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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, November 9, 2023

[ Wednesday, November 8, 2023 | Index | Today | Friday, November 10, 2023 ]

DAY 40 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/10/2023 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 38.65°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 28.55°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 33.60°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.499
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 7
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 124

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.03 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.17 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 7.46 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.63 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 14 in
SWE DAY: 53
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 329.42 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 4.55 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 120

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 5
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 3
D5: 2
HSdry: 27.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-11-10 07:00:04OBSERVATION20244012038.6499228.5499433.5999313.8073870833330.0299999999999730.169999999999977.467.63TT6.64992123.6499253329.42201210437 4.54845723489560.4992690152955116 35123227WETH
2023-11-10 03:00:05OBSERVATION20244012038.6499228.5499433.5999313.8073870833330.0299999999999730.169999999999977.467.63TT6.64992123.6499253329.42201210437 4.54845723489560.4992690152955116 35123227WETH
2023-11-09 11:00:02FORECAST20244012036.08627.55431.8217.1397305609270.374015950.514015957.467.97401595TT4.086121.08653331.684860661745.68498914288080.388833902313481625132224WETL
2023-11-09 07:00:04FORECAST20244012036.01426.631.30716.8974340327060.3937010.5337017.467.993701TT4.014121.01453331.520972605635.60185376506220.385817317704191625132224WETL
2023-11-09 03:00:04FORECAST20244012036.0525.77230.91116.6786505943990.326771830.466771837.467.92677183TT4.05121.0553331.372901995745.52685284883880.387324759818671625122216WETL
2023-11-08 23:00:02FORECAST20244012036.69827.96832.33317.0315788094720.326771830.416771837.467.87677183TT4.698121.69853331.611719866825.64787114105630.414728361669441625122216WETL
2023-11-08 19:00:01FORECAST20244012035.52827.30231.41517.060036151160.31496080.40496087.467.8649608TT3.528120.52853331.63096692695.65763628461710.365643981095611625122216WETL
2023-11-08 15:00:02FORECAST20244012034.95226.25830.60517.1486668690380.326771830.416771837.467.87677183TT2.952119.95253331.690903203665.68805680252980.342211139489691625122216WETL
2023-11-08 11:00:03FORECAST20244012037.72426.94232.33316.7683668321630.287401730.377401737.467.83740173TT5.724122.72453331.433631069615.5576007062910.458925823550291625122216WETL
2023-11-08 07:00:06FORECAST20244012036.75226.72631.73916.7295900477320.27559070.36559077.467.8255907TT4.752120.75253331.407384696365.54430968476120.417032845940821625122216WETL
2023-11-08 03:00:07FORECAST20244012035.02427.37431.19916.8504957327490.271653690.361653697.467.82165369TT3.024117.02453331.48921213055.58575755445720.345109441154511625122216WETL
2023-11-07 23:00:02FORECAST20244012034.21427.62630.921.52206093993010.397638011.167638017.468.62763801TT2.214117.21453320.912145896070.488447842417560.313063262350041625144264WETL
2023-11-07 19:00:02FORECAST20244012035.02427.10431.0641.67143275206610.440945121.210945127.468.67094512TT3.024118.02453321.017216374090.536558689424740.345109441154511625144264WETL
2023-11-07 15:00:02FORECAST20244012036.7727.19431.9821.74652744447420.507874291.277874297.468.73787429TT4.77120.7753321.070024103410.560757608694590.417801645303571625144264WETL
2023-11-07 11:00:03FORECAST20244012036.21226.29431.2533.88004921559350.409449041.179449047.468.63944904TT4.212120.21253322.566148446811.2515725312580.394128980414871625144264WETL
2023-11-07 07:00:05FORECAST20244012035.40226.74431.0733.88447815439110.397638011.197638017.468.65763801TT3.402119.40253322.56924579881.25301318858390.360471406609411625144264WETL
2023-11-07 03:00:05FORECAST20244012036.78826.94231.8653.46334017915730.456693161.106693167.468.56669316TT4.788121.78853322.27456954041.11614646540990.418570758887331625144264WETL
2023-11-06 23:00:03FORECAST20244012035.9627.17631.5683.96703774858650.409449041.209449048.749.94944904TT3.96119.9653322.626976981591.27987339639830.383559389590871625144264WETL
2023-11-06 19:00:03FORECAST20244012034.41226.54630.4794.20340491431450.350393891.180393898.749.92039389TT2.412116.41253322.792193761621.35682629355990.320779146857241625144264WETL
2023-11-06 15:00:02FORECAST20244012034.28627.6830.9833.6657408030220.330708841.070708848.749.81070884TT2.286117.28653322.41623149131.18189433533420.315859818122271625144264WETL
2023-11-06 11:00:03FORECAST20244012034.57426.04230.3088.28265900415680.307086781.107086788.749.84708678TT2.574116.57453325.627953301672.69706529941920.327150398936731625143248WETL
2023-11-06 07:00:07FORECAST20244012036.8628.83232.8467.89148266998970.291338741.171338748.749.91133874TT4.86122.8653325.357292653312.56755143652840.421650298288151625143248WETH
2023-11-06 03:00:07FORECAST20244012035.25826.13230.6957.54939450126210.228346581.018346588.699.70834658TT3.258118.25853325.120376304872.45446198112430.35459104104771625144264WETL
2023-11-05 23:00:02FORECAST20244012035.18625.0730.1288.07272030484050.114173291.074173298.899.96417329TT3.186119.18653325.482727068652.62753101968190.351663693254781625143248WETL
2023-11-05 19:00:04FORECAST20244012034.82626.3330.5788.15682566332630.07874021.04874028.799.8387402TT2.826116.82653325.540916704062.65538050383450.337161482076611625143248WETL
2023-11-05 15:00:03FORECAST20244012034.41226.29430.3539.0322189235830.07874021.01874029.0210.0387402TT2.412114.41253326.145834055262.94582057420170.320779146857241625143248WETL
2023-11-05 11:00:03FORECAST20244012035.45626.9631.2088.3030852063950.051181130.861181138.89.66118113TT3.456119.45653325.64207910432.70383392959070.362685164297771625133236WETL
2023-11-05 07:00:06FORECAST20244012035.2425.17830.2098.73669543834810.070866180.800866188.779.57086618TT3.24113.2453325.941770741712.84765398160620.353858390895411625133236WETL
2023-11-05 03:00:05FORECAST20244012034.77227.46431.1185.78193411392670.019685050.559685058.869.41968505TT2.772118.77253323.893020315761.87272810342650.335006221196491625134248WETL
2023-11-05 00:00:03FORECAST20244012035.47427.30231.38817.7521490336670.185039471.105039478.79.80503947TT3.474112.47453332.098647821865.8954646900130.363424108532451625142232WETL
2023-11-04 20:00:03FORECAST20244012036.17626.04231.10919.8362169716860.188976481.238976488.9210.15897648TT4.176119.17653333.501958422716.61541720775520.392614056418341625142232WETL
2023-11-04 16:00:03FORECAST20244012035.45625.14230.29920.2713689305310.216535551.016535558.839.84653555TT3.456115.45653333.794032427626.76646197814980.362685164297771625142232WETL
2023-11-04 12:00:04FORECAST20244012035.22225.53830.3815.1442807649380.129921330.849921338.79.54992133TT3.222116.22253330.332139340975.00264266386210.353126281256951625132224WETL
2023-11-04 08:00:04FORECAST20244012035.4227.30231.36117.028945226640.114173290.854173299.119.96417329TT3.42114.4253331.609938578565.64696748066370.361208810833661625132224WETL
2023-11-04 04:00:06FORECAST20244012035.83428.86832.35120.6884631476050.114173291.304173298.7110.01417329TT3.834116.83453334.073683230026.91147108408910.378306359943111625142232WETL
2023-11-04 00:00:03FORECAST20244012036.53629.08432.819.96944141267500.779.2510.02TT4.536111.53653326.791987705363.25793357556020.407832796831331625133236WETH
2023-11-03 20:00:03FORECAST20244012035.67228.07631.87410.321419844200.679.179.84TT3.672110.67253327.034256791163.37545786777730.371585487863911625133236WETL
2023-11-03 16:00:04FORECAST20244012034.91627.531.20810.15892019379100.959.1310.08TT2.916108.91653326.92243412043.32117891778910.3407654516641625133236WETL
2023-11-03 12:00:04FORECAST20244012035.22227.08631.15411.725956735117019.0910.09TT3.222113.22253327.998855113623.84610038423020.353126281256951625143248WETL
2023-11-03 08:00:05FORECAST20244012034.5226.88830.70412.36007693707100.959.029.97TT2.52110.5253328.433225618964.05945993734070.325020932044171625133236WETL
2023-11-03 04:00:15FORECAST20244012032.39624.87228.63414.97625478537900.789.7510.53TT0.39696.39653330.217920755464.94542771593190.246318313320041615133231.5WETL
2023-11-03 00:00:04FORECAST20244012034.62827.21230.9213.87241910849900.738.989.71TT2.628104.62853329.466355996734.57049537253650.329285503393551625133236WETL
2023-11-02 20:00:04FORECAST20244012032.79225.17828.98511.82526713167500.78.859.55TT0.792102.79253328.066928661453.87947906848970.260181383916471625133236WETL
2023-11-02 16:00:04FORECAST20244012035.02425.71830.3717.36472726057200.628.499.11TT3.024108.02453324.992397703262.39348037084380.345109441154511625134248WETL
2023-11-02 12:00:04FORECAST20244012037.99430.27234.13310.42715125008200.728.589.3TT5.994119.99453327.106990124393.41079406098620.470664862424461625133236WETH
2023-11-02 08:00:04FORECAST20244012036.69827.532.0999.522930626695700.728.79.42TT4.698110.69853326.484339545493.10908771619430.414728361669441625133236WETH
2023-11-02 04:00:06FORECAST20244012034.57425.35829.96612.71409894877300.788.389.16TT2.574102.57453328.67542551834.17881188206970.327150398936731625133236WETL
2023-11-02 00:00:04FORECAST20244012035.09625.23230.16410.83640977761800.668.359.01TT3.096113.09653327.388337711463.54771418385450.348016851935681625133236WETL
2023-11-01 20:00:04FORECAST20244012038.33627.89633.1168.700225104910700.68.238.83TT6.336121.33653325.916576820262.83554758375820.48556968411811625133236WETH
2023-11-01 16:00:04FORECAST20244012034.2527.39230.82113.17018997712500.878.018.88TT2.25105.2553328.987133849984.33282305283410.314460210494741625133236WETL
2023-11-01 12:00:05FORECAST20244012037.54429.31833.43112.1248385455580.153543391.173543396.958.12354339TT5.544103.54453328.272169624183.98024705569310.451119012580681625143248WETH
2023-11-01 08:00:03FORECAST20244012034.82627.78831.30710.9120807460650.145669371.175669376.57.67566937TT2.826106.82653327.440326208933.57305527910980.337161482076611625143248WETL
2023-11-01 04:00:07FORECAST20244012035.43830.12832.78310.2516938009410.098425250.728425257.348.06842525TT3.438108.43853326.986281095753.35216323090210.361946730896361625133236WETH
2023-11-01 00:00:06FORECAST20244012035.43830.03832.7387.167240881890400.786.547.32TT3.438103.43853324.855468706692.32831739602020.361946730896361625134248WETH
2023-10-31 20:00:03FORECAST20244012036.21230.18233.1976.631430132635700.736.727.45TT4.212100.21253324.483613228972.15179041031310.394128980414871625134248WETH
2023-10-31 16:00:04FORECAST20244012037.90428.11233.00817.0457271952470.661417681.911417687.088.99141768TT5.904107.90453331.621289270135.65272602903460.466748507321711625152240WETL
2023-10-31 12:00:04FORECAST20244012043.19628.59835.89710.891538320200.687.998.67TT11.196114.19653327.426213860353.56617515529810.689902781449541635133240.5WETH
2023-10-31 08:00:05FORECAST20244012043.19629.1236.15810.69295189621700.718.329.03TT11.196119.19653327.289749894583.49969355174760.689902781449541635133240.5WETH
2023-10-31 04:00:07FORECAST20244012036.9525.73631.34313.03014389370600.988.589.56TT4.9588.9553328.891459942614.28550304846340.425506448917011625133236WETL
2023-10-31 00:00:04FORECAST20244012027.82426.70827.26615.39688154942901.159.610.75TT-4.17685.82453330.503757422315.08872720467250.117675835534111615142228WETL
2023-10-30 20:00:03FORECAST20244012033.22430.07431.64916.2053421728101.228.8210.04TT1.224101.22453331.052289532695.36481562896940.275750086368441625142232WETL
2023-10-30 16:00:04FORECAST20244012036.08634.46635.276001.228.779.99TT4.086107.08653319.8392285849300.388833902313481625145280WETH
2023-10-30 12:00:06FORECAST20244012035.0633.85434.45716.40900780108501.919.3911.3TT3.06121.0653331.190297008025.43450416724820.34656201737371625152240WETL
2023-10-30 08:00:05FORECAST20244012035.0633.85434.45713.3300668879101.898.9710.86TT3.06113.0653329.096313794294.38687587544260.34656201737371625153260WETH
2023-10-30 04:00:06FORECAST20244012031.11830.86630.99220.40202607765501.639.3510.98TT-0.88296.11853333.881666509236.81186246697240.20440481292361615152235WETL