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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, December 23, 2023

[ Friday, December 22, 2023 | Index | Today | Sunday, December 24, 2023 ]

DAY 84 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/24/2023 07:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 28.44°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 17.95°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 23.19°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.322
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -4
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 143

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.04 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.56 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 7.95 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 8.51 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 60 in
SWE DAY: 9
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 315.35 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 18.77 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 164

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-12-24 07:00:02OBSERVATION20248416428.4399617.9499223.1949459.5192379166670.0400000000000770.560000000000087.958.5100000000001TT-3.56004143.439969315.34850202077 18.7693025184380.3217067295447316 2113126WETL
2023-12-24 03:00:03OBSERVATION20248416428.4399617.9499223.1949459.5192379166670.0400000000000770.560000000000087.958.5100000000001TT-3.56004143.439969315.34850202077 18.7693025184380.3217067295447316 2113126WETL
2023-12-23 11:00:01FORECAST20248416425.3415.09820.2195600.527.958.47TT-6.66140.349312.811490411917.5174434630660.20981075050923161113124.5WETL
2023-12-23 08:13:18FORECAST20248416426.72615.33221.0295600.527.958.47TT-5.274141.7269312.811490411917.5174434630660.25681489226971162113126WETL
2023-12-23 07:00:03FORECAST20248416426.85215.2621.056000.527.958.47TT-5.148141.8529269.2347708923500.26134372912431621135230WETL
2023-12-23 03:00:03FORECAST20248416424.36814.70219.535000.527.958.47TT-7.632139.3689269.2347708923500.180091434036061611135222.5WETL
2023-12-22 23:00:02FORECAST20248416426.83414.43220.6335300.447.958.39TT-5.166135.8349310.6308181591616.4634333624350.26069425335031162112124WETL
2023-12-22 19:00:02FORECAST20248416425.95215.09820.5255300.447.958.39TT-6.048134.9529310.6308181591616.4634333624350.22991505932833161112123WETL
2023-12-22 15:00:01FORECAST20248416426.88815.96221.4255300.447.958.39TT-5.112135.8889310.6308181591616.4634333624350.26264516610201162112124WETL
2023-12-22 11:00:03FORECAST20248416427.01416.73621.87554.5662764544800.447.958.39TT-4.986136.0149311.7714029437817.0122045636310.26722612968054162112124WETL
2023-12-22 07:00:10FORECAST20248416426.07816.28621.18254.67997775286700.437.958.38TT-5.922135.0789311.8540253226817.0521711667860.23418387794771161112123WETL
2023-12-22 03:00:06FORECAST20248416426.40216.59221.49754.85230150693800.487.958.43TT-5.598136.4029311.9792009169817.1127771925920.2453593683877161112123WETL
2023-12-21 23:00:02FORECAST20248416427.10416.30421.70455.87983088587600.57.958.45TT-4.896128.1049312.7244596929417.4749899215180.27052272409872162113126WETL
2023-12-21 19:00:01FORECAST20248416427.64417.79822.72155.73255479397800.497.958.44TT-4.356129.6449312.6177609079117.4229864893710.29071832958167162112124WETL
2023-12-21 15:00:02FORECAST20248416426.8717.40222.13655.9260165462200.557.958.5TT-5.13128.879312.7579121231617.4913041683610.26199403388617162113126WETL
2023-12-21 11:00:01FORECAST20248416424.90816.55620.73255.41249382275400.517.958.46TT-7.092127.9089312.3857450267617.3100731666120.19626224943623161113124.5WETL
2023-12-21 07:00:07FORECAST20248416427.57217.36622.46955.27364054975900.467.958.41TT-4.428130.5729312.2850300118217.2611304979440.28798531784759162112124WETL
2023-12-21 03:00:07FORECAST20248416427.08617.18622.13655.38708564968200.487.958.43TT-4.914129.0869312.3673182673217.3011154110340.26986178518817162112124WETL
2023-12-20 23:00:02FORECAST20248416425.59215.29620.44457.66754991216600.57.958.45TT-6.408120.5929314.0164510294418.1085593629810.21796121139199161113124.5WETL
2023-12-20 19:00:03FORECAST20248416425.39414.91820.15657.72268488458500.527.958.47TT-6.606120.3949314.0562041013818.1281673053930.21154206242428161113124.5WETL
2023-12-20 15:00:02FORECAST20248416424.816.50220.65157.86661112538700.597.958.54TT-7.2120.89314.1599506658918.1793716963540.19295969412402161113124.5WETL
2023-12-20 11:00:02FORECAST20248416426.20417.02421.61457.49003013669800.557.958.5TT-5.796123.2049313.8884190093418.0454546684070.23849614647935161113124.5WETL
2023-12-20 07:00:03FORECAST20248416426.31217.6922.00156.50888317507800.477.958.42TT-5.688124.3129313.1797472976417.6974377528430.24222665113175161112123WETL
2023-12-20 03:00:06FORECAST20248416424.99817.00621.00257.14910452090800.567.958.51TT-7.002121.9989313.6423723617617.9243807202880.19904033156814161113124.5WETL
2023-12-19 23:00:02FORECAST20248416424.40416.59220.49857.87518283147400.618.168.77TT-7.596116.4049314.1661282248618.182422110470.18114279728243161113124.5WETL
2023-12-19 19:00:02FORECAST20248416424.3517.81621.08358.09955763622800.668.168.82TT-7.65116.359314.3277854947618.2623052900210.17956718859241161113124.5WETL
2023-12-19 15:00:02FORECAST20248416423.68417.47420.57958.2486336629690.0657480670.6357480678.168.795748067TT-8.316113.6849314.4351406686418.3154173195720.1608456987372161113124.5WETL
2023-12-19 11:00:04FORECAST20248416425.89820.49823.19858.37935554873200.358.168.51TT-6.102117.8989314.5292448997318.3620146184750.22809896308414161112123WETL
2023-12-19 07:00:06FORECAST20248416428.20219.41823.8157.95959199743100.188.188.36TT-3.798120.2029314.2269540423818.2124660508920.31229837633373162112124WETL
2023-12-19 03:00:04FORECAST20248416426.88819.34623.11757.77367732732100.198.088.27TT-5.112118.8889314.0929653974618.1463056336540.26264516610201162112124WETL
2023-12-18 23:00:02FORECAST20248416425.62820.80423.21658.67428345927500.278.258.52TT-6.372108.6289314.7414432286918.4672286563820.21914025690728161112123WETL
2023-12-18 19:00:02FORECAST20248416426.5120.87623.69359.22430243315900.428.288.7TT-5.49111.519315.1367531811318.6637543782030.24914714357714162112124WETL
2023-12-18 15:00:04FORECAST20248416427.53620.73224.13457.33300223087300.118.188.29TT-4.464115.5369313.7751181465317.9896695486870.28662337070892162112124WETL
2023-12-18 11:00:02FORECAST20248416425.7919.11222.45157.038113833154008.128.12TT-6.21109.799313.5622241927917.8849978372850.2244910421791161111121.5WETL
2023-12-18 07:00:04FORECAST20248416424.13417.97821.05658.15954675246600.358.198.54TT-7.866110.1349314.3709907692418.2836743352630.17335104845839161112123WETL
2023-12-18 03:00:05FORECAST20248416429.31821.75825.53856.319139045503008.198.19TT-2.682119.3189313.0424932743417.6302837058690.35738124371143162111122WETL
2023-12-17 23:00:04FORECAST20248416426.76218.19422.47858.15736322958100.228.158.37TT-5.238100.7629314.36941827118.2828964466580.25810467051108162112124WETL
2023-12-17 19:00:02FORECAST20248416425.64620.06622.85658.0119292932210.03937010.34937018.068.4093701TT-6.35497.6469314.2646621034218.2310993573010.21973114956232161112123WETL
2023-12-17 15:00:02FORECAST20248416427.10418.3222.71257.1783665114740.0248031630.0648031637.988.044803163TT-4.89697.1049313.6634991544217.9347665159230.27052272409872162111122WETL
2023-12-17 11:00:03FORECAST20248416424.54818.73421.64157.72325556337300.297.968.25TT-7.45292.5489314.0566155395118.1283702801550.1853864948828161112123WETL
2023-12-17 07:00:05FORECAST20248416424.81818.82421.82158.10602564850400.258.078.32TT-7.18290.8189314.3324441938518.2646090644850.1935077558346161112123WETL
2023-12-17 03:00:08FORECAST20248416425.35819.6722.51457.83985972880400.18.118.21TT-6.64285.3589314.1406702866918.1698523044950.21038692870158161112123WETL
2023-12-16 23:00:02FORECAST20248416424.38619.32821.85760.2054857022410.0996063530.1896063538.148.329606353TT-7.61480.3869315.8405798963319.0153355171360.18061663704815161112123WETL
2023-12-16 19:00:03FORECAST20248416427.2321.43424.33259.6373561559040.0988189510.1888189518.148.328818951TT-4.7785.239315.433260498518.8116056997670.27517179194655162112124WETL
2023-12-16 15:00:03FORECAST20248416424.81819.92222.3764.7639607844580.3629923220.8429923228.259.092992322TT-7.18280.8189319.0875784209820.6653754156640.1935077558346161113124.5WETL
2023-12-16 11:00:03FORECAST20248416428.3119.63423.97262.9024922769490.287401730.647401738.248.88740173TT-3.6986.319317.7661956705419.9882856690420.31655376804526162113126WETL
2023-12-16 07:00:07FORECAST20248416431.11822.78426.95160.7664477396870.27559070.62559078.068.6855907TT-0.88299.1189316.2421842692119.216914163480.43420889906748162113126WETL
2023-12-16 03:00:06FORECAST20248416432.21624.69228.45462.5369275881250.2996064610.6596064618.068.719606461TT0.21687.2169317.5059610222419.8558472932460.4825351339291162113126WETL
2023-12-15 23:00:04FORECAST20248416429.87624.83627.35662.7724471298940.3960632060.9260632068.199.116063206TT-2.12490.8769317.6736480803519.9411522786850.38074320896916162113126WETL
2023-12-15 19:00:02FORECAST20248416431.15425.59228.37364.5452345353140.3956695050.9456695058.269.205669505TT-0.84690.1549318.9326370532220.5855818595660.43578184444113162113126WETL
2023-12-15 15:00:05FORECAST20248416432.97227.01429.99360.5644229604840.0409449040.1909449048.428.610944904TT0.97291.9729316.09761646119.1442697401450.51600251515186163112125WETL
2023-12-15 11:00:06FORECAST20248416437.2229.69633.45861.0287195617240.208661530.208661538.58.70866153TT5.2293.229316.4297538932619.3113027113370.69555277117642163112125WETL
2023-12-15 07:00:06FORECAST20248416431.69427.37429.53461.8727186681710.2358268990.2358268998.468.695826899TT-0.30678.6949317.0325115951319.6156633985890.45948420113583162112124WETL
2023-12-15 03:00:06FORECAST20248416433.9829.58831.78460.1293912032460.2366143010.2366143018.48.636614301TT1.9890.989315.7860581750618.9880234285390.56041041858178163112125WETL
2023-12-14 23:00:04FORECAST20248416433.18826.94230.06560.104736291412008.428.42TT1.18877.1889315.7683906661818.9791758501540.52555423949404163111122.5WETL
2023-12-14 19:00:04FORECAST20248416432.82826.43829.63359.815786124499008.358.35TT0.82881.8289315.5612488432818.875544169990.50962925328958163111122.5WETL
2023-12-14 15:00:04FORECAST20248416434.86228.431.63159.326297785562008.418.41TT2.86286.8629315.2099986569318.7002422453070.59867187508175163111122.5WETL
2023-12-14 11:00:05FORECAST20248416433.7124.45829.08457.42242256727700.068.388.44TT1.7185.719313.8396434365118.0214326237750.54856640447214163111122.5WETL
2023-12-14 07:00:07FORECAST20248416432.46827.91430.19158.09952848202500.028.478.49TT0.46885.4689314.3277644957618.2622949060130.49368890063148162111122WETL
2023-12-14 03:00:08FORECAST20248416438.04827.69832.87358.431704610484008.438.43TT6.048103.0489314.5669212454418.3806814224430.72693427495892164111123WETL
2023-12-13 23:00:04FORECAST20248416430.93817.81624.37761.180029517918008.178.17TT-1.06262.9389316.5379098048419.36579866540.42636027177823162111122WETL
2023-12-13 19:00:04FORECAST20248416430.2917.83424.06260.649797410198008.198.19TT-1.7166.299316.1587189931819.1749622564040.39836719686481162111122WETL
2023-12-13 15:00:05FORECAST20248416426.67214.03620.35460.13924026013500.0288.02TT-5.32865.6729315.7931156196918.9915580527490.25488652468569162111122WETL
2023-12-13 11:00:04FORECAST20248416418.80611.78615.29665.17714983101400.298.78.99TT-13.19447.8069319.3800386117720.8162806296350.062593587438626161112123WETL
2023-12-13 07:00:06FORECAST20248416427.35623.28825.32265.01105941176300.168.78.86TT-4.64454.3569319.2625147008520.7555943111660.27985981259193162112124WETL
2023-12-13 03:00:05FORECAST20248416425.01624.94424.9872.66128398216301.248.499.73TT-6.98448.0169324.6246129006223.5876411855710.19959877195139161114126WETL