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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, December 28, 2023

[ Wednesday, December 27, 2023 | Index | Today | Friday, December 29, 2023 ]

DAY 89 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/29/2023 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 37.37°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 32.20°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 34.78°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.703
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 5
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 157

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.20 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.41 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.10 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.51 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 60 in
SWE DAY: 4
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 310.25 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 18.60 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 169

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-12-29 07:00:04OBSERVATION20248916937.3699432.1999834.7849659.955588750.200000000000050.410000000000053.13.51FF5.36994157.369944310.24768921806 18.6010828653960.7026192919312616 4112126DRYL
2023-12-29 03:00:04OBSERVATION20248916937.3699432.1999834.7849659.955588750.200000000000050.410000000000053.13.51FF5.36994157.369944310.24768921806 18.6010828653960.7026192919312616 4112126DRYL
2023-12-28 11:00:02FORECAST20248916934.82629.33632.08160.4272219283140.1720473370.3820473373.13.482047337FF2.826154.8264310.5920754873118.7682162746470.59374314251124163112125DRYL
2023-12-28 07:00:08FORECAST20248916935.2429.7532.49560.4590277416030.2555119490.4655119493.13.565511949TF3.24155.244310.6152852277718.7794981465520.61223663901228163112125DRYL
2023-12-28 03:00:05FORECAST20248916934.91629.91232.41460.8048982107820.3578742090.5678742093.13.667874209TF2.916154.9164310.8675571793818.9022701713270.59778285199402163113127.5DRYL
2023-12-27 23:00:02FORECAST20248916935.1529.42632.28860.7141962191640.244094620.704094623.13.80409462TF3.15149.154310.8014221493618.8700585295710.60823633283888163113127.5DRYL
2023-12-27 19:00:01FORECAST20248916934.62828.16631.39760.7216799442170.2271654770.6871654773.13.787165477TF2.628148.6284310.8068794572118.8727158588620.58482116187584163113127.5DRYL
2023-12-27 15:00:01FORECAST20248916935.9628.4932.22560.3494115734790.137795350.597795353.13.69779535TF3.96149.964310.5352868255418.7406218327230.64377880736356163113127.5DRYL
2023-12-27 11:00:02FORECAST20248916937.16629.89433.5361.0443935021760.1149606920.5749606923.13.674960692TF5.166151.1664311.0421110949318.9873770254260.69438466329615163113127.5DRYL
2023-12-27 07:00:03FORECAST20248916936.08629.71432.960.8452086300980.0996063530.5296063533.13.629606353TF4.086150.0864310.8969444861418.9165894497190.64920584533339163113127.5DRYL
2023-12-27 03:00:06FORECAST20248916935.8730.52433.19761.1798722713520.1389764530.6189764533.13.718976453TF3.87149.874311.1408065230519.0355548014860.63988437484604163113127.5DRYL
2023-12-26 23:00:02FORECAST20248916935.630.25432.92763.2127361185720.1562992970.5362992973.13.636299297TF3.6147.64312.6176640729719.7614179050490.62811517700074163113127.5DRYL
2023-12-26 19:00:02FORECAST20248916936.3230.09233.20663.3973982619790.1736221410.6136221413.13.713622141TF4.32149.324312.7514420497519.8276277286370.65920361474332163113127.5DRYL
2023-12-26 15:00:03FORECAST20248916934.80830.0232.41462.9513308291530.1051181670.4251181673.13.525118167TF2.808146.8084312.4281824234819.6677698720910.59293398711999163112125DRYL
2023-12-26 11:00:03FORECAST20248916935.629.35432.47763.5157484862330.1251969180.5051969183.13.605196918TF3.6147.64312.8371475524419.8700855810910.62811517700074163113127.5DRYL
2023-12-26 07:00:05FORECAST20248916934.62829.46232.04563.1869846045410.129921330.499921333.13.59992133TF2.628147.6284312.5990034744119.7521884199330.58482116187584163113127.5DRYL
2023-12-26 03:00:06FORECAST20248916934.03428.70631.3763.6724861489340.1275591240.6175591243.13.717559124TF2.034147.0344312.9506123814419.9263435321580.55780966738424163113127.5DRYL
2023-12-25 23:00:02FORECAST20248916935.02429.7532.38767.5892555117360.0992126520.8392126522.643.479212652TF3.024145.0244315.7714034826621.3427540732890.60261671946564163113127.5DRYL
2023-12-25 19:00:02FORECAST20248916935.25829.35432.30667.4438116399410.0992126520.7692126522.643.409212652TF3.258145.2584315.6671581847421.2897963575270.61303528813488163113127.5DRYL
2023-12-25 15:00:02FORECAST20248916935.0630.16432.61266.6498342346880.110236280.580236282.643.22023628FF3.06146.064315.0974041570921.0011897548510.60422455335764163113127.5DRYL
2023-12-25 11:00:02FORECAST20248916934.9729.53432.25270.1882337779150.1216536090.6016536092.643.241653609FF2.97144.974317.6277146807322.2937282923560.60020170479721163113127.5DRYL
2023-12-25 07:00:04FORECAST20248916933.92629.73231.82970.2752641871150.1303150310.6203150312.573.190315031FF1.926144.9264317.6896640509622.3257250706970.55286561743528163113127.5DRYL
2023-12-25 03:00:07FORECAST20248916933.20628.95831.08271.2205482886980.1334646390.8434646392.623.463464639TF1.206144.2064318.3616480782522.6738911302270.51973200348445163113127.5DRYL
2023-12-24 23:00:02FORECAST20248916932.97228.20230.58765.7147788409220.2106300350.7506300352.242.990630035FF0.972140.9724314.4249382309920.662365277920.50892290936939163113127.5DRYL
2023-12-24 19:00:02FORECAST20248916934.3429.31831.82965.2003969551140.208661530.738661532.192.92866153FF2.34144.344314.0543275070920.4764668189340.5717664992649163113127.5DRYL
2023-12-24 15:00:02FORECAST20248916936.0529.62432.83764.2898010862450.1200788050.6200788052.072.690078805FF4.05146.054313.3970572056320.1482344687640.64765830760722163113127.5DRYL
2023-12-24 11:00:02FORECAST20248916932.70228.41830.5665.1256449778320.1578741010.7778741012.092.867874101FF0.702142.7024314.000428606220.4494804362940.49644323650018162113126DRYL
2023-12-24 07:00:03FORECAST20248916932.8128.86830.83965.2436884270140.1629922140.7729922142.263.032992214FF0.81142.814314.0855375573920.4920989518250.50143537191387163113127.5DRYL
2023-12-24 03:00:05FORECAST20248916933.54829.64231.59565.4994656289970.1700788320.6700788322.383.050078832FF1.548142.5484314.2698645781420.5845081931650.53550165659875163113127.5DRYL
2023-12-23 23:00:02FORECAST20248916932.55828.3130.43464.3291813631230.2590552581.1790552582.413.589055258TF0.558141.5584313.4255134462620.1624066983140.48978805733014162114128DRYL
2023-12-23 19:00:02FORECAST20248916933.1728.38230.77664.3982739219770.3055119761.3455119762.43.745511976TF1.17146.174313.4754329441420.1872767985470.518069810762771631141210DRYL
2023-12-23 15:00:02FORECAST20248916932.43228.02230.22764.61755931720.283464721.343464722.283.62346472TF0.432140.4324313.6338090236420.2662512584640.48396704361798162114128DRYL
2023-12-23 11:00:02FORECAST20248916931.5524.3527.9563.0733314150360.165354420.805354422.313.11535442FF-0.45136.554312.5166311501119.7114650492420.44338459067716162113126DRYL
2023-12-23 08:13:19FORECAST20248916933.31425.19629.25563.0038384014060.1933071910.8833071912.263.143307191FF1.314141.3144312.466253042219.6865733125640.5247164081563163113127.5DRYL
2023-12-23 07:00:05FORECAST20248916933.24225.1629.2016.19006819710230.1720473370.8120473372.193.002047337FF1.242145.2424268.155893504751.65990326824930.521393853178151631134230DRYL
2023-12-23 03:00:04FORECAST20248916930.1123.4526.789.76860844343720.5885829951.3885829952.33.688582995TF-1.89136.114271.139519632012.64865580082680.378568941902841621143224DRYL
2023-12-22 23:00:03FORECAST20248916929.89423.30626.658.7515600865770.0783464990.5883464992.022.608346499FF-2.106132.8944309.366634936918.1757724412780.36908837106769162113126DRYL
2023-12-22 19:00:05FORECAST20248916931.04623.48627.26658.7289248406630.0811024060.6611024062.062.721102406FF-0.954135.0464309.3500456598918.1677955810150.42043133109784162113126DRYL
2023-12-22 15:00:03FORECAST20248916930.93826.92428.93159.2623460625510.2177166530.8677166531.982.847716653FF-1.062136.9384309.7407343498618.355962588710.41554503237634162113126DRYL
2023-12-22 11:00:05FORECAST20248916932.928.52630.71360.9167746240520.2429135170.8529135172.032.882913517FF0.9138.94310.9491104783918.9420168825620.50559534624379163113127.5DRYL
2023-12-22 07:00:15FORECAST20248916932.32428.09430.20961.9281963072640.2287402810.8487402812.223.068740281FF0.324138.3244311.685344390219.3021111934930.47898027455347162113126DRYL
2023-12-22 03:00:07FORECAST20248916933.74627.75230.74961.8027670837550.1637796160.8837796162.263.143779616FF1.746141.7464311.59414467119.2573803477630.54460762481296163113127.5DRYL
2023-12-21 23:00:04FORECAST20248916933.24225.98829.61562.5432273484910.1212599080.9412599082.383.321259908TF1.242143.2424312.1321138125119.5217497569410.52139385317815163113127.5DRYL
2023-12-21 19:00:03FORECAST20248916930.84824.63827.74363.4765849748770.1322835361.1622835362.143.302283536TF-1.152139.8484312.8087894238619.8560337027520.41148303376175162114128DRYL
2023-12-21 15:00:03FORECAST20248916931.47825.8828.67968.4424496007170.3311025411.7011025412.754.451102541TF-0.522136.4784316.3821460148421.6539690831870.440092029592751621151210WETL
2023-12-21 11:00:03FORECAST20248916933.69230.5632.12664.6072034077660.2149607461.3449607462.373.714960746TF1.692135.6924313.6263315845820.2625201987160.542126298213781631141210DRYL
2023-12-21 07:00:10FORECAST20248916931.29827.10429.20163.382872643470.2118111381.3918111382.193.581811138TF-0.702139.2984312.7409212793819.8224179838520.43187921620053162114128DRYL
2023-12-21 03:00:09FORECAST20248916929.67821.0225.34962.1231788287390.429134091.059134091.953.00913409FF-2.322135.6784311.8270587071919.3716881317070.35968674600264162114128DRYL
2023-12-20 23:00:04FORECAST20248916928.29222.83825.56567.7230384385180.2425198161.0325198162.383.412519816TF-3.708122.2924315.8672569288321.391490382460.30156918360099162114128DRYL
2023-12-20 19:00:04FORECAST20248916929.85825.86227.8666.5959128014710.2437009191.0737009192.223.293700919TF-2.142124.8584315.0586687364820.9816196305220.36751580968286162114128DRYL
2023-12-20 15:00:03FORECAST20248916929.87627.89628.88666.5576265049420.1720473371.0720473372.163.232047337TF-2.124123.8764315.0311618734420.967726409390.36830181470027162114128DRYL
2023-12-20 11:00:03FORECAST20248916930.66827.64429.15671.014627701570.4653545821.7653545822.484.245354582TF-1.332137.6684318.2154005731222.5979482006060.403387845877871621151210WETL
2023-12-20 07:00:04FORECAST20248916930.72227.69829.2167.8999466440630.4366144091.5266144092.353.876614409TF-1.278141.7224315.9939589825721.4559729547630.405812228818711621151210DRYL
2023-12-20 03:00:07FORECAST20248916931.38827.57229.4863.2136025223760.3106300890.7106300891.792.500630089FF-0.612127.3884312.6182918833219.7617284443360.43598217263437162113126DRYL
2023-12-19 23:00:03FORECAST20248916931.08225.12428.10361.9621335394950.110236281.040236282.133.17023628FF-0.918120.0824311.7100151932819.3142175870040.42206286492204162114128DRYL
2023-12-19 19:00:03FORECAST20248916930.97425.73628.35567.1466783206560.1192914031.0992914032.143.239291403TF-1.026115.9744315.4540714005821.1816930572760.41717238767819162114128DRYL
2023-12-19 15:00:03FORECAST20248916932.84626.58229.71467.96290758011601.042.413.45TF0.846114.8464316.0390380112221.4789319320650.503099405707841631141210DRYL
2023-12-19 11:00:05FORECAST20248916929.58825.9727.77974.4426066195380.248031631.558031632.764.31803163TF-2.412115.5884320.6400618042223.8692819873560.355793937286441621151210WETL
2023-12-19 07:00:07FORECAST20248916930.30825.89828.10372.397645475820.2570867531.5570867532.64.157086753TF-1.692122.3084319.1961711884623.1090512389410.38732427850551621151210WETL
2023-12-19 03:00:05FORECAST20248916933.31426.97830.14670.272141619710.5177168151.4877168151.93.387716815TF1.314129.3144317.6874416039722.3245768871980.52471640815631631141210DRYL
2023-12-18 23:00:03FORECAST20248916934.10632.57633.34168.1248033661590.1114173831.3914173832.273.661417383TF2.106110.1064316.154919722521.5379917393390.561100754220471631141210DRYL
2023-12-18 19:00:03FORECAST20248916933.02631.71232.36972.2052412240720.1283465261.3083465262.513.818346526TF1.026114.0264319.0599334448423.0377994593210.511418186919821631141210DRYL
2023-12-18 15:00:05FORECAST20248916934.03431.80232.91862.5991664979660.0452756150.4152756151.521.935275615FF2.034119.0344312.1727143838219.5417517238350.55780966738424163112125DRYL
2023-12-18 11:00:03FORECAST20248916926.92425.05225.98865.8596119422510.2330709920.9230709921.212.133070992FF-5.076105.9244314.5292027453620.7147712373150.24875389309922161113124.5DRYL
2023-12-18 07:00:06FORECAST20248916926.92425.05225.98862.5309564374820.2330709920.4530709921.291.743070992FF-5.07698.9244312.1232068276619.5173626492680.24875389309922161112123DRYL
2023-12-18 03:00:06FORECAST20248916923.50422.22622.86580.13768541843201.912.694.6TF-8.496110.5044324.6218964336126.0144474163310.14121447967906161115127.5WETL