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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, November 13, 2023

[ Sunday, November 12, 2023 | Index | Today | Tuesday, November 14, 2023 ]

DAY 44 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/14/2023 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 32.25°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 23.33°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 27.79°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.259
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 0
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 124

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.02 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.07 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.40 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.47 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 25 in
SWE DAY: 49
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 332.69 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 8.19 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 124

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 5
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 2
D5: 2
HSdry: 8.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-11-14 07:00:04OBSERVATION20244412432.2500223.3299427.7899824.61609250.0199999999999820.0699999999999826.46.47TF0.25002124.2500249332.69189569529 8.18957447843560.2592070389545916 2511228WETL
2023-11-14 03:00:04OBSERVATION20244412432.2500223.3299427.7899824.61609250.0199999999999820.0699999999999826.46.47TF0.25002124.2500249332.69189569529 8.18957447843560.2592070389545916 2511228WETL
2023-11-13 11:00:01FORECAST20244412429.35420.71425.03424.844296649210.255905650.305905656.46.70590565TT-2.646121.35449332.845575989588.26931422826240.16428775517871615122214WETL
2023-11-13 07:00:06FORECAST20244412430.21822.42426.32125.1379420560430.251968640.301968646.46.70196864TT-1.782122.21849333.04319559828.37202055310690.189928891439591615122214WETL
2023-11-13 03:00:06FORECAST20244412430.63221.57826.10524.8473531417790.161417410.211417416.46.61141741TF-1.368122.63249332.847633729278.27038269767650.2030404973111615122214WETL
2023-11-12 23:00:02FORECAST20244412430.45221.6526.05122.8104561863710.23622060.54622066.46.9462206TT-1.548122.45249331.472773958477.56104518735460.197274783380161615132221WETL
2023-11-12 19:00:02FORECAST20244412430.43422.06426.24922.7836272573370.232283590.542283596.46.94228359TT-1.566122.43449331.45461752877.55173845849730.196703698894331615132221WETL
2023-11-12 15:00:01FORECAST20244412430.66822.51426.59122.742753184470.220472560.530472566.46.93047256TT-1.332122.66849331.426953694437.53756140655340.204205574320361615132221WETL
2023-11-12 11:00:03FORECAST20244412432.01822.83827.42823.5434464433480.244094620.554094626.46.95409462TT0.018000000000001124.01849331.968345433657.81567896160420.25068979966351625132224WETL
2023-11-12 07:00:05FORECAST20244412431.38823.1827.28423.7520792650910.240157610.580157616.46.98015761TT-0.612122.38849332.109232561957.888284816480.228330221493411615132221WETL
2023-11-12 03:00:05FORECAST20244412431.2824.81828.04924.0979158485160.232283590.722283596.47.12228359TT-0.72123.2849332.342607279998.00876418310970.224612745935491615132221WETL
2023-11-11 23:00:02FORECAST20244412431.44221.54226.49218.7332733680480.153543391.983543396.48.38354339TT-0.558123.44249328.699305493336.1576139456940.230201826581151615152235WETL
2023-11-11 19:00:02FORECAST20244412430.54221.3825.96119.1439198953950.15748042.08748046.48.4874804TT-1.458121.54249328.979946786646.29796574847470.200145187570431615152235WETL
2023-11-11 15:00:02FORECAST20244412431.15424.06227.60818.932844672720.185039472.055039476.48.45503947TT-0.846122.15449328.835731736326.2257958318040.220319333520081615152235WETL
2023-11-11 11:00:04FORECAST20244412431.29822.87427.08623.6372320552210.200787512.140787516.48.54078751TT-0.702123.29849332.031686918767.84831003338530.225229934679551615152235WETL
2023-11-11 07:00:06FORECAST20244412430.95623.79227.37424.0026491059760.125984322.335984326.48.73598432TT-1.044121.95649332.278340583847.97556041454990.213668345175461615152235WETL
2023-11-11 03:00:05FORECAST20244412429.94822.6426.29423.3065699978880.098425252.048425256.48.44842525TT-2.052120.94849331.80829520967.73331325818250.181664485996991615152235WETL
2023-11-10 23:00:02FORECAST20244412431.06423.07227.06821.649616906930.200787512.260787516.718.97078751TT-0.936120.06449330.686045541267.15922620243580.217281580134321615152235WETL
2023-11-10 19:00:03FORECAST20244412432.0921.9227.00521.3405488878220.366141932.186141936.718.89614193TT0.090000000000003122.0949330.476191470427.05254332033580.25331691784571625152240WETL
2023-11-10 15:00:02FORECAST20244412431.98222.38827.18520.8663726021320.31496082.10496086.718.8149608TT-0.018000000000001121.98249330.153910118586.88911450458530.249381664201351625152240WETL
2023-11-10 11:00:03FORECAST20244412430.84821.93826.39321.9738003191910.271653692.101653696.718.81165369TT-1.152122.84849330.905985858737.27126205768470.21009029119981615152235WETL
2023-11-10 07:00:05FORECAST20244412431.40623.48627.44621.6919713776560.322834822.142834826.678.81283482TT-0.594122.40649330.714790967277.17385577982940.228953139444631615152235WETL
2023-11-10 03:00:07FORECAST20244412432.66623.82828.24721.9254796818090.350393892.330393896.588.91039389TT0.666124.66649330.873214492497.254553941610.274842805782881625152240WETL
2023-11-09 23:00:02FORECAST20244412431.04625.41228.22923.9773398670620.307086782.067086786.98.96708678TT-0.954120.04649332.261264422597.96674126172020.216676939879431615152235WETL
2023-11-09 19:00:02FORECAST20244412431.40624.38627.89623.7666497030570.338582862.048582866.918.95858286TT-0.594123.40649332.119069007177.89335757279880.228953139444631615152235WETL
2023-11-09 15:00:04FORECAST20244412431.98224.49428.23822.4298149061480.251968641.671968646.868.53196864TT-0.018000000000001119.98249331.215059866817.42909248694120.249381664201351625152240WETL
2023-11-09 11:00:03FORECAST20244412434.80825.66430.23622.8979575310910.165354421.555354426.888.43535442TT2.808123.80849331.531981739667.59140523807320.361914130874361625152240WETL
2023-11-09 07:00:05FORECAST20244412433.42224.11628.76923.5060840074640.220472561.710472566.868.57047256TT1.422119.42249331.943107165957.80268256274140.30439595319091625152240WETL
2023-11-09 03:00:05FORECAST20244412433.0827.17630.12823.4916114924530.322834821.702834826.818.51283482TT1.08119.0849331.933330360847.79764883823280.290851588821271625152240WETL
2023-11-08 23:00:03FORECAST20244412435.16828.45431.81123.985580026350.27559071.79559076.798.5855907TT3.168126.16849332.266824184367.96961250157520.377447405478481625152240WETL
2023-11-08 19:00:03FORECAST20244412433.8925.80829.84923.7900330517080.259842661.619842666.768.37984266TT1.89119.8949332.134854252767.90149916029730.323370376655381625152240WETL
2023-11-08 15:00:03FORECAST20244412434.77226.38430.57823.1932354791750.259842661.419842666.788.19984266TT2.772119.77249331.731684449927.69393107335060.360372753709361625142232WETL
2023-11-08 11:00:05FORECAST20244412434.48425.46629.97522.1168370122080.397638011.717638016.748.45763801TT2.484129.48449331.002970689457.32073875329530.348125161625991625152240WETL
2023-11-08 07:00:07FORECAST20244412433.67423.59428.63422.6603247031050.330708841.500708846.738.23070884TT1.674124.67449331.371156833527.50897801109120.314551883291671625152240WETL
2023-11-08 03:00:08FORECAST20244412432.46824.60228.53526.0387328360480.255905652.175905656.78.87590565TT0.468115.46849333.648497507428.68778408774470.267342837922281625152240WETL
2023-11-07 23:00:03FORECAST20244412430.90224.3527.62612.0230018468280.271653692.081653697.639.71165369TT-1.098109.90249324.071700084263.89631464861790.211874908022571615153252.5WETL
2023-11-07 19:00:03FORECAST20244412429.98424.87227.42812.6263245938920.307086782.157086787.689.83708678TT-2.016109.98449324.491004102144.09712874559150.182753249191091615153252.5WETL
2023-11-07 15:00:04FORECAST20244412430.72226.20428.46311.4008059676340.456693161.876693167.779.64669316TT-1.278118.72249323.638605855083.68974094898940.205960620442711615153252.5WETL
2023-11-07 11:00:04FORECAST20244412433.90826.67230.2910.2836573861990.267716681.317716687.68.91771668TT1.908120.90849322.859268222743.32017409836170.324109836736421625143248WETL
2023-11-07 07:00:07FORECAST20244412434.05227.51830.78510.2593790360150.255905651.365905657.598.95590565TT2.052120.05249322.842306760363.31216159391580.330050294054451625143248WETL
2023-11-07 03:00:06FORECAST20244412436.21226.29431.25311.8305943293890.27559071.86559077.489.3455907TT4.212130.21249323.937843354613.83237721266560.423541297481861625153260WETL
2023-11-06 23:00:04FORECAST20244412436.75227.89632.32411.4100677741890.141732361.541732368.7710.31173236TT4.752122.75249323.645057775383.69281204399850.447844216581911625153260WETH
2023-11-06 19:00:05FORECAST20244412435.3328.79632.06312.3670287918570.137795351.607795358.810.40779535TT3.33116.3349324.310874526584.01076192278240.384504312165311625153260WETH
2023-11-06 15:00:03FORECAST20244412437.56229.73233.6479.8785968890960.082677211.232677218.699.92267721TT5.562116.56249322.576145937753.18659971175730.484639975958311625143248WETH
2023-11-06 11:00:04FORECAST20244412438.01224.81831.41513.4842021206070.102362261.032362268.769.79236226TT6.012120.01249325.086116129744.38352689649670.505159050022381635143254WETL
2023-11-06 07:00:09FORECAST20244412439.07426.3332.70211.9910032610390.102362260.962362268.829.78236226TT7.074133.07449324.049443399213.88567793253790.553432747372881635133240.5WETH
2023-11-06 03:00:09FORECAST20244412434.71824.11629.41717.9766721330510.515748312.115748318.5410.65574831TT2.718120.71849328.181467022295.89961063280330.358064941680051625152240WETL
2023-11-05 23:00:04FORECAST20244412434.75427.98631.3723.7229938679660.492126252.952126258.8511.80212625TT2.754119.75449332.089596036367.87815945038580.359602913033491625152240WETL
2023-11-05 19:00:05FORECAST20244412434.9728.61631.79323.7476216153750.496063262.906063268.7411.64606326TT2.97117.9749332.106223147487.88673292341760.368877742553061625152240WETL
2023-11-05 15:00:04FORECAST20244412432.32426.88829.60620.1938889740960.102362261.902362268.9410.84236226TT0.324108.32449329.696179954236.65784805317950.261953844521581625152240WETL
2023-11-05 11:00:05FORECAST20244412432.23424.36828.30115.8735384431530.086614221.276614228.589.85661422TT0.234119.23449326.736786245575.18646893726130.258614196251161625142232WETL
2023-11-05 07:00:07FORECAST20244412428.77823.19825.98817.1051054597920.086614221.296614228.499.78661422TT-3.222103.77849327.583708294815.60335387729240.148500500397441615142228WETL
2023-11-05 03:00:06FORECAST20244412430.7426.36628.55319.5513676836341.295276292.015276298.3710.38527629TT-1.26111.7449329.258112859836.43744642734190.206547614141031615152235WETL
2023-11-05 00:00:04FORECAST20244412432.6328.430.51532.1110332511.547244932.017244938.710.71724493TT0.63111.6349337.6929481000710.843669485070.273471506331481625151220WETL
2023-11-04 20:00:04FORECAST20244412432.88227.84230.36233.9737570602351.527559881.997559889.0511.04755988TT0.882118.88249338.9211627037811.5144252442710.283140982178871625151220WETL
2023-11-04 16:00:04FORECAST20244412445.01426.56435.78929.0971857044620.405512031.195512038.89.99551203TT13.014120.01449335.693374386019.7677324542670.792021456383671645142240WETL
2023-11-04 12:00:05FORECAST20244412444.20427.535.85228.0064274955620.409449042.059449048.4310.48944904TT12.204123.20449334.965916896979.38119866505960.764492926720261645152250WETL
2023-11-04 08:00:05FORECAST20244412440.76626.54633.65630.3844248998650.389763992.039763998.8310.86976399TT8.766116.76649336.5492819115210.2258563813440.628456283884631635151222.5WETL
2023-11-04 04:00:07FORECAST20244412439.7427.51833.62936.0057251914540.464567182.814567188.811.61456718TT7.74127.7449340.2543606242612.2511050038310.583351739751111635151222.5WETL
2023-11-04 00:00:04FORECAST20244412439.14626.74432.94522.7327423604410.208661531.688661538.7710.45866153TT7.146121.14649331.420177866767.53408951649640.556685098713621635152245WETL
2023-11-03 20:00:04FORECAST20244412444.72629.0336.87821.7621285601610.204724521.694724528.5910.28472452TT12.726128.72649330.762398927437.19809384832590.782457694903621645152250WETL
2023-11-03 16:00:04FORECAST20244412433.4429.67831.55914.3854716818580.019685051.939685058.8310.76968505TT1.44121.4449325.709934105084.68549103356840.305116524892691625153260WETL
2023-11-03 12:00:05FORECAST20244412435.4233.76434.59215.2812498465200.718.849.55TT3.42127.4249326.328537761894.9867079175890.388441581649451625133236WETH
2023-11-03 08:00:06FORECAST20244412435.29433.76434.52916.46541200346100.698.729.41TT3.294123.29449327.144135588085.38656297697390.382932708028721625132224WETL
2023-11-03 04:00:19FORECAST20244412431.9131.42431.66719.20252123233300.629.39.92TT-0.09100.9149329.019971857366.31801299545250.246776300744421615132221WETL