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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, December 13, 2023

[ Tuesday, December 12, 2023 | Index | Today | Thursday, December 14, 2023 ]

DAY 74 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/14/2023 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 48.71°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 36.71°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 42.71°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.978
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 17
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 89

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 18.68 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 18.68 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 59 in
SWE DAY: 19
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 325.53 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 19.21 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 154

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 2
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-12-14 07:00:04OBSERVATION20247415448.7099436.7100642.7159.0041470833330018.6818.68TT16.7099488.7099419325.52789665004 19.2074958936670.9781057040921616 5211124WETL
2023-12-14 03:00:05OBSERVATION20247415448.7099436.7100642.7159.0041470833330018.6818.68TT16.7099488.7099419325.52789665004 19.2074958936670.9781057040921616 5211124WETL
2023-12-13 11:00:01FORECAST20247415437.18429.6633.42259.81176080018.6818.68TT5.18477.18419326.0860514466319.5037809093430.73183471195509164211123.5WETL
2023-12-13 07:00:04FORECAST20247415437.83230.39834.11560.1136270018.6818.68TT5.83277.83219326.2943822357819.6147387859170.75703382765449164211123.5WETL
2023-12-13 03:00:03FORECAST20247415437.41830.86634.14260.08440220018.6818.68TT5.41877.41819326.2742199330219.6039914579470.74108358230317164211123.5WETL
2023-12-12 23:00:02FORECAST20247415438.85831.22635.04261.63070480018.6818.68TT6.85875.85819327.3389673595620.1741312668740.79416979521855164211123.5WETL
2023-12-12 19:00:02FORECAST20247415437.00430.39833.70161.79641040018.6818.68TT5.00474.00419327.4528204326920.2354088780960.72460892461466164211123.5WETL
2023-12-12 15:00:02FORECAST20247415437.6729.33633.50361.7387480018.6818.68TT5.6774.6719327.4132071628820.2140814889010.75085635498295164211123.5WETL
2023-12-12 11:00:02FORECAST20247415437.86830.21834.04361.65963440018.6818.68TT5.86874.86819327.3588477741520.1848268713590.75839527690207164211123.5WETL
2023-12-12 07:00:05FORECAST20247415436.9530.8333.8961.4057110666670018.6818.68TT4.9571.9519327.1843018457820.0909847046910.72242267998638164211123.5WETL
2023-12-12 03:00:04FORECAST20247415436.78829.94833.36861.4072854666670018.6818.68TT4.78871.78819327.185384429220.0915663021650.71581357531024164211123.5WETL
2023-12-11 23:00:02FORECAST20247415438.22831.29834.76364.5631040018.6818.68TT6.22872.22819329.3466990969421.2636451858520.77177965458631164211123.5WETL
2023-12-11 19:00:02FORECAST20247415437.29230.27233.78264.69919120018.6818.68TT5.29269.29219329.4395115887621.3144699491160.73612397232493164211123.5WETL
2023-12-11 15:00:03FORECAST20247415436.71628.14832.43264.7667920018.6818.68TT4.71668.71619329.4856039166921.3397255758670.71285226276939164211123.5WETL
2023-12-11 11:00:02FORECAST20247415437.14828.43632.79264.74435680018.6818.68TT5.14870.14819329.47030777721.331343161720.73039721138005164211123.5WETL
2023-12-11 07:00:05FORECAST20247415438.0329.71433.87264.3882203666670018.6818.68TT6.0372.0319329.2273800322821.1983650962590.76447030417079164211123.5WETL
2023-12-11 03:00:06FORECAST20247415437.79629.8433.81864.4525739666670018.6818.68TT5.79667.79619329.27129317121.2223823782040.75566824541089164211123.5WETL
2023-12-10 23:00:02FORECAST20247415437.54431.08234.31356.6393640018.0818.08TT5.54468.54419323.8869569977418.3447512522470.74599459344906164211123.5WETL
2023-12-10 19:00:02FORECAST20247415437.23830.30833.77356.8166349141630.027559070.0275590718.0818.10755907TT5.23867.23819324.0103085632918.4091754100660.73398371546211164211123.5WETL
2023-12-10 15:00:03FORECAST20247415436.24830.0233.13456.79463920018.0818.08TT4.24866.24819323.9950061614418.4011794775410.69325705459965163211123WETL
2023-12-10 11:00:02FORECAST20247415436.57228.07632.32460.3347718852920018.0818.08TT4.57266.57219326.4469024465519.6960993917730.70688625294947164211123.5WETL
2023-12-10 07:00:04FORECAST20247415435.92427.71631.8260.4107142397240018.0918.09TT3.92465.92419326.4992589566319.7240534323110.67935554241742163211123WETL
2023-12-10 03:00:05FORECAST20247415437.02228.68832.85560.5807557453510018.0218.02TT5.02267.02219326.6164530986319.7866715675810.72533578767684164211123.5WETL
2023-12-09 23:00:03FORECAST20247415437.88628.25633.07158.6141459428850.035433090.0354330918.0918.12543309TT5.88665.88619325.2579503727619.0647169722330.75907444752881164211123.5WETL
2023-12-09 19:00:02FORECAST20247415436.17627.42831.80258.2855755356230.0519685320.05196853217.8417.891968532TT4.17662.17619325.0303168404718.9445790835730.69019080713896163211123WETL
2023-12-09 15:00:03FORECAST20247415436.0527.19431.62258.0906910864150.0543307380.05433073817.7817.834330738TT4.0560.0519324.8952111370418.8733873456180.68479302979929163211123WETL
2023-12-09 11:00:03FORECAST20247415437.27429.01233.14366.3668644088870.0346456880.03464568817.8817.914645688TT5.27463.27419330.5742756092621.9391781264250.73541152864452164211123.5WETL
2023-12-09 07:00:04FORECAST20247415436.57230.21833.39565.6693871165710.0346456880.03464568817.7117.744645688TT4.57263.57219330.1002636543321.6774820011980.70688625294947164211123.5WETL
2023-12-09 03:00:05FORECAST20247415437.32829.33633.33265.7774938040130.0543307380.05433073817.7217.774330738TT5.32863.32819330.1737889528621.7180043570940.73754592371105164211123.5WETL
2023-12-08 23:00:02FORECAST20247415437.5829.55233.56654.9207942140570.0527559340.05275593417.1317.182755934TT5.5865.5819322.6882298157517.7222938650090.74738872137273164211123.5WETL
2023-12-08 19:00:02FORECAST20247415437.29228.70632.99954.0413412546750.0562992430.05629924317.0517.106299243TT5.29264.29219322.072771716717.4052445651810.73612397232493164211123.5WETL
2023-12-08 15:00:03FORECAST20247415436.44629.0332.73855.6774747085460.1988190050.19881900517.0517.248819005TT4.44663.44619323.2166701712517.995887978840.70161935950618164212127WETL
2023-12-08 11:00:03FORECAST20247415437.16629.10233.13455.3515853379010.2291339820.22913398216.9417.169133982TT5.16665.16619322.9892044420317.8779645128930.73111644342678164212127WETL
2023-12-08 07:00:04FORECAST20247415437.54428.3132.92755.1862180214750.1716536360.17165363617.0817.251653636TT5.54463.54419322.8737085859717.8181788754280.74599459344906164212127WETL
2023-12-08 03:00:08FORECAST20247415437.32829.06633.19754.26538328098300.0717.0717.14TT5.32868.32819322.2296911671317.4859176956970.73754592371105164211123.5WETL
2023-12-07 23:00:03FORECAST20247415434.28628.65231.46950.57913973494100.1417.7517.89TT2.28652.28619319.6364525317316.1669367969830.60553234735903163212126WETL
2023-12-07 19:00:03FORECAST20247415436.48229.82233.15251.25317962320600.2118.0318.24TT4.48258.48219320.1124492030516.4067808586280.70312857331469164212127WETL
2023-12-07 15:00:04FORECAST20247415437.27429.87633.57550.7505139709900.1518.0918.24TT5.27460.27419319.7575516684516.2278600932790.73541152864452164212127WETL
2023-12-07 11:00:04FORECAST20247415434.30428.83231.56852.9091339842040.0799213030.22992130317.2317.459921303TT2.30451.30419321.2784043138416.9985621400720.60637043073288163212126WETL
2023-12-07 07:00:06FORECAST20247415434.62827.6831.15453.4251698554620.0582677480.21826774817.2617.478267748TT2.62848.62819321.6407433294417.1837113448130.62136820458399163212126WETL
2023-12-07 03:00:06FORECAST20247415433.4429.87631.65853.0774150416530.1476378750.20763787517.1617.367637875TT1.4454.4419321.3966164916717.0589016065110.56565632696443163212126WETL
2023-12-06 23:00:04FORECAST20247415434.75425.44830.10153.6486386573510.1149606920.11496069216.8116.924960692TT2.75452.75419321.7975065607417.2639981503140.62715304763404163212126WETL
2023-12-06 19:00:03FORECAST20247415435.11427.2331.17254.1152970156020.1169291970.11692919716.9117.026929197TT3.11452.11419322.1245803423617.4318673412530.64351996591813163212126WETL
2023-12-06 15:00:04FORECAST20247415434.57427.53631.05550.6359798344480016.3916.39TT2.57458.57419319.6766236122616.1871390667750.61888055364714163211123WETL
2023-12-06 11:28:58FORECAST20247415434.30428.47231.38852.0544531553420016.0516.05TT2.30456.30419320.6772371525616.6926782193420.60637043073288163211123WETL
2023-12-06 11:00:04FORECAST20247415434.91628.74231.82915.45169827229700.1115.715.81TT2.91655.91619293.667449291674.537660818850.634548625916821632123218WETL
2023-12-06 07:00:08FORECAST20247415435.6928.81432.25214.9569925986640015.8715.87TT3.6958.6919293.28492486594.3866604505190.66915535411006163211329WETH
2023-12-06 03:00:09FORECAST20247415438.62430.57834.60113.29203532843400.1615.3315.49TT6.62461.62419291.993982544573.88119433167270.786009409791541642123221WETH
2023-12-05 23:00:03FORECAST20247415436.01429.28232.64856.9241775962240.094488240.0944882414.0214.11448824TT4.01444.01419324.085113619318.4482785639570.68324347171041163212126WETL
2023-12-05 19:00:04FORECAST20247415436.0529.87632.96356.8273487875170014.1214.12TT4.0542.0519324.0177618873218.4130703681210.68479302979929163211123WETL
2023-12-05 15:00:04FORECAST20247415434.30428.59831.45158.7170612512620.062992160.6229921613.6414.26299216TT2.30446.30419325.3292110215819.1023752103790.60637043073288163213129WETL
2023-12-05 11:00:06FORECAST20247415435.74430.00232.87357.95541634654700.1414.1114.25TT3.74446.74419324.8013911642418.8239998548610.67152076353599163212126WETL
2023-12-05 07:00:10FORECAST20247415435.52829.64232.58557.44221927739200.1414.3114.45TT3.52853.52819324.4451693931418.6368505637710.66201884445876163212126WETL
2023-12-04 23:00:04FORECAST20247415434.80830.54232.67566.2276260798670.208661530.4686615314.0514.51866153TT2.80841.80819330.4797150414421.8868869947450.6296236045869163212126WETL
2023-12-04 19:00:04FORECAST20247415437.4928.88633.18875.9319603894430.2314961882.14149618814.1416.281496188TT5.4945.4919336.9907847236925.5883709172460.743895867674221642151217.5WETL
2023-12-04 15:00:04FORECAST20247415436.6828.86832.77475.4630496301460.031496081.6814960814.1415.82149608TT4.6843.6819336.6798480213225.4068880807030.711366154361041642151217.5WETL
2023-12-04 11:00:03FORECAST20247415436.30231.20833.75589.7965985353680.657480672.8774806715.3418.21748067TT4.30244.30219346.0191062997731.0713387739670.695547921663171632151215WETL
2023-12-04 07:00:08FORECAST20247415433.72825.2529.48982.1307088407181.000000541.0000005414.7915.79000054TT1.72834.72819341.0665830762228.0120402299320.579327939665731632141212WETL
2023-12-04 03:00:06FORECAST20247415434.82627.12230.97484.8823115231891.531496891.5314968914.6716.20149689TT2.82637.82619342.8553518173329.1023547803510.630445943071781632151215WETL
2023-12-03 23:00:04FORECAST20247415427.39219.92223.65779.3022685400940.019685050.2096850514.6614.86968505TT-4.60832.39219339.2147866807226.9005021061250.28552673193809162212125WETL
2023-12-03 19:00:03FORECAST20247415427.33819.77823.55877.7173115835650.019685050.1896850514.3414.52968505TT-4.66221.33819338.1712750923226.2817623549610.28331037096635162212125WETL
2023-12-03 15:00:04FORECAST20247415434.98831.20833.09878.0903999346680.007874020.1278740214.5514.67787402TT2.98849.98819338.4172889818126.4271414413960.63781975453521163212126WETL
2023-12-03 11:00:04FORECAST20247415429.85828.47229.16587.9419896552230.492126251.3021262513.6614.96212625TT-2.14226.85819344.829770215330.3250160850870.394310781048731622141210WETL
2023-12-03 07:00:06FORECAST20247415432.37830.30831.34383.4938926300780.409449041.0894490413.714.78944904TT0.37840.37819341.9543276097428.5510979138380.514686780050151632141212WETL
2023-12-03 03:00:18FORECAST20247415428.16627.98628.07688.50958511050201.0514.6415.69TT-3.83435.16619345.1943567825230.5530093013080.318163880563051622141210WETL