MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, November 2, 2023

[ Wednesday, November 1, 2023 | Index | Today | Friday, November 3, 2023 ]

DAY 33 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/03/2023 04:00:08 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 45.56°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 36.04°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 40.80°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.678
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 14
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 251

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 2.56 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 3.35 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.25 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.60 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 61
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 328.17 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 113

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 5
D2: 2
D3: 5
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 125.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-11-03 04:00:08OBSERVATION20243311345.5599436.0399240.7999302.56000000000013.35000000000012.255.6000000000001TT13.55994250.5599461328.16508187411 00.677728353572216 352552125WETH
2023-11-03 00:00:01FORECAST20243311342.72833.49438.11101.984253042.774253042.255.02425304TF10.728247.72860327.1381392299600.5657907777949416352552125WETM
2023-11-02 12:00:02FORECAST20243311342.92634.55638.74101.901575832.691575832.254.94157583TF10.926247.92660327.1381392299600.5739113325199116352552125WETM
2023-11-02 08:00:01FORECAST20243311342.78235.18638.98402.114174372.904174372.255.15417437TF10.782247.78260327.1381392299600.5680083792086516352552125WETM
2023-11-02 04:00:04FORECAST20243311342.11636.37439.24502.098426332.888426332.255.13842633TF10.116247.11660327.1381392299600.5405297748305916352552125WETM
2023-11-02 00:00:02FORECAST20243311343.93436.30240.11802.299213843.169213842.255.41921384TT11.934246.93461328.1650818741100.6146988610301116352552125WETH
2023-11-01 20:00:02FORECAST20243311344.16836.73440.45102.389765073.309765072.255.55976507TT12.168248.16861328.1650818741100.624006122577116352552125WETH
2023-11-01 16:00:02FORECAST20243311342.67434.7938.73202.185040553.105040552.255.35504055TT10.674246.67461328.1650818741100.5635711042567416352552125WETH
2023-11-01 12:00:02FORECAST20243311342.13435.83438.98401.972442012.892442012.255.14244201TF10.134246.13461328.1650818741100.5412755983877316352552125WETM
2023-11-01 08:00:02FORECAST20243311343.17836.42839.80301.783465532.613465532.254.86346553TF11.178247.17861328.1650818741100.5842009973137616352552125WETM
2023-11-01 04:00:05FORECAST20243311343.23236.60839.9201.9685052.8885052.255.138505TF11.232246.23261328.1650818741100.5863986885500616352552125WETM
2023-11-01 00:00:03FORECAST20243311343.7937.11240.45102.08661533.02661532.255.2766153TT11.79241.7961328.1650818741100.6089379272240716352552125WETH
2023-10-31 20:00:02FORECAST20243311342.7136.21239.46102.066930253.026930252.255.27693025TT10.71238.7161328.1650818741100.5650511134645616352552125WETH
2023-10-31 16:00:02FORECAST20243311343.86236.35640.10902.118111383.008111382.255.25811138TT11.862241.86261328.1650818741100.6118214688327216352552125WETH
2023-10-31 12:00:02FORECAST20243311343.1637.6740.41502.220473643.080473642.255.33047364TT11.16240.1661328.1650818741100.583467844474616352552125WETH
2023-10-31 08:00:03FORECAST20243311343.66437.97640.8202.48031633.30031632.255.5503163TT11.664241.66461328.1650818741100.603877384196316352552125WETH
2023-10-31 04:00:05FORECAST20243311342.04435.83438.93902.649607733.599607732.255.84960773TT10.044236.04461328.1650818741100.5375450801261216352552125WETH
2023-10-31 00:00:03FORECAST20243311342.06236.75239.40702.803151123.603151122.255.85315112TT10.062232.06261328.1650818741100.5382914586551916352552125WETH
2023-10-30 20:00:01FORECAST20243311342.54837.27439.91102.594489593.264489592.255.51448959TT10.548236.54861328.1650818741100.5583841938255216352552125WETH
2023-10-30 16:00:02FORECAST20243311343.26838.26440.76602.527560423.227560422.255.47756042TT11.268237.26861328.1650818741100.5878623186537116352552125WETH
2023-10-30 12:00:03FORECAST20243311343.5238.60641.06302.783466073.263466072.255.51346607TT11.52238.5261328.1650818741100.5980724505637416352552125WETH
2023-10-30 08:00:03FORECAST20243311341.1837.32839.25402.586615572.946615572.255.19661557TF9.18237.1861328.1650818741100.5016118153099916352552125WETM
2023-10-30 04:00:04FORECAST20243311341.66637.27439.4702.413387132.983387132.255.23338713TF9.666235.66661328.1650818741100.521844623250416352552125WETM
2023-10-30 00:00:03FORECAST20243311341.14435.72638.43501.748032442.618032442.254.86803244TF9.144228.14461328.1650818741100.5001122840671516352552125WETM
2023-10-29 20:00:02FORECAST20243311340.83835.34838.0930.436339605648351.767717492.827717492.255.07771749TF8.838228.83861328.463864183550.143321792967580.487368342600611625254290WETM
2023-10-29 16:00:04FORECAST20243311340.89236.12238.5070.0931682254860282.377954043.347954042.255.59795404TT8.892228.89261328.228906360.0305805047587810.489616707247791625254290WETH
2023-10-29 12:00:04FORECAST20243311340.33436.2338.28202.547245473.697245472.255.94724547TT8.334227.33461328.1650818741100.466412509939316252552112.5WETH
2023-10-29 08:00:04FORECAST20243311340.6435.76238.20102.535434443.595434442.255.84543444TT8.64229.6461328.1650818741100.4791283158074716252552112.5WETH
2023-10-29 04:00:05FORECAST20243311340.76636.62638.69601.956693972.916693972.255.16669397TF8.766228.76661328.1650818741100.4843711598208316252552112.5WETM
2023-10-29 00:00:04FORECAST20243311342.94437.88640.41502.20472562.79472562.255.0447256TF10.944237.94461328.1650818741100.5746480670140716352552125WETMH
2023-10-28 20:00:03FORECAST20243311342.11636.69839.40702.106300352.596300352.254.84630035TF10.116235.11661328.1650818741100.5405297748305916352552125WETM
2023-10-28 16:00:03FORECAST20243311343.17838.42640.80202.665355773.415355772.255.66535577TT11.178238.17861328.1650818741100.5842009973137616352552125WETH
2023-10-28 12:00:04FORECAST20243311341.8135.67238.7410.07734322.511812383.191812382.255.44181238TT9.81233.8161328.218066560240.0253854355655820.5278310802160316352542100WETH
2023-10-28 08:00:03FORECAST20243311342.0835.63638.8580.46011922.582678563.272678562.255.52267856TT10.08229.0861328.480137680390.151140018165390.5390377023558416352542100WETH
2023-10-28 04:00:04FORECAST20243311341.48635.88838.6870.830601566666661.956693972.646693972.254.89669397TF9.486227.48661328.73354931120.273046601073780.5143547735744816352542100WETM
2023-10-28 00:00:03FORECAST20243311339.63235.13237.3820.07108481.000000541.440000542.223.66000054TF7.632223.63261328.213779571540.0233310108780870.437391022758661625244272DRYH
2023-10-27 20:00:03FORECAST20243311341.14435.18638.16501.007874561.377874562.223.59787456TF9.144227.14461328.1650818741100.5001122840671516352452100DRYVH
2023-10-27 16:00:04FORECAST20243311342.7137.20239.95601.283465261.413465262.223.63346526TF10.71236.7161328.1650818741100.5650511134645616352452100DRYVH
2023-10-27 12:00:03FORECAST20243311344.637.77841.18900.925197350.965197352.223.18519735FF12.6234.661328.1650818741100.6409971238371635235275DRYVH
2023-10-27 08:00:03FORECAST20243311343.73637.4940.61300.850394160.910394162.223.13039416FF11.736238.73661328.1650818741100.60677132567781635235275DRYVH
2023-10-27 04:00:06FORECAST20243311344.04236.75240.39700.854331170.854331172.223.07433117FF12.042233.04261328.1650818741100.61900309351821635235275DRYVH
2023-10-27 00:00:03FORECAST20243311342.65635.58239.11900.578740470.578740472.022.59874047FF10.656236.65661328.1650818741100.562830764468291635235275DRYVH
2023-10-26 20:00:03FORECAST20243311342.78237.29240.03700.622047580.622047582.022.64204758FF10.782241.78261328.1650818741100.568008379208651635235275DRYVH
2023-10-26 16:00:05FORECAST20243311340.65834.5237.58900.582677480.582677482.022.60267748FF8.658232.65861328.1650818741100.479877093674091625235267.5DRYH
2023-10-26 12:00:03FORECAST20243311340.96434.75437.85900.751968910.851968912.022.87196891FF8.964237.96461328.1650818741100.492615027756561625235267.5DRYH
2023-10-26 08:00:04FORECAST20243311340.71233.4437.07600.763779940.853779942.022.87377994FF8.712229.71261328.1650818741100.482123842810171625235267.5DRYH
2023-10-26 04:00:06FORECAST20243311340.33430.39835.3660.422708793099791.011811571.151811572.023.17181157TF8.334222.33461328.454535533070.138840620303330.46641250993931625244272DRYH
2023-10-26 00:00:05FORECAST20243311339.25433.83636.54500.555118410.595118412.072.66511841FF7.254215.25461328.1650818741100.421892456823481625235267.5DRYH
2023-10-25 20:00:04FORECAST20243311341.25235.02438.13800.543307380.543307382.092.63330738FF9.252223.25261328.1650818741100.504610788294231635235275DRYVH
2023-10-25 16:00:03FORECAST20243311341.37836.64439.0110.63766040218590.70866180.88866182.072.9586618FF9.378218.37861328.601606430560.209536232515440.509858262129091635234260DRYH
2023-10-25 12:00:04FORECAST20243311337.92234.53836.2301.161417951.551417952.073.62141795TF5.922212.92261328.1650818741100.3683864093956916252552112.5DRYVH
2023-10-25 08:00:04FORECAST20243311338.94835.07837.01301.342520411.672520412.123.79252041TF6.948212.94861328.1650818741100.4094328459665416252552112.5DRYVH
2023-10-25 04:00:08FORECAST20243311338.15633.83635.99601.41732361.76732362.193.9573236TF6.156210.15661328.1650818741100.3776351340546716252552112.5DRYVH
2023-10-25 00:00:06FORECAST20243311340.08236.08638.0843.28135839028730.854331171.214331172.263.47433117TF8.082225.08261330.403885311441.08417356125020.455965777885991625244272DRYH
2023-10-24 20:00:03FORECAST20243311339.1134.82636.9680.870818664203190.909449311.209449312.123.32944931TF7.11223.1161328.761043644130.286291252868220.416018563743861625244272DRYH
2023-10-24 16:00:04FORECAST20243311342.22435.70838.96600.893701270.953701272.193.14370127FF10.224221.22461328.1650818741100.54500248516941635235275DRYVH
2023-10-24 12:00:04FORECAST20243311341.86434.95238.4081.20752769196810.385826980.465826982.282.74582698FF9.864218.86461328.991123894550.397265892514360.53007445461421635224240DRYM
2023-10-24 08:00:04FORECAST20243311342.54834.80838.6781.96025670384490.350393890.410393892.332.74039389FF10.548214.54861329.504768113750.645913930643830.558384193825521635224240DRYM
2023-10-24 04:00:06FORECAST20243311345.4134.95240.1812.59756078426390.448819140.608819142.272.87881914FF13.41216.4161329.938882073630.857036301278340.672093006976881635234260DRYH
2023-10-24 00:00:04FORECAST20243311335.67231.78433.7284.14344978525310.271653690.311653692.22.51165369FF3.672197.67261330.988983969431.37143623454930.28397815622771625124232DRYL
2023-10-23 20:00:04FORECAST20243311336.08631.94634.0164.28088732899260.279527710.319527712.242.55952771FF4.086196.08661331.082144037681.41732535526660.298807127206031625124232DRYL
2023-10-23 16:00:04FORECAST20243311339.99233.85436.9232.24021356064860.03937010.04937012.192.2393701FF7.992205.99261329.695553550030.738588449948330.452241788195581625214218DRYL
2023-10-23 12:00:03FORECAST20243311333.27829.67831.4781.60795061068540.169291430.359291432.042.39929143FF1.278198.27861329.264485140330.529441029958410.205801618637011615124228DRYL
2023-10-23 08:00:05FORECAST20243311333.27829.67831.4784.16736398470230.169291430.349291432.052.39929143FF1.278194.27861331.005196203761.37941913340890.205801618637011615124228DRYL
2023-10-23 04:00:07FORECAST20243311338.91237.65238.2821.48496505415190.059055150.279055152.072.34905515FF6.912209.91261329.180554779510.488821620353920.407972747290841625224236DRYL