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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, November 26, 2023

[ Saturday, November 25, 2023 | Index | Today | Monday, November 27, 2023 ]

DAY 57 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/27/2023 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 48.34°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 33.77°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 41.05°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.940
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 16
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 143

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.64 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.64 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 21 in
SWE DAY: 36
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 316.76 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 6.68 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 137

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 4
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 2
D5: 2
HSdry: 10.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-11-27 07:00:04OBSERVATION20245713748.3400433.7699441.0549921.094117916667001.641.64FF16.34004143.3400436316.75778837504 6.68172613900570.9397339853546116 54112210DRYL
2023-11-27 03:00:04OBSERVATION20245713748.3400433.7699441.0549921.094117916667001.641.64FF16.34004143.3400436316.75778837504 6.68172613900570.9397339853546116 54112210DRYL
2023-11-26 11:00:02FORECAST20245713738.82229.17433.99820.7330408001.641.64FF6.822133.82236316.499824490526.56200377435490.69076343985636163411228DRYL
2023-11-26 07:00:05FORECAST20245713737.86828.433.13421.123494866667001.641.64FF5.868132.86836316.778765708166.69147463130520.65262910536483163411228DRYL
2023-11-26 03:00:04FORECAST20245713738.37229.06633.71921.081674866667001.641.64FF6.372133.37236316.748902637476.67759737977660.67299909150974163411228DRYL
2023-11-25 23:00:01FORECAST20245713738.85828.34633.60221.7674808001.641.64FF6.858127.85836317.238226655936.9054770077590.69216623847466163411228DRYL
2023-11-25 19:00:01FORECAST20245713739.25428.72433.98921.747112001.641.64FF7.254128.25436317.223705751746.89869945803810.70740860466585164411229DRYL
2023-11-25 15:00:02FORECAST20245713739.84828.77834.31321.7068664001.641.64FF7.848128.84836317.195012481096.88530975867340.72959121738921164411229DRYL
2023-11-25 11:00:01FORECAST20245713739.72229.58834.65521.548836001.641.64FF7.722128.72236317.0823156646.83275481874380.72495675757995164411229DRYL
2023-11-25 07:00:04FORECAST20245713740.71232.41436.56321.186204883333001.641.64FF8.712131.71236316.823540100066.71228843242290.76028373193454164411229DRYL
2023-11-25 03:00:04FORECAST20245713740.92831.71236.3221.183056083333001.641.64FF8.928132.92836316.821292055046.7112431979960.7676490958908164411229DRYL
2023-11-24 23:00:02FORECAST20245713740.26230.70435.48322.393856001.641.64FF8.262128.26236317.684402549457.11417876413850.74453902681506164411229DRYL
2023-11-24 19:00:01FORECAST20245713739.3831.38835.38422.4385296001.641.64FF7.38127.3836317.716197073917.12908429244230.7121839305151164411229DRYL
2023-11-24 15:00:02FORECAST20245713739.93831.8235.87922.3857872001.641.64FF7.938127.93836317.678659541437.11148687047570.73287750996022164411229DRYL
2023-11-24 11:00:03FORECAST20245713739.50630.90235.20422.5181352001.641.64FF7.506126.50636317.772844014117.15565186439820.71692216214758164411229DRYL
2023-11-24 07:00:04FORECAST20245713740.33430.4735.40222.604939633333001.641.64FF8.334128.33436317.834600554477.18463195891840.74709392251272164411229DRYL
2023-11-24 03:00:03FORECAST20245713740.11831.58635.85222.426343633333001.641.64FF8.118126.11836317.707524591077.1250181213750.73938912230965164411229DRYL
2023-11-23 23:00:03FORECAST20245713739.32630.84835.08722.5451952001.641.64FF7.326124.32636317.792097164187.16468486358370.71014186738542164411229DRYL
2023-11-23 19:00:02FORECAST20245713739.52429.49834.51122.5219728001.641.64FF7.524122.52436317.775574541377.15693284632510.71759598766888164411229DRYL
2023-11-23 15:00:03FORECAST20245713739.5629.91234.73622.5336824001.641.64FF7.56122.5636317.78390598577.16084160931330.71894132221645164411229DRYL
2023-11-23 11:00:02FORECAST20245713740.17230.63235.40222.3546928001.641.64FF8.172126.17236317.656526848727.10111407361810.74132657137216164411229DRYL
2023-11-23 07:00:05FORECAST20245713739.99230.52435.25822.954352133333001.641.64FF7.992122.99236318.083050500057.3013903488230.73483957393405164411229DRYL
2023-11-23 03:00:06FORECAST20245713742.2631.24436.75222.747220133333001.641.64FF10.26128.2636317.935795794237.2321555351980.81018989437038164411229DRYL
2023-11-22 23:00:03FORECAST20245713739.93827.48233.7122.689056001.381.38FF7.938122.93836317.894431695547.21272456282830.73287750996022164411229DRYL
2023-11-22 19:00:03FORECAST20245713740.9130.21835.56422.4635232001.381.38FF8.91124.9136317.733983626147.13742471261430.76704015573215164411229DRYL
2023-11-22 15:00:02FORECAST20245713741.52230.9236.22122.2178184001.381.38FF9.522131.52236317.559080191117.05546997495710.78724135744907164411229DRYL
2023-11-22 11:00:03FORECAST20245713740.13630.43435.28522.679847840293001.381.38FF8.136130.13636317.887882645547.20964880867380.7400357665241164411229DRYL
2023-11-22 07:00:06FORECAST20245713739.79429.58834.69122.534901736575001.391.39FF7.794125.79436317.784773536097.16124864501550.72760980120676164411229DRYL
2023-11-22 03:00:05FORECAST20245713739.99229.67834.83523.223457020345001.481.48FF7.992122.99236318.274247424327.39142830574130.73483957393405164411229DRYL
2023-11-21 23:00:04FORECAST20245713740.9130.93835.92425.371377948282001.661.66FF8.91119.9136319.795653044838.1136563796180.76704015573215164411229DRYL
2023-11-21 19:00:03FORECAST20245713738.7529.9334.3425.194316620624001.651.65FF6.75114.7536319.670551442368.05388108732840.68794950752962163411228DRYL
2023-11-21 15:00:03FORECAST20245713739.54230.14634.84425.432561888617001.651.65FF7.542119.54236319.838869106928.1343218329470.71826904161775164411229DRYL
2023-11-21 11:00:03FORECAST20245713737.38228.88633.13425.329292175631001.611.61FF5.382111.38236319.765922695558.09944448376590.63255940003108163411228DRYL
2023-11-21 07:00:07FORECAST20245713739.230.63234.91624.186141829557001.531.53FF7.2123.236318.957158469637.71434307229890.7053508397635164411229DRYL
2023-11-21 03:00:06FORECAST20245713737.4929.35433.42225.060581050587001.561.56FF5.49118.4936319.576024086648.00876085344760.63705301304894163411228DRYL
2023-11-20 23:00:03FORECAST20245713736.44628.92232.68424.924146238012001.491.49FF4.446101.44636319.479555750427.96275516757840.59291418161156163411228DRYL
2023-11-20 19:00:04FORECAST20245713738.10230.1134.10623.828015685502001.571.57FF6.102112.10236318.703305350017.59406735890120.66214587402968163411228DRYL
2023-11-20 15:00:03FORECAST20245713738.51631.89235.20424.685872035068001.721.72FF6.516112.51636319.311000109277.88247048808680.67872896328278163411228DRYL
2023-11-20 11:00:03FORECAST20245713739.05629.67834.36723.355298338872001.631.63FF7.056115.05636318.3678719667.43557663127770.69983112917547164411229DRYL
2023-11-20 07:00:05FORECAST20245713738.49830.50634.50223.146477218697001.621.62FF6.498114.49836318.21956721997.36566196319920.67801501366094163411228DRYL
2023-11-20 03:00:05FORECAST20245713739.3830.03834.70924.639402054815001.731.73FF7.38116.3836319.278115264227.86682184929890.7121839305151164411229DRYL
2023-11-19 23:00:04FORECAST20245713734.30428.54431.42417.867369031929001.871.87FF2.304108.30436314.444094569045.61828867757580.49919544087103163411228DRYL
2023-11-19 19:00:04FORECAST20245713735.56429.26432.41417.795695799384001.81.8FF3.564108.56436314.392486720975.59483305529810.55465569379145163411228DRYL
2023-11-19 15:00:03FORECAST20245713733.99827.6830.83917.471970828388001.751.75FF1.99899.99836314.159273560775.48898166312130.4856877962666162411227DRYL
2023-11-19 11:00:04FORECAST20245713737.00428.81432.90921.78628610821001.621.62FF5.00493.00436317.251632280896.91173482916790.616692063827163411228DRYL
2023-11-19 07:00:07FORECAST20245713740.69431.33436.01420.027299520816001.441.44FF8.694103.69436315.99493897286.32852528987020.75966426199618164411229DRYL
2023-11-19 03:00:06FORECAST20245713736.08624.90830.49719.552200462876001.411.41FF4.086109.08636315.65454424276.17174092605090.57738375111585163411228DRYL
2023-11-18 23:00:05FORECAST20245713734.82625.48430.15520.54941881748001.431.43FF2.82689.82636316.368548883856.50118981169240.52223161254906163411228DRYL
2023-11-18 19:00:03FORECAST20245713733.96224.5329.24620.180880014238001.311.31FF1.96283.96236316.104887126996.3792747990240.48409944105282162411227DRYL
2023-11-18 15:00:03FORECAST20245713730.63221.86626.24920.643987356574001.411.41FF-1.36878.63236316.436165768426.5325042052860.34148452677787162411227DRYL
2023-11-18 11:00:04FORECAST20245713730.1121.27225.69121.314099473084001.471.47FF-1.8984.1136316.914833593476.75475428770720.32054014271775162411227DRYL
2023-11-18 07:00:06FORECAST20245713732.88223.86428.37320.51588186586001.451.45FF0.882101.88236316.344565927486.49008774347490.43667858969732162411227DRYL
2023-11-18 03:00:05FORECAST20245713734.62824.24229.43521.863893903788001.491.49FF2.62893.62836317.306949301486.93756547446210.5134983272338163411228DRYL
2023-11-17 23:00:04FORECAST20245713728.45421.50624.9825.052972052477001.761.76FF-3.54661.45436319.570644907478.00619443565890.25801337636322162411227DRYL
2023-11-17 19:00:04FORECAST20245713731.83824.33228.08525.201083891674001.721.72FF-0.16260.83836319.675333850668.05616490646940.39168120583057162411227DRYL
2023-11-17 15:00:03FORECAST20245713738.73228.34633.53923.492717580688001.541.54FF6.73285.73236318.465424196427.48161826986050.68724430024281163411228DRYL
2023-11-17 11:00:05FORECAST20245713738.26429.08433.67422.611657477171001.681.68FF6.26491.26436317.839379360177.18687517884870.6686746866209163411228DRYL
2023-11-17 07:00:08FORECAST20245713736.55428.81432.68423.981057879998001.891.89FF4.55485.55436318.811815600317.64544460273820.5975461434517163411228DRYL
2023-11-17 03:00:10FORECAST20245713735.67223.84629.75925.320066751773001.791.79FF3.67266.67236319.759405221128.09632948470610.55937537234846163411228DRYL
2023-11-16 23:00:04FORECAST20245713729.42614.61222.01923.665014160033001.411.41FF-2.57472.42636318.587687320037.53938213164060.29394555258232162411227DRYL
2023-11-16 19:00:04FORECAST20245713727.37414.61220.99323.15393355689001.631.63FF-4.62681.37436318.224864065157.36815735871470.22093581716723161411226DRYL
2023-11-16 15:00:04FORECAST20245713730.00220.04825.02524.199820378166001.831.83FF-1.99882.00236318.966849755647.71894047067610.31627447034673162411227DRYL
2023-11-16 11:00:04FORECAST20245713726.67224.56625.61923.82957239724300.061.91.96FF-5.32879.67236318.704409304917.59458979485190.19856525335346161411226DRYL
2023-11-16 03:00:08FORECAST20245713718.69818.60818.65326.96709040330400.321.92.22FF-13.30255.69836320.920559229218.6542937330130.0417299748836121614122212DRYL