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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, November 24, 2023

[ Thursday, November 23, 2023 | Index | Today | Saturday, November 25, 2023 ]

DAY 55 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/25/2023 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 35.23°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 23.31°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 29.27°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.460
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 3
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 120

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.44 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.34 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.78 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 22 in
SWE DAY: 38
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 319.48 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 7.01 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 135

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 4
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 2
D5: 2
HSdry: 14.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-11-25 07:00:04OBSERVATION20245513535.2299223.3099629.2699421.93729208333300.441.341.78FF3.22992120.2299238319.48328389969 7.008598114650.4596078057086116 24122214DRYL
2023-11-25 03:00:04OBSERVATION20245513535.2299223.3099629.2699421.93729208333300.441.341.78FF3.22992120.2299238319.48328389969 7.008598114650.4596078057086116 24122214DRYL
2023-11-24 11:00:02FORECAST20245513531.51421.79426.6542300.441.341.78FF-0.486116.51438320.233794672117.36537727745860.31599485478731624122214DRYL
2023-11-24 07:00:04FORECAST20245513532.01821.43426.72623.11337243333300.441.341.78FF0.018000000000001117.01838320.313741581687.40353080469190.334425798668511624122214DRYL
2023-11-24 03:00:03FORECAST20245513530.220.69625.44823.11347083333300.441.341.78FF-1.8115.238320.313810960477.40356392714870.270127032516731624122214DRYL
2023-11-23 23:00:01FORECAST20245513532.79221.57827.18522.995670400.441.341.78FF0.792113.79238320.230741108977.36392057448970.363510117441591624122214DRYL
2023-11-23 19:00:01FORECAST20245513532.16221.18226.67222.998425600.441.341.78FF0.162113.16238320.23268428947.36484756431810.339768426014531624122214DRYL
2023-11-23 15:00:02FORECAST20245513532.10820.98426.54622.998917600.441.341.78FF0.108113.10838320.233031284487.36501309930990.337761097156321624122214DRYL
2023-11-23 11:00:01FORECAST20245513533.7122.33428.02222.974120800.441.341.78FF1.71114.7138320.21554219297.35667054837720.39904056140451624122214DRYL
2023-11-23 07:00:05FORECAST20245513532.923.19828.04923.46859053333300.441.341.78FF0.9112.938320.56408193427.52318717860750.36763633974171624122214DRYL
2023-11-23 03:00:05FORECAST20245513533.65623.21628.43623.45314173333300.441.341.78FF1.656114.65638320.553199072567.51797961092220.396923959794031624122214DRYL
2023-11-22 23:00:02FORECAST20245513532.21622.127.15822.998819200.181.341.52FF0.216114.21638320.23296188557.3649799922850.341780306315391624122214DRYL
2023-11-22 19:00:03FORECAST20245513532.39622.51427.45522.99704800.181.341.52FF0.396114.39638320.231712700897.36438406810450.348518797239781624122214DRYL
2023-11-22 15:00:02FORECAST20245513534.2524.00829.12922.948143200.181.341.52FF2.25118.2538320.197219105947.34793163628490.42036010624321624122214DRYL
2023-11-22 11:00:02FORECAST20245513534.12423.79228.95823.33922624029300.181.341.52FF2.124118.12438320.472938453777.47959041446420.415362143168261624122214DRYL
2023-11-22 07:00:05FORECAST20245513533.04422.5527.79723.03438013657500.191.341.53FF1.044116.04438320.258040966677.37694545742120.373161738680611624122214DRYL
2023-11-22 03:00:05FORECAST20245513532.3621.84827.10423.66310822034500.281.341.62FF0.36113.3638320.701072812457.58878419234170.347167188455451624122214DRYL
2023-11-21 23:00:03FORECAST20245513532.8123.59428.20226.00438514828200.41.41.8FF0.81107.8138322.344639561498.3823741576410.364196737988271624122214DRYL
2023-11-21 19:00:03FORECAST20245513532.19822.69427.44625.55436222062400.391.41.79FF0.198106.19838322.029483650738.22925807093130.341109176927491624122214DRYL
2023-11-21 15:00:02FORECAST20245513533.24222.98228.11225.91255708861700.391.41.79FF1.242110.24238322.28036063178.35110824340910.380801723925531624122214DRYL
2023-11-21 11:00:03FORECAST20245513532.25222.13627.19425.59457857563100.351.41.75FF0.252105.25238322.057662258318.24293014255430.343124063621471624122214DRYL
2023-11-21 07:00:06FORECAST20245513535.52824.22429.87624.67558342955700.331.341.67FF3.528112.52838321.413025846057.93105393461050.471643260256281624122214DRYL
2023-11-21 03:00:05FORECAST20245513534.21423.79229.00325.39651865058700.371.331.7FF2.214112.21438321.918858732798.1756182997830.418930768969751624122214DRYL
2023-11-20 23:00:02FORECAST20245513532.43221.43426.93325.18175743801200.31.331.63FF0.43296.43238321.768271751268.10269057048860.349872330858151624122214DRYL
2023-11-20 19:00:03FORECAST20245513533.1723.75628.46324.24247648550200.381.331.71FF1.17103.1738321.108697473937.78447004780180.378017991048641624122214DRYL
2023-11-20 15:00:03FORECAST20245513534.03423.93628.98525.28945763506800.551.311.86FF2.034104.03438321.843799601688.13925513513580.411800484379981624132221DRYL
2023-11-20 11:00:03FORECAST20245513534.35822.4628.40923.87357113887200.471.31.77FF2.358105.35838320.849217053647.65981660818150.424654349348721624122214DRYL
2023-11-20 07:00:05FORECAST20245513534.26823.4528.85923.64743161869700.471.291.76FF2.268105.26838320.690034928317.58349567176490.421075170075961624122214DRYL
2023-11-20 03:00:04FORECAST20245513535.9623.61229.78625.16367725481500.531.341.87FF3.96104.9638321.755590479018.09655383374630.489129082445061624132221DRYL
2023-11-19 23:00:03FORECAST20245513534.77226.27630.52418.09683783192900.431.582.01FF2.772103.77238316.754107801525.73224772148140.441194230637121624122214DRYL
2023-11-19 19:00:04FORECAST20245513535.61826.76231.1918.12376139938400.331.611.94FF3.618103.61838316.773333548125.74112431491350.475282757478431624122214DRYL
2023-11-19 15:00:02FORECAST20245513533.7123.61228.66117.56279402838800.311.581.89FF1.7198.7138316.372482705385.55638475000430.39904056140451624122214DRYL
2023-11-19 11:00:04FORECAST20245513531.58623.52227.55421.9793469082100.151.611.76FF-0.41488.58638319.513022577587.02268756492320.318601397651621624122214DRYL
2023-11-19 07:00:06FORECAST20245513532.55824.0828.31920.47826672081600.151.431.58FF0.55895.55838318.44957835816.52129540274840.354624634139941624122214DRYL
2023-11-19 03:00:06FORECAST20245513534.73625.41230.07419.80715486287600.181.371.55FF2.736102.73638317.972814192856.29813677290220.439751470230621624122214DRYL
2023-11-18 23:00:04FORECAST20245513532.37821.59626.98720.65569081748001.571.57FF0.37888.37838318.57548633146.58039674768950.34784275128609162411227DRYL
2023-11-18 19:00:03FORECAST20245513531.47822.04626.76220.222700014238001.451.45FF-0.52284.47838318.268117178936.43624065780590.314694992201162411227DRYL
2023-11-18 15:00:03FORECAST20245513530.25422.83826.54620.69859935657400.041.511.55FF-1.74680.25438318.605927605826.59469644814240.27194460456691162411227DRYL
2023-11-18 11:00:03FORECAST20245513532.68426.11429.39921.376485073084001.611.61FF0.68485.68438319.086410666556.82094589463760.35939966196485162411227DRYL
2023-11-18 07:00:05FORECAST20245513536.2326.52831.37920.62677866586001.591.59FF4.23100.2338318.554972861556.57076291812430.5000704846884163411228DRYL
2023-11-18 03:00:04FORECAST20245513533.09823.86428.48122.01867710378800.021.611.63FF1.09889.09838319.540831684757.03586639434220.37524057491257162411227DRYL
2023-11-17 23:00:03FORECAST20245513532.88225.10628.99425.054448052477001.91.9FF0.88267.88238321.678965744738.05948893682590.36694755960693162411227DRYL
2023-11-17 19:00:03FORECAST20245513530.90221.05625.97925.233851091674001.861.86FF-1.09861.90238321.804806499088.12037456778280.2942174893483162411227DRYL
2023-11-17 15:00:03FORECAST20245513534.68225.23229.95723.86614558068800.131.551.68FF2.68276.68238320.843991572327.6573094115540.437588834807741624122214DRYL
2023-11-17 11:00:04FORECAST20245513535.3325.91630.62323.01854147717100.091.731.82FF3.3383.3338320.246871151877.37161588654370.46364512181426162411227DRYL
2023-11-17 07:00:07FORECAST20245513533.29625.30429.324.23473307999800.071.962.03FF1.29681.29638321.103253419877.78185163774930.3828935879162162411227DRYL
2023-11-17 03:00:09FORECAST20245513531.15423.4527.30225.39977075177300.041.891.93FF-0.84665.15438321.921138420618.17672311603320.30310086833652162411227DRYL
2023-11-16 23:00:04FORECAST20245513534.7927.2331.0123.746981360033001.551.55FF2.7974.7938320.760120365177.61708459935370.44191590480828162411227DRYL
2023-11-16 19:00:04FORECAST20245513535.34826.09630.72223.17774635689001.771.77FF3.34887.34838320.35912593537.42520256404330.46437166742376162411227DRYL
2023-11-16 15:00:03FORECAST20245513536.42827.51831.97324.340433978166001.971.97FF4.42882.42838321.177557913177.81760114365420.50809461100121163411228DRYL
2023-11-16 11:00:04FORECAST20245513534.53826.94230.7423.48906750643800.012.032.04FF2.53884.53838320.578506219427.53009017370110.43183108538219162411227DRYL
2023-11-16 03:00:08FORECAST20245513531.22624.4427.83325.6129786607990.173228440.343228441.872.21322844FF-0.77471.22638322.070553784228.24918622134710.305660820874531624122214DRYL
2023-11-15 23:00:04FORECAST20245513533.94430.00231.97325.0377273484990.248031630.388031631.72.08803163FF1.94469.94438321.667234225848.05381650749250.408246075995731624122214DRYL
2023-11-15 19:00:03FORECAST20245513531.31627.5929.45326.8638366401090.244094620.374094621.752.12409462FF-0.68462.31638322.945522679558.67555576491790.308874144560191624122214DRYL
2023-11-15 15:00:05FORECAST20245513531.69425.50228.59825.7340924824990.129921330.199921331.882.07992133FF-0.30669.69438322.155393900178.29037670036260.322528053566411624122214DRYL
2023-11-15 11:00:05FORECAST20245513530.7421.43426.08726.23240690778100.112.12.21FF-1.2653.7438322.504188203768.46006109442440.288570962624341624122214DRYL
2023-11-15 07:00:05FORECAST20245513530.7421.43426.08725.81126081450400.112.152.26FF-1.2658.7438322.209436631938.31663180580140.288570962624341624122214DRYL
2023-11-15 03:00:08FORECAST20245513531.0121.43426.22227.40782432855700.052.372.42FF-0.9957.0138323.325172832778.8616395380010.29800994112593162411227DRYL
2023-11-14 23:00:04FORECAST20245513531.29821.2926.29427.7794504906760.007874020.087874021.651.73787402FF-0.70255.29838323.584230088188.98899209929790.30823029871997162411227DRYL
2023-11-14 19:00:05FORECAST20245513526.7821.2924.03528.1660064208350.007874020.077874021.651.72787402FF-5.2249.7838323.853435411149.12165794119950.16853112371615161411226DRYL
2023-11-14 15:00:06FORECAST20245513533.15231.69432.42324.6758015029600.051.571.62FF1.15285.15238321.413178993927.93112780528920.37732303957776162411227DRYL
2023-11-14 11:00:06FORECAST20245513531.51429.24630.3826.54602083704900.312.062.37FF-0.48693.51438322.723475477418.5670241046280.31599485478731624122214DRYL
2023-11-14 07:00:07FORECAST20245513532.48630.25431.3726.94824944326600.312.022.33FF0.48687.48638323.004468942598.70440500035430.351906206724641624122214DRYL
2023-11-14 03:00:08FORECAST20245513534.93434.5234.72728.31005228234500.441.942.38FF2.93487.93438323.953684265349.171145738610.447696041452331624122214DRYL