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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, December 10, 2023

[ Saturday, December 9, 2023 | Index | Today | Monday, December 11, 2023 ]

DAY 71 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/11/2023 07:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 35.63°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 31.74°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 33.69°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.577
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 4
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 75

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 1.87 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 4.90 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 13.78 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 18.68 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 65 in
SWE DAY: 22
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 332.52 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 21.53 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 151

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 2
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 15.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-12-11 07:00:05OBSERVATION20247115135.6300631.7400833.6850764.7603691666671.874.913.7818.68TT3.6300674.6300622332.52382324333 21.534365549950.5768955636606416 32151215WETL
2023-12-11 03:00:05OBSERVATION20247115135.6300631.7400833.6850764.7603691666671.874.913.7818.68TT3.6300674.6300622332.52382324333 21.534365549950.5768955636606416 32151215WETL
2023-12-10 11:00:02FORECAST20247115133.8929.69631.79360.5633550852921.2665361174.29653611713.7818.076536117TT1.8972.8922329.6796698709419.9665069107960.507152411622581632151215WETL
2023-12-10 07:00:03FORECAST20247115133.69229.71431.70360.6359518397241.2775597454.30755974513.7818.087559745TT1.69272.69222329.7291240018519.9934392831310.499161930057611632151215WETL
2023-12-10 03:00:04FORECAST20247115133.92630.00231.96460.8294125453511.2051187614.23511876113.7818.015118761TT1.92672.92622329.8608681686320.0652428323970.508605012097251632151215WETL
2023-12-09 23:00:02FORECAST20247115135.3331.08233.20658.7393762222611.5822843194.31228431913.7818.092284319TT3.3371.3322328.4341472434419.292016939170.564978192656661632151215WETL
2023-12-09 19:00:01FORECAST20247115134.66429.80432.23458.1999746203031.3283471744.05834717413.7817.838347174TT2.66470.66422328.0647044239819.0933574712930.538330648514181632151215WETL
2023-12-09 15:00:02FORECAST20247115134.23229.33631.78458.0076994131091.2724416324.00244163213.7817.782441632TT2.23270.23222327.9328903400719.0226325305190.520945566543691632151215WETL
2023-12-09 11:00:03FORECAST20247115133.9829.31831.64966.4279714517141.3665361714.09653617113.7817.876536171TT1.9869.9822333.6455024860622.1633939141370.510783692835891632151215WETL
2023-12-09 07:00:04FORECAST20247115134.80830.03832.42365.7228545533431.3338589883.93385898813.7817.713858988TT2.80871.80822333.1717994206921.8970017146010.544111085359951632151215WETL
2023-12-09 03:00:05FORECAST20247115133.69230.57832.13565.8871975887961.4692921323.93929213213.7817.719292132TT1.69270.69222333.2822821991721.9590355801020.499161930057611632151215WETL
2023-12-08 23:00:02FORECAST20247115134.93431.1933.06254.9867867875261.4350401453.34504014513.7817.125040145TT2.93470.93422325.8534330749817.9176332484770.549161362335971632151215WETL
2023-12-08 19:00:01FORECAST20247115134.77230.03832.40554.0260315870471.3889771283.26897712813.7817.048977128TT2.77269.77222325.1887421851817.5686572570490.542666802746861632151215WETL
2023-12-08 15:00:02FORECAST20247115133.94431.0132.47755.1069018609921.3200794533.27007945313.7817.050079453TT1.94469.94422325.9364197242117.9613462946650.509331270746771632151215WETL
2023-12-08 11:00:02FORECAST20247115134.55631.60433.0854.6978602132721.3251975663.15519756613.7816.935197566TT2.55670.55622325.653712033117.812561218720.533989933266921632151215WETL
2023-12-08 07:00:04FORECAST20247115133.94430.99232.46855.0722578370551.4468511753.29685117513.7817.076851175TT1.94468.94422325.9124870127617.9487365170830.509331270746771632151215WETL
2023-12-08 03:00:07FORECAST20247115135.47431.92833.70154.3201705937641.2814967553.29149675513.7817.071496755TT3.47473.47422325.392412240417.6753713428150.570705448021461632151215WETL
2023-12-07 23:00:03FORECAST20247115132.64829.31830.98350.0998326281442.1578751814.09787518113.6517.747875181TT0.64863.64822322.4555108127216.154967121740.457111225444021622151212.5WETL
2023-12-07 19:00:02FORECAST20247115132.5429.96631.25350.640794326322.5204738024.38047380213.6518.030473802TT0.5464.5422322.8337234063916.3485561886230.452780417997621622151212.5WETL
2023-12-07 15:00:03FORECAST20247115133.60230.4732.03650.469416080982.5688990254.43889902513.6518.088899025TT1.60265.60222322.7139607872816.2871851621140.495529811446441622151212.5WETL
2023-12-07 11:00:03FORECAST20247115132.48629.87631.18151.9731040099312.0448829943.58488299413.6517.234882994TT0.48663.48622323.7629927632816.8269676974520.450617086061131622151212.5WETL
2023-12-07 07:00:05FORECAST20247115131.49629.33630.41652.5872102035852.0311034593.64110345913.6217.261103459TT-0.50460.49622324.1902664940117.0482616900760.411280152313771622151212.5WETL
2023-12-07 03:00:05FORECAST20247115132.6329.1230.87552.2800334288571.9228356843.40283568413.7617.162835684TT0.6365.6322323.9766268871316.9375088838280.456389056277391622151212.5WETL
2023-12-06 23:00:03FORECAST20247115133.47629.87631.67653.1372779957461.1783470932.92834709313.8816.808347093TT1.47664.47622324.5724190937117.2468948631340.490445535298251622151212.5WETL
2023-12-06 19:00:02FORECAST20247115133.09829.78631.44253.6754687893531.2377959443.05779594413.8516.907795944TT1.09863.09822324.945803890917.4416183549770.47520531744171622151212.5WETL
2023-12-06 15:00:03FORECAST20247115134.10630.05632.08150.8516726344480.8409453362.69094533613.716.390945336TT2.10668.10622322.9810179531316.4241249920930.515865917832281632151215WETL
2023-12-06 11:28:57FORECAST20247115133.7128.83231.27152.1596427553420.464567182.4645671813.5916.05456718TT1.7167.7122323.8928504174616.8941353687840.499888371750741632151215WETL
2023-12-06 11:00:04FORECAST20247115133.20627.87830.54215.0402815326840.574803462.3648034613.3415.70480346TT1.20667.20622296.801523130844.46397846721710.479556942094381622153237.5WETL
2023-12-06 07:00:07FORECAST20247115134.23228.50831.3715.1644197986640.578740472.5487404713.3215.86874047TT2.23268.23222296.896447885364.50226237246580.520945566543691632153245WETL
2023-12-06 03:00:08FORECAST20247115134.32228.97631.64912.8537558001020.519685322.1496853213.1815.32968532TT2.32267.32222295.124637616333.79346002251390.52457185351921632153245WETL
2023-12-05 23:00:02FORECAST20247115130.34423.01826.68156.5962005203130.015748041.2857480412.7314.01574804TT-1.65654.34422326.9632652031818.5048785202150.366629757661481622141210WETL
2023-12-05 19:00:03FORECAST20247115130.1124.72827.41957.0385151875170.011811031.2618110312.8614.12181103TT-1.8953.1122327.2674860791418.6668514751060.357755332380521622141210WETL
2023-12-05 15:00:03FORECAST20247115130.2923.57626.93355.6650904731601.2812.3613.64TT-1.7156.2922326.321736221518.1647289701290.364575276052121622141210WETL
2023-12-05 11:00:05FORECAST20247115130.59623.84627.22157.6052193662450.051181131.5611811312.5514.11118113TT-1.40453.59622327.6567620288618.8747396535060.376267054678891622151212.5WETL
2023-12-05 07:00:08FORECAST20247115132.07226.63629.35456.9844982272880.051181131.5711811312.7414.31118113TT0.07200000000000362.07222327.2303519175518.6470574087610.434084916347191622151212.5WETL
2023-12-04 23:00:03FORECAST20247115128.79621.7425.26863.42373719511201.2812.7714.05TT-3.20453.79622331.6213279869621.0326639545390.309454624249611622141210WETL
2023-12-04 19:00:03FORECAST20247115128.79621.63225.21464.6796110974970.031496081.3514960812.7914.14149608TT-3.20451.79622332.469382240121.5039903451150.309454624249611622141210WETL
2023-12-04 15:00:03FORECAST20247115129.10219.97624.53966.1251415165680.047244121.4272441212.7114.13724412TT-2.89853.10222333.4421628951522.0489102090320.320450421164351622141210WETL
2023-12-04 11:00:03FORECAST2024711513226.49229.24674.211130551220.728346852.5083468512.8315.33834685TT04822338.8183092129325.1440897781440.431220655288681622151212.5WETL
2023-12-04 07:00:06FORECAST20247115130.45224.58427.51874.6450859649120.66929172.489291712.314.7892917TT-1.54847.45222339.1037238372125.3124266168510.370750146716341622151212.5WETL
2023-12-04 03:00:05FORECAST20247115130.09224.83627.46473.3750561166980.799213032.5192130312.1514.66921303TT-1.90849.09222338.2675311873824.8203990833310.357075785726071622151212.5WETL
2023-12-03 23:00:03FORECAST20247115129.42624.8927.15877.6537084263850.952756422.6227564212.0414.66275642TT-2.57450.42622341.0738819079226.4856517775330.33226701434521622151212.5WETL
2023-12-03 19:00:03FORECAST20247115127.15822.71224.93576.1534390508290.732283862.3222838612.0214.34228386TT-4.84246.15822340.0933315767325.8992767978220.253627529175061622151212.5WETL
2023-12-03 15:00:03FORECAST20247115129.71424.15226.93378.0396511464420.811024062.7810240611.7714.55102406TT-2.28651.71422341.3255237795226.636924803130.342912884073561622151212.5WETL
2023-12-03 11:00:04FORECAST20247115126.40220.08423.24376.6244547251460.318897812.0988978111.5613.65889781TT-5.59843.40222340.4015818414626.0830855961790.229767596052751612151210WETL
2023-12-03 07:00:05FORECAST20247115127.9522.6425.29574.79534506530.35433092.144330911.5613.7043309TT-4.0550.9522339.2024766900325.3707662910350.279951123025741622151212.5WETL
2023-12-03 03:00:16FORECAST20247115131.44223.14427.29381.3317784000891.370079482.3600794812.2814.64007948TT-0.55849.44222343.4620550867127.9343797531510.409156247198381622151212.5WETL
2023-12-02 23:00:04FORECAST20247115130.45225.32227.88763.9410461493061.212599082.1725990812.0214.19259908TT-1.54836.45222331.970979009121.2265716890510.370750146716341622151212.5WETL
2023-12-02 19:00:04FORECAST20247115130.63223.88227.25761.5638010818681.157480942.1474809411.9614.10748094TT-1.36843.63222330.3603880938420.3382412179380.377650289864291622151212.5WETL
2023-12-02 15:00:03FORECAST20247115130.05624.60227.32958.5903937682760.661417682.1814176812.3614.54141768TT-1.94449.05622328.332157910119.2371104187410.355718052990641622151212.5WETL
2023-12-02 11:00:03FORECAST20247115136.71626.07831.39753.6357943001470.377952960.8279529612.5413.36795296TT4.71652.71622324.918296036417.4272508905630.61936537480664163213129WETL
2023-12-02 07:00:08FORECAST20247115136.524.20630.35355.3484541783440.362204920.7822049212.1912.97220492TT4.557.522326.1032298663418.0493096756670.61101415781255163213129WETL
2023-12-02 03:00:07FORECAST20247115133.65623.4528.55354.59102843767700.3912.412.79TT1.65646.65622325.5798272411117.7737376076530.49770905741636162212125WETL
2023-12-01 23:00:04FORECAST20247115133.45825.82629.64245.83980663363200.1613.2313.39TT1.45855.45822319.4588898955814.6439337402080.48971931757369162212125WETL
2023-12-01 19:00:05FORECAST20247115137.5823.930.7443.82251052027600.141313.14TT5.5860.5822318.0285151036113.9368079488760.65218264558219163212126WETL
2023-12-01 15:00:04FORECAST20247115137.50821.2929.39946.11088026418700.1513.0313.18TT5.50852.50822319.6505381387514.7393676904990.6494870776881163212126WETL
2023-12-01 11:00:03FORECAST20247115136.48221.5629.02154.68623377473700.4113.3813.79TT4.48243.48222325.6456721673717.8083353558760.61031584336005163212126WETL
2023-12-01 07:00:06FORECAST20247115135.65422.29828.97658.734905811460.177165450.4971654513.6814.17716545TT3.65456.65422328.431087483519.2903689888980.57784350605552163213129WETL
2023-12-01 03:00:09FORECAST20247115129.4818.73424.10764.2507215359190.177165450.6171654513.1113.72716545TT-2.5240.4822332.1800700132621.3428091782040.33425316088178162213127.5WETL
2023-11-30 23:00:05FORECAST20247115124.13415.99820.06657.4775533134340.125984320.4559843212.4812.93598432TT-7.86639.13422327.5691155647718.8278713037080.16623532323464161212124WETL
2023-11-30 19:00:04FORECAST20247115125.93415.99820.96653.4687249112510.192913490.6429134913.113.74291349TT-6.06646.93422324.8024299622817.3667717781590.21564976776056161213126WETL
2023-11-30 15:00:03FORECAST20247115128.88622.06425.47565.9603414691530.940945391.4309453914.0115.44094539TT-3.11454.88622333.3314397560521.9866555887130.312671610409551622141210WETL
2023-11-30 11:00:04FORECAST20247115125.21421.48823.35152.4167637422660.019685050.0996850513.4813.57968505TT-6.78650.21422324.0717425863616.9867919666940.19494027148185161212124WETL
2023-11-30 07:00:06FORECAST20247115125.21421.48823.35168.727272684470.019685051.7896850513.5415.32968505TT-6.78658.21422335.1843103773923.0363034988630.194940271481851612151210WETL
2023-11-30 03:00:08FORECAST20247115122.20821.32621.76769.88649588093601.913.5215.42TT-9.79255.20822335.9567198163523.4788379156180.122177020726471612151210WETL