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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, November 27, 2023

[ Sunday, November 26, 2023 | Index | Today | Tuesday, November 28, 2023 ]

DAY 58 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/28/2023 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 49.97°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 35.76°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 42.86°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.936
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 18
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 154

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.61 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.61 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 21 in
SWE DAY: 35
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 315.29 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 6.48 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 138

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 4
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 2
D5: 2
HSdry: 10.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-11-28 07:00:03OBSERVATION20245813849.9699435.7600242.8649820.5412975001.611.61FF17.96994153.9699435315.29086449289 6.47648344658060.9362606485226816 54112210DRYL
2023-11-28 03:00:04OBSERVATION20245813849.9699435.7600242.8649820.5412975001.611.61FF17.96994153.9699435315.29086449289 6.47648344658060.9362606485226816 54112210DRYL
2023-11-27 11:00:01FORECAST20245813839.59628.88634.24120.7380592001.611.61FF7.596143.59635315.432070105456.54144894342540.66623123840955163411228DRYL
2023-11-27 07:00:05FORECAST20245813841.21632.70236.95920.571023516667001.611.61FF9.216145.21635315.312201830786.4862947189530.72585014286344164411229DRYL
2023-11-27 03:00:04FORECAST20245813841.48630.39835.94220.682609116667001.611.61FF9.486145.48635315.392283613256.52313532038570.73525178036056164411229DRYL
2023-11-26 23:00:02FORECAST20245813841.23430.36235.79820.6139768001.611.61FF9.234136.23435315.343030856366.50047392211480.72648200730228164411229DRYL
2023-11-26 19:00:02FORECAST20245813842.8931.13637.01320.4675576001.611.61FF10.89137.8935315.237927029216.4521504291750.78136326633992164411229DRYL
2023-11-26 15:00:02FORECAST20245813841.64830.00235.82520.5703856001.611.61FF9.648136.64835315.311743951056.48608415728160.7408131079118164411229DRYL
2023-11-26 11:00:02FORECAST20245813842.94431.83837.39119.9882512001.611.61FF10.944137.94435314.893593848396.29417225511250.78303950029614164411229DRYL
2023-11-26 07:00:05FORECAST20245813841.07232.34236.70720.622048466667001.611.61FF9.072135.07235315.348823789386.50313872809090.72076945425093164411229DRYL
2023-11-26 03:00:04FORECAST20245813840.62231.31635.96920.679218866667001.611.61FF8.622134.62235315.389850862446.52201575430980.70460408903927164411229DRYL
2023-11-25 23:00:02FORECAST20245813841.2730.6535.9621.38254001.611.61FF9.27130.2735315.894086546046.75461794133410.72774357237807164411229DRYL
2023-11-25 19:00:02FORECAST20245813841.1831.6436.4121.32104001.611.61FF9.18130.1835315.850030961436.73425114412980.72458425742513164411229DRYL
2023-11-25 15:00:02FORECAST20245813841.82832.03636.93221.2424184001.611.61FF9.828131.82835315.793700278626.70822190940260.74692086658873164411229DRYL
2023-11-25 11:00:02FORECAST20245813841.70233.45837.5820.9356072001.611.61FF9.702131.70235315.573769027736.60672847098810.74265339120424164411229DRYL
2023-11-25 07:00:04FORECAST20245813842.72833.78238.25520.482644883333001.611.61FF10.728135.72835315.248758912736.4571283787210.77629015142592164411229DRYL
2023-11-25 03:00:04FORECAST20245813843.55634.14238.84920.444170483333001.611.61FF11.556137.55635315.221135477256.44443463364680.80151232700365164411229DRYL
2023-11-24 23:00:02FORECAST20245813843.2534.57438.91221.6069512001.611.61FF11.25132.2535316.05478536726.82898032395550.79239707097832164411229DRYL
2023-11-24 19:00:02FORECAST20245813842.06234.57438.31821.7701968001.611.61FF10.062130.06235316.171626519366.88311853190270.75474646052533164411229DRYL
2023-11-24 15:00:02FORECAST20245813842.96235.09639.02921.5811704001.611.61FF10.962131.96235316.036328627326.82043386069670.78359659307987164411229DRYL
2023-11-24 11:00:03FORECAST20245813841.41432.84637.1321.9705392001.611.61FF9.414129.41435316.314953080776.94961007620720.73276077284669164411229DRYL
2023-11-24 07:00:04FORECAST20245813842.38633.31437.8521.955007633333001.611.61FF10.386131.38635316.303844281056.94445331564310.76536382409189164411229DRYL
2023-11-24 03:00:04FORECAST20245813842.11634.21438.16521.722685233333001.611.61FF10.116129.11635316.137625662556.8673581326810.75653374090607164411229DRYL
2023-11-23 23:00:03FORECAST20245813841.16231.69436.42822.0475864001.611.61FF9.162126.16235316.370053851136.97519609665540.72395023934267164411229DRYL
2023-11-23 19:00:02FORECAST20245813842.06232.19837.1322.0510304001.611.61FF10.062126.06235316.372516596766.97633998119960.75474646052533164411229DRYL
2023-11-23 15:00:03FORECAST20245813840.71230.95635.83422.143428001.611.61FF8.712124.71235316.438580502247.00703492377360.70787136520704164411229DRYL
2023-11-23 11:00:02FORECAST20245813842.31434.03438.17421.6876392001.611.61FF10.314129.31435316.112542926126.85573477757630.76302657026991164411229DRYL
2023-11-23 07:00:05FORECAST20245813840.96433.38637.17522.443557733333001.611.61FF8.964124.96435316.653065087467.10682134772750.71692918153143164411229DRYL
2023-11-23 03:00:06FORECAST20245813843.95233.7138.83122.048284933333001.611.61FF11.952132.95235316.370553362146.97542810504470.81294413237573164411229DRYL
2023-11-22 23:00:03FORECAST20245813839.4727.87833.67422.4909768001.351.35FF7.47123.4735316.686937674127.12259856809160.66138561169622163411228DRYL
2023-11-22 19:00:04FORECAST20245813840.15430.39835.27622.105544001.351.35FF8.154126.15435316.411495472716.99444823527790.6873499864836163411228DRYL
2023-11-22 15:00:03FORECAST20245813840.49631.53236.01421.7869248001.351.35FF8.496133.49635316.183596655736.88866824333190.70000190408077164411229DRYL
2023-11-22 11:00:04FORECAST20245813839.09231.2835.18622.331511840293001.351.35FF7.092130.09235316.573011784037.06955396097240.64669051806104163411228DRYL
2023-11-22 07:00:06FORECAST20245813838.3928.9433.66522.265974536575001.361.36FF6.39125.3935316.526176858797.04776379409720.61882648827024163411228DRYL
2023-11-22 03:00:06FORECAST20245813837.25629.17433.21523.011601820345001.451.45FF5.256121.25635317.058564555577.29602544128280.57254677317267163411228DRYL
2023-11-21 23:00:04FORECAST20245813839.43432.12635.7824.940976348282001.631.63FF7.434120.43435318.431492427287.94199232117690.65999618482693163411228DRYL
2023-11-21 19:00:04FORECAST20245813836.8629.53433.19724.992891820624001.621.62FF4.86112.8635318.468342196157.95944482480180.55611178493175163411228DRYL
2023-11-21 15:00:03FORECAST20245813837.1329.42633.27825.215393088617001.621.62FF5.13118.1335318.626219280958.0342853675090.56732969496218163411228DRYL
2023-11-21 11:00:04FORECAST20245813835.9627.55431.75725.279501775631001.581.58FF3.96107.9635318.671691422118.05586158914860.51844330504807163411228DRYL
2023-11-21 07:00:07FORECAST20245813836.55429.3932.97224.050546629557001.51.5FF4.554120.55435317.798705568637.64323258709130.5433440653119163411228DRYL
2023-11-21 03:00:06FORECAST20245813832.5427.44629.99325.052709050587001.531.53FF0.54111.5435318.510794633497.97955826742410.37665996452595162411227DRYL
2023-11-20 23:00:03FORECAST20245813833.13427.78830.46124.913617438012001.461.46FF1.13495.13435318.412071029777.93279652528070.40065607114584162411227DRYL
2023-11-20 19:00:04FORECAST20245813834.729.58832.14423.749984485502001.541.54FF2.7107.735317.584786795417.54263375922230.46550549161185162411227DRYL
2023-11-20 15:00:04FORECAST20245813833.3528.3130.8324.667569635068001.691.69FF1.35107.3535318.237347264837.85014192413450.40948105136057162411227DRYL
2023-11-20 11:00:04FORECAST20245813836.06828.88632.47723.2687777930120.007874020.007874021.61.60787402FF4.068112.06835317.241957850417.38183262384130.52297894276836163411228DRYL
2023-11-20 07:00:06FORECAST20245813835.97829.46232.7223.007142818697001.591.59FF3.978110.97835317.05538376567.29453849573210.51919942638796163411228DRYL
2023-11-20 03:00:05FORECAST20245813835.58227.87831.7324.6466949913130.015748040.015748041.71.71574804FF3.582112.58235318.222518711777.84313335805630.50255361769729163411228DRYL
2023-11-19 23:00:04FORECAST20245813834.82628.431.61317.8919195143050.015748040.015748041.841.85574804FF2.826103.82635313.382655531845.6070172499550.47078730126977162411227DRYL
2023-11-19 19:00:05FORECAST20245813835.34828.99432.17117.698870199384001.771.77FF3.348105.34835313.243109590575.54404913749480.49271350799035162411227DRYL
2023-11-19 15:00:03FORECAST20245813834.73627.51831.12717.412143628388001.721.72FF2.73695.73635313.035722598265.4506229626970.46701400116553162411227DRYL
2023-11-19 11:00:04FORECAST20245813835.92429.01232.46821.65059250821001.591.59FF3.92489.92435316.086025874136.84344974374020.5169308660284163411228DRYL
2023-11-19 07:00:07FORECAST20245813838.33631.24434.7919.741250720816001.411.41FF6.336103.33635314.715985236526.21288717040270.6166552170723163411228DRYL
2023-11-19 03:00:06FORECAST20245813836.2328.97632.60319.428511662876001.381.38FF4.23106.2335314.490946604746.1100910239790.5297766386567163411228DRYL
2023-11-18 23:00:05FORECAST20245813834.2527.530.87520.50582761748001.41.4FF2.2585.2535315.26540209936.46477798920370.44669787758658162411227DRYL
2023-11-18 19:00:03FORECAST20245813833.3527.15830.25420.164152014238001.281.28FF1.3578.3535315.020009491276.35211135890880.40948105136057162411227DRYL
2023-11-18 15:00:03FORECAST20245813843.48423.86433.67420.195283356574001.381.38FF11.48483.48435315.042376948846.36237007181030.79938952550355164411229DRYL
2023-11-18 11:00:04FORECAST20245813833.20624.78228.99428.1077922847811.027559611.027559611.442.46755961FF1.20678.20635320.670439952099.01333811804270.403592341623591624142228DRYL
2023-11-18 07:00:06FORECAST20245813833.78228.07630.92925.3980338201380.724409840.724409841.422.14440984FF1.78296.78235318.755746424048.09576922804120.427264931745481624132221DRYL
2023-11-18 03:00:05FORECAST20245813844.83428.27436.55421.105918703788001.461.46FF12.83499.83435315.695874463546.66305146154870.83690749701799164411229DRYL
2023-11-17 23:00:04FORECAST20245813823.37821.45222.41525.586772416520.03937010.03937011.731.7693701FF-8.62245.37835318.889535000928.15935395807850.10017566606358161411226DRYL
2023-11-17 19:00:04FORECAST20245813827.75221.45224.60225.7355625046130.03937010.03937011.691.7293701FF-4.24849.75235318.994960616928.20951474761310.2063809153877161411226DRYL
2023-11-17 15:00:03FORECAST20245813828.72422.26225.49323.492717580688001.511.51FF-3.27675.72435317.401552732787.4566250380230.23682524724915161411226DRYL
2023-11-17 11:00:05FORECAST20245813830.48826.94228.71522.611657477171001.651.65FF-1.51282.48835316.773124400377.16276538691450.29785539149299162411227DRYL
2023-11-17 07:00:08FORECAST20245813830.77626.8728.82323.981057879998001.861.86FF-1.22477.77635317.749262928127.61996346560580.30846083182393162411227DRYL
2023-11-17 03:00:10FORECAST20245813831.02830.57830.80325.320066751773001.761.76FF-0.97259.02835318.700460239768.06951692709160.31787384959488162411227DRYL