
2023-12-23 08:13:19FORECAST20249017030.5623.39626.97863.00383840140600.742.43.14FF-1.44134.563311.3795413592419.6181063053010.41747682695464162113126DRYL
2023-12-23 07:00:05FORECAST20249017032.21624.04428.136.188887397102300.682.323FF0.216140.2163266.89948938331.65181088613740.484913162669471621134224DRYL
2023-12-23 03:00:04FORECAST20249017033.2623.75628.5089.751093243437200.952.743.69TF1.26132.263269.88087481512.63163357494240.527775691975041631133222.5DRYL
2023-12-22 23:00:04FORECAST20249017031.24423.16227.20358.75156008657700.162.452.61FF-0.756127.2443308.2681222975318.1112331099390.44515272325743162112124DRYL
2023-12-22 19:00:05FORECAST20249017030.36223.39626.87958.72892484066300.172.552.72FF-1.638128.3623308.2514698613318.103277405510.40953484627618162112124DRYL
2023-12-22 15:00:04FORECAST20249017033.92626.7830.35359.22219886255100.332.522.85FF1.926133.9263308.6141478936418.2768084383540.55498291419056163112125DRYL
2023-12-22 11:00:05FORECAST20249017031.92826.27629.10260.91677462405200.312.572.88FF-0.071999999999999133.9283309.8566226860318.8754660499350.47309864478241162112124DRYL
2023-12-22 07:00:15FORECAST20249017031.80224.8928.34661.92819630726400.312.763.07FF-0.198132.8023310.5956596090519.2346289804540.46793661141077162112124DRYL
2023-12-22 03:00:08FORECAST20249017031.78426.11428.94961.80276708375500.222.923.14FF-0.216136.7843310.5041126716219.1900133539920.46719959760259162112124DRYL
2023-12-21 23:00:04FORECAST20249017032.52226.00629.26462.53988174849100.213.113.32FF0.522138.5223311.0416923238819.4525106567860.49748037966517162112124DRYL
2023-12-21 19:00:03FORECAST20249017033.20626.74429.97563.46162817487700.253.053.3FF1.206136.2063311.7125097213219.7817833893920.52556227728888163112125DRYL
2023-12-21 15:00:03FORECAST20249017033.54828.61631.08268.5900198469510.0267716680.5267716683.954.476771668TF1.548132.5483315.4162458210121.6344065609140.53956443092719163113127.5WETL
2023-12-21 11:00:03FORECAST20249017035.18630.03832.61264.6612174526950.0251968640.4151968643.323.735196864TF3.186134.1863312.5831835047720.2120092006580.60565403153875163112125DRYL
2023-12-21 07:00:10FORECAST20249017032.1826.92429.55263.5531193765810.0251968640.4151968643.193.605196864TF0.18134.183311.7790084332719.8145285420720.48343540989224162112124DRYL
2023-12-21 03:00:10FORECAST20249017028.3119.32823.81962.12317882873900.442.573.01FF-3.69127.313310.7379134649219.3040269670510.32995076321846162112124DRYL
2023-12-20 23:00:04FORECAST20249017031.74823.3627.55467.72303843851800.283.133.41FF-0.252116.7483314.7934936470221.3187718704520.46572590979953162112124DRYL
2023-12-20 19:00:05FORECAST20249017032.03625.55628.79666.59561760147100.32.993.29FF0.036000000000001120.0363313.9816140899320.9097995058260.47752687646084162112124DRYL
2023-12-20 15:00:03FORECAST20249017034.12426.7830.45271.8182055133730.6921263581.0921263582.833.922126358TF2.124121.1243317.7230269807822.8182976480370.5630276863061631141210DRYL
2023-12-20 11:00:03FORECAST20249017038.35427.44632.977.2346429370220.8511815621.9811815623.125.101181562TF6.354139.3543321.5512378590124.8348950419980.72382661495611641151215WETL
2023-12-20 07:00:04FORECAST20249017038.35427.84233.09874.4792469992740.8968508781.9268508782.854.776850878TF6.354143.3543319.6103703492723.8043397167730.72382661495611641151215WETL
2023-12-20 03:00:07FORECAST20249017034.73626.8730.80365.6482729419460.3338584481.0438584481.792.833858448FF2.736124.7363313.2976113180320.5674470998660.587714889898111631141210DRYL
2023-12-19 23:00:03FORECAST20249017027.53625.59226.56462.6741285730330.0716535820.5016535822.743.241653582FF-4.464110.5363311.1394905838919.5003964370030.30161696577475162113126DRYL
2023-12-19 19:00:03FORECAST20249017027.93225.64626.78967.9370823136340.0799213030.5399213032.783.319921303FF-4.068106.9323314.9473687372521.3966053143650.31597812464168162113126DRYL
2023-12-19 15:00:03FORECAST20249017028.43622.69425.56568.1057862138670.0129921330.3529921333.113.462992133FF-3.564106.4363315.0685902029121.4579940470640.33466276290057162112124DRYL
2023-12-19 11:00:06FORECAST20249017026.18622.96424.57574.44260661953800.683.644.32TF-5.814105.1863319.5844696842723.790700958420.25501630927383162113126WETL
2023-12-19 07:00:07FORECAST20249017026.27622.96424.6272.3976454758200.693.474.16TF-5.724111.2763318.1350818460723.0322308689120.25800190798796162113126WETL
2023-12-19 03:00:05FORECAST20249017028.29227.6827.98670.2721416197100.522.873.39FF-3.708120.2923316.6206081823222.2496082179070.32927979403926162113126DRYL