Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, November 5, 2023

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DAY 36 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/06/2023 07:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 36.21°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 31.58°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 33.90°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.297 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 4 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 217 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.49 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.67 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.64 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.31 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 58 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 324.03 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 116 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 5 D2: 2 D3: 5 D4: 5 D5: 2 HSdry: 112.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2023-11-06 07:00:05	OBSERVATION	2024	36	116	36.21002	31.58006	33.89504	0	0.49000000000001	2.67	4.64	7.31	T	T	4.21002	217.21002	57	324.03379286289	0	0.29730579182336	16	2	5	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2023-11-06 03:00:05	OBSERVATION	2024	36	116	36.21002	31.58006	33.89504	0	0.49000000000001	2.67	4.64	7.31	T	T	4.21002	217.21002	57	324.03379286289	0	0.29730579182336	16	2	5	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2023-11-05 11:00:02	FORECAST	2024	36	116	35.708	28.922	32.315	1.1153964277106	0.65354366	2.83354366	4.64	7.47354366	T	T	3.708	216.708	57	324.8085870556	0.36229033769154	0.27870509486556	16	2	5	2	5	4	2	90	WET	H
2023-11-05 07:00:05	FORECAST	2024	36	116	34.7	28.742	31.721	1.0133261137622	0.54724439	2.72724439	4.64	7.36724439	T	T	2.7	215.7	57	324.73777658019	0.3290652691338	0.24315673927741	16	1	5	2	5	4	2	80	WET	L
2023-11-05 03:00:04	FORECAST	2024	36	116	35.816	30.002	32.909	0	0.68503974	2.86503974	4.64	7.50503974	T	T	3.816	216.816	57	324.03379286289	0	0.2826585307024	16	2	5	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2023-11-05 00:00:02	FORECAST	2024	36	116	37.256	29.498	33.377	8.7313744719999	0.60236253	2.72236253	4.64	7.36236253	T	T	5.256	214.256	58	331.05659162746	2.8905790729233	0.33776900181899	16	2	5	2	5	3	2	67.5	WET	H
2023-11-04 20:00:02	FORECAST	2024	36	116	37.652	29.642	33.647	10.409547413971	0.52755934	2.80755934	4.64	7.44755934	T	T	5.652	214.652	58	332.19160671905	3.4579642806652	0.35362555482019	16	2	5	2	5	3	2	67.5	WET	H
2023-11-04 16:00:01	FORECAST	2024	36	116	37.67	29.57	33.62	11.065859872705	0.44881914	2.72881914	4.64	7.36881914	T	T	5.67	214.67	58	332.63418255356	3.6808832530093	0.35435262972786	16	2	5	2	5	3	2	67.5	WET	H
2023-11-04 12:00:02	FORECAST	2024	36	116	37.634	30.884	34.259	8.8144768	0.47637821	2.75637821	4.64	7.39637821	T	T	5.634	214.634	58	331.11291096676	2.918587071897	0.35289901324713	16	2	5	2	5	3	2	67.5	WET	H
2023-11-04 08:00:02	FORECAST	2024	36	116	36.878	30.596	33.737	8.8886704	0.53543336	2.98543336	4.64	7.62543336	T	T	4.878	212.878	58	331.16318272192	2.9436003798301	0.32289656089568	16	2	5	2	5	3	2	67.5	WET	H
2023-11-04 04:00:05	FORECAST	2024	36	116	37.436	31.694	34.565	10.512878178011	0.44094512	2.51094512	4.64	7.15094512	T	T	5.436	214.436	58	332.26133543042	3.4930229426434	0.34494293233425	16	2	5	2	5	3	2	67.5	WET	H
2023-11-04 00:00:02	FORECAST	2024	36	116	36.734	30.884	33.809	0.81826044703165	0.3543309	3.0043309	4.64	7.6443309	T	T	4.734	209.734	58	325.63896040224	0.26645748130966	0.31730287565518	16	2	5	2	5	4	2	90	WET	H
2023-11-03 20:00:02	FORECAST	2024	36	116	35.996	30.308	33.152	0.72889384051904	0.33858286	2.75858286	4.64	7.39858286	T	T	3.996	208.996	58	325.57715253279	0.23731118109488	0.28930679553142	16	2	5	2	5	4	2	90	WET	H
2023-11-03 16:00:03	FORECAST	2024	36	116	36.068	30.686	33.377	0.03713103596568	0.38976399	2.74976399	4.64	7.38976399	T	T	4.068	209.068	58	325.09823955795	0.012071234425405	0.29198650206047	16	2	5	2	5	4	2	90	WET	H
2023-11-03 12:00:03	FORECAST	2024	36	116	36.392	31.478	33.935	1.0204945410848	0.4724412	2.6424412	4.64	7.2824412	T	T	4.392	210.392	58	325.77877806908	0.33245546462076	0.3041856590532	16	2	5	2	5	4	2	90	WET	H
2023-11-03 08:00:03	FORECAST	2024	36	116	35.564	30.866	33.215	1.6845275109294	0.59842552	2.64842552	4.64	7.28842552	T	T	3.564	209.564	58	326.23736278227	0.54955581269979	0.27347603777361	16	2	5	2	5	4	2	90	WET	H
2023-11-03 04:00:11	FORECAST	2024	36	116	34.052	29.57	31.811	2.0190440222347	0.7480319	2.8680319	4.64	7.5080319	T	T	2.052	205.052	58	326.46808886729	0.65915344327788	0.22166615765401	16	1	5	2	5	4	2	80	WET	L
2023-11-03 00:00:03	FORECAST	2024	36	116	34.754	30.848	32.801	3.1183965992037	0.93307137	3.10307137	4.06	7.16307137	T	T	2.754	204.754	58	327.22496604268	1.020417221282	0.24499702194163	16	1	5	2	5	4	2	80	WET	H
2023-11-02 20:00:03	FORECAST	2024	36	116	35.744	31.442	33.593	1.7381458598931	0.78346499	3.11346499	3.98	7.09346499	T	T	3.744	205.744	58	326.27435816229	0.56711242482905	0.28001991507122	16	2	5	2	5	4	2	90	WET	H
2023-11-02 16:00:02	FORECAST	2024	36	116	35.6	30.56	33.08	0	0.88582725	3.06582725	3.98	7.04582725	T	T	3.6	207.6	58	325.07250963822	0	0.27477874259719	16	2	5	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2023-11-02 12:00:03	FORECAST	2024	36	116	36.932	32.27	34.601	1.8344719047775	0.92519735	3.05519735	3.98	7.03519735	T	T	4.932	209.932	58	326.34080817723	0.59866304398349	0.32500464679708	16	2	5	2	5	4	2	90	WET	H
2023-11-02 08:00:02	FORECAST	2024	36	116	36.032	31.28	33.656	0.37929115452965	0.82283509	3.00283509	4.19	7.19283509	T	T	4.032	207.032	58	325.33522494466	0.12339677307843	0.290645205646	16	2	5	2	5	4	2	90	WET	H
2023-11-02 04:00:05	FORECAST	2024	36	116	35.024	30.182	32.603	2.7737910808405	0.85433117	2.64433117	4.18	6.82433117	T	T	3.024	204.024	58	326.98794100366	0.90699623429837	0.25430958972128	16	2	5	2	5	4	2	90	WET	H
2023-11-02 00:00:03	FORECAST	2024	36	116	36.716	30.686	33.701	2.851431141088	0.91338632	2.63338632	4.46	7.09338632	T	T	4.716	208.716	58	327.04136115271	0.93253592161464	0.3166065536457	16	2	5	2	5	4	2	90	WET	H
2023-11-01 20:00:03	FORECAST	2024	36	116	37.22	31.028	34.124	1.6493357162357	0.77559097	2.45559097	4.6	7.05559097	T	T	5.22	210.22	58	326.21307854572	0.53803488154865	0.33634115475329	16	2	5	2	5	4	2	90	WET	H
2023-11-01 16:00:03	FORECAST	2024	36	116	36.014	28.778	32.396	3.3257703822734	0.95669343	2.36669343	4.4	6.76669343	T	T	4.014	204.014	58	327.36750100137	1.0887491389492	0.28997563891373	16	2	5	2	5	4	2	90	WET	H
2023-11-01 12:00:04	FORECAST	2024	36	116	34.736	29.408	32.072	1.7295765176032	0.73228386	1.73228386	4.18	5.91228386	T	T	2.736	200.736	58	326.26844585907	0.56430624239275	0.24438276436623	16	1	5	2	5	4	2	80	WET	H
2023-11-01 08:00:03	FORECAST	2024	36	116	36.122	30.146	33.134	0.30305606317674	0.69685077	1.58685077	3.9	5.48685077	T	F	4.122	205.122	58	325.28244117304	0.098578816042421	0.29400382723699	16	2	5	2	5	4	2	90	WET	M
2023-11-01 04:00:06	FORECAST	2024	36	116	35.636	30.938	33.287	3.0767213518486	0.85039416	2.33039416	4.18	6.51039416	T	T	3.636	204.636	58	327.19631218569	1.0066918799478	0.27608449562229	16	2	5	2	5	4	2	90	WET	H
2023-11-01 00:00:04	FORECAST	2024	36	116	35.834	30.902	33.368	1.2213584440312	0.3543309	1.7743309	4.32	6.0943309	T	T	3.834	198.834	58	325.91757735877	0.39806218516534	0.28332004470805	16	2	5	1	5	4	2	80	WET	H
2023-10-31 20:00:02	FORECAST	2024	36	116	35.366	30.974	33.17	1.3351126820821	0.41338605	2.00338605	4.32	6.32338605	T	T	3.366	194.366	58	325.99615145605	0.43524159611894	0.26636620912383	16	2	5	1	5	4	2	80	WET	H
2023-10-31 16:00:03	FORECAST	2024	36	116	36.176	31.442	33.809	4.6000785249715	1.2204731	2.3004731	4.3	6.6004731	T	T	4.176	198.176	58	328.24172949829	1.5099377308646	0.29602756576729	16	2	5	1	5	4	2	80	WET	H
2023-10-31 12:00:03	FORECAST	2024	36	116	36.536	30.83	33.683	5.1778519653428	1.4960638	2.9060638	4.37	7.2760638	T	T	4.536	195.536	58	328.63717478268	1.7016346413332	0.30967935318641	16	2	5	1	5	4	2	80	WET	H
2023-10-31 08:00:03	FORECAST	2024	36	116	36.842	31.442	34.142	4.8467400240012	1.42126061	2.94126061	4.59	7.53126061	T	T	4.842	198.842	58	328.41062294079	1.5917209105143	0.321494317162	16	2	5	1	5	4	2	80	WET	H
2023-10-31 04:00:06	FORECAST	2024	36	116	34.394	30.452	32.423	2.2304531902189	0.88582725	2.62582725	4.89	7.51582725	T	T	2.394	187.394	58	326.61380305506	0.72849679899369	0.23287084254171	16	1	5	1	5	4	2	70	WET	H
2023-10-31 00:00:03	FORECAST	2024	36	116	36.032	29.768	32.9	1.7663511692936	1.36220546	3.50220546	4.89	8.39220546	T	T	4.032	188.032	58	326.29381712983	0.57634946542055	0.290645205646	16	2	5	1	5	4	2	80	WET	H
2023-10-30 20:00:02	FORECAST	2024	36	116	36.698	31.172	33.935	3.4800658280695	1.43307164	3.01307164	4.55	7.56307164	T	T	4.698	191.698	58	327.47350473667	1.1396293534322	0.31591088044138	16	2	5	1	5	4	2	80	WET	H
2023-10-30 16:00:03	FORECAST	2024	36	116	37.256	31.676	34.466	0	0.80315004	2.76315004	4.52	7.28315004	T	T	5.256	192.256	58	325.07250963822	0	0.33776900181899	16	2	5	1	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2023-10-30 12:00:04	FORECAST	2024	36	116	37.958	32.126	35.042	4.036540030236	1.16141795	3.70141795	4.55	8.25141795	T	T	5.958	193.958	58	327.85546756667	1.3234017189646	0.36605639767397	16	2	5	1	5	4	2	80	WET	H
2023-10-30 08:00:04	FORECAST	2024	36	116	37.112	30.956	34.034	1.7640175339009	1.16141795	3.64141795	4.24	7.88141795	T	T	5.112	189.112	58	326.29220719736	0.57558517467137	0.33207181537724	16	2	5	1	5	4	2	80	WET	H
2023-10-30 04:00:05	FORECAST	2024	36	116	38.444	32.774	35.609	3.85968341085	1.34645742	3.81645742	4.27	8.08645742	T	T	6.444	192.444	58	327.73413204155	1.2649499926101	0.3860866977435	16	2	5	1	5	4	2	80	WET	H
2023-10-30 00:00:04	FORECAST	2024	36	116	36.428	31.73	34.079	0.008294521877624	0.89370127	2.14370127	3.91	6.05370127	T	T	4.428	181.428	58	325.07825753058	0.0026963687190273	0.30555501393494	16	2	5	1	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2023-10-29 20:00:03	FORECAST	2024	36	116	36.23	32.828	34.529	1.3739823637451	1.06692971	2.75692971	4.12	6.87692971	T	T	4.23	182.23	58	326.02299492365	0.44794984520045	0.29805766837766	16	2	5	1	5	4	2	80	WET	H
2023-10-29 16:00:04	FORECAST	2024	36	116	37.796	31.226	34.511	2.2308251171288	0.83464612	1.51464612	4.64	6.15464612	T	T	5.796	184.796	58	326.61405933747	0.72861884717745	0.3594568863496	16	2	5	1	5	4	2	80	WET	H
2023-10-29 12:00:04	FORECAST	2024	36	116	38.93	33.188	36.059	1.4435223930414	1.18897702	2.02897702	4.99	7.01897702	T	T	6.93	180.93	58	326.07101277343	0.47069080866014	0.40642529004674	16	2	5	1	5	4	2	80	WET	H
2023-10-29 08:00:04	FORECAST	2024	36	116	37.4	33.026	35.213	1.5491947947527	1.16535496	1.91535496	4.89	6.80535496	T	T	5.4	182.4	58	326.14396403036	0.50526053141583	0.34350358083097	16	2	5	1	5	4	2	80	WET	H
2023-10-29 04:00:06	FORECAST	2024	36	116	37.256	32.558	34.907	4.9923581266851	1.16929197	1.68929197	4.21	5.89929197	T	T	5.256	183.256	58	328.5102805402	1.6400409687545	0.33776900181899	16	2	5	1	5	4	2	80	WET	H
2023-10-29 00:00:04	FORECAST	2024	36	116	36.662	33.278	34.97	7.9626092205137	1.46456772	2.91456772	4.08	6.99456772	T	T	4.662	193.662	58	330.53502712567	2.6319212546936	0.31452148862653	16	2	5	1	5	3	2	60	WET	H
2023-10-28 20:00:04	FORECAST	2024	36	116	36.356	32.72	34.538	2.4863997067116	1.50787483	2.87787483	3.89	6.76787483	T	T	4.356	190.356	58	326.79011002289	0.81253083371716	0.30281904243779	16	2	5	1	5	4	2	80	WET	H
2023-10-28 16:00:03	FORECAST	2024	36	116	39.074	30.812	34.943	5.6759166664563	0.45275615	1.98275615	4.71	6.69275615	T	T	7.074	197.074	58	328.97759958798	1.8672494403922	0.41250306343208	16	2	5	1	5	4	2	80	WET	H
2023-10-28 12:00:04	FORECAST	2024	36	116	40.928	31.262	36.095	1.8235659746323	0.32283482	2.01283482	4.48	6.49283482	T	T	8.928	195.928	58	326.33328559487	0.59509027600078	0.49211963348385	16	2	5	1	5	4	2	80	WET	H
2023-10-28 08:00:04	FORECAST	2024	36	116	37.13	29.498	33.314	3.025537537485	0.30708678	1.90708678	4.56	6.46708678	T	T	5.13	185.13	58	327.16111655374	0.98983823893885	0.33278187962647	16	2	5	1	5	4	2	80	WET	H
2023-10-28 04:00:05	FORECAST	2024	36	116	39.02	31.478	35.249	1.4064874367865	1.01181157	1.48181157	3.94	5.42181157	T	F	7.02	183.02	58	326.04544094708	0.45857881651358	0.41022135575896	16	2	5	1	4	4	2	64	WET	M
2023-10-28 00:00:03	FORECAST	2024	36	116	38.714	32.306	35.51	0.76638067171176	2.23622168	3.06622168	2.7	5.76622168	T	T	6.714	177.714	58	325.60308094072	0.24953590788277	0.39735117212568	16	2	5	1	5	4	2	80	WET	H
2023-10-27 20:00:04	FORECAST	2024	36	116	38.876	32.486	35.681	0	2.40551311	3.54551311	2.64	6.18551311	T	T	6.876	180.876	58	325.07250963822	0	0.40415183959313	16	2	5	1	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2023-10-27 16:00:05	FORECAST	2024	36	116	46.238	35.942	41.09	0	1.07874074	2.21874074	2.67	4.88874074	T	F	14.238	201.238	58	325.07250963822	0	0.71122106997954	16	4	5	2	5	5	2	137.5	WET	MH
2023-10-27 12:00:04	FORECAST	2024	36	116	41.666	34.484	38.075	0	1.21653609	2.68653609	2.23	4.91653609	T	F	9.666	192.666	58	325.07250963822	0	0.52408031834733	16	3	5	1	5	5	2	112.5	WET	M
2023-10-27 08:00:03	FORECAST	2024	36	116	41.684	34.484	38.084	5.1306212549652	1.13385888	2.53385888	2.17	4.70385888	T	F	9.684	195.684	58	328.60487045975	1.6859471328659	0.52485874923674	16	3	5	1	5	4	2	90	WET	M
2023-10-27 04:00:06	FORECAST	2024	36	116	43.898	37.22	40.559	0	1.2598432	4.3198432	2.11	6.4298432	T	T	11.898	195.898	58	325.07250963822	0	0.61898157375179	16	3	5	1	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2023-10-27 00:00:04	FORECAST	2024	36	116	39.2	35.996	37.598	0	0.55905542	3.67905542	1.64	5.31905542	T	T	7.2	194.2	58	325.07250963822	0	0.41783843054063	16	2	5	1	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2023-10-26 20:00:03	FORECAST	2024	36	116	38.642	36.212	37.427	0	0.58661449	3.58661449	1.68	5.26661449	T	T	6.642	198.642	58	325.07250963822	0	0.39433850539145	16	2	5	1	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2023-10-26 16:00:05	FORECAST	2024	36	116	41.522	36.86	39.191	0	0.24803163	2.17803163	1.64	3.81803163	T	F	9.522	197.522	58	325.07250963822	0	0.51784981146856	16	3	5	1	5	5	2	112.5	DRY	VH
2023-10-26 12:00:03	FORECAST	2024	36	116	37.868	35.924	36.896	1.4120156253117	0	1.41	1.91	3.32	T	F	5.868	200.868	58	326.04925819294	0.46038664718973	0.36238496744822	16	2	5	2	4	4	2	72	DRY	H
2023-10-26 08:00:05	FORECAST	2024	36	116	32.522	30.92	31.721	1.8944474381701	0	1.38	1.91	3.29	T	F	0.522	182.522	58	326.38217377111	0.61831387296508	0.17545726274409	16	1	5	1	4	4	2	56	DRY	H
2023-10-26 04:00:06	FORECAST	2024	36	116	29.462	28.22	28.841	14.610414115926	0.19291349	2.00291349	2.21	4.21291349	T	F	-2.538	158.462	58	335.01169657543	4.8946596206458	0.10284483853385	16	1	5	1	5	3	2	52.5	WET	L