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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, November 15, 2023

[ Tuesday, November 14, 2023 | Index | Today | Thursday, November 16, 2023 ]

DAY 46 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/16/2023 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 35.75°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 27.09°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 31.42°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.426
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 4
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 142

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.01 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.05 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.42 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.47 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 22 in
SWE DAY: 47
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 328.85 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 7.22 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 126

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 4
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 2
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-11-16 07:00:04OBSERVATION20244612635.7499427.0899631.4199521.9487750.00999999999999090.0499999999999916.426.47TF3.74994141.7499447328.85199968578 7.21789854940330.426436018492116 2411227WETL
2023-11-16 03:00:05OBSERVATION20244612635.7499427.0899631.4199521.9487750.00999999999999090.0499999999999916.426.47TF3.74994141.7499447328.85199968578 7.21789854940330.426436018492116 2411227WETL
2023-11-15 11:00:02FORECAST20244612633.33223.73828.53523.3220519831460.181102460.221102466.426.64110246TT1.332139.33247329.788837495437.69135241152980.32560680239231624122214WETL
2023-11-15 07:00:03FORECAST20244612633.69224.09828.89523.3587247651450.188976480.228976486.426.64897648TT1.692139.69247329.813810583137.70403002515490.340030612373221624122214WETL
2023-11-15 03:00:05FORECAST20244612633.04423.77428.40923.874394145240.255905650.295905656.426.71590565TT1.044139.04447330.164720073637.88248265989080.314251461509471624122214WETL
2023-11-14 23:00:02FORECAST20244612632.75623.37828.06725.4686704557280.153543390.173543396.426.59354339TF0.756130.75647331.246711649538.43641333854520.303069114265691624122214WETL
2023-11-14 19:00:01FORECAST20244612633.5322.2827.90525.4922020379550.173228440.193228446.426.61322844TF1.53131.5347331.262649098638.44461437845040.333509331140291624122214WETL
2023-11-14 15:00:02FORECAST20244612634.6125.26829.93925.4053803316830.165354420.185354426.426.60535442TF2.61132.6147331.203841843788.41435956935580.377842122006051624122214WETL
2023-11-14 11:00:03FORECAST20244612635.79824.42230.1125.0737893974260.110236280.130236286.426.55023628TF3.798133.79847330.979124792378.29890086998830.428515147945831624122214WETL
2023-11-14 07:00:05FORECAST20244612635.99625.6130.80324.6679598488020.102362260.122362266.426.54236226TF3.996134.99647330.703839012598.15778902260710.437101170341771624122214WETL
2023-11-14 03:00:05FORECAST20244612634.6124.45829.53424.6267322479250.047244120.067244126.426.48724412TF2.61131.6147330.675857271558.14346579787940.37784212200605162411227WETL
2023-11-13 23:00:01FORECAST20244612633.92622.89228.40923.9256888988030.023622060.283622066.426.70362206TT1.926128.92647330.199600675937.90025292028120.349534853340661624122214WETL
2023-11-13 19:00:02FORECAST20244612632.8121.0226.91523.898943200.266.426.68TT0.81126.8147330.181414079197.89098686077430.305152231973851624122214WETL
2023-11-13 15:00:01FORECAST20244612631.96420.24626.10523.92029600.266.426.68TT-0.036000000000001124.96447330.195933700667.89838447211610.273276764021861624122214WETL
2023-11-13 11:00:04FORECAST20244612631.119.56225.33124.7892910492100.266.426.68TT-0.9124.147330.786171171958.19995467223530.242520443398921614122212WETL
2023-11-13 07:00:07FORECAST20244612632.1822.85627.51825.04761085604300.256.426.67TT0.18127.1847330.961375700368.28979174692320.281256659170531624122214WETL
2023-11-13 03:00:06FORECAST20244612632.2721.70426.98724.78437714177900.166.426.58TF0.27127.2747330.782837216678.19824658960560.284614464180191624122214WETL
2023-11-12 23:00:04FORECAST20244612630.66820.87625.77223.1241192787140.094488240.334488246.687.01448824TT-1.332124.66847329.654010968917.62295867035140.227874733274751614122212WETL
2023-11-12 19:00:03FORECAST20244612631.38821.5626.47423.3469454074550.161417410.391417416.687.07141741TT-0.612125.38847329.805789440027.69995776111860.252560079780311624122214WETL
2023-11-12 15:00:02FORECAST20244612630.36223.19826.7823.2567934319280.149606380.369606386.687.04960638TT-1.638126.36247329.744392585097.66879722368810.217808665841671614122212WETL
2023-11-12 11:00:03FORECAST20244612632.07225.59228.83223.558669426080.027559070.267559076.686.94755907TT0.072000000000003129.07247329.949926118127.77318123657620.27725268554971624122214WETL
2023-11-12 07:00:06FORECAST20244612630.36223.73827.0524.4748833137340.188976480.428976486.717.13897648TT-1.638124.36247330.572770031438.09072997321720.217808665841671614122212WETL
2023-11-12 03:00:06FORECAST20244612629.78621.81225.79924.6781463470250.161417410.391417416.867.25141741TT-2.214125.78647330.710752277938.16132834324940.199571848789391614122212WETL
2023-11-11 23:00:03FORECAST20244612628.09421.63224.86318.7299595700120.011811030.161811038.28.36181103TT-3.906123.09447326.643302795346.1180158551720.151543614688531614122212WETL
2023-11-11 19:00:03FORECAST20244612628.56219.09423.82819.9791265702420.137795350.337795358.38.63779535TT-3.438122.56247327.502604924816.54321599587660.163989847221041614122212WETL
2023-11-11 15:00:03FORECAST20244612629.89422.24426.06919.3722033448930.070866180.290866188.248.53086618TT-2.106122.89447327.085442895846.33636571093250.202919597255751614122212WETL
2023-11-11 11:00:04FORECAST20244612630.07420.26425.16924.2447948724340.133858340.333858348.318.64385834TT-1.926124.07447330.416491749068.01088006492530.208572987682441614122212WETL
2023-11-11 07:00:07FORECAST20244612630.18222.78426.48324.1626697028850.03937010.17937018.588.7593701TT-1.818124.18247330.360689422847.98239622134130.212009053096961614122212WETL
2023-11-11 03:00:05FORECAST20244612626.29420.46223.37824.8966294373260.248031630.418031638.328.73803163TT-5.706116.29447330.858987027558.23727359603410.109621530574011614122212WETL
2023-11-10 23:00:03FORECAST20244612627.96822.15425.06122.4099455044770.149606380.349606388.749.08960638TT-4.032115.96847329.166970760617.3766138766190.148302630617441614122212WETL
2023-11-10 19:00:03FORECAST20244612629.98423.64826.81622.1197717592640.173228440.543228448.59.04322844TT-2.016120.98447328.96883040617.2767154444950.205734791808731614132218WETL
2023-11-10 15:00:03FORECAST20244612629.71422.51426.11421.7057879220490.181102460.491102468.478.96110246TT-2.286119.71447328.68589545637.1343863397430.197358558083931614132218WETL
2023-11-10 11:00:03FORECAST20244612635.13221.27228.20221.93316111919100.278.518.78TT3.132126.13247328.841329230337.21252985665790.399904799290551624122214WETL
2023-11-10 07:00:05FORECAST20244612634.57422.76628.6721.64326337765600.328.468.78TT2.574125.57447328.64313753857.11290998300480.376334237397091624122214WETL
2023-11-10 03:00:07FORECAST20244612635.97826.27631.12724.0600364844150.074803190.834803198.539.36480319TT3.978130.97847330.290935943177.94681196926440.436319334472971624132221WETL
2023-11-09 23:00:03FORECAST20244612633.02627.69830.36226.8950905183920.114173290.944173298.639.57417329TT1.026124.02647332.211076979948.9348469865880.313547406594231624132221WETL
2023-11-09 19:00:03FORECAST20244612632.01826.45629.23726.9590675909860.133858341.013858348.599.60385834TT0.018000000000001125.01847332.25424839098.95726473976250.275261195409891624142228WETL
2023-11-09 15:00:04FORECAST20244612635.0628.09431.57724.0525222559990.11811030.62811038.258.8781103TT3.06125.0647330.285828270327.94420723531280.396840844545291624132221WETL
2023-11-09 11:00:04FORECAST20244612633.8929.9331.9128.2350160300460.677165721.347165728.249.58716572TT1.89129.8947333.113788509449.40547315839340.348066329655531624142228WETL
2023-11-09 07:00:05FORECAST20244612632.9927.84230.41629.3698607602780.641732631.391732638.329.71173263TT0.99122.9947333.875937274029.80588978894510.31214133296391624142228WETL
2023-11-09 03:00:06FORECAST20244612633.31427.87830.59630.1987730192930.830709111.670709118.169.83070911TT1.314122.31447334.4312385598710.0994130638310.324892191876041624151217.5WETL
2023-11-08 23:00:04FORECAST20244612637.54430.90234.22327.615676292310.299212761.089212768.289.36921276TT5.544133.54447332.69691944049.18765043071480.504934757114641634142232WETL
2023-11-08 19:00:04FORECAST20244612633.83627.75230.79427.7250935759570.279527711.019527718.099.10952771TT1.836121.83647332.770614413029.22609642392980.345867813397151624142228WETL
2023-11-08 15:00:04FORECAST20244612634.5227.46430.99227.738093695950.287401731.137401737.919.04740173TT2.52122.5247332.77936892169.23066531522650.374075950344191624142228WETL
2023-11-08 11:00:06FORECAST20244612635.92424.7130.31723.1674264030050.106299270.626299278.038.65629927TT3.924136.92447329.683516430547.63791860318850.433975331053981624132221WETL
2023-11-08 07:00:08FORECAST20244612636.98625.17831.08223.7037752010010.106299270.566299277.878.43629927TT4.986131.98647330.048665922717.82339938242230.480396335167241624132221WETL
2023-11-08 03:00:09FORECAST20244612635.72625.17830.45226.4153945741050.086614220.406614228.598.99661422TT3.726121.72647331.887156940458.76693020465990.425401105719381624122214WETL
2023-11-07 23:00:04FORECAST20244612632.39629.4830.93812.8238519974980.019685050.419685059.419.82968505TT0.396111.39647322.543366124284.13624838995240.289347262608781624123221WETL
2023-11-07 19:00:04FORECAST20244612633.38628.4930.93813.4477976544110.027559070.467559079.59.96755907TT1.386113.38647322.979411748224.34336177573080.327754471277251624123221WETL
2023-11-07 15:00:04FORECAST20244612632.95427.44630.213.2738922241810.035433090.795433099.169.95543309TT0.954121.95447322.857947058254.28558159297150.310737988293681624133231.5WETL
2023-11-07 11:00:05FORECAST20244612632.77429.35431.06410.629636533340.007874020.347874028.628.96787402TT0.774124.77447321.004434506493.41216046439430.303762780622871624123221WETL
2023-11-07 07:00:07FORECAST20244612631.127.8629.4810.683267286930.007874020.337874028.679.00787402TT-0.9121.147321.042151236823.4297791120340.242520443398921614123218WETL
2023-11-07 03:00:07FORECAST20244612629.325.1627.2317.6736056995750.437008111.177008119.0410.21700811TT-2.7127.347325.914506123835.76008447300430.184921974593051614142224WETL
2023-11-06 23:00:05FORECAST20244612631.0127.17629.09316.9385686637280.503937280.9539372810.1411.09393728TT-0.99124.0147325.40623649885.51191588054030.239427904182751614132218WETL
2023-11-06 19:00:06FORECAST20244612630.59625.6128.10318.3976376365140.503937281.0139372810.2411.25393728TT-1.404116.59647326.414238975596.00525088807130.225483014889221614142224WETL
2023-11-06 15:00:04FORECAST20244612640.24427.82434.03410.32836430313100.219.8110.02TT8.244127.24447320.79246421453.31326143610650.621753935349931634123224WETH
2023-11-06 11:00:04FORECAST20244612639.66828.43634.05215.40144564139300.499.6610.15TT7.668129.66847324.340261563144.995308907780.597382014631921634123224WETH
2023-11-06 07:00:10FORECAST20244612639.68629.76834.72713.60874174168200.59.6510.15TT7.686144.68647323.091775761164.39687253519510.598149940565111634133236WETH
2023-11-06 03:00:09FORECAST20244612638.22826.04232.13518.9166758825290.161417410.8314174110.1110.94141741TT6.228127.22847326.771918341986.18143846678740.534979133185451634132224WETL
2023-11-05 23:00:04FORECAST20244612634.35825.62829.99325.1026774178910.007874020.6678740211.2811.94787402TT2.358123.35847330.998709545738.30895383146470.367327244700681624132221WETL
2023-11-05 19:00:05FORECAST20244612633.76425.95229.85825.168621716480.011811030.6918110311.1211.81181103TT1.764121.76447331.043411372598.33190639256980.342944529866811624132221WETL
2023-11-05 15:00:04FORECAST20244612632.34231.56831.95524.2222319256060.031496080.6914960810.7111.40149608TT0.342115.34247330.401161860718.00305357107990.287314399777241624132221WETL
2023-11-05 11:00:05FORECAST20244612630.54227.48229.01222.9432895808760.448819140.918819149.7410.65881914TT-1.458119.54247329.530775293047.56052000335890.223698573732771614132218WETL
2023-11-05 07:00:08FORECAST20244612630.45227.48228.96724.2507166267240.448819140.888819149.6710.55881914TT-1.548104.45247330.42051500678.01293427708360.220742389844791614132218WETL
2023-11-05 03:00:06FORECAST20244612625.4325.23225.33120.10770162425501.399.0610.45TT-6.57112.4347327.590897060356.58710001291160.0927555987535541614142224WETL