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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, November 14, 2023

[ Monday, November 13, 2023 | Index | Today | Wednesday, November 15, 2023 ]

DAY 45 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/15/2023 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 45.37°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 23.88°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 34.63°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.777
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 13
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 142

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.02 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.06 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.40 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.46 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 23 in
SWE DAY: 48
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 330.69 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 7.65 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 125

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 4
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 2
D5: 2
HSdry: 9.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-11-15 07:00:03OBSERVATION20244512545.3700423.8800234.6250323.1479195833330.0199999999999820.0599999999999826.46.46TF13.37004142.3700448330.68756566317 7.65472917717920.7769217922287516 4411229WETL
2023-11-15 03:00:04OBSERVATION20244512545.3700423.8800234.6250323.1479195833330.0199999999999820.0599999999999826.46.46TF13.37004142.3700448330.68756566317 7.65472917717920.7769217922287516 4411229WETL
2023-11-14 11:00:02FORECAST20244512537.25623.34230.29924.852006400.046.46.44TF5.256134.25648331.841663268528.24693113933590.48181365947504162411227WETL
2023-11-14 07:00:05FORECAST20244512537.50822.44229.97524.464753300.046.46.44TF5.508134.50848331.579833452918.11201882468040.49181161681875162411227WETL
2023-11-14 03:00:04FORECAST20244512535.8723.23429.55224.525072500.046.46.44TF3.87132.8748331.620633444588.13302007772420.42719595337297162411227WETL
2023-11-13 23:00:01FORECAST20244512537.43625.66431.5523.873260800.286.46.68TT5.436131.43648331.179415728227.90633256327140.488954257512481624122214WETL
2023-11-13 19:00:02FORECAST20244512536.06822.65829.36323.9065200.286.46.68TT4.068130.06848331.201946896187.91788596751240.434938237185931624122214WETL
2023-11-13 15:00:01FORECAST20244512535.43821.68628.56223.92029600.286.46.68TT3.438129.43848331.211278775167.92267182684020.410404612544951624122214WETL
2023-11-13 11:00:03FORECAST20244512534.7921.27228.03124.7892910492100.286.46.68TT2.79128.7948331.799277600188.22506886234850.385531593714291624122214WETL
2023-11-13 07:00:07FORECAST20244512536.26623.03629.65125.04859485604300.276.46.67TT4.266131.26648331.974482259198.3154943086550.442705546386271624122214WETL
2023-11-13 03:00:06FORECAST20244512535.16820.80427.98624.78604994177900.186.46.58TF3.168131.16848331.797086940158.22393916743530.399990766573781624122214WETL
2023-11-12 23:00:03FORECAST20244512534.7922.31628.55322.75909138637100.526.46.92TT2.79129.7948330.423529988917.52013931522490.385531593714291624132221WETL
2023-11-12 19:00:02FORECAST20244512535.38421.77628.5822.71760085733700.516.46.91TT3.384130.38448330.395340243317.50578946477170.408316530835541624132221WETL
2023-11-12 15:00:02FORECAST20244512535.56423.23429.39922.6630491844700.56.46.9TT3.564131.56448330.358271895467.48692576446350.41528659130651624132221WETL
2023-11-12 11:00:03FORECAST20244512535.72624.18829.95723.46049524334800.526.46.92TT3.726132.72648330.899632689247.76306925873150.421582584694491624132221WETL
2023-11-12 07:00:05FORECAST20244512534.722.94628.82323.69599126509100.556.46.95TT2.7129.748331.059293844767.84477813517270.382111426817851624132221WETL
2023-11-12 03:00:06FORECAST20244512536.12226.29431.20824.00187744851600.696.47.09TT4.122132.12248331.266535454447.9510187867720.43705423568271624132221WETL
2023-11-11 23:00:03FORECAST20244512534.75423.34229.04818.67551256804800.547.818.35TT2.754130.75448327.634748397096.11874686141910.384162442322861624132221WETL
2023-11-11 19:00:03FORECAST20244512534.82622.98228.90419.2798629484970.043307110.693307117.818.50330711TT2.826129.82648328.049300801746.32474555980780.38690217256761624132221WETL
2023-11-11 15:00:02FORECAST20244512534.41223.28828.8519.0210071915560.027559070.647559077.818.45755907TT2.412129.41248327.871817347236.23645219567030.37122974463891624132221WETL
2023-11-11 11:00:04FORECAST20244512534.44823.8129.12923.59314885522100.77.818.51TT2.448130.44848330.98958068517.80908644663080.372584542542391624132221WETL
2023-11-11 07:00:06FORECAST20244512535.36623.68429.52523.9750587706150.007874020.667874028.058.71787402TT3.366130.36648331.248371913017.9416991842850.407621078454381624132221WETL
2023-11-11 03:00:05FORECAST20244512532.3621.05626.70823.6523383487430.074803190.564803197.938.49480319TT0.36126.3648331.029705331877.82962659399410.297088912005561624132221WETL
2023-11-10 23:00:03FORECAST20244512530.72218.5924.65621.6496169069300.818.138.94TT-1.278123.72248329.668700783487.13720107816770.243275936295511614132218WETL
2023-11-10 19:00:03FORECAST20244512531.65820.51626.08721.34054888782200.828.058.87TT-0.342126.65848329.45804775017.03081557449760.273370315503611624132221WETL
2023-11-10 15:00:02FORECAST20244512531.0118.06824.53920.86637260213200.778.018.78TT-0.99126.0148329.134539399316.86784393533720.252341202170291624132221WETL
2023-11-10 11:00:03FORECAST20244512531.2819.61625.44821.97380031919100.837.958.78TT-0.72127.2848329.889478464147.2489255271730.260998673462111624132221WETL
2023-11-10 07:00:05FORECAST20244512532.19820.5726.38421.69088897765600.887.98.78TT0.198127.19848329.696818280997.15141708161930.291532628657581624132221WETL
2023-11-10 03:00:07FORECAST20244512532.97222.24427.60823.8249159335350.409449041.459449047.839.28944904TT0.972130.97248331.14666150687.88954137207040.318502509159111624142228WETL
2023-11-09 23:00:02FORECAST20244512533.51225.35829.43526.3209079423940.519685321.399685328.069.45968532TT1.512126.51248332.832480038578.7604530673340.337916826369831624142228WETL
2023-11-09 19:00:03FORECAST20244512533.47625.95229.71426.2875007187640.539370371.369370378.19.46937037TT1.476129.47648332.809986952678.74874277123020.336608309597151624142228WETL
2023-11-09 15:00:04FORECAST20244512533.45824.74629.10223.5601284909720.255905650.865905657.898.75590565TT1.458126.45848330.967193508957.79762960536730.335954790654741624132221WETL
2023-11-09 11:00:03FORECAST20244512534.71827.03230.87525.1474889189950.503937281.063937287.858.91393728TT2.718131.71848332.041271945788.35000420690570.382794734441741624142228WETL
2023-11-09 07:00:05FORECAST20244512533.58424.81829.20126.078547662740.531496351.171496357.99.07149635TT1.584125.58448332.669255534428.67553103638270.340539727052811624142228WETL
2023-11-09 03:00:05FORECAST20244512532.52225.39428.95825.9941455504410.523622331.213622337.799.00362233TT0.522124.52248332.612388909978.64597484920560.30269307652161624142228WETL
2023-11-08 23:00:04FORECAST20244512533.33226.72630.02926.380012371940.507874291.327874297.749.06787429TT1.332132.33248332.87227037978.78117461089230.331394120925061624142228WETL
2023-11-08 19:00:03FORECAST20244512530.8325.73628.28326.2761454996670.480315221.310315227.528.83031522TT-1.17123.8348332.802341048268.7447627360140.246654672710681614142224WETL
2023-11-08 15:00:04FORECAST20244512531.29825.64628.47226.2728936296880.59055151.35055157.418.7605515TT-0.702124.29848332.800151398898.74362297764720.261581213351571624142228WETL
2023-11-08 11:00:06FORECAST20244512534.9722.51428.74222.6525390094890.122047311.252047317.38.55204731TT2.97136.9748330.351129547777.48329184890950.392398439763751624142228WETL
2023-11-08 07:00:07FORECAST20244512532.86422.6427.75223.3114553095380.133858341.103858347.238.33385834TT0.864130.86448330.798537513727.71139532371160.314676551187451624142228WETL
2023-11-08 03:00:08FORECAST20244512533.85423.46828.66126.2472820895240.055118141.495118147.418.90511814TT1.854121.85448332.782905214778.73464678774330.350443527941921624142228WETL
2023-11-07 23:00:04FORECAST20244512532.30629.22830.76712.721036973820.133858341.513858348.39.81385834TT0.306115.30648323.516089727434.11546013904830.295231446414461624153252.5WETL
2023-11-07 19:00:04FORECAST20244512532.91827.4130.16413.3294871619580.133858341.603858348.349.94385834TT0.918115.91848323.939812531284.31795157238290.316587079132541624153252.5WETL
2023-11-07 15:00:04FORECAST20244512532.68427.44630.06513.0813517682990.303149771.503149778.429.92314977TT0.684124.68448323.767090890724.23531120694050.308344069574131624153252.5WETL
2023-11-07 11:00:05FORECAST20244512533.87225.62829.7510.5878229191220.066929170.476929178.488.95692917TT1.872127.87248322.025342851263.40954730557870.351107499788981624123221WETL
2023-11-07 07:00:07FORECAST20244512532.70226.04229.37210.6261732219170.066929170.476929178.528.99692917TT0.702125.70248322.052214429113.42218261702580.30897480148811624123221WETL
2023-11-07 03:00:07FORECAST20244512530.95623.77427.36514.5831191558370.464567181.244567188.549.78456718TT-1.044133.95648324.81077607374.73675425058280.250628029278961624143242WETL
2023-11-06 23:00:05FORECAST20244512533.09829.22831.16313.2219392640030.307086780.977086789.6110.58708678TT1.098129.09848323.864964149114.28212288571820.322990668632861624133231.5WETL
2023-11-06 19:00:05FORECAST20244512533.0827.7730.42514.5870320043330.370078941.080078949.6710.75007894TT1.08122.0848324.813490194384.73806477690450.322347904041041624143242WETL
2023-11-06 15:00:03FORECAST20244512533.33229.58831.4610.6391115031310.129921330.749921339.2710.01992133TT1.332123.33248322.061279530563.42644586376670.331394120925061624133231.5WETL
2023-11-06 11:00:04FORECAST20244512533.2630.86632.06315.6710616413930.3937010.9137019.2410.153701TT1.26126.2648325.564381984095.10193949831470.328799144140651624132221WETL
2023-11-06 07:00:09FORECAST20244512535.27631.89233.58413.9364137416820.401575020.871575029.2810.15157502TT3.276141.27648324.361822411544.52044055913320.404148222801221624133231.5WETH
2023-11-06 03:00:09FORECAST20244512531.49626.09628.79619.0113980676690.145669371.575669379.210.77566937TT-0.504125.49648327.865226641786.23317633623340.26803284604591624152235WETL
2023-11-05 23:00:04FORECAST20244512532.16226.2429.20125.0477511894690.169291431.7992914310.1411.93929143TT0.162125.16248331.973912403318.31519995927250.290304504558931624152235WETL
2023-11-05 19:00:05FORECAST20244512532.64826.52829.58825.0830879133240.181102461.7811024610.0211.80110246TT0.648123.64848331.997779602268.32752949279190.307084301526081624152235WETL
2023-11-05 15:00:04FORECAST20244512538.10227.21232.65723.9542323247790.559055421.379055429.9911.36905542TT6.102119.10248331.234265889467.93446255904380.515387341091891634142232WETL
2023-11-05 11:00:05FORECAST20244512533.29624.56628.93118.5598576192350.377952961.227952968.9810.20795296TT1.296125.29648327.555342649256.07938052198990.330095611488691624142228WETL
2023-11-05 07:00:08FORECAST20244512533.06223.4528.25619.865029266870.350393891.200393898.9110.11039389TT1.062110.06248328.450088030436.52467061143060.321705669746121624142228WETL
2023-11-05 03:00:06FORECAST20244512538.4824.9831.7320.1077016242550.094488241.874488248.5810.45448824TT6.48123.4848328.616122489526.60771493993890.530367301925341634152240WETL
2023-11-05 00:00:04FORECAST20244512536.03228.25632.14432.5250621507340.055118141.945118148.810.74511814TT4.032121.03248336.9768200905610.9601920168020.433528602055371624151217.5WETL
2023-11-04 20:00:04FORECAST20244512536.06827.62631.84734.3952981788080.051181131.941181139.1311.07118113TT4.068128.06848338.2133700583411.6329497112160.434938237185931624151217.5WETL
2023-11-04 16:00:04FORECAST20244512541.88237.99439.93828.74255210446200.9799.97TT9.882134.88248334.45789995349.61317361615960.66082473675881634132224WETL
2023-11-04 12:00:05FORECAST20244512538.78635.72637.25628.0121714952670.027559071.107559079.3810.48755907TT6.786134.78648333.968717312169.35518898340250.542463519315251634142232WETL
2023-11-04 08:00:05FORECAST20244512532.43230.88431.65830.6342143139680.027559071.067559079.810.86755907TT0.432122.43248335.7206562656110.2845385336670.299573802329471624141214WETL
2023-11-04 04:00:07FORECAST20244512533.72833.60233.66535.98752119145401.669.9211.58TT1.728134.72848339.261485942112.2091799147850.34580860593921624151217.5WETL