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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, December 26, 2023

[ Monday, December 25, 2023 | Index | Today | Wednesday, December 27, 2023 ]

DAY 87 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/27/2023 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 34.34°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 27.06°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 30.70°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.567
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 2
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 149

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.13 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.97 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.72 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.69 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 60 in
SWE DAY: 6
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 312.31 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 18.67 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 167

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 12.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-12-27 07:00:03OBSERVATION20248716734.3427.0600830.7000459.7899066666670.131.975.727.69TT2.34149.346312.30539818471 18.672710608960.5667485694313416 31151212.5WETL
2023-12-27 03:00:05OBSERVATION20248716734.3427.0600830.7000459.7899066666670.131.975.727.69TT2.34149.346312.30539818471 18.672710608960.5667485694313416 31151212.5WETL
2023-12-26 11:00:01FORECAST20248716732.23424.02628.1362.3869695354610.1200788051.9600788055.727.680078805TT0.234147.2346314.1831342207319.6009336231850.473451790300491621151210WETL
2023-12-26 07:00:05FORECAST20248716732.28824.06228.17562.0785408652970.122047311.962047315.727.68204731TT0.288147.2886313.9607808396419.4902271634540.475847730626681621151210WETL
2023-12-26 03:00:06FORECAST20248716732.59424.58428.58962.349729525720.2066930252.0466930255.727.766693025TT0.594147.5946314.1562962795919.5875601018350.489438682834681621151210WETL
2023-12-25 23:00:02FORECAST20248716733.40425.64629.52565.8963407658770.2862206271.6662206275.727.386220627TT1.404144.4046316.7008923779820.8694299249970.525432086583781631151212.5WETL
2023-12-25 19:00:01FORECAST20248716733.38624.829.09365.9541144126240.2988190591.6788190595.727.398819059TT1.386144.3866316.7421539311320.8904482596750.524633398485651631151212.5WETL
2023-12-25 15:00:02FORECAST20248716733.60226.630.10165.9781266327260.3185041091.6985041095.727.418504109TT1.602144.6026316.7593015173720.8991853076070.53421020746741631151212.5WETL
2023-12-25 11:00:02FORECAST20248716733.20626.76229.98469.435751744730.3437009731.7237009735.727.443700973TT1.206144.2066319.2175720123222.1651120828030.516641601534551631151212.5WETL
2023-12-25 07:00:04FORECAST20248716733.51226.52830.0269.3244258784290.3157482021.6257482025.727.345748202TT1.512145.5126319.1387584805822.1241112072210.530221957118461631151212.5WETL
2023-12-25 03:00:06FORECAST20248716733.47626.92430.269.5477131662850.3370080561.6970080565.727.417008056TT1.476146.4766319.2968130136622.2063631663830.5286257850291631151212.5WETL
2023-12-24 23:00:02FORECAST20248716733.2626.74430.00264.2706626511670.3531497971.3331497975.727.053149797TT1.26142.266315.5373581281120.2797950980920.519039989353981631141210WETL
2023-12-24 19:00:02FORECAST20248716733.7126.67230.19163.9053622213490.3468505811.2768505815.726.996850581TT1.71143.716315.2752426694120.1477785822120.538991541557071631141210WETL
2023-12-24 15:00:02FORECAST20248716733.9828.29231.13663.4464225422470.3366143551.1466143555.726.866614355TT1.98143.986314.9455929720919.9821711695260.550918750012241631141210WETL
2023-12-24 11:00:02FORECAST20248716733.47626.630.03863.7156656222260.3720474451.2020474455.726.922047445TT1.476143.4766315.1390329506820.0792932479970.5286257850291631141210WETL
2023-12-24 07:00:03FORECAST20248716733.90827.06830.48864.0241002083350.4236222761.4236222765.727.143622276TT1.908142.9086315.3604678857220.1906701976630.547742204927431631141210WETL
2023-12-24 03:00:04FORECAST20248716734.1629.26431.71264.4213723851610.3448820761.4648820765.727.184882076TT2.16142.166315.645426630920.3343115706620.558845410711971631141210WETL
2023-12-23 23:00:02FORECAST20248716734.9727.60831.28961.8745643847540.5208664231.7108664235.687.390866423TT2.97141.976313.8136337410219.4170818857230.594180097975981631151212.5WETL
2023-12-23 19:00:02FORECAST20248716735.83428.5832.20761.5875040218870.5271656391.7071656395.687.387165639TT3.834144.8346313.6064213716119.3142367375130.631035848719761631151212.5WETL
2023-12-23 15:00:02FORECAST20248716734.7927.7731.2861.7087907973330.5641735331.6241735335.687.304173533TT2.79140.796313.6939897530319.357676788050.586383384955161631151212.5WETL
2023-12-23 11:00:02FORECAST20248716734.08826.88830.48860.4081927605010.1409449581.2309449585.686.910944958TT2.088139.0886312.753557281418.8928771747870.555677392110731631141210WETL
2023-12-23 08:13:19FORECAST20248716735.1527.78831.46960.1368232090030.1433071641.1833071645.686.863307164TT3.15142.156312.556944170418.7961816943220.601939637357361631141210WETL
2023-12-23 07:00:04FORECAST20248716736.527.91432.2073.67042587522130.1311024331.1011024335.686.781102433TT4.5144.56268.551384846850.98569795176840.658664160038911631144240WETH
2023-12-23 03:00:04FORECAST20248716734.30428.47231.3885.568314589670.4437010271.5237010275.687.203701027TT2.304139.3046270.135234427791.50419796704820.565169967055161631154250WETL
2023-12-22 23:00:03FORECAST20248716734.35827.78831.07358.1246348730840.4314962961.3114962965.66.911496296TT2.358135.3586311.0948344818418.082273665160.567537473102041631141210WETL
2023-12-22 19:00:04FORECAST20248716734.48427.62631.05558.2984415027110.4885829411.4085829415.67.008582941TT2.484136.4846311.2214220810618.1437238695830.573052091137871631141210WETL
2023-12-22 15:00:03FORECAST20248716735.22229.44432.33358.0529885714060.5370081641.3770081645.66.977008164TT3.222138.2226311.0426364677418.0569546200820.605032387181361631141210WETL
2023-12-22 11:00:04FORECAST20248716734.39429.331.84759.9293010141510.5397640711.4297640715.67.029764071TT2.394137.3946312.4064983796518.7223030801710.569114469995251631141210WETL
2023-12-22 07:00:13FORECAST20248716733.6229.1231.3760.9072819556780.5377955661.6277955665.597.217795566TT1.62136.626313.1148045707119.0709716864850.535007458333941631151212.5WETL
2023-12-22 03:00:07FORECAST20248716734.95228.92231.93761.1476166129020.6598428761.7398428765.647.379842876TT2.952139.9526313.2885986499219.1568511194390.593402050790281631151212.5WETL
2023-12-21 23:00:03FORECAST20248716737.32831.58634.45762.7259382764610.7291342521.9091342525.667.569134252TT5.328137.3286314.4273038109519.722747651280.691848987505661631151212.5WETL
2023-12-21 19:00:02FORECAST20248716737.11230.52433.81862.7636245557870.9145674231.8645674235.657.514567423TT5.112138.1126314.4544374115419.7363002495990.683327965820341631151212.5WETL
2023-12-21 15:00:02FORECAST20248716735.43830.90233.1766.3578757117011.1980321432.6980321435.718.408032143TT3.438135.4386317.0303485955421.037460468940.614270290050781631151212.5WETL
2023-12-21 11:00:02FORECAST20248716736.44630.4733.45863.7459882687920.9539375232.1139375235.677.783937523TT4.446132.4466315.1608102266320.090237311490.656453079267381631151212.5WETL
2023-12-21 07:00:09FORECAST20248716736.6831.15433.91761.7948324070660.9992131382.0292131385.627.649213138TT4.68138.686313.7560949646119.3885053050340.665994842212291631151212.5WETL
2023-12-21 03:00:08FORECAST20248716737.72431.04634.38559.7349066085890.6196853741.3896853745.647.029685374TT5.724137.7246312.2654977897318.6531503475540.707203154488241641141212WETL
2023-12-20 23:00:03FORECAST20248716735.52829.51632.52266.0470066590920.7523626111.9323626115.667.592362611TT3.528125.5286316.8084842608120.9242520696310.618100705492241631151212.5WETL
2023-12-20 19:00:04FORECAST20248716736.48230.07433.27865.0441828061770.7720476611.7720476615.687.452047661TT4.482126.4826316.0915830096620.5599187087740.657927733154521631151212.5WETL
2023-12-20 15:00:03FORECAST20248716735.43830.3832.90964.4843815195030.6712602051.5412602055.757.291260205TT3.438126.4386315.6905959417620.3571128308280.614270290050781631151212.5WETL
2023-12-20 11:00:03FORECAST20248716739.52431.15435.33964.931448241220.6433074341.8733074345.717.583307434TT7.524135.5246316.0108768000720.5190438906060.77212413450571641151215WETL
2023-12-20 07:00:04FORECAST20248716740.62232.52236.57262.7191391966580.5047246821.6847246825.637.314724682TT8.622138.6226314.4224082908319.7203027921410.807375978144481641151215WETL
2023-12-20 03:00:06FORECAST20248716736.5931.89234.24159.11662703676800.535.726.25TF4.59127.596311.8165763587118.433544248480.66233719542332163113127.5WETL
2023-12-19 23:00:02FORECAST20248716737.61632.16234.88960.6289183626310.6118113541.2218113545.987.201811354TT5.616122.6166312.9133778415418.971599639730.70305094000221641141212WETL
2023-12-19 19:00:03FORECAST20248716735.88830.6533.26963.9282212713240.6389767231.2089767236.037.238976723TT3.888120.8886315.29165194820.1560344907330.63330367204041631141210WETL
2023-12-19 15:00:02FORECAST20248716735.63630.90233.26965.8681269108280.6996066771.5596066776.017.569606677TT3.636118.6366316.6807400303120.8591671745310.622681962559131631151212.5WETL
2023-12-19 11:00:05FORECAST20248716734.19630.41632.30669.720566271240.8755910242.3755910245.728.095591024TT2.196124.1966319.4191060273622.270080950080.560428022226811631151212.5WETL
2023-12-19 07:00:06FORECAST20248716734.95231.58633.26967.8014887046390.8673233032.3573233035.577.927323303TT2.952127.9526318.0583490977821.5648295637690.593402050790281631151212.5WETL
2023-12-19 03:00:04FORECAST20248716736.44629.37232.90966.3153064043850.9716540681.8516540685.487.331654068TT4.446130.4466316.999977630321.0219506467360.656453079267381631151212.5WETL
2023-12-18 23:00:03FORECAST20248716734.30429.82232.06367.2647485524471.2814967552.2814967555.738.011496755TT2.304111.3046317.6765752011721.3684349519090.565169967055161631151212.5WETL
2023-12-18 19:00:02FORECAST20248716733.3530.79432.07271.2338597872261.1814967012.2414967015.918.151496701TT1.35115.356320.4874667091822.8295592671250.523035728507861631151212.5WETL
2023-12-18 15:00:05FORECAST20248716734.48428.27431.37959.8756066006450.0448819140.5248819145.56.024881914TF2.484119.4846312.3675590327918.7031970794510.57305209113787163113127.5WETL
2023-12-18 11:00:03FORECAST20248716735.16831.6433.40459.7408624529680.2523623410.5923623415.335.922362341TF3.168116.1686312.2698187914418.6552682926330.60271343363752163113127.5WETL
2023-12-18 07:00:05FORECAST20248716733.4428.77831.10958.014997152466005.755.75TF1.44112.446311.0149539116918.0435316655610.52702915299347163111122.5WETL
2023-12-18 03:00:05FORECAST20248716733.04430.81231.92869.7167442720560.6948822652.4448822655.47.844882265TT1.044123.0446319.4164025557122.2686716532770.509443171216131631151212.5WETL
2023-12-17 23:00:05FORECAST20248716735.5131.26233.38677.2181420422871.468504733.088504735.588.66850473TT3.51105.516324.6722732929725.0705897163290.617335533074711631151212.5WETL
2023-12-17 19:00:03FORECAST20248716737.09432.43234.76377.2591902890011.5811032163.2811032165.628.901103216TT5.094106.0946324.7007592265425.0861177440660.682613389392021631151212.5WETL
2023-12-17 15:00:03FORECAST20248716734.95226.1530.55177.5753311100021.9956703692.8656703695.258.115670369TT2.95297.9526324.9200495279325.2057804264080.593402050790281631151212.5WETL
2023-12-17 11:00:03FORECAST20248716730.95622.87426.91559.5122576165610.2133859421.3733859425.466.833385942TT-1.04489.9566312.1039176705918.574008751550.41721660073657162114128WETL
2023-12-17 07:00:06FORECAST20248716730.8322.87426.85259.5057046787020.1728347390.1728347395.535.702834739TF-1.1786.836312.0991607089218.5716804876160.41174399794925162112124WETL
2023-12-17 03:00:09FORECAST20248716735.74426.0630.90267.9166727622920.2570867531.6270867535.427.047086753TT3.74484.7446318.1402096963221.6070245144720.627246025563861631151212.5WETL
2023-12-16 23:00:03FORECAST20248716727.10417.97822.54163.0000422843290.0901575290.3201575295.545.860157529TF-4.89671.1046314.6245956687519.8213628308210.26163442918726162112124WETL
2023-12-16 19:00:03FORECAST20248716727.21222.08224.64762.151557637820.0901575290.2901575295.545.830157529TF-4.78879.2126314.0134360631619.5164241705290.2655665662014162112124WETL
2023-12-16 15:00:04FORECAST20248716733.18829.2131.19972.6367383646740.5200790210.9300790216.37.230079021TT1.18878.1886321.4742149136223.350838439670.51584200079727163113127.5WETL
2023-12-16 11:00:04FORECAST20248716722.53219.27420.90367.2971606794590.2779529060.3579529066.16.457952906TF-9.46871.5326317.6996441501421.3802840001790.12546045997716161112123WETL
2023-12-16 07:00:08FORECAST20248716722.53219.27420.90365.1661320062530.2779529060.3579529065.96.257952906TF-9.46889.5326316.1788599219120.6041533232580.12546045997716161112123WETL
2023-12-16 03:00:06FORECAST20248716727.24825.57426.41165.413024457640.0602362530.3602362535.936.290236253TF-4.75285.2486316.3554737883620.6937683442260.26688389926298162112124WETL