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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, December 24, 2023

[ Saturday, December 23, 2023 | Index | Today | Monday, December 25, 2023 ]

DAY 85 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/25/2023 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 28.69°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 23.75°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 26.22°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.303
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -3
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 132

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.25 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.81 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.79 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.60 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 65 in
SWE DAY: 8
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 318.40 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 20.79 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 165

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-12-25 07:00:03OBSERVATION20248516528.6899823.7500626.2200265.2840186956520.250.816.797.6TT-3.31002131.689988318.39553021953 20.7861397474640.3029946960466216 2113126WETL
2023-12-25 03:00:04OBSERVATION20248516528.6899823.7500626.2200265.2840186956520.250.816.797.6TT-3.31002131.689988318.39553021953 20.7861397474640.3029946960466216 2113126WETL
2023-12-24 11:00:01FORECAST20248516525.720.42623.06360.0825267172360.0208661530.5808661536.797.370866153TT-6.3128.78314.6782742343318.9066658190180.18911434397719161113124.5WETL
2023-12-24 07:00:03FORECAST20248516525.80820.51623.16259.6558061568330.0370078940.5970078946.797.387007894TT-6.192128.8088314.3711322181718.7540633249110.19270686848724161113124.5WETL
2023-12-24 03:00:04FORECAST20248516526.29420.82223.55859.8368414155540.0814961070.6414961076.797.431496107TT-5.706129.2948314.5014772013418.8187750162540.20938187975793161113124.5WETL
2023-12-23 23:00:01FORECAST20248516526.9620.58823.77456.5232479918220.1370079480.6570079486.797.447007948TT-5.04126.968312.1061798957217.6412550060260.23355744689458161113124.5WETL
2023-12-23 19:00:02FORECAST20248516527.80621.4724.63856.4328095138770.1106299810.6306299816.797.420629981TT-4.194127.8068312.0405215891317.609323315450.26637626615434162113126WETL
2023-12-23 15:00:01FORECAST20248516527.10420.17423.63956.3536523341660.0874016220.6074016226.797.397401622TT-4.896127.1048311.9830411223717.5813838335660.23898065027341161113124.5WETL
2023-12-23 11:00:01FORECAST20248516526.76221.23623.99956.2539970882990.0649606650.5849606656.797.374960665TT-5.238126.7628311.9106594248917.5462213270970.2262130926216161113124.5WETL
2023-12-23 08:13:19FORECAST20248516526.99622.3724.68356.2657015400450.0688976750.5888976756.797.378897675TT-5.004128.9968311.9191615635417.5503504491550.23490682521666161113124.5WETL
2023-12-23 07:00:04FORECAST20248516527.73422.35225.0430.311168004268840.0818898080.6018898086.797.391889808TT-4.266129.7348268.244119082860.0834689871918640.263495177053911621134224WETL
2023-12-23 03:00:03FORECAST20248516528.27421.32624.80.373588129084040.0881890240.6081890246.797.398189024TT-3.726127.2748268.29638092930.10023234299140.285482970955571621134224WETL
2023-12-22 23:00:02FORECAST20248516526.99621.32624.16153.4097584268830.0925197350.5325197356.797.322519735TT-5.004122.9968309.837086593116.5483239466270.23490682521666161113124.5WETL
2023-12-22 19:00:03FORECAST20248516527.6822.26224.97153.3500337309480.0803150040.5203150046.797.310315004TT-4.32122.688309.7933839247416.527487482010.26134483196283162113126WETL
2023-12-22 15:00:02FORECAST20248516528.09423.66625.8853.2710867570250.0677165720.5077165726.797.297716572TT-3.906124.0948309.7356054623316.4999523103240.27805756364995162113126WETL
2023-12-22 11:00:03FORECAST20248516528.07623.21625.64654.7927797323580.0566929440.4966929446.797.286692944TT-3.924124.0768310.8472400356217.0321843536830.27732023096107162113126WETL
2023-12-22 07:00:11FORECAST20248516527.5922.7325.1655.1185756026560.1066929710.5366929716.797.326692971TT-4.41122.598311.0846841105717.1465446799770.25778103403993162113126WETL
2023-12-22 03:00:06FORECAST20248516527.82423.2725.54755.6097683258170.1799213570.6599213576.797.449921357TT-4.176123.8248311.4423002319517.3192341627580.2670990177276162113126WETL
2023-12-21 23:00:02FORECAST20248516529.9324.60227.26656.7284083852830.1964567990.6964567996.797.486456799TT-2.07117.938312.2550703727417.713733152480.35781238363708162113126WETL
2023-12-21 19:00:02FORECAST20248516530.1124.42227.26656.5659991554590.1901575830.6801575836.797.470157583TT-1.89120.118312.1372119774917.6563532691060.36605426059484162113126WETL
2023-12-21 15:00:02FORECAST20248516530.63224.38627.50956.9465016149720.2496064340.7996064346.797.589606434TT-1.368119.6328312.4132615052917.790842300850.39029485920304162113126WETL
2023-12-21 11:00:02FORECAST20248516529.71423.46826.59156.8176074678050.3232285210.8332285216.797.623228521TT-2.286117.7148312.3197803766817.7452626858730.34800919519064162113126WETL
2023-12-21 07:00:08FORECAST20248516530.59624.24227.41956.5202206509250.3094489860.7694489866.797.559448986TT-1.404121.5968312.1039822911617.6401859451290.38860810732354162113126WETL
2023-12-21 03:00:08FORECAST20248516530.30823.88227.09555.38708564968200.486.797.27TT-1.692119.3088311.28022991717.2409047554660.37519208411756162112124WETL
2023-12-20 23:00:03FORECAST20248516529.49821.05625.27758.2585986721610.1157480940.6157480946.797.405748094TT-2.502110.4988313.3631270310818.2560966563570.33830649702855162113126WETL
2023-12-20 19:00:03FORECAST20248516529.28221.3825.33158.0780278332950.0732283860.5932283866.797.383228386TT-2.718109.2828313.2325942818818.1919313289980.32870993288208162113126WETL
2023-12-20 15:00:02FORECAST20248516529.89422.78426.33959.1650785323460.2771655040.8671655046.797.657165504TT-2.106110.8948314.0175078394118.5788705118510.3561717859953162113126WETL
2023-12-20 11:00:02FORECAST20248516532.8122.60427.70758.6882240449860.2917324410.8417324416.797.631732441TT0.81115.818313.6734580968718.4089381857550.49502463258575162113126WETL
2023-12-20 07:00:03FORECAST20248516533.20625.37629.29157.7270905702150.3015749660.7715749666.797.561574966TT1.206117.2068312.9787341390418.0673517321960.51432142493478163113127.5WETL
2023-12-20 03:00:06FORECAST20248516528.97621.34425.1657.2117001841550.0141732360.5741732366.797.364173236TT-3.024110.9768312.6055018644617.8846922485870.3153070312978162113126WETL
2023-12-19 23:00:02FORECAST20248516529.69622.04625.87157.87518283147400.6177.61TT-2.304105.6968313.0858883562518.1199030305730.34719671965031162113126WETL
2023-12-19 19:00:02FORECAST20248516529.85821.75825.80858.09955763622800.6677.66TT-2.142105.8588313.2481610924318.1995795898320.35453384528464162113126WETL
2023-12-19 15:00:02FORECAST20248516530.88419.23825.06159.1130473036810.1716536360.81165363677.811653636TT-1.116104.8848313.9799876427918.5603138619370.40215830361163162113126WETL
2023-12-19 11:00:04FORECAST20248516530.81223.07226.94260.0447404413510.3244096240.67440962477.674409624TT-1.188108.8128314.6510901183818.8931430357460.39875901972651162113126WETL
2023-12-19 07:00:06FORECAST20248516530.32623.37826.85259.5896947655460.3299214380.5099214387.027.529921438TT-1.674110.3268314.3235172211418.7304424488410.37602636664575162113126WETL
2023-12-19 03:00:04FORECAST20248516531.80224.13427.96858.4045577367770.1366142470.3266142476.927.246614247TT-0.198110.8028313.4685955483918.3079946873720.44606261327711162112124WETL
2023-12-18 23:00:02FORECAST20248516528.20222.4625.33159.4616681261850.1421260610.4121260617.097.502126061TT-3.79897.2028314.2312866518418.6847164817560.28250151141397162112124WETL
2023-12-18 19:00:02FORECAST20248516529.71421.9225.81759.7744778660050.1015748580.5215748587.127.641574858TT-2.286101.7148314.4565823516318.7964780215970.34800919519064162113126WETL
2023-12-18 15:00:04FORECAST20248516529.3920.67825.03457.4248291466270.0161417410.1261417417.027.146141741TT-2.61105.398312.7599035499817.9601840252730.33349460354718162112124WETL
2023-12-18 11:00:02FORECAST20248516529.37221.30825.3457.038113833154006.966.96TT-2.62899.3728312.4796851231417.8232518506020.33269524963001162111122WETL
2023-12-18 07:00:05FORECAST20248516528.0419.86823.95458.15954675246600.357.037.38TT-3.9698.048313.2915308592818.2208934361620.27584843679603162112124WETL
2023-12-18 03:00:05FORECAST20248516529.55221.86625.70956.9647030108370.098425250.098425257.037.12842525TT-2.448108.5528312.4264596933417.7972804891580.3407224384538162112124WETL
2023-12-17 23:00:04FORECAST20248516528.45419.63424.04460.9870727967920.452756150.672756156.997.66275615TT-3.54689.4548315.3282425203419.2309464814720.29300138073177162113126WETL
2023-12-17 19:00:02FORECAST20248516528.74220.80424.77361.0298774554050.4929136520.8429136526.97.742913652TT-3.25886.7428315.3589631348119.2463188745810.30521798145955162113126WETL
2023-12-17 15:00:03FORECAST20248516528.72420.40824.56658.9651151759340.283464720.343464726.827.16346472TT-3.27685.7248313.8732853329718.5075744203070.30444786012037162112124WETL
2023-12-17 11:00:03FORECAST20248516528.77820.35424.56658.6379695951640.1539370910.4439370916.87.243937091TT-3.22281.7788313.6371753140818.391047149980.30676080888936162112124WETL
2023-12-17 07:00:05FORECAST20248516528.3120.08424.19758.10602564850400.256.917.16TT-3.6979.318313.2528375282518.2018774118830.28697929119102162112124WETL
2023-12-17 03:00:08FORECAST20248516527.26618.6822.97359.1832552894250.2090552310.3090552316.957.259055231TT-4.73472.2668314.0306140971318.5853540028050.24516302288658161112123WETL
2023-12-16 23:00:02FORECAST20248516528.27419.2223.74760.20548570224100.196.987.17TT-3.72668.2748314.7667150489418.950682962420.28548297095557162112124WETL
2023-12-16 19:00:03FORECAST20248516529.9319.34624.63859.63735615590400.196.987.17TT-2.0774.938314.3578448928318.7474707562760.35781238363708162112124WETL
2023-12-16 15:00:04FORECAST20248516528.07622.125.08864.76396078445800.847.097.93TT-3.92469.0768318.0260756410420.5966282912520.27732023096107162113126WETL
2023-12-16 11:00:03FORECAST20248516528.1322.2825.20562.90249227694900.657.087.73TT-3.8774.138316.6996620836719.9211980483310.27953508864617162113126WETL
2023-12-16 07:00:07FORECAST20248516530.93824.00827.47360.76644773968700.636.97.53TT-1.06289.9388315.169848421719.1517521232430.40471264582055162113126WETL
2023-12-16 03:00:06FORECAST20248516533.02625.68229.35462.51980598812500.666.97.56TT1.02680.0268316.4261959526119.7829043805180.5055515964448163113127.5WETL
2023-12-15 23:00:05FORECAST20248516535.20425.80830.50662.66597832989400.937.037.96TT3.20486.2048316.5306815149419.8357048285620.61025938275306163113127.5WETL
2023-12-15 19:00:02FORECAST20248516535.81626.63631.22664.40344013531400.957.18.05TT3.81685.8168317.7696714260420.4654600105050.63861595762675163113127.5WETL
2023-12-15 15:00:05FORECAST20248516535.79826.65431.22662.7703111292110.3633860230.5533860237.267.813386023TT3.79887.7988316.6052359993919.8734091688190.63779185603148163113127.5WETL
2023-12-15 11:00:07FORECAST20248516540.74830.50635.62764.0695032956951.0460635571.2560635577.348.596063557TT8.74893.7488317.5319642037320.3441152270390.830821771718061641141212WETL
2023-12-15 07:00:07FORECAST20248516533.9827.5930.78570.0305104074731.1464573121.3864573127.38.686457312TT1.9872.988321.7450294676322.5319686346860.551899960255861631141210WETL
2023-12-15 03:00:06FORECAST20248516532.12628.5830.35368.7034573822381.1271659631.3671659637.248.607165963TT0.12683.1268320.8126192918522.0409361172020.46174694837513162114128WETL
2023-12-14 23:00:04FORECAST20248516527.35625.7926.57360.104736291412007.267.26TT-4.64464.3568314.6942509778518.9146149674470.24863442479824161111121.5WETL
2023-12-14 19:00:05FORECAST20248516526.85223.88225.36759.815786124499007.197.19TT-5.14868.8528314.4863205185718.8112464872190.22953517482794161111121.5WETL
2023-12-14 15:00:04FORECAST20248516528.50828.3128.40959.326297785562007.257.25TT-3.49275.5088314.1337330422618.6363913909550.29527466757651162111122WETL
2023-12-14 11:00:05FORECAST20248516526.85225.726.27657.42242256727700.067.227.28TT-5.14872.8528312.7581605654917.9593312573560.22953517482794161111121.5WETL
2023-12-14 07:00:07FORECAST20248516528.6727.24827.95958.09952848202500.027.317.33TT-3.3373.678313.2481400134818.1995692326540.30214269853216162111122WETL
2023-12-14 03:00:08FORECAST20248516530.5629.91230.23658.431704610484007.277.27TT-1.4493.568313.4882072877118.3176503271060.38692345252368162111122WETL