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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, December 25, 2023

[ Sunday, December 24, 2023 | Index | Today | Tuesday, December 26, 2023 ]

DAY 86 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/26/2023 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 37.02°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 26.14°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 31.58°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.643
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 5
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 140

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 1.59 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.88 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.12 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 8.00 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 62 in
SWE DAY: 7
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 314.76 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 19.42 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 166

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 12.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-12-26 07:00:04OBSERVATION20248616637.0200226.1399231.5799761.692791.58999999999991.87999999999996.127.9999999999999TT5.02002140.020027314.76041608899 19.4184482500910.6428293002804316 31151212.5WETL
2023-12-26 03:00:05OBSERVATION20248616637.0200226.1399231.5799761.692791.58999999999991.87999999999996.127.9999999999999TT5.02002140.020027314.76041608899 19.4184482500910.6428293002804316 31151212.5WETL
2023-12-25 11:00:02FORECAST20248616632.75623.86428.3168.371551109241.1255911591.4155911596.127.535591159TT0.756135.7567319.5230996336921.8462899371880.46527174778978162114128WETL
2023-12-25 07:00:04FORECAST20248616634.14225.35829.7568.4045646516461.0625989991.3525989996.127.472598999TT2.142137.1427319.5464417823221.8584352361020.52398062771641631141210WETL
2023-12-25 03:00:05FORECAST20248616634.6124.74629.67868.5503831455461.1145675311.4045675316.127.524567531TT2.61137.617319.6495189977721.9120969995860.543750531344011631141210WETL
2023-12-24 23:00:01FORECAST20248616634.08823.14428.61663.0616229306780.9629926461.0229926466.127.142992646TT2.088134.0887315.7431365178719.9112746180390.52169474779081631141210WETL
2023-12-24 19:00:02FORECAST20248616634.55624.04429.362.7732593158140.9078745060.9678745066.127.087874506TT2.556134.5567315.5363968308319.8072480618390.5414739722492163113127.5WETL
2023-12-24 15:00:01FORECAST20248616634.66424.58429.62462.3748771583840.7901579070.8501579076.126.970157907TT2.664134.6647315.2505311244219.6637131530010.5460256552018163113127.5WETL
2023-12-24 11:00:02FORECAST20248616634.5224.2629.3962.5400280099040.811024060.871024066.126.99102406TT2.52134.527315.3690729527119.723190655920.53995550542825163113127.5WETL
2023-12-24 07:00:03FORECAST20248616633.9824.96229.47162.6641862959070.9610241411.0410241416.127.161024141TT1.98133.987315.4581584362219.7679288088110.517120921390591631141210WETL
2023-12-24 03:00:04FORECAST20248616633.31424.8929.10263.2929064673731.0389769391.1589769396.127.278976939TT1.314133.3147315.9088437626119.9947889004830.48888877659733162114128WETL
2023-12-23 23:00:01FORECAST20248616634.19622.6428.41860.0925719420051.0456698561.1856698566.127.305669856TT2.196132.1967313.607238008618.8454655115650.526265718709591631141210WETL
2023-12-23 19:00:02FORECAST20248616634.50224.8929.69659.9259071631661.0657486071.1757486076.127.295748607TT2.502133.5027313.48686329218.7859846665090.539196052035991631141210WETL
2023-12-23 15:00:01FORECAST20248616633.0824.31428.69759.6984463787320.9669296561.0569296566.127.176929656TT1.08131.087313.3224960135918.7048662275180.47897532665619162114128WETL
2023-12-23 11:00:02FORECAST20248616631.65822.78427.22159.9665516105051.0287407131.0887407136.127.208740713TT-0.342129.6587313.5162237059218.8004868095920.41923163875715162114128WETL
2023-12-23 08:13:19FORECAST20248616631.552327.27559.7338379796530.9704729651.0404729656.127.160472965TT-0.45131.557313.3480768635518.7174832546030.41475187336387162114128WETL
2023-12-23 07:00:04FORECAST20248616632.34224.04428.1933.40598667955060.8854335490.9654335496.127.085433549TT0.342133.3427269.580084278180.918186176123610.447823539374691621134224WETL
2023-12-23 03:00:04FORECAST20248616632.16222.8227.4913.93153952038240.9909454171.0809454176.127.200945417TT0.162130.1627270.01806751991.06158670367180.440266731621841621144232WETL
2023-12-22 23:00:03FORECAST20248616632.46823.43227.9556.4650137394850.7929138140.8829138146.046.922913814TT0.468126.4687310.9756600563917.559244917730.45312476231762162113126WETL
2023-12-22 19:00:03FORECAST20248616633.31424.67428.99456.4231674620320.8413390370.9213390376.046.961339037TT1.314127.3147310.9451613781117.5445109119460.48888877659733162113126WETL
2023-12-22 15:00:03FORECAST20248616633.3524.90829.12956.0672454877020.7720476610.8420476616.046.882047661TT1.35128.357310.6856249068117.419287201150.49041468592661162113126WETL
2023-12-22 11:00:04FORECAST20248616632.64823.6328.13957.9551969330570.8279532030.8879532036.046.927953203TT0.648127.6487312.0596346710818.085477582220.46071221889361162113126WETL
2023-12-22 07:00:12FORECAST20248616633.5324.67429.10258.8789720730870.9795280881.0895280886.037.119528088TT1.53127.537312.7295410809818.4131939157360.49804589037228162114128WETL
2023-12-22 03:00:06FORECAST20248616635.11424.06229.58858.7478652590180.9039374961.0839374966.087.163937496TT3.114130.1147312.6345602795618.3666130226160.564919335711961631141210WETL
2023-12-21 23:00:03FORECAST20248616635.67227.8631.76660.1955271897560.9771658821.1771658826.17.277165882TT3.672124.6727313.6815726453218.8822276350970.58813861420921631141210WETL
2023-12-21 19:00:02FORECAST20248616634.98827.69831.34359.3321029998430.759842930.949842936.097.03984293TT2.988125.9887313.0575699399518.5743639845570.55964212657208163113127.5WETL
2023-12-21 15:00:02FORECAST20248616634.32227.93231.12761.7778324028751.2452762631.4952762636.157.645276263TT2.322125.3227314.8215698151519.448994176850.531594108680541631141210WETL
2023-12-21 11:00:02FORECAST20248616632.34227.7730.05660.2564675168190.8350398211.1550398216.117.265039821TT0.342121.3427313.7255629649918.9039941939960.44782353937469162114128WETL
2023-12-21 07:00:08FORECAST20248616633.60228.05830.8359.4264266215570.7240161391.0340161396.067.094016139TT1.602126.6027313.1258048845218.6079476672860.501098728795271631141210WETL
2023-12-21 03:00:08FORECAST20248616634.7925.5230.15558.3712832919620.7732287640.7732287646.086.853228764TT2.79124.797312.3615681555318.2329455843280.55132828079439163113127.5WETL
2023-12-20 23:00:03FORECAST20248616634.28624.38629.33662.742690128041.06299271.18299276.17.2829927TT2.286115.2867315.5144716495919.7962267256220.530072246942831631141210WETL
2023-12-20 19:00:04FORECAST20248616635.4224.06229.74161.7692420691740.933071371.003071376.127.12307137TT3.42115.427314.8153931327919.4459082255210.577685566191281631141210WETL
2023-12-20 15:00:02FORECAST20248616634.12428.9431.53261.5706052116090.5850396860.8650396866.197.055039686TT2.124116.1247314.6725302626719.3745781317410.52321875169601163113127.5WETL
2023-12-20 11:00:02FORECAST20248616634.23230.27232.25262.5440983454610.9397642871.2297642876.157.379764287TT2.232121.2327315.3719939266419.7246570035520.527788637385641631141210WETL
2023-12-20 07:00:03FORECAST20248616635.07830.77632.92761.1492069508290.8842524461.1842524466.077.254252446TT3.078123.0787314.3692149942319.2234281866520.563412698707681631141210WETL
2023-12-20 03:00:06FORECAST20248616633.9826.29430.13759.3826022367680.519685320.529685326.166.68968532TT1.98115.987313.0941037832518.5923426276380.51712092139059163113127.5WETL
2023-12-19 23:00:02FORECAST20248616633.40426.29429.84960.6574557970950.606299540.606299546.427.02629954TT1.404110.4047314.0148501907519.0473418950770.4927038060008162113126WETL
2023-12-19 19:00:03FORECAST20248616632.9926.85229.92160.7852362009150.5673231410.5673231416.477.037323141TT0.99109.997314.1069736361119.0930665848260.47516558656349162113126WETL
2023-12-19 15:00:02FORECAST20248616632.4526.94229.69662.4604099609650.6921263580.9321263586.387.312126358TT0.45108.457315.3119309896119.6945124751950.45236691062618162113126WETL
2023-12-19 11:00:04FORECAST20248616635.29428.72432.00965.3062336929271.1842526081.5042526086.167.664252608TT3.294115.2947317.3472235972120.7247519460410.572437964759971631151212.5WETL
2023-12-19 07:00:06FORECAST20248616636.80629.42633.11664.4057497485161.157480941.487480946.017.49748094TT4.806117.8067316.7048006854520.39761013710.634307881185261631141210WETL
2023-12-19 03:00:04FORECAST20248616637.07631.42434.2561.2552798402510.7366145710.8766145715.926.796614571TT5.076119.0767314.4455950256219.2614529178290.64504670227333163113127.5WETL
2023-12-18 23:00:03FORECAST20248616633.5327.55430.54262.7018624708720.8578744790.9978744796.177.167874479TT1.53101.537315.4851861166919.7815087514860.49804589037228162114128WETL
2023-12-18 19:00:02FORECAST20248616634.23227.06830.6564.600190785930.9586619351.0586619356.357.408661935TT2.232107.2327316.8436431479820.4681597966690.527788637385641631141210WETL
2023-12-18 15:00:04FORECAST20248616634.10625.08829.59759.6882612115960.4562994590.4762994595.946.416299459TF2.106110.1067313.3151338059818.7012355481570.52245679079432163112125WETL
2023-12-18 11:00:02FORECAST20248616636.06827.55431.81158.400814544440.3401576640.3401576645.776.110157664TF4.068106.0687312.3829854133918.2434207979660.60443652329088163112125WETL
2023-12-18 07:00:05FORECAST20248616635.11425.3430.22758.042745952466006.196.19TF3.114104.1147312.1231912151218.1164870935720.56491933571196163111122.5WETL
2023-12-18 03:00:05FORECAST20248616634.66425.98830.32665.495519863571.6472449841.7472449845.847.587244984TT2.664114.6647317.4820772688820.7936536980910.54602565520181631151212.5WETL
2023-12-17 23:00:05FORECAST20248616634.84426.8730.85767.6397430019171.1712604751.6212604756.027.641260475TT2.84494.8447319.0051735038321.5774279520810.553598087109161631151212.5WETL
2023-12-17 19:00:02FORECAST20248616635.61827.69831.65867.6701444064271.2090557711.7390557716.027.759055771TT3.61893.6187319.0267088102221.5885834546940.585903666347341631151212.5WETL
2023-12-17 15:00:03FORECAST20248616631.15427.21229.18362.8640904044090.5901577990.8901577995.676.560157799TT-0.84688.1547315.6015336960219.8400033460370.39842490932969162113126WETL
2023-12-17 11:00:03FORECAST20248616631.47827.39229.43558.6379695951641.0110241681.1610241685.97.061024168TT-0.52284.4787312.5549216005318.3275859896310.41177147135677162114128WETL
2023-12-17 07:00:05FORECAST20248616631.3726.20428.78758.106025648504005.975.97TF-0.6381.377312.1691205526718.1389069255050.4073104458549162111122WETL
2023-12-17 03:00:08FORECAST20248616631.22626.22228.72466.8709420640641.1641738571.3741738575.867.234173857TT-0.77474.2267318.4600283151421.2957221031820.40138115461235162114128WETL
2023-12-16 23:00:03FORECAST20248616630.25425.39427.82462.1368406071430.2334646930.3334646935.886.213464693TF-1.74669.2547315.0795859536619.5780500109670.36201370970421162112124WETL
2023-12-16 19:00:03FORECAST20248616631.3725.71828.54461.29494906170.2031497160.3031497165.886.183149716TF-0.6377.377314.474154402319.275677275310.4073104458549162112124WETL
2023-12-16 15:00:04FORECAST20248616629.96624.4427.20368.2321002728160.4110238440.7710238446.387.151023844TT-2.03469.9667319.4244796442121.7950031246760.35060361578367162113126WETL
2023-12-16 11:00:04FORECAST20248616628.99423.10826.05163.7626680371570.0830709110.3730709116.256.623070911TT-3.00673.9947316.2451133700920.164632182190.31312858909535162112124WETL
2023-12-16 07:00:07FORECAST20248616631.123.10827.10461.6316393639520.0830709110.3630709116.066.423070911TF-0.992.17314.7164346926819.3964898048880.39621153354532162112124WETL
2023-12-16 03:00:06FORECAST20248616632.0922.17227.13164.7737829404820.2956694510.5956694516.076.665669451TT0.09000000000000383.097316.9675403448320.5311866574740.43724993181462162113126WETL
2023-12-15 23:00:05FORECAST20248616631.42429.91230.66865.7594256150780.3417324680.7417324686.377.111732468TT-0.57688.4247317.6699841955920.8897956958530.40953949485369162113126WETL
2023-12-15 19:00:03FORECAST20248616632.73829.73231.23567.2654372251810.3417324680.7417324686.467.201732468TT0.73889.7387318.7398918778921.4401781882730.46451149326985162113126WETL
2023-12-15 15:00:05FORECAST20248616633.99830.23632.11762.74531752921100.46.226.62TT1.99892.9987315.5163561710719.7971739536140.51788339858807163112125WETL
2023-12-15 11:00:07FORECAST20248616632.25229.8431.04665.4116588813690.1688977291.4288977296.157.578897729TT0.25297.2527317.4223399559120.7631218225220.44404259261541162114128WETL
2023-12-15 07:00:07FORECAST20248616626.94223.34225.14271.6612182379850.1688977291.5588977296.117.668897729TT-5.05870.9427321.8394577366823.0634076184630.24036794921021161115127.5WETL
2023-12-15 03:00:06FORECAST20248616628.68828.16628.42768.70345738223801.376.057.42TT-3.31282.6887319.7576841378121.9684584248050.30169698439768162114128WETL