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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, November 8, 2023

[ Tuesday, November 7, 2023 | Index | Today | Thursday, November 9, 2023 ]

DAY 39 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/09/2023 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 36.44°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 24.04°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 30.24°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.366
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 4
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 135

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.05 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.30 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 7.31 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.61 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 16 in
SWE DAY: 54
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 331.69 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 5.19 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 119

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 5
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 2
D5: 2
HSdry: 16.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-11-09 07:00:04OBSERVATION20243911936.4400624.0400430.2400515.6495750.0500000000000680.300000000000077.317.6100000000001TT4.44006135.4400654331.68885515673 5.19078961543940.3659694454437316 25122216WETL
2023-11-09 03:00:04OBSERVATION20243911936.4400624.0400430.2400515.6495750.0500000000000680.300000000000077.317.6100000000001TT4.44006135.4400654331.68885515673 5.19078961543940.3659694454437316 25122216WETL
2023-11-08 11:00:02FORECAST20243911935.58223.30629.44415.927577600.257.317.56TT3.582134.58254331.87676757565.28599296919750.334147725720271625122216WETL
2023-11-08 07:00:05FORECAST20243911935.22223.32429.27315.89069886666700.257.317.56TT3.222134.22254331.851847484845.27335777672860.321128377799171625122216WETL
2023-11-08 03:00:06FORECAST20243911933.38621.72227.55415.93635646666700.257.317.56TT1.386132.38654331.882699380985.28900100245490.258347799961991625122216WETL
2023-11-07 23:00:01FORECAST20243911934.57421.84828.211000.937.318.24TT2.574132.57454320.8938544580800.298246643982141625135260WETL
2023-11-07 19:00:02FORECAST20243911935.27622.0128.643000.937.318.24TT3.276133.27654320.8938544580800.323067827006881625135260WETL
2023-11-07 15:00:02FORECAST20243911936.37422.76629.57000.937.318.24TT4.374134.37454320.8938544580800.363483146549741625135260WETL
2023-11-07 11:00:02FORECAST20243911935.61823.01829.3182.396627028133400.937.318.24TT3.618133.61854322.574988626140.773091936341240.33546103062561625134248WETL
2023-11-07 07:00:05FORECAST20243911934.84422.02828.4362.448165351131400.967.318.27TT2.844133.84454322.611028332140.789805141455620.307690843882391625134248WETL
2023-11-07 03:00:05FORECAST20243911936.0523.61229.8311.900940291544500.817.318.12TT4.05135.0554322.228123923710.612536423835390.351373581898471625134248WETL
2023-11-06 23:00:03FORECAST20243911935.45624.00829.7322.431762049848902.247.319.55TT3.456134.45654322.599558347430.78448536328730.329567205288991625154280WETL
2023-11-06 19:00:03FORECAST20243911934.21421.8328.0222.816381138444802.277.319.58TT2.214132.21454322.868376961820.909320407075550.285863850050471625154280WETL
2023-11-06 15:00:02FORECAST20243911934.37623.70229.0392.379135510168602.187.319.49TT2.376133.37654322.562756089350.767420507270030.291405865277621625154280WETL
2023-11-06 11:00:03FORECAST20243911933.47621.3827.4287.060731695374102.247.319.55TT1.476132.47654325.817471601062.30050974864030.26127093371111625154280WETL
2023-11-06 07:00:06FORECAST20243911936.12224.63830.386.903664120695602.327.319.63TT4.122136.12254325.708902174692.24858486173460.354052105991111625154280WETL
2023-11-06 03:00:07FORECAST20243911934.32222.49628.4096.666799629984502.187.319.49TT2.322133.32254325.545092992262.17034390550410.289552969568651625154280WETL
2023-11-05 23:00:02FORECAST20243911934.26822.58628.4277.665105588403702.397.479.86TT2.268134.26854326.234827700772.50062440094110.287705618776891625153260WETL
2023-11-05 19:00:04FORECAST20243911933.65622.44228.0497.880599233917902.37.479.77TT1.656131.65654326.383483993842.57209743392530.267167688571821625153260WETL
2023-11-05 15:00:03FORECAST20243911932.6322.71227.6718.702127518139902.57.479.97TT0.63129.6354326.949461864332.84515590913060.234477824377731615153252.5WETL
2023-11-05 11:00:03FORECAST20243911934.03423.43228.7338.131921192374302.157.479.62TT2.034134.03454326.556753362922.65553378318490.279765403901731625153260WETL
2023-11-05 07:00:06FORECAST20243911932.55822.4627.5098.489759891759902.147.379.51TT0.558127.55854326.803267986852.77448127705080.232269808242371615153252.5WETL
2023-11-05 03:00:05FORECAST20243911935.1142329.0575.748841635207101.97.519.41TT3.114134.11454324.90932577331.86785225967260.317264112823261625154280WETL
2023-11-05 00:00:03FORECAST20243911932.23421.5626.89716.91594423770202.277.369.63TT0.234127.23454332.543768347795.62529184196650.22247800426371615152235WETL
2023-11-04 20:00:03FORECAST20243911934.57422.06428.31919.03472761913202.537.459.98TT2.574132.57454333.968002731666.35698996550260.298246643982141625152240WETL
2023-11-04 16:00:02FORECAST20243911933.09820.8426.96919.25926007604902.277.379.64TT1.098130.09854334.118483518556.43487477029880.24910877359421625152240WETL
2023-11-04 12:00:03FORECAST20243911933.40422.5527.97714.55869498028902.037.49.43TT1.404131.40454330.950205066374.81820308922530.258931069887741625153260WETL
2023-11-04 08:00:04FORECAST20243911933.58424.04428.81416.55715111880702.237.639.86TT1.584128.58454332.301829826545.50197161349430.26480095874731625152240WETL
2023-11-04 04:00:05FORECAST20243911933.99824.09829.04820.28519634231402.767.159.91TT1.998130.99854334.804971159816.79158457635960.278553323359621625152240WETL
2023-11-04 00:00:03FORECAST20243911933.8923.28828.58910.12501181267502.397.6410.03TT1.89124.8954327.926943842663.32026418010140.274932485825871625153260WETL
2023-11-03 20:00:03FORECAST20243911933.45821.75827.60810.446879844202.457.49.85TT1.458125.45854328.147568713243.42811822151340.260684952354771625153260WETL
2023-11-03 16:00:03FORECAST20243911934.37624.49429.43510.2579105937910.059055152.699055157.3910.08905515TT2.376124.37654328.01806135173.36477994649440.291405865277621625153260WETL
2023-11-03 12:00:04FORECAST20243911934.39424.92629.6611.84118313511702.827.2810.1TT2.394128.39454329.101215456833.89694776221390.292024722900791625153260WETL
2023-11-03 08:00:04FORECAST20243911933.90824.15229.0312.43682893707102.697.299.98TT1.908125.90854329.507584496934.09802946185570.275534346728291625153260WETL
2023-11-03 04:00:14FORECAST20243911931.22622.7326.97814.98087958537903.037.5110.54TT-0.774114.22654331.236314952274.96221134860470.193562174675631615153252.5WETL
2023-11-03 00:00:04FORECAST20243911933.45826.56430.01113.94425110849902.567.169.72TT1.458120.45854330.533254595774.60903870179260.260684952354771625153260WETL
2023-11-02 20:00:04FORECAST20243911930.68624.81827.75211.83461513167502.477.099.56TT-1.314119.68654329.096731122223.89473315392360.179059529091511615153252.5WETL
2023-11-02 16:00:04FORECAST20243911932.37823.57627.9777.44758006057202.077.059.12TT0.378123.37854326.084687187762.42854181435740.226800623593451615154270WETL
2023-11-02 12:00:04FORECAST20243911935.1527.24831.19910.70375365008202.277.049.31TT3.15132.1554328.323513835993.51429400962990.318550017984441625153260WETL
2023-11-02 08:00:03FORECAST20243911934.41225.73630.0749.683617826695702.247.199.43TT2.412124.41254327.624096319293.17258653957260.292644191050511625153260WETL
2023-11-02 04:00:06FORECAST20243911932.64827.93230.2912.7861277487730.07874022.34874026.829.1687402TT0.648117.64854329.745601740194.2161693884460.23503163433431615153252.5WETL
2023-11-02 00:00:03FORECAST20243911932.37825.48428.93110.9256585776180.098425251.928425257.099.01842525TT0.378128.37854328.475414713973.58881023230630.226800623593451615153252.5WETL
2023-11-01 20:00:04FORECAST20243911934.98828.16631.5778.97712270491070.110236281.780236287.068.84023628TT2.988132.98854327.138651421692.93676381533150.31278085746421625153260WETL
2023-11-01 16:00:04FORECAST20243911932.77427.89630.33513.2315915771250.389763992.119763996.778.88976399TT0.774120.77454330.048840989044.36707146447040.23892843404471615153252.5WETL
2023-11-01 12:00:05FORECAST20243911934.23228.45431.34311.5254214712260.318897812.068897815.917.97889781TT2.232116.23254328.885543047323.79054449941330.286477150454741625153260WETL
2023-11-01 08:00:03FORECAST20243911933.85427.80630.839.99754568454610.326771832.046771835.497.53677183TT1.854121.85454327.83952214423.27759059983640.273730708519411625153260WETL
2023-11-01 04:00:07FORECAST20243911933.92626.6930.3089.68517224166310.015748041.465748046.517.97574804TT1.926122.92654327.62516342433.17310613846740.276136854125151625143248WETL
2023-11-01 00:00:05FORECAST20243911935.00627.5931.2987.287092081890401.246.097.33TT3.006118.00654325.9738619522.37540154833360.313419651371591625144264WETL
2023-10-31 20:00:03FORECAST20243911935.11427.42831.2716.82832853263570.015748041.135748046.327.45574804TT3.114114.11454325.656812773032.22369170650530.317264112823261625144264WETL
2023-10-31 16:00:04FORECAST20243911934.62827.87831.25313.1865798473280.263779671.743779676.68.34377967TT2.628119.62854330.018215870644.3518115546510.300124912002111625153260WETL
2023-10-31 12:00:04FORECAST20243911936.42828.99432.71111.37724072020.055118141.395118147.288.67511814TT4.428121.42854328.784272569233.74065781403610.365515119887391625143248WETH
2023-10-31 08:00:04FORECAST20243911936.8629.64233.25111.2025654962170.066929171.506929177.539.03692917TT4.86125.8654328.664846139013.68188946517630.38190252068681625153260WETH
2023-10-31 04:00:06FORECAST20243911932.52225.73629.12913.2622694937060.098425252.048425257.529.56842525TT0.522101.52254330.069711649294.37747346760280.231170146145541615153252.5WETL
2023-10-31 00:00:04FORECAST20243911933.90826.72630.31715.3968815494290.200787512.370787518.3910.76078751TT1.908107.90854331.517934986345.1043423764960.275534346728291625152240WETL
2023-10-30 20:00:03FORECAST20243911935.85229.85832.85516.222955772810.216535552.486535557.5610.04653555TT3.852117.85254332.076279462345.38725879491690.344045930207371625152240WETL
2023-10-30 16:00:04FORECAST20243911942.58430.16436.3740.0664809238743030.066929172.716929177.289.99692917TT10.584120.58454320.940626195160.0213364293382520.607497197737851635154290WETH
2023-10-30 12:00:05FORECAST20243911950.91831.11841.01816.5123278010850.55118143.06118148.2511.3111814TT18.918135.91854332.271589427565.48657740361530.866016102337061655152255WETM
2023-10-30 08:00:04FORECAST20243911951.15229.85840.50513.433386887910.519685322.989685327.8810.86968532TT19.152128.15254330.186095624424.43551756753130.871018094759191655153282.5WETH
2023-10-30 04:00:06FORECAST20243911937.70628.3133.00820.4020260776550.515748312.895748318.0910.98574831TT5.706114.70654334.883032376376.83229235950710.414588924598791625152240WETL
2023-10-30 00:00:05FORECAST20243911930.2925.30427.79711.49828757128401.746.057.79TT-1.7195.2954328.867001903553.78140736059320.168869950226481615153252.5WETL
2023-10-29 20:00:03FORECAST20243911931.40625.17828.29212.83890108512601.816.888.69TT-0.59498.40654329.781543892944.23403262174150.198550964298181615153252.5WETL
2023-10-29 16:00:05FORECAST20243911931.35226.8729.11112.9414598937920.011811031.651811036.157.80181103TT-0.648104.35254329.851379486464.26875839853590.197046262398811615153252.5WETL
2023-10-29 12:00:05FORECAST20243911929.80428.52629.16510.52360961391501.417.028.43TT-2.19698.80454328.200136617013.45385011299090.15688320798161615143242WETL
2023-10-29 08:00:05FORECAST20243911931.94628.65230.29910.07597843999501.366.818.17TT-0.053999999999998100.94654327.893318017483.30384600296270.213974984575461615143242WETL
2023-10-29 04:00:06FORECAST20243911930.6529.35430.0027.245837541674200.385.96.28TF-1.35102.6554325.945366262042.36174717139620.1781175671381615124228WETL