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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, November 3, 2023

[ Thursday, November 2, 2023 | Index | Today | Saturday, November 4, 2023 ]

DAY 34 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/04/2023 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
M
MEDIUM

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 45.08°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 32.85°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 38.97°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.640
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 13
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 240

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.13 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 3.48 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.36 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.84 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 10 in
SWE DAY: 60
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 334.25 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 3.50 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 114

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 5
D2: 2
D3: 5
D4: 3
D5: 2
HSdry: 75.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-11-04 04:00:04OBSERVATION20243411445.0800632.8499638.9650110.4855433333330.133.481.364.84TF13.08006240.0800660334.25423261103 3.50483724039310.6403270924137916 35253275WETM
2023-11-04 00:00:01FORECAST20243411441.4531.33436.39200.476378213.826378211.365.18637821TT9.45236.4559326.1072867798400.482729195690516252552112.5WETH
2023-11-03 12:00:02FORECAST20243411442.2632.14437.20200.484252233.834252231.365.19425223TT10.26237.2659326.1072867798400.5185593339289916352552125WETH
2023-11-03 08:00:02FORECAST20243411441.95432.25237.10300.448819143.798819141.365.15881914TT9.954236.95459326.1072867798400.5050255002728216352552125WETH
2023-11-03 04:00:09FORECAST20243411440.08230.90235.49200.413386053.763386051.365.12338605TT8.082235.08259326.1072867798400.4226807423235816252552112.5WETH
2023-11-03 00:00:02FORECAST20243411441.5431.85636.69800.452756153.222756151.364.58275615TF9.54233.5460327.1381392299600.486708727918416252552112.5WETM
2023-11-02 20:00:01FORECAST20243411441.41432.01836.71600.444882133.134882131.364.49488213TF9.414233.41460327.1381392299600.4811378422232616252552112.5WETM
2023-11-02 16:00:01FORECAST20243411442.831.2837.0400.330708843.020708841.364.38070884TF10.8234.860327.1381392299600.5423808276514716352552125WETM
2023-11-02 12:00:02FORECAST20243411443.732.79238.24600.263779672.953779671.364.31377967TF11.7235.760327.1381392299600.5817058518843416352552125WETM
2023-11-02 08:00:01FORECAST20243411442.85432.64837.75100.350393893.250393891.364.61039389TF10.854234.85460327.1381392299600.5447560431054716352552125WETM
2023-11-02 04:00:04FORECAST20243411441.97232.05437.01300.177165453.067165451.364.42716545TF9.972232.97260327.1381392299600.5058219206641716352552125WETM
2023-11-02 00:00:02FORECAST20243411443.53832.4537.99400.07874023.24874021.364.6087402TF11.538234.53860327.1381392299600.5746756258456216352552125WETM
2023-11-01 20:00:02FORECAST20243411443.8833.00838.44400.177165453.487165451.364.84716545TF11.88235.8860327.1381392299600.5894866237061816352552125WETM
2023-11-01 16:00:02FORECAST20243411441.70231.9136.806003.111.364.47TF9.702232.70260327.1381392299600.4938749559862916252552112.5WETM
2023-11-01 12:00:03FORECAST20243411441.70232.23436.968002.891.364.25TF9.702231.70260327.1381392299600.4938749559862916252552112.5WETM
2023-11-01 08:00:02FORECAST20243411442.81832.88237.85002.611.363.97TF10.818233.81860327.1381392299600.5431727385837416352552125DRYVH
2023-11-01 04:00:05FORECAST20243411442.42232.95437.68800.023622062.913622061.364.27362206TF10.422232.42260327.1381392299600.5257166444715816352552125WETM
2023-11-01 00:00:04FORECAST20243411441.95432.91837.43600.031496083.061496081.364.42149608TF9.954227.95460327.1381392299600.5050255002728216352552125WETM
2023-10-31 20:00:02FORECAST20243411440.9132.8136.8600.094488243.124488241.364.48448824TF8.91223.9160327.1381392299600.4589019368609716252552112.5WETM
2023-10-31 16:00:02FORECAST20243411441.14432.48636.815003.011.364.37TF9.144227.14460327.1381392299600.4692140162360116252552112.5WETM
2023-10-31 12:00:03FORECAST20243411439.93832.7236.32900.043307113.123307111.364.48330711TF7.938223.93860327.1381392299600.4164388235599616252552112.5WETM
2023-10-31 08:00:03FORECAST20243411440.78433.20636.99500.043307113.343307111.364.70330711TF8.784226.78460327.1381392299600.4533602662488216252552112.5WETM
2023-10-31 04:00:05FORECAST20243411438.7531.26235.0060.270029156641010.27559073.87559071.365.2355907TT6.75218.7560327.323784094350.0883869653675420.365880813338371625254290WETH
2023-10-31 00:00:03FORECAST20243411440.80230.235.50100.775590974.375590971.365.73559097TT8.802216.80260327.1381392299600.4541514032341216252552112.5WETH
2023-10-30 20:00:02FORECAST20243411439.93833.29636.6170.151237728973130.759842934.019842931.365.37984293TT7.938220.93860327.242130753480.0494913566794840.416438823559961625254290WETH
2023-10-30 16:00:03FORECAST20243411439.86634.59237.22900.795276024.025276021.365.38527602TT7.866220.86660327.1381392299600.4133256436152116252552112.5WETH
2023-10-30 12:00:03FORECAST20243411438.98434.2536.61700.586614493.846614491.365.20661449TT6.984221.98460327.1381392299600.3756870059863816252552112.5WETH
2023-10-30 08:00:03FORECAST20243411438.31833.49435.90600.59055153.54055151.364.9005515TF6.318219.31860327.1381392299600.3480093933254716252552112.5WETM
2023-10-30 04:00:04FORECAST20243411439.6535.0637.35500.641732633.621732631.364.98173263TT7.65219.6560327.1381392299600.4040194895715816252552112.5WETH
2023-10-30 00:00:04FORECAST20243411438.73234.10636.41900.224409572.844409571.364.20440957TF6.732210.73260327.1381392299600.3651300129086416252552112.5WETM
2023-10-29 20:00:02FORECAST20243411438.73233.4436.0860.41803412365640.287401733.117401731.364.47740173TF6.732211.73260327.425483401840.136875025016660.365130012908641625254290WETM
2023-10-29 16:00:04FORECAST20243411439.79433.33236.56300.141732363.491732361.364.85173236TF7.794212.79460327.1381392299600.4102179026535916252552112.5WETM
2023-10-29 12:00:04FORECAST20243411437.50833.5335.51900.200787513.900787511.365.26078751TT5.508208.50860327.1381392299600.3154194285766716252552112.5WETH
2023-10-29 08:00:04FORECAST20243411438.31833.09835.70800.177165453.777165451.365.13716545TT6.318212.31860327.1381392299600.3480093933254716252552112.5WETH
2023-10-29 04:00:05FORECAST20243411438.71433.65636.18500.15748043.07748041.364.4374804TF6.714211.71460327.1381392299600.3643797289003316252552112.5WETM
2023-10-29 00:00:04FORECAST20243411440.134.50237.30100.122047312.912047311.364.27204731TF8.1222.160327.1381392299600.4234623827498616252552112.5WETM
2023-10-28 20:00:03FORECAST20243411438.98433.63836.31100.145669372.745669371.364.10566937TF6.984217.98460327.1381392299600.3756870059863816252552112.5WETM
2023-10-28 16:00:03FORECAST20243411441.0935.76238.42600.153543393.573543391.364.93354339TF9.09223.0960327.1381392299600.4668322173051116252552112.5WETM
2023-10-28 12:00:04FORECAST20243411441.88233.5337.70600.181102463.371102461.364.73110246TF9.882219.88260327.1381392299600.5018396501416216352552125WETM
2023-10-28 08:00:03FORECAST20243411439.9233.20636.56300.169291433.439291431.364.79929143TF7.92212.9260327.1381392299600.4156600290025116252552112.5WETM
2023-10-28 04:00:05FORECAST20243411438.94832.88235.9151.40992887660150.240157612.890157611.364.25015761TF6.948209.94860328.106062636570.462606212299340.374172943844251625254290WETM
2023-10-28 00:00:03FORECAST20243411439.1132.39635.7530.253145144050440.200787511.640787511.332.97078751TF7.11207.1160327.312180078450.0828574889754230.381001168690681625254290DRYVH
2023-10-27 20:00:03FORECAST20243411439.0232.66635.84300.208661531.588661531.332.91866153FF7.02210.0260327.1381392299600.3772029840869216252552112.5DRYVH
2023-10-27 16:00:04FORECAST20243411440.24431.44235.8430.441398859945140.814961072.224961071.333.55496107TF8.244221.24460327.441534622560.144532320081080.429726099424971625254290DRYVH
2023-10-27 12:00:04FORECAST20243411437.95832.12635.04200.173228441.143228441.332.47322844FF5.958216.95860327.1381392299600.333368116986971625245290DRYVH
2023-10-27 08:00:03FORECAST20243411438.1232.77435.44700.173228441.083228441.332.41322844FF6.12221.1260327.1381392299600.339926959081841625245290DRYVH
2023-10-27 04:00:06FORECAST20243411441.41436.51838.96600.850394161.700394161.333.03039416TF9.414218.41460327.1381392299600.4811378422232616252552112.5DRYVH
2023-10-27 00:00:03FORECAST20243411441.03634.5237.77800.992126521.572126521.132.70212652FF9.036222.03660327.1381392299600.4644516054688816252552112.5DRYVH
2023-10-26 20:00:03FORECAST20243411441.16235.88838.52500.858268181.478268181.132.60826818FF9.162227.16260327.1381392299600.47000819834321625245290DRYVH
2023-10-26 16:00:05FORECAST20243411440.8233.92637.37300.775590971.355590971.132.48559097FF8.82217.8260327.1381392299600.454942722159061625245290DRYVH
2023-10-26 12:00:03FORECAST20243411441.14434.50237.82300.885827251.735827251.132.86582725FF9.144223.14460327.1381392299600.4692140162360116252552112.5DRYVH
2023-10-26 08:00:04FORECAST20243411441.14432.86437.00400.858268181.708268181.132.83826818FF9.144215.14460327.1381392299600.4692140162360116252552112.5DRYVH
2023-10-26 04:00:06FORECAST20243411434.98830.30832.6485.01269246418780.842520141.992520141.133.12252014TF2.988200.98860330.56369017261.65701411866230.223598002245021615254280DRYVH
2023-10-26 00:00:05FORECAST20243411441.16233.78237.47200.704724791.304724791.182.48472479FF9.162200.16260327.1381392299600.47000819834321625245290DRYVH
2023-10-25 20:00:04FORECAST20243411442.20634.28638.24600.594488511.134488511.22.33448851FF10.206209.20660327.1381392299600.516172119269816352452100DRYVH
2023-10-25 16:00:04FORECAST20243411444.9636.73440.84700.330708841.220708841.182.40070884FF12.96206.9660327.1381392299600.6353347630489316352452100DRYVH
2023-10-25 12:00:04FORECAST20243411439.66833.22436.44600.401575021.951575021.183.13157502TF7.668196.66860327.1381392299600.4047930091124816251552100DRYVH
2023-10-25 08:00:04FORECAST20243411440.92834.80837.8680.96389261233980.503937282.173937281.233.40393728TF8.928197.92860327.800231211110.315964221187670.459694281984111625154280DRYVH
2023-10-25 04:00:08FORECAST20243411443.59230.75837.1752.45356811209150.51181132.25181131.333.5818113TF11.592197.59260328.820297104240.806782995583430.57702178957621635154290DRYVH
2023-10-25 00:00:07FORECAST20243411436.87826.11431.4964.17869782654850.153543391.363543391.372.73354339FF4.878205.87860329.996779023451.37895682327330.291012583167061625244272DRYH
2023-10-24 20:00:03FORECAST20243411435.76223.75629.7592.02549941021180.177165451.387165451.232.61716545FF3.762202.76260328.527569110540.665432397471710.250083034219761625244272DRYH
2023-10-24 16:00:05FORECAST20243411437.90429.17433.5390.12993497424510.338582861.288582861.32.58858286FF5.904202.90460327.227485331420.0425182948788260.33119297892421625244272DRYH
2023-10-24 12:00:05FORECAST20243411433.31430.14631.731.27857188771920.007874020.477874021.391.86787402FF1.314196.31460328.01603174730.419392076913320.172111434626061615124228DRYL
2023-10-24 08:00:05FORECAST20243411433.15229.96631.5592.03576645223540.007874020.417874021.441.85787402FF1.152192.15260328.534593790440.668819704437350.16756445807281615124228DRYL
2023-10-24 04:00:06FORECAST20243411434.2532.933.5753.1873900736430.074803190.684803191.382.06480319FF2.25194.2560329.321369734881.04967566493150.199898750360151615134242DRYM