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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, November 25, 2023

[ Friday, November 24, 2023 | Index | Today | Sunday, November 26, 2023 ]

DAY 56 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/26/2023 07:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 42.00°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 26.66°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 34.33°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.783
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 10
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 131

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.69 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.69 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 21 in
SWE DAY: 37
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 317.97 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 6.77 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 136

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 4
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 2
D5: 2
HSdry: 9.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-11-26 07:00:05OBSERVATION20245613642.0000826.6599434.3300121.305731666667001.691.69FF10.00008131.0000837317.97460154508 6.77468153733470.7828321635416 4411229DRYL
2023-11-26 03:00:04OBSERVATION20245613642.0000826.6599434.3300121.305731666667001.691.69FF10.00008131.0000837317.97460154508 6.77468153733470.7828321635416 4411229DRYL
2023-11-25 11:00:01FORECAST20245613636.42825.62831.02821.8870368001.691.69FF4.428125.42837318.387610623516.96856135038090.54701536339633163411228DRYL
2023-11-25 07:00:04FORECAST20245613638.06626.31232.18921.694145683333001.691.69FF6.066127.06637318.250631809776.9041755702940.62293790973952163411228DRYL
2023-11-25 03:00:04FORECAST20245613638.87626.27632.57621.672399283333001.691.69FF6.876127.87637318.235184710926.89691998906040.65897829352022163411228DRYL
2023-11-24 23:00:01FORECAST20245613638.17424.51231.34322.8275048001.691.69FF6.174124.17437319.05450980867.28321835411750.62781377285541163411228DRYL
2023-11-24 19:00:01FORECAST20245613637.99426.09632.04522.8040856001.691.69FF5.994123.99437319.037922255967.27536808877110.61967635856423163411228DRYL
2023-11-24 15:00:02FORECAST20245613638.1226.74432.43222.78598001.691.69FF6.12124.1237319.025097589377.26929949316950.62537834614944163411228DRYL
2023-11-24 11:00:02FORECAST20245613637.2225.03431.12722.84748001.691.69FF5.22123.2237319.068657235567.28991476481640.58412171335228163411228DRYL
2023-11-24 07:00:04FORECAST20245613638.13826.5132.32422.927691633333001.691.69FF6.138124.13837319.125459863227.31681013608960.62619071614863163411228DRYL
2023-11-24 03:00:03FORECAST20245613638.4826.97832.72922.864322033333001.691.69FF6.48122.4837319.080585040837.29556125095790.64151558063146163411228DRYL
2023-11-23 23:00:02FORECAST20245613637.7626.25832.00922.8315392001.691.69FF5.76120.7637319.057367228547.28457078692730.60901855524501163411228DRYL
2023-11-23 19:00:01FORECAST20245613636.9525.73631.34322.85732001.691.69FF4.95118.9537319.075626147527.29321369105430.5715387039052163411228DRYL
2023-11-23 15:00:03FORECAST20245613637.09424.63830.86622.847972001.691.69FF5.094119.09437319.06900568537.29007970796560.57825954577723163411228DRYL
2023-11-23 11:00:02FORECAST20245613638.0327.82432.92722.7596088001.691.69FF6.03122.0337319.006417128557.26046125853530.62130821374667163411228DRYL
2023-11-23 07:00:05FORECAST20245613637.34627.26632.30623.310363333333001.691.69FF5.346119.34637319.396293201847.44524364185480.58996522521769163411228DRYL
2023-11-23 03:00:06FORECAST20245613638.28226.5132.39623.249158533333001.691.69FF6.282122.28237319.352993596517.42468837621990.63266923724502163411228DRYL
2023-11-22 23:00:02FORECAST20245613635.8724.47630.17322.9116368001.431.43FF3.87118.8737319.114091407327.31142616008660.52060335010175163411228DRYL
2023-11-22 19:00:03FORECAST20245613636.7725.84431.30722.8468896001.431.43FF4.77119.7737319.068239095317.28971683347690.56310861242861163411228DRYL
2023-11-22 15:00:02FORECAST20245613638.71427.33833.02622.6925001.431.43FF6.714125.71437318.958873893917.23797424583750.6518729886853163411228DRYL
2023-11-22 11:00:03FORECAST20245613638.51627.1432.82823.101590240293001.431.43FF6.516125.51637319.248568073257.37514960442860.64311604501805163411228DRYL
2023-11-22 07:00:05FORECAST20245613636.9525.21431.08222.889338536575001.441.44FF4.95121.9537319.098301198437.30394904257690.5715387039052163411228DRYL
2023-11-22 03:00:05FORECAST20245613636.93224.92630.92923.542469820345001.531.53FF4.932118.93237319.560436804817.52324193925330.57069709618303163411228DRYL
2023-11-21 23:00:03FORECAST20245613637.74226.49232.11725.799811548282001.711.71FF5.742114.74237321.151771445688.28565518169550.60819520960264163411228DRYL
2023-11-21 19:00:03FORECAST20245613636.53625.10630.82125.456651020624001.71.7FF4.536111.53637320.910444854418.16930520353210.552107074389163411228DRYL
2023-11-21 15:00:02FORECAST20245613637.11225.7931.45125.779028288617001.71.7FF5.112116.11237321.137161665118.27860397509120.57909809269954163411228DRYL
2023-11-21 11:00:03FORECAST20245613636.3225.46630.89325.499130575631001.661.66FF4.32110.3237320.940329880458.18369937860770.54191591084277163411228DRYL
2023-11-21 07:00:06FORECAST20245613638.22827.93233.0824.474650629557001.581.58FF6.228120.22837320.218692718217.83724062933160.63024409972644163411228DRYL
2023-11-21 03:00:05FORECAST20245613636.10427.75231.92825.288770650587001.611.61FF4.104117.10437320.792306851338.11244307443620.53169711642778163411228DRYL
2023-11-20 23:00:03FORECAST20245613636.24826.76231.50525.084439838012001.541.54FF4.248101.24837320.648450557958.04328676717260.53851238614357163411228DRYL
2023-11-20 19:00:03FORECAST20245613637.79628.02232.90924.073031685502001.621.62FF5.796109.79637319.935282121027.70181218380920.61066377839703163411228DRYL
2023-11-20 15:00:03FORECAST20245613637.4929.89433.69225.039423235068001.771.77FF5.49110.4937320.616747201268.0280584294230.59661907599725163411228DRYL
2023-11-20 11:00:03FORECAST20245613638.35427.69833.02623.647743138872001.681.68FF6.354112.35437319.634853248027.55864290784020.63589452805703163411228DRYL
2023-11-20 07:00:05FORECAST20245613637.65229.04833.3523.439020418697001.671.67FF5.652111.65237319.487290279567.4884691203770.60407128065593163411228DRYL
2023-11-20 03:00:04FORECAST20245613639.12829.04834.08824.938242854815001.781.78FF7.128113.12837320.545476756087.99384094535570.66991907081507163411228DRYL
2023-11-19 23:00:04FORECAST20245613636.51830.6533.58417.937528231929001.921.92FF4.518109.51837315.569500059415.66053681645130.55125902873606163411228DRYL
2023-11-19 19:00:04FORECAST20245613636.19430.54233.36817.928634199384001.851.85FF4.194109.19437315.563121903465.65761577942260.53595787653984163411228DRYL
2023-11-19 15:00:03FORECAST20245613633.5328.11230.82117.515955628388001.81.8FF1.53101.5337315.267020219495.52220313725860.41020422047806162411227DRYL
2023-11-19 11:00:04FORECAST20245613633.65628.36431.0121.93742850821001.671.67FF1.65691.65637318.423384505216.98539023292520.41604829189279162411227DRYL
2023-11-19 07:00:06FORECAST20245613633.99828.79631.39720.422375520816001.491.49FF1.99898.99837317.345820897956.48095552433960.43200097946666162411227DRYL
2023-11-19 03:00:06FORECAST20245613636.89629.08432.9919.660342062876001.461.46FF4.896108.89637316.802264178036.22844088003350.56901292016881163411228DRYL
2023-11-18 23:00:04FORECAST20245613633.94424.36829.15620.61564201748001.481.48FF1.94490.94437317.483510276786.54512639431880.42947405026508162411227DRYL
2023-11-18 19:00:03FORECAST20245613632.77424.31428.54420.215123214238001.361.36FF0.77485.77437317.198092445826.41219852211350.37559992414161162411227DRYL
2023-11-18 15:00:03FORECAST20245613635.45625.37630.41620.643987356574001.461.46FF3.45684.45637317.503698741256.55454234247990.50094217010593163411228DRYL
2023-11-18 11:00:04FORECAST20245613634.89823.75629.32721.314099473084001.521.52FF2.89889.89837317.980551080186.7774690962290.4744474613654162411227DRYL
2023-11-18 07:00:06FORECAST20245613636.24824.72830.48820.52552506586001.51.5FF4.248105.24837317.41931642096.51519813558540.53851238614357163411228DRYL
2023-11-18 03:00:04FORECAST20245613636.53624.00830.27221.912109903788001.541.54FF4.53694.53637318.405410994296.97693435966750.552107074389163411228DRYL
2023-11-17 23:00:04FORECAST20245613632.2723.48627.87825.052972052477001.811.81FF0.2769.2737320.626289461888.03264146917770.35305578133115162411227DRYL
2023-11-17 19:00:03FORECAST20245613633.85425.5229.68725.201083891674001.771.77FF1.85464.85437320.730581341988.08275828702460.42526896494858162411227DRYL
2023-11-17 15:00:03FORECAST20245613636.55427.60832.08123.725236780688001.591.59FF4.55482.55437319.689619858097.58471192746140.55295488195757163411228DRYL
2023-11-17 11:00:04FORECAST20245613637.45428.81433.13422.83079427717100.051.681.73FF5.45489.45437319.056839628797.28432106828930.59495815226768163411228DRYL
2023-11-17 07:00:08FORECAST20245613635.43827.2331.33424.14302427999800.041.91.94FF3.43885.43837319.984694626917.72539825160510.50008693852335163411228DRYL
2023-11-17 03:00:09FORECAST20245613632.88223.57628.22925.39091475177300.031.811.84FF0.88266.88237320.864192013048.14703534629970.38048964726196162411227DRYL
2023-11-16 23:00:04FORECAST20245613635.45626.4230.93823.665014160033001.461.46FF3.45679.45637319.647060025297.56445220171150.50094217010593163411228DRYL
2023-11-16 19:00:04FORECAST20245613633.7124.76429.23723.15393355689001.681.68FF1.7189.7137319.285612882517.39271786635260.41855866711779162411227DRYL
2023-11-16 15:00:04FORECAST20245613636.57226.70831.6424.199820378166001.881.88FF4.57287.57237320.024784377747.74454229850270.55380244761425163411228DRYL
2023-11-16 11:00:04FORECAST20245613634.86226.43830.6523.8295723972430.055118140.055118141.952.00511814FF2.86288.86237319.76333930837.61982364403120.47274074595266162411227DRYL
2023-11-16 03:00:08FORECAST20245613633.22418.80626.01526.9670904033040.145669370.445669371.822.26566937FF1.22473.22437321.971083843248.68262332525040.396096656366641624122214DRYL
2023-11-15 23:00:04FORECAST20245613630.90221.226.05125.2023068421670.019685050.409685051.612.01968505FF-1.09869.90237320.731442310418.08317222303790.294593186528191624122214DRYL
2023-11-15 19:00:04FORECAST20245613628.45421.224.82727.0798355664610.023622060.393622061.662.05362206FF-3.54659.45437322.050091042658.72106350959870.202810337820281614122212DRYL
2023-11-15 15:00:05FORECAST20245613628.14815.36821.75826.3657338490140.062992160.202992161.852.05299216FF-3.85267.14837321.549295373658.47788314115970.192674166407061614122212DRYL
2023-11-15 11:00:05FORECAST20245613621.54216.68219.11226.232406907781002.122.12FF-10.45844.54237321.455693240198.43255654789930.048837671028819161411226DRYL
2023-11-15 07:00:05FORECAST20245613621.54216.68219.11225.811260814504002.172.17FF-10.45849.54237321.159819481598.28953986377840.048837671028819161411226DRYL
2023-11-15 03:00:09FORECAST20245613624.45824.42224.4427.407824328557002.332.33FF-7.54250.45837322.279803545828.83298824022570.095434191203904161411226DRYL