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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, December 12, 2023

[ Monday, December 11, 2023 | Index | Today | Wednesday, December 13, 2023 ]

DAY 73 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/13/2023 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 38.71°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 29.98°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 34.35°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.737
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 7
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 82

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.87 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 16.81 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 18.68 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 60 in
SWE DAY: 20
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 327.50 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 19.77 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 153

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 2
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 17.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-12-13 07:00:04OBSERVATION20247315338.7100429.9800434.3450460.37389501.8716.8118.68TT6.7100481.7100420327.5033381906 19.7726521520690.7368690030198116 42151217.5WETL
2023-12-13 03:00:03OBSERVATION20247315338.7100429.9800434.3450460.37389501.8716.8118.68TT6.7100481.7100420327.5033381906 19.7726521520690.7368690030198116 42151217.5WETL
2023-12-12 11:00:01FORECAST20247315335.56426.09630.8361.911144801.8716.8118.68TT3.56478.56420328.5570743593620.3413446057270.615134368807911632151215WETL
2023-12-12 07:00:04FORECAST20247315334.19624.92629.56161.60054306666701.8716.8118.68TT2.19677.19620328.3444982326220.2261994040820.557430496244581632151215WETL
2023-12-12 03:00:04FORECAST20247315334.21425.62829.92161.60349506666701.8716.8118.68TT2.21477.21420328.3465193737620.2272931863990.558200604874531632151215WETL
2023-12-11 23:00:02FORECAST20247315336.64426.16831.40664.896384801.8716.8118.68TT4.64475.64420330.5916463498621.4542026931860.659017098301681632151215WETL
2023-12-11 19:00:01FORECAST20247315335.22224.7129.96664.922559201.8716.8118.68TT3.22274.22220330.6094172139821.4640094611520.600892985751461632151215WETL
2023-12-11 15:00:02FORECAST20247315335.04223.929.47164.933481601.8716.8118.68TT3.04274.04220330.6168325259621.4681020114750.593341905965731632151215WETL
2023-12-11 11:00:02FORECAST20247315335.92425.32230.62364.907110401.8716.8118.68TT3.92474.92420330.5989285385621.4582211527740.629958998191181632151215WETL
2023-12-11 07:00:05FORECAST20247315336.528.16632.33364.63225236666701.8716.8118.68TT4.575.520330.4122499714121.355287925190.653273904866761632151215WETL
2023-12-11 03:00:05FORECAST20247315335.45626.18630.82164.67623716666701.8716.8118.68TT3.45672.45620330.442132405921.3717537253430.610652841912651632151215WETL
2023-12-10 23:00:02FORECAST20247315335.43827.01431.22656.9065201.2716.8118.08TT3.43873.43820325.1114013712218.5009584643590.609904470314191632141212WETL
2023-12-10 19:00:02FORECAST20247315335.43825.9730.70456.9089801.2716.8118.08TT3.43872.43820325.1131058581718.5018552390210.609904470314191632141212WETL
2023-12-10 15:00:02FORECAST20247315334.8827.5931.23556.914096801.2716.8118.08TT2.8871.8820325.1166511569218.5037205552370.586516051086761632141212WETL
2023-12-10 11:00:02FORECAST20247315334.93426.83430.88460.47253188529201.2716.8118.08TT2.93471.93420327.571074259719.8090522328690.588794350921341632141212WETL
2023-12-10 07:00:04FORECAST20247315334.89826.13230.51560.55250863972401.2816.8118.09TT2.89871.89820327.6259835588219.8385752000440.587275812043051632141212WETL
2023-12-10 03:00:05FORECAST20247315335.04226.07830.5660.74616614535101.2116.8118.02TT3.04272.04220327.7588959703219.910096350230.593341905965731632141212WETL
2023-12-09 23:00:02FORECAST20247315335.70825.9730.83958.62995542226101.5816.5118.09TT3.70869.70820326.3029306687619.1311262792620.621085803312221632151215WETL
2023-12-09 19:00:02FORECAST20247315334.62825.71830.17358.14703542030301.3316.5117.84TT2.62867.62820325.9695807348218.9541647569290.575846634613181632141212WETL
2023-12-09 15:00:03FORECAST20247315334.44826.43830.44357.96538741310901.2716.5117.78TT2.44866.44820325.8440869148718.8876787342910.568190964198831632141212WETL
2023-12-09 11:00:03FORECAST20247315334.62825.68230.15566.37965705171401.3716.5117.88TT2.62867.62820331.5968389251722.0112844472850.575846634613181632141212WETL
2023-12-09 07:00:04FORECAST20247315334.05226.85230.45265.68949695334301.3316.3817.71TT2.05269.05220331.1295982946121.7517367383350.551262054961451632141212WETL
2023-12-09 03:00:05FORECAST20247315334.91626.79830.85765.79844078879601.4716.2517.72TT2.91667.91620331.2034080784121.7926678354950.588035246236931632141212WETL
2023-12-08 23:00:02FORECAST20247315336.2325.9731.154.87657878752601.4415.6917.13TT4.2370.2320323.7012572686617.7636175481250.642410886524011632141212WETL
2023-12-08 19:00:02FORECAST20247315335.83425.1630.49753.93402758704701.3915.6617.05TT3.83468.83420323.044017100317.4230649301180.626269924591181632141212WETL
2023-12-08 15:00:02FORECAST20247315336.10426.20431.15454.98970746099201.3215.7317.05TT4.10469.10420323.7800360893717.8045694662640.637301094306391632141212WETL
2023-12-08 11:00:02FORECAST20247315335.52825.46630.49754.62051781327201.3315.6116.94TT3.52869.52820323.522861804317.6709862361830.613642201565741632141212WETL
2023-12-08 07:00:04FORECAST20247315335.54626.22230.88454.96834743705501.4515.6317.08TT3.54667.54620323.7651634550917.7968359928140.614388496738031632141212WETL
2023-12-08 03:00:08FORECAST20247315336.10425.39430.74954.45549208098301.3515.7917.14TT4.10473.10420323.4078283050517.6113324331930.637301094306391632141212WETL
2023-12-07 23:00:03FORECAST20247315332.5423.2727.90550.63375173494102.315.5917.89TT0.5459.5420320.7302976095716.2397782630360.486029942581451622151212.5WETL
2023-12-07 19:00:03FORECAST20247315334.9724.90829.93951.39595802320602.7315.5118.24TT2.9763.9720321.2663801579516.5117933888660.590311560792091632151215WETL
2023-12-07 15:00:04FORECAST20247315335.5125.17830.34450.9842139709902.7215.5218.24TT3.5164.5120320.9769171108416.3647558217280.612895485890551632151215WETL
2023-12-07 11:00:03FORECAST20247315333.85423.64828.75152.5800723356602.1915.1917.38TT1.85458.85420322.0971474075316.9358913097980.542760477411141632151215WETL
2023-12-07 07:00:06FORECAST20247315334.432328.71553.20128700298602.1915.2317.42TT2.4356.4320322.5319895062417.1591169413660.567423937255421632151215WETL
2023-12-07 03:00:06FORECAST20247315333.5324.27828.90452.46801167728401.9815.2417.22TT1.5362.5320322.018633345116.8956774146530.528808275320891632151215WETL
2023-12-06 23:00:03FORECAST20247315334.12422.58628.35553.11149719574601.1815.6316.81TT2.12460.12420322.469180233117.1268209616650.55434791997381632141212WETL
2023-12-06 19:00:03FORECAST20247315334.30426.6930.49753.62469438935301.2415.6716.91TT2.30459.30420322.827976155617.3115515616770.562047792013491632141212WETL
2023-12-06 15:00:04FORECAST20247315335.45625.730.57850.70918943444800.8415.5516.39TT3.45666.45620320.7834014953316.2666662738530.61065284191265163213129WETL
2023-12-06 11:28:58FORECAST20247315333.87222.96428.41852.12677715534200.4615.5916.05TT1.87263.87220321.7794134643616.7733237788330.54353421678064163212126WETL
2023-12-06 11:00:04FORECAST20247315333.69223.01828.35515.55049187229700.6815.1315.81TT1.69262.69220294.897382932814.58579935645820.53578987771171632133227WETL
2023-12-06 07:00:08FORECAST20247315334.46623.61229.03915.08806139866400.5815.2915.87TT2.46665.46620294.541275021264.44405684196140.568957734178371632133227WETL
2023-12-06 03:00:09FORECAST20247315334.55625.73630.14613.61852652843400.6814.8115.49TT2.55664.55620293.406836715293.99576878943110.572787630662171632133227WETL
2023-12-05 23:00:03FORECAST20247315333.85426.43830.14656.56176052031300.021414.02TT1.85449.85420324.8724187527218.3753559491460.54276047741114163211123WETL
2023-12-05 19:00:03FORECAST20247315333.49427.6830.58756.99925358751700.0114.1114.12TT1.49448.49420325.1756473346518.5347691829130.52725552880707163211123WETL
2023-12-05 15:00:04FORECAST20247315333.92629.15631.54158.4035707629360.11811030.558110313.6414.1981103TT1.92653.92620326.1467128176719.0481326211450.54585443311225163213129WETL
2023-12-05 11:00:06FORECAST20247315334.95227.71631.33458.10783794654700.1914.0614.25TT2.95252.95220325.9425055639218.93981429320.58955312335292163212126WETL
2023-12-05 07:00:09FORECAST20247315333.96226.45630.20957.56433367739200.1914.2614.45TT1.96259.96220325.5668087481918.7410364130650.54740038013027163212126WETL
2023-12-04 23:00:04FORECAST20247315333.45827.82430.64164.9623037620940.03937010.259370114.0514.3093701TT1.45849.45820330.6363991538321.4789021966360.52570236800978163212126WETL
2023-12-04 19:00:04FORECAST20247315334.98828.5831.78475.2473406207040.7212602321.94126023214.1116.051260232TT2.98849.98820337.5279819912925.3980830299180.591069660503031632151215WETL
2023-12-04 15:00:04FORECAST20247315334.30429.82232.06375.47019404990.625984591.6959845914.0915.78598459TT2.30449.30420337.6753232708425.4844221731130.562047792013491632151215WETL
2023-12-04 11:00:03FORECAST20247315336.87829.1232.99985.638526392760.614173562.9541735614.6117.56417356TT4.87849.87820344.3102420853729.4862217541260.668271234434851632151215WETL
2023-12-04 07:00:07FORECAST20247315334.50225.12429.81374.58191316491200.6714.1214.79TT2.50242.50220337.0875328043425.1406331005880.57049049192766163213129WETL
2023-12-04 03:00:05FORECAST20247315334.1627.89631.02873.31572091669800.813.8714.67TT2.1645.1620336.2473761432424.652218788290.55588963071406163213129WETL
2023-12-03 23:00:04FORECAST20247315335.52827.8631.69479.1126040673370.133858341.1438583413.7114.85385834TT3.52846.52820340.071746877726.9039614652230.613642201565741632141212WETL
2023-12-03 19:00:03FORECAST20247315332.88225.23229.05777.539017989060.129921330.8999213313.6114.50992133TT0.88235.88220339.0391687198326.2887642023630.50081470678282163213129WETL
2023-12-03 15:00:04FORECAST20247315340.56832.91836.74378.1086291351410.102362260.9323622613.7414.67236226TT8.56856.56820339.4134209557226.5111170209190.79818198582491642131210.5WETL
2023-12-03 11:00:04FORECAST20247315335.43827.66231.5583.5213482268970.807087051.1270870513.3414.46708705TT3.43839.43820342.9428561969228.643049714350.609904470314191632141212WETL
2023-12-03 07:00:06FORECAST20247315336.62626.63631.63180.1344679937840.677165721.0271657213.3514.37716572TT4.62649.62620340.7400812534327.3050251354020.658301176455341632141212WETL
2023-12-03 03:00:17FORECAST20247315337.2224.22430.72288.5095851105020.122047312.4220473113.2715.69204731TT5.2249.2220346.1528160008930.6378421290710.681612630498221632151215WETL
2023-12-02 23:00:04FORECAST20247315326.3315.11620.72374.6398777338810.177165452.4471654512.9815.42716545TT-5.6722.3320337.125929398625.1630381512330.239436524546011612151210WETL
2023-12-02 19:00:04FORECAST20247315326.2415.22420.73270.5147035450560.110236282.1902362812.9515.14023628TT-5.7630.2420334.3791887315123.5786493650390.236417823764981612151210WETL
2023-12-02 15:00:04FORECAST20247315320.96614.37817.67261.43250893395401.0113.8814.89TT-11.03431.96620328.2294255840920.1639571195810.098531350857495161214128WETL
2023-12-02 11:00:04FORECAST20247315316.30415.04415.67456.07917773590400.7812.9913.77TT-15.69635.30420324.5375471961618.1997987911880.036186704217544161213126WETL
2023-12-02 07:00:08FORECAST20247315324.8922.15423.52257.22307584332700.7512.6113.36TT-7.1151.8920325.3306493912418.6164204242740.19372851505336161213126WETL
2023-12-02 03:00:08FORECAST20247315330.9229.22830.07454.6954284245500.0712.7912.86TT-1.0851.9220323.5750633860917.6980767194030.4165974298113162211122.5WETL