Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, November 4, 2023

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DAY 35 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/05/2023 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 46.93°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 34.36°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 40.64°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.702 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 15 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 244 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 2.05 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 4.74 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.08 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.82 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 59 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 326.11 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 115 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 4 D1: 5 D2: 2 D3: 5 D4: 5 D5: 2 HSdry: 137.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2023-11-05 07:00:04	OBSERVATION	2024	35	115	46.92992	34.35998	40.64495	0	2.05	4.74	2.08	6.82	T	T	14.92992	243.92992	59	326.10728677984	0	0.70227488287383	16	4	5	2	5	5	2	137.5	WET	H
2023-11-05 03:00:04	OBSERVATION	2024	35	115	46.92992	34.35998	40.64495	0	2.05	4.74	2.08	6.82	T	T	14.92992	243.92992	59	326.10728677984	0	0.70227488287383	16	4	5	2	5	5	2	137.5	WET	H
2023-11-05 00:00:02	FORECAST	2024	35	115	42.71	33.71	38.21	8.0452248	1.99212706	4.68212706	2.08	6.76212706	T	T	10.71	239.71	58	330.59112606037	2.6596799260408	0.5430655725416	16	3	5	2	5	3	2	75	WET	H
2023-11-04 12:00:02	FORECAST	2024	35	115	42.602	33.134	37.868	9.091768	2.14567045	4.83567045	2.08	6.91567045	T	T	10.602	239.602	58	331.30074819891	3.0121095408509	0.53877162619821	16	3	5	2	5	3	2	75	WET	H
2023-11-04 08:00:02	FORECAST	2024	35	115	42.35	33.422	37.886	9.113416	2.31889889	5.00889889	2.08	7.08889889	T	T	10.35	239.35	58	331.31540700102	3.0194151312096	0.52873568434804	16	3	5	2	5	3	2	75	WET	H
2023-11-04 04:00:04	FORECAST	2024	35	115	42.944	35.06	39.002	9.4758609333333	1.94488294	4.63488294	2.08	6.71488294	T	T	10.944	239.944	58	331.56071454439	3.1418232219792	0.55235123328213	16	3	5	2	5	3	2	75	WET	H
2023-11-04 00:00:02	FORECAST	2024	35	115	42.71	34.79	38.75	0	2.1653555	5.2053555	2.08	7.2853555	T	T	10.71	235.71	59	326.10728677984	0	0.5430655725416	16	3	5	2	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2023-11-03 20:00:01	FORECAST	2024	35	115	42.332	33.548	37.94	0	1.94488294	4.98488294	2.08	7.06488294	T	T	10.332	236.332	59	326.10728677984	0	0.52801805633998	16	3	5	2	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2023-11-03 16:00:02	FORECAST	2024	35	115	42.224	33.818	38.021	0	1.87795377	4.91795377	2.08	6.99795377	T	T	10.224	236.224	59	326.10728677984	0	0.52371045926906	16	3	5	2	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2023-11-03 12:00:03	FORECAST	2024	35	115	42.836	34.754	38.795	0	1.68897729	4.72897729	2.08	6.80897729	T	T	10.836	236.836	59	326.10728677984	0	0.54806879439605	16	3	5	2	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2023-11-03 08:00:03	FORECAST	2024	35	115	43.034	33.62	38.327	0	1.59842606	4.60842606	2.08	6.68842606	T	T	11.034	237.034	59	326.10728677984	0	0.55591529855026	16	3	5	2	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2023-11-03 04:00:10	FORECAST	2024	35	115	41.594	32.27	36.932	0	1.70866234	4.67866234	2.08	6.75866234	T	T	9.594	233.594	59	326.10728677984	0	0.49854372746578	16	2	5	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2023-11-03 00:00:03	FORECAST	2024	35	115	42.296	33.71	38.003	0	1.71653636	4.14653636	2.08	6.22653636	T	T	10.296	233.296	59	326.10728677984	0	0.5265825297394	16	3	5	2	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2023-11-02 20:00:02	FORECAST	2024	35	115	43.322	34.574	38.948	0	1.89370181	4.23370181	2.08	6.31370181	T	T	11.322	233.322	59	326.10728677984	0	0.56728856647395	16	3	5	2	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2023-11-02 16:00:02	FORECAST	2024	35	115	42.692	33.692	38.192	0	1.84645769	4.07645769	2.08	6.15645769	T	T	10.692	234.692	59	326.10728677984	0	0.5423502501648	16	3	5	2	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2023-11-02 12:00:02	FORECAST	2024	35	115	42.656	35.042	38.849	0	1.87007975	4.03007975	2.08	6.11007975	T	T	10.656	235.656	59	326.10728677984	0	0.54091919608877	16	3	5	2	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2023-11-02 08:00:02	FORECAST	2024	35	115	42.314	33.692	38.003	0	1.82677264	4.28677264	2.08	6.36677264	T	T	10.314	234.314	59	326.10728677984	0	0.52730033736283	16	3	5	2	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2023-11-02 04:00:05	FORECAST	2024	35	115	41.792	34.358	38.075	0	1.61023709	3.89023709	2.08	5.97023709	T	T	9.792	231.792	59	326.10728677984	0	0.50645738000669	16	3	5	2	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2023-11-02 00:00:02	FORECAST	2024	35	115	42.836	35.33	39.083	0	1.63779616	4.01779616	2.16	6.17779616	T	T	10.836	234.836	59	326.10728677984	0	0.54806879439605	16	3	5	2	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2023-11-01 20:00:03	FORECAST	2024	35	115	43.016	35.492	39.254	0	1.50000081	4.07000081	2.21	6.28000081	T	T	11.016	236.016	59	326.10728677984	0	0.55520283768531	16	3	5	2	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2023-11-01 16:00:03	FORECAST	2024	35	115	41.216	33.008	37.112	0	1.40551257	3.59551257	2.21	5.80551257	T	T	9.216	231.216	59	326.10728677984	0	0.48344005604418	16	2	5	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2023-11-01 12:00:03	FORECAST	2024	35	115	40.406	32.648	36.527	0	1.00000054	2.97000054	2.21	5.18000054	T	F	8.406	229.406	59	326.10728677984	0	0.45118256790889	16	2	5	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	M
2023-11-01 08:00:02	FORECAST	2024	35	115	41.234	32.738	36.986	0	0.88582725	2.66582725	2.12	4.78582725	T	F	9.234	232.234	59	326.10728677984	0	0.48415891154601	16	2	5	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	M
2023-11-01 04:00:05	FORECAST	2024	35	115	42.656	34.502	38.579	0	1.46456772	3.45456772	2.21	5.66456772	T	T	10.656	231.656	59	326.10728677984	0	0.54091919608877	16	3	5	2	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2023-11-01 00:00:04	FORECAST	2024	35	115	41.144	34.484	37.814	0	1.38976453	3.50976453	2.23	5.73976453	T	T	9.144	226.144	59	326.10728677984	0	0.4805651956207	16	2	5	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2023-10-31 20:00:02	FORECAST	2024	35	115	40.874	33.71	37.292	0	1.4960638	3.6560638	2.25	5.9060638	T	T	8.874	221.874	59	326.10728677984	0	0.46979468539705	16	2	5	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2023-10-31 16:00:03	FORECAST	2024	35	115	41.036	34.394	37.715	0	1.08267775	3.20267775	2.18	5.38267775	T	T	9.036	225.036	59	326.10728677984	0	0.47625484623819	16	2	5	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2023-10-31 12:00:03	FORECAST	2024	35	115	40.622	35.6	38.111	0	1.37401649	3.63401649	2.15	5.78401649	T	T	8.622	221.622	59	326.10728677984	0	0.45976195180574	16	2	5	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2023-10-31 08:00:03	FORECAST	2024	35	115	41.018	35.924	38.471	0	1.47637875	3.99637875	2.11	6.10637875	T	T	9.018	225.018	59	326.10728677984	0	0.47553671105449	16	2	5	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2023-10-31 04:00:05	FORECAST	2024	35	115	39.992	34.88	37.436	0.54367885995282	1.46063071	4.39063071	2.24	6.63063071	T	T	7.992	215.992	59	326.48235834303	0.17750155637865	0.43480568157724	16	2	5	2	5	4	2	90	WET	H
2023-10-31 00:00:03	FORECAST	2024	35	115	41.018	32.414	36.716	0	1.36220546	4.94220546	2.09	7.03220546	T	T	9.018	215.018	59	326.10728677984	0	0.47553671105449	16	2	5	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2023-10-30 20:00:02	FORECAST	2024	35	115	39.596	33.818	36.707	0	0.81889808	4.16889808	1.96	6.12889808	T	T	7.596	217.596	59	326.10728677984	0	0.41924442376818	16	2	5	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2023-10-30 16:00:03	FORECAST	2024	35	115	40.424	33.728	37.076	0	1.15748094	4.48748094	1.99	6.47748094	T	T	8.424	218.424	59	326.10728677984	0	0.45189670239324	16	2	5	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2023-10-30 12:00:04	FORECAST	2024	35	115	39.794	35.384	37.589	0.93301627731812	1.94881995	5.31881995	1.77	7.08881995	T	T	7.794	218.794	59	326.75063520021	0.30486366126583	0.42701085589738	16	2	5	2	5	4	2	90	WET	H
2023-10-30 08:00:03	FORECAST	2024	35	115	39.002	34.304	36.653	0	1.89370181	5.07370181	1.65	6.72370181	T	T	7.002	215.002	59	326.10728677984	0	0.39614469888865	16	2	5	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2023-10-30 04:00:05	FORECAST	2024	35	115	39.884	36.446	38.165	0	1.83464666	4.88464666	1.86	6.74464666	T	T	7.884	216.884	59	326.10728677984	0	0.43055061657805	16	2	5	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2023-10-30 00:00:04	FORECAST	2024	35	115	40.37	35.672	38.021	0	1.02755961	2.99755961	2.16	5.15755961	T	F	8.37	208.37	59	326.10728677984	0	0.44975477510929	16	2	5	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	M
2023-10-29 20:00:03	FORECAST	2024	35	115	39.56	34.898	37.229	1.4027212701666	1.40157556	3.46157556	2.35	5.81157556	T	T	7.56	208.56	59	327.07393723856	0.45879356868166	0.41783562601241	16	2	5	2	5	4	2	90	WET	H
2023-10-29 16:00:04	FORECAST	2024	35	115	39.776	35.042	37.409	0	0.54330738	3.06330738	2.26	5.32330738	T	T	7.776	209.776	59	326.10728677984	0	0.42630359890341	16	2	5	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2023-10-29 12:00:04	FORECAST	2024	35	115	38.624	35.474	37.049	0.083330865930882	0.64173263	3.39173263	2.44	5.83173263	T	T	6.624	204.624	59	326.16480844635	0.027179595924014	0.38162706228466	16	2	5	2	5	4	2	90	WET	H
2023-10-29 08:00:04	FORECAST	2024	35	115	38.516	33.35	35.933	0.29826612523011	0.57480346	3.29480346	2.35	5.64480346	T	T	6.516	207.516	59	326.31311786257	0.097328149276624	0.37750857672636	16	2	5	2	5	4	2	90	WET	H
2023-10-29 04:00:05	FORECAST	2024	35	115	39.866	34.826	37.346	0	0.35826791	2.47826791	2.25	4.72826791	T	F	7.866	208.866	59	326.10728677984	0	0.42984220843485	16	2	5	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	M
2023-10-29 00:00:04	FORECAST	2024	35	115	41.414	36.122	38.768	0.79037668537988	1.32677237	3.64677237	1.88	5.52677237	T	T	9.414	220.414	59	326.65237874964	0.25817842438759	0.49134991324533	16	2	5	2	5	4	2	90	WET	H
2023-10-28 20:00:03	FORECAST	2024	35	115	41.594	33.962	37.778	0.44627164988827	1.22441011	3.48441011	1.78	5.26441011	T	T	9.594	216.594	59	326.41519742559	0.14566984870372	0.49854372746578	16	2	5	2	5	4	2	90	WET	H
2023-10-28 16:00:03	FORECAST	2024	35	115	41.234	33.332	37.283	3.5182692907067	1.38189051	4.20189051	2.04	6.24189051	T	T	9.234	221.234	59	328.52531593447	1.1558405302719	0.48415891154601	16	2	5	2	5	4	2	90	WET	H
2023-10-28 12:00:04	FORECAST	2024	35	115	40.982	34.412	37.697	1.158266340122	1.51181184	4.20181184	1.97	6.17181184	T	T	8.982	217.982	59	326.90572491492	0.37864389756214	0.47410068139007	16	2	5	2	5	4	2	90	WET	H
2023-10-28 08:00:03	FORECAST	2024	35	115	40.946	34.304	37.625	1.9843781693429	1.42519762	4.17519762	1.98	6.15519762	T	T	8.946	210.946	59	327.47376254679	0.64983178543043	0.47266498816638	16	2	5	2	5	4	2	90	WET	H
2023-10-28 04:00:05	FORECAST	2024	35	115	39.992	32.144	36.068	0.75468327660154	0.23228359	2.43228359	1.98	4.41228359	T	F	7.992	206.992	59	326.6277859842	0.24650052775566	0.43480568157724	16	2	5	2	5	4	2	90	WET	M
2023-10-28 00:00:03	FORECAST	2024	35	115	38.282	32	35.141	0.65184979629758	0.62598459	1.82598459	1.7	3.52598459	T	F	6.282	202.282	59	326.55692123044	0.21286606258363	0.36863337168813	16	2	5	2	5	4	2	90	DRY	VH
2023-10-27 20:00:04	FORECAST	2024	35	115	38.372	32.306	35.339	0	0.93307137	2.15307137	1.63	3.78307137	T	F	6.372	205.372	59	326.10728677984	0	0.37203892334438	16	2	5	2	5	5	2	112.5	DRY	VH
2023-10-27 16:00:05	FORECAST	2024	35	115	40.208	30.002	35.105	0	0.32677183	2.41677183	1.39	3.80677183	T	F	8.208	218.208	59	326.10728677984	0	0.443338016165	16	2	5	2	5	5	2	112.5	DRY	VH
2023-10-27 12:00:04	FORECAST	2024	35	115	40.064	33.44	36.752	0.085137283885146	1.2992133	2.3992133	1.3	3.6992133	T	F	8.064	214.064	59	326.1660552465	0.02776889203922	0.43764662356753	16	2	5	2	5	4	2	90	DRY	VH
2023-10-27 08:00:03	FORECAST	2024	35	115	39.362	31.946	35.654	2.5912409833825	1.22834712	2.24834712	1.32	3.56834712	T	F	7.362	217.362	59	327.89028497764	0.84964274448703	0.41010653711399	16	2	5	2	5	4	2	90	DRY	VH
2023-10-27 04:00:06	FORECAST	2024	35	115	39.614	36.392	38.003	0	2.20866261	3.90866261	1.26	5.16866261	T	T	7.614	214.614	59	326.10728677984	0	0.41994921220958	16	2	5	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2023-10-27 00:00:04	FORECAST	2024	35	115	38.858	35.474	37.166	0	2.1259854	3.6959854	1.06	4.7559854	T	F	6.858	217.858	59	326.10728677984	0	0.39059596668619	16	2	5	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	M
2023-10-26 20:00:03	FORECAST	2024	35	115	39.11	36.734	37.922	0	2.13779643	3.61779643	1.06	4.67779643	T	F	7.11	223.11	59	326.10728677984	0	0.40032016385399	16	2	5	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	M
2023-10-26 16:00:05	FORECAST	2024	35	115	44.222	37.274	40.748	0	1.14566991	2.50566991	1.06	3.56566991	T	F	12.222	219.222	59	326.10728677984	0	0.60243117302042	16	3	5	2	5	5	2	125	DRY	VH
2023-10-26 12:00:03	FORECAST	2024	35	115	45.536	33.728	39.632	1.6064540253117	0.51574831	2.15574831	1.16	3.31574831	T	F	13.536	225.536	59	327.21404837842	0.52565432515605	0.65221003054043	16	3	5	2	5	4	2	100	DRY	VH
2023-10-26 08:00:05	FORECAST	2024	35	115	40.712	31.172	35.942	1.8995642381701	0.51574831	2.13574831	1.15	3.28574831	T	F	8.712	212.712	59	327.41549905402	0.62194677302565	0.46334246561077	16	2	5	2	5	4	2	90	DRY	VH
2023-10-26 04:00:06	FORECAST	2024	35	115	34.376	27.194	30.785	12.747955887452	0.96850446	2.81850446	1.2	4.01850446	T	F	2.376	192.376	59	334.76692730053	4.267594021805	0.23366022398766	16	1	5	1	5	3	2	52.5	WET	L
2023-10-26 00:00:05	FORECAST	2024	35	115	38.21	28.04	33.125	0	0.06299216	1.32299216	1.15	2.47299216	F	F	6.21	195.21	59	326.10728677984	0	0.36591632157607	16	2	5	1	4	5	2	80	DRY	VH
2023-10-25 20:00:04	FORECAST	2024	35	115	38.48	28.22	33.35	0.09812242309261	0.04724412	1.17724412	1.13	2.30724412	F	F	6.48	204.48	59	326.17501749658	0.032005083069039	0.37613881049833	16	2	5	2	4	4	2	72	DRY	H
2023-10-25 16:00:04	FORECAST	2024	35	115	40.532	36.986	38.759	0	0.12204731	1.16204731	1.29	2.45204731	F	F	8.532	204.532	59	326.10728677984	0	0.45618469826378	16	2	5	2	4	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2023-10-25 12:00:04	FORECAST	2024	35	115	38.03	34.934	36.482	0	0	1.56	1.5	3.06	T	F	6.03	192.03	59	326.10728677984	0	0.35915330341173	16	2	5	1	5	5	2	100	DRY	VH
2023-10-25 08:00:05	FORECAST	2024	35	115	38.192	35.024	36.608	0.7560718123398	0	1.84	1.49	3.33	T	F	6.192	193.192	59	326.62874272727	0.24695478547608	0.3652381019107	16	2	5	1	5	4	2	80	DRY	VH
2023-10-25 04:00:08	FORECAST	2024	35	115	31.406	30.326	30.866	2.4535681120915	0	1.93	1.58	3.51	T	F	-0.594	186.406	59	327.79584901462	0.80426944241824	0.15278766435737	16	1	5	1	5	4	2	70	DRY	H