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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, December 27, 2023

[ Tuesday, December 26, 2023 | Index | Today | Thursday, December 28, 2023 ]

DAY 88 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/28/2023 07:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 39.13°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 33.47°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 36.30°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.797
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 7
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 156

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.08 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.80 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.38 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.18 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 60 in
SWE DAY: 5
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 311.23 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 18.61 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 168

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 15.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-12-28 07:00:07OBSERVATION20248816839.1299833.4700636.3000259.7997491666670.0800000000000411.83.385.18TF7.12998156.129985311.22524103468 18.6111913482090.7969364596028716 41151215WETL
2023-12-28 03:00:04OBSERVATION20248816839.1299833.4700636.3000259.7997491666670.0800000000000411.83.385.18TF7.12998156.129985311.22524103468 18.6111913482090.7969364596028716 41151215WETL
2023-12-27 11:00:01FORECAST20248816833.49430.43431.96460.8758544332080.3287403352.0487403353.385.428740335TF1.494150.4945312.0077413740218.9937378459190.567505278770321631151212.5WETL
2023-12-27 07:00:03FORECAST20248816833.24229.2131.22660.6431823750230.3019686672.0219686673.385.401968667TF1.242150.2425311.8387328218118.9108931461090.55586259770661631151212.5WETL
2023-12-27 03:00:06FORECAST20248816832.66630.00231.33460.83868227260.3531497972.0731497973.385.453149797TF0.666149.6665311.9807469279618.9804975375190.529085138922611631151212.5WETL
2023-12-26 23:00:01FORECAST20248816833.13430.39831.76662.7800144014380.2582678561.9682678563.385.348267856TF1.134148.1345313.3871397781619.6744491484980.550857475878741631151212.5WETL
2023-12-26 19:00:01FORECAST20248816833.81830.77632.29762.9344358678290.3173230062.0273230063.385.407323006TF1.818148.8185313.4987125240419.7298646179910.582387381024481631151212.5WETL
2023-12-26 15:00:02FORECAST20248816832.73830.41631.57762.6538054888890.204724521.914724523.385.29472452TF0.738147.7385313.2959186884519.6291815499690.532442045777531631151212.5WETL
2023-12-26 11:00:02FORECAST20248816833.3529.82231.58663.1713224827520.2610237631.9710237633.385.351023763TF1.35148.355313.66978303319.8149350170730.560858826636041631151212.5WETL
2023-12-26 07:00:05FORECAST20248816833.90830.12832.01862.7958995772690.2472442281.9572442283.385.337244228TF1.908148.9085313.3986191700719.6801482170580.586501394474341631151212.5WETL
2023-12-26 03:00:06FORECAST20248816833.42230.03831.7363.2413250666860.2811025142.0811025143.385.461102514TF1.422149.4225313.7203165383119.8400885182230.564184318463631631151212.5WETL
2023-12-25 23:00:02FORECAST20248816834.0730.21832.14467.296323867880.4460632331.8660632333.385.246063233TF2.07146.075316.6322593520421.3081870723730.593882455757441631151212.5WETL
2023-12-25 19:00:02FORECAST20248816833.5330.48832.00967.1522746623790.3692915381.7992915383.385.179291538TF1.53145.535316.5293288806121.2556644316890.569163987700421631151212.5WETL
2023-12-25 15:00:02FORECAST20248816834.21431.83833.02666.3500659937790.1488189781.5988189783.384.978818978TF2.214147.2145315.9554206803120.9636630132310.600415595662631631151212.5WETL
2023-12-25 11:00:02FORECAST20248816834.37630.77632.57669.818719689740.1366142471.6066142473.384.986614247TF2.376146.3765318.4285490738622.2322736089980.60773183643971631151212.5WETL
2023-12-25 07:00:04FORECAST20248816833.20630.4731.83869.8292124770250.1657481211.5457481213.384.925748121TF1.206147.2065318.435997358222.2361349198590.554195173059771631151212.5WETL
2023-12-25 03:00:06FORECAST20248816833.42230.4731.94670.7244982811270.3708663421.8208663423.385.200866342TF1.422147.4225319.0707837163122.5661210945020.564184318463631631151212.5WETL
2023-12-24 23:00:02FORECAST20248816833.74629.80431.77564.862806341560.1870079751.4970079753.154.647007975TF1.746143.7465314.8883214067920.4245402106280.579089643291941631141210WETL
2023-12-24 19:00:02FORECAST20248816833.63830.1131.87464.4349810451940.1791339551.4391339553.154.589133955TF1.638145.6385314.5806121765320.269995782780.574132685978571631141210WETL
2023-12-24 15:00:02FORECAST20248816833.74630.66832.20763.9286223467770.1594489051.2894489053.154.439448905TF1.746145.7465314.2159862041520.0873951173650.579089643291941631141210WETL
2023-12-24 11:00:02FORECAST20248816834.50230.88432.69364.4941720929810.2488190321.4288190323.154.578819032TF2.502145.5025314.6232047020720.2913631085010.613396184876851631141210WETL
2023-12-24 07:00:03FORECAST20248816834.86230.3832.62164.6093665102760.1925197891.5725197893.174.742519789TF2.862145.8625314.7060776170620.3329603117720.629443702565291631151212.5WETL
2023-12-24 03:00:05FORECAST20248816834.64630.30832.47764.8557695800380.1610237091.5410237093.214.751023709TF2.646144.6465314.8832629879320.4219963489560.619840211366561631151212.5WETL
2023-12-23 23:00:02FORECAST20248816835.1531.1933.1763.1924628989610.3992128141.9692128143.235.199212814TF3.15145.155313.6850448357619.8225305577430.642123038984191631151212.5WETL
2023-12-23 19:00:02FORECAST20248816835.63632.05433.84563.1507202737320.5145672072.1145672073.25.314567207TF3.636148.6365313.6549089871719.8075334199310.663161993922231631151212.5WETL
2023-12-23 15:00:02FORECAST20248816835.45630.7433.09863.346032647420.4952758582.0252758583.185.205275858TF3.456144.4565313.7958861372819.8777244478780.655424912395391631151212.5WETL
2023-12-23 11:00:02FORECAST20248816833.5329.53431.53262.3182650313990.4980317651.6680317653.154.818031765TF1.53140.535313.0532549888519.5089357133370.569163987700421631151212.5WETL
2023-12-23 08:13:19FORECAST20248816833.8930.12832.00962.1513184614310.5452758851.6552758853.164.815275885TF1.89143.895312.9324417404819.4491638435260.585679335673151631151212.5WETL
2023-12-23 07:00:04FORECAST20248816835.04230.66832.8555.44561124995780.5129924031.5329924033.174.702992403TF3.042148.0425268.784800662811.4636975343070.637385760479111631154250WETM
2023-12-23 03:00:04FORECAST20248816834.71829.42632.0726.8572447371380.3606301161.7906301163.184.970630116TF2.718141.7185269.962746302651.85120062130720.623049921431861631154250WETM
2023-12-22 23:00:03FORECAST20248816835.76230.23632.99958.3380403356370.0842520141.3042520143.14.404252014TF3.762138.7625310.1589137933418.0940632233330.668537422405991631141210WETL
2023-12-22 19:00:04FORECAST20248816836.26631.42433.84558.2853543319080.0889764261.4189764263.094.508976426TF4.266140.2665310.1204049997518.0754776909650.689685192061831631141210WETL
2023-12-22 15:00:03FORECAST20248816836.2330.50633.36858.214291892770.1133858881.4233858883.084.503385888TF4.23142.235310.0684564988918.0504156333670.688194175374161631141210WETL
2023-12-22 11:00:05FORECAST20248816837.00432.59434.79959.7607353460420.0673228711.4373228713.074.507322871TF5.004142.0045311.1968315619218.5973514914990.719538538066171641141212WETL
2023-12-22 07:00:14FORECAST20248816836.82432.93634.8860.7859462420170.0795276021.5995276023.114.709527602TF4.824141.8245311.9424456167518.9617167298630.712386483382141641151215WETL
2023-12-22 03:00:07FORECAST20248816836.3232.0934.20560.9938109770590.0582677481.6182677483.234.848267748TF4.32144.325312.0933846149719.0357649083960.691915882570191631151212.5WETL
2023-12-21 23:00:04FORECAST20248816840.71233.92637.31961.8922934764610.0858268181.7958268183.275.065826818TF8.712145.7125312.7448932085119.3564987137260.845250826191211641151215WETL
2023-12-21 19:00:02FORECAST20248816838.91230.97434.94362.7187332729330.122047311.792047313.255.04204731TF6.912144.9125313.3428507477219.6524666790270.789638634720321641151215WETL
2023-12-21 15:00:03FORECAST20248816837.79632.0934.94366.4740422790.1673229252.6173229253.375.987322925TT5.796140.7965316.0441909843221.0087349135240.749946076120541641151215WETL
2023-12-21 11:00:03FORECAST20248816837.92233.45835.6963.5481326729240.1822835631.9722835633.45.372283563TF5.922137.9225313.9416890308719.9504081060960.754617374439561641151215WETL
2023-12-21 07:00:09FORECAST20248816836.73432.10834.42162.1582752314890.1822835631.9022835633.345.242283563TF4.734143.7345312.9374771285819.4516538336060.70877845266871641151215WETL
2023-12-21 03:00:09FORECAST20248816836.46430.07433.26959.4314410085890.011811031.401811033.054.45181103TF4.464142.4645310.9569305344418.480618473270.697829690700641631141210WETL
2023-12-20 23:00:04FORECAST20248816835.92427.62631.77566.00668333330.043307111.853307113.195.04330711TF3.924129.9245315.7094036142820.8389306297130.675397905034971631151212.5WETL
2023-12-20 19:00:04FORECAST20248816837.1328.88633.00864.9630442792580.0594488511.7594488513.164.919448851TF5.13131.135314.9603682424820.4607843483480.724493266090421641151215WETL
2023-12-20 15:00:03FORECAST20248816835.99630.32633.16165.4320664690990.2314961881.4914961883.444.931496188TF3.996129.9965315.2972381561420.6305498445560.678428198523781631141210WETL
2023-12-20 11:00:03FORECAST20248816838.8429.6634.2567.9629920307720.6566932682.2366932683.415.646693268TT6.84142.845317.1081374370721.5516178175290.787194767725281641151215WETL
2023-12-20 07:00:04FORECAST20248816839.95629.6634.80865.0176517563540.5862207891.9662207893.345.306220789TF7.956146.9565314.9996100943720.4805349525030.823192059833571641151215WETL
2023-12-20 03:00:07FORECAST20248816836.33830.7433.53961.0535153220790.4047246280.9247246283.144.064724628TF4.338132.3385312.1367236265319.0570442385160.69265788025818163113127.5WETL
2023-12-19 23:00:02FORECAST20248816834.08827.57230.8360.9094783620720.3216537171.5416537173.394.931653717TF2.088125.0885312.0321568966619.0057159087670.594700569381741631151212.5WETL
2023-12-19 19:00:03FORECAST20248816832.28827.84230.06566.0209389282450.3433072721.5533072723.444.993307272TF0.288121.2885315.7196213281820.8441058381560.5114329922581631151212.5WETL
2023-12-19 15:00:02FORECAST20248816830.86627.08628.97667.9724523801160.338582861.728582863.595.31858286TF-1.134117.8665317.1148845843521.5550763914360.445111962349131621151210WETL
2023-12-19 11:00:05FORECAST20248816830.34426.56428.45472.5112701068110.4342522032.4942522033.455.944252203TT-1.656122.3445320.333355158923.2277784401480.421049877857831621151210WETL
2023-12-19 07:00:07FORECAST20248816831.56827.33829.45370.4668180794190.4346459042.4646459043.315.774645904TT-0.432127.5685318.8882281083122.4710387577770.477776740151141621151210WETL
2023-12-19 03:00:05FORECAST20248816834.28630.07432.1866.26482720438501.713.034.74TF2.286132.2865315.8943712306220.9326859244350.60367177808381631151212.5WETL
2023-12-18 23:00:03FORECAST20248816833.02628.83230.92967.25028375244702.143.285.42TF1.026112.0265316.5993654466521.2913971621320.54584424864411631151212.5WETL
2023-12-18 19:00:03FORECAST20248816834.2529.87632.06371.17157258722602.143.425.56TF2.25117.255319.3872337480322.7312916901310.602044575123371631151212.5WETL
2023-12-18 15:00:05FORECAST20248816834.37626.85230.61462.2880878468690.3338584480.8338584482.933.763858448TF2.376121.3765313.0314206351819.4981286273540.6077318364397163113127.5DRYL
2023-12-18 11:00:03FORECAST20248816831.44223.64827.54563.3649396657070.4385829141.0285829142.743.768582914TF-0.558115.4425313.8095295763319.8845219081280.471896387145162114128DRYL
2023-12-18 07:00:06FORECAST20248816828.36423.64826.00660.0362841609370.2153544470.2153544473.163.375354447FF-3.636108.3645311.3974231817518.6951441851230.33312461395005162112124DRYL
2023-12-18 03:00:06FORECAST20248816831.98223.84627.91480.1376854184321.2196856983.5596856982.916.469685698TT-0.018000000000001122.9825325.658382656126.097509023170.49712512008771621151210WETL
2023-12-17 23:00:05FORECAST20248816830.59618.73424.66578.2317379400120.1153543932.7553543933.446.195354393TT-1.404104.5965324.3372366427925.3734657012260.432635005219061621151210WETL
2023-12-17 19:00:03FORECAST20248816831.8218.73425.27778.3899499384610.1346457422.9246457423.526.444645742TT-0.18105.825324.4471480720825.4333956950470.489550692496511621151210WETL
2023-12-17 15:00:03FORECAST20248816830.61426.5128.56282.5354276660220.535433363.125433362.946.06543336TT-1.38696.6145327.3113676659327.0147837102580.433464857836511621151210WETL
2023-12-17 11:00:04FORECAST20248816823.23422.71222.97362.3158094503160.2385828061.4585828063.024.478582806TF-8.76681.2345313.0514783440419.5080562726270.15084611440129161114126WETL
2023-12-17 07:00:06FORECAST20248816823.23422.71222.97362.3092565124560.2385828060.4085828062.943.348582806FF-8.76678.2345313.0467371541419.5057094457250.15084611440129161112123DRYL
2023-12-17 03:00:09FORECAST20248816832.73831.51432.12669.8215373009790.2212599621.6412599623.044.681259962TF0.73885.7385318.4305491691322.2333104665840.532442045777531631151212.5WETL