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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, November 12, 2023

[ Saturday, November 11, 2023 | Index | Today | Monday, November 13, 2023 ]

DAY 43 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/13/2023 07:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 34.73°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 27.43°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 31.08°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.315
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 3
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 119

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.02 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.07 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.58 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.65 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 24 in
SWE DAY: 50
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 333.52 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 8.12 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 123

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 5
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 2
D5: 2
HSdry: 8.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-11-13 07:00:05OBSERVATION20244312334.7300627.4299831.0800224.3470641666670.0199999999999820.0699999999999826.586.65TF2.73006118.7300650333.51717458795 8.12016405037810.314791314245716 2511228WETL
2023-11-13 03:00:06OBSERVATION20244312334.7300627.4299831.0800224.3470641666670.0199999999999820.0699999999999826.586.65TF2.73006118.7300650333.51717458795 8.12016405037810.314791314245716 2511228WETL
2023-11-12 11:00:02FORECAST20244312334.57427.08630.8322.7691093651940.279527710.329527716.586.90952771TT2.574118.57450332.455400473327.56971337242640.308412083579011625122216WETL
2023-11-12 07:00:05FORECAST20244312333.69226.58230.13722.9417794435020.307086780.357086786.586.93708678TT1.692117.69250332.571794170427.62978875098750.27347827313421625122216WETL
2023-11-12 03:00:05FORECAST20244312335.18626.5130.84823.332904959570.460630170.510630176.587.09063017TT3.186119.18650332.835255923397.76601339365450.33374179728111625132224WETL
2023-11-11 23:00:02FORECAST20244312334.5225.66430.09218.1797205217560.389763991.849763996.588.42976399TT2.52118.5250329.342994637835.98736359831380.306217997555931625152240WETL
2023-11-11 19:00:02FORECAST20244312334.44824.81829.63318.5367913721670.488189241.948189246.588.52818924TT2.448118.44850329.586454667746.1094753492680.303303327921861625152240WETL
2023-11-11 15:00:01FORECAST20244312334.19625.95230.07418.2647667890740.425197081.885197086.588.46519708TT2.196118.19650329.401001390376.01643247048250.293201019248321625152240WETL
2023-11-11 11:00:03FORECAST20244312334.89826.5130.70422.919572304780.496063261.956063266.588.53606326TT2.898118.89850332.556827610437.62206025586550.321718343617321625152240WETL
2023-11-11 07:00:06FORECAST20244312334.3425.82630.08323.5662991784440.527559342.227559346.588.80755934TT2.34118.3450332.992345386197.84739723550280.298954721573791625152240WETL
2023-11-11 03:00:05FORECAST20244312333.60226.52830.06522.9625346857880.3937011.9737016.588.553701TT1.602117.60250332.585781457777.63701254272370.270026630992681625152240WETL
2023-11-10 23:00:02FORECAST20244312333.78227.53630.65920.8721292997510.614173562.394173566.588.97417356TT1.782115.78250331.173314688966.91229224481530.276951589605971625152240WETL
2023-11-10 19:00:02FORECAST20244312333.5327.15830.34419.9696181021180.448819142.148819146.588.72881914TT1.53116.5350330.56117482566.60118042065490.267281080950151625152240WETL
2023-11-10 15:00:02FORECAST20244312333.94426.70830.32619.6735231698390.460630172.120630176.588.70063017TT1.944116.94450330.360038714566.49934587603960.283257404659491625152240WETL
2023-11-10 11:00:02FORECAST20244312334.5227.26630.89320.8816950981930.559055422.159055426.588.73905542TT2.52118.5250331.179795302666.91559550819190.306217997555931625152240WETL
2023-11-10 07:00:04FORECAST20244312334.77226.99630.88420.4809554388290.555118412.105118416.588.68511841TT2.772117.77250330.908168259916.7773154484760.316515249888231625152240WETL
2023-11-10 03:00:06FORECAST20244312334.89827.73431.31620.6073091325510.696850772.176850776.588.75685077TT2.898118.89850330.993842437616.82089243208290.321718343617321625152240WETL
2023-11-09 23:00:02FORECAST20244312334.23227.57230.90222.6116176072260.566929441.936929446.928.85692944TT2.232116.23250332.349193676817.51495287948990.294634629853461625152240WETL
2023-11-09 19:00:02FORECAST20244312334.62827.3230.97422.2964382427220.488189241.898189246.928.81818924TT2.628118.62850332.136520378447.40546141477070.31061302788481625152240WETL
2023-11-09 15:00:04FORECAST20244312334.35826.11430.23621.384584099390.358267911.558267916.928.47826791TT2.358115.35850331.520269675577.08942308752950.299677522267831625152240WETL
2023-11-09 11:00:03FORECAST20244312335.02426.76230.89322.3074680554950.385826981.545826986.928.46582698TT3.024116.02450332.143965830567.40929090759080.326956612090941625152240WETL
2023-11-09 07:00:05FORECAST20244312334.23226.04230.13722.6128830231180.417323061.607323066.948.54732306TT2.232113.23250332.350047197257.51539273999920.294634629853461625152240WETL
2023-11-09 03:00:05FORECAST20244312334.4325.98830.20922.1657317735450.374015951.514015956.888.39401595TT2.43113.4350332.048273735177.36009297148260.302576600767371625152240WETL
2023-11-08 23:00:03FORECAST20244312336.66225.86231.26223.1449941320550.539370371.679370376.838.50937037TT4.662117.66250332.708712046587.70054118800150.397828651097691625152240WETL
2023-11-08 19:00:03FORECAST20244312334.98826.0630.52422.8200749855760.574803461.514803466.818.32480346TT2.988112.98850332.489760762937.58744127254640.325456425555971625152240WETL
2023-11-08 15:00:03FORECAST20244312334.84424.56629.70522.1799165622850.503937281.313937286.838.14393728TT2.844111.84450332.057852031087.3650154519010.319484088680181625142232WETL
2023-11-08 11:00:05FORECAST20244312336.5928.50832.54920.5633431731660.732283861.472283866.798.26228386TT4.59121.5950330.964034418646.80572701772610.394621067312321625142232WETL
2023-11-08 07:00:07FORECAST20244312335.6928.0431.86521.3264690269790.641732631.321732636.788.10173263TT3.69117.6950331.480945852917.0693181247660.355192606415981625142232WETL
2023-11-08 03:00:08FORECAST20244312334.0729.71431.89224.8821683051961.177165992.047165996.778.81716599TT2.07110.0750333.876270251478.30756554950840.288209004734461625152240WETL
2023-11-07 23:00:03FORECAST20244312331.33428.54429.93910.5461812865021.106299812.056299817.589.63629981TT-0.666106.33450324.085083328063.41786004102880.190789329166161615153252.5WETL
2023-11-07 19:00:03FORECAST20244312331.53227.87829.70510.9204805042841.157480942.107480947.629.72748094TT-0.468106.53250324.345280942113.54200631718470.19708161652881615153252.5WETL
2023-11-07 15:00:03FORECAST20244312332.70228.32830.5159.01323042755420.744094891.704094897.699.39409489TT0.702114.70250323.016853174642.91142532964650.236750902275371615153252.5WETL
2023-11-07 11:00:04FORECAST20244312334.1627.48230.8219.14991232225220.141732361.261732367.598.85173236TT2.16114.1650323.112268346242.95644892561210.291770647905381625143248WETL
2023-11-07 07:00:06FORECAST20244312334.84427.60831.2269.15673276273040.145669371.285669377.618.89566937TT2.844112.84450323.117028705362.95869628294250.319484088680181625143248WETL
2023-11-07 03:00:06FORECAST20244312336.33829.31832.82810.7166827806360.496063261.746063267.529.26606326TT4.338121.33850324.20363971953.47438756320140.383451987614251625153260WETH
2023-11-06 23:00:04FORECAST20244312335.04227.3231.18110.8487805290070.527559341.467559348.910.36755934TT3.042113.04250324.29545718423.51821024154530.327707756577051625143248WETL
2023-11-06 19:00:05FORECAST20244312334.03427.35630.69511.8047509371490.574803461.604803468.8710.47480346TT2.034108.03450324.95900818263.83606015637860.286790106355131625153260WETL
2023-11-06 15:00:03FORECAST20244312332.32428.6730.4979.63476108210610.535433361.275433368.7610.03543336TT0.324106.32450323.450465502843.11636795701590.223477282790731615143242WETL
2023-11-06 11:00:04FORECAST20244312333.38627.0530.21813.3880335926990.417323061.087323068.89.88732306TT1.386109.38650326.054446588054.36522788396980.261832514537571625143248WETL
2023-11-06 07:00:08FORECAST20244312336.01429.35432.68412.0196690681710.374015951.024015958.869.88401595TT4.014121.01450325.107963840363.90769013678810.369233993089951625143248WETH
2023-11-06 03:00:08FORECAST20244312336.06827.7731.91915.000933758780.90551231.67551238.6610.3355123TT4.068113.06850327.165856176014.90779333663090.371591870324711625153260WETL
2023-11-05 23:00:04FORECAST20244312333.54829.17431.36121.0817520384271.14173292.60173298.9111.5117329TT1.548111.54850331.315293312696.9847068601570.267966147419671625152240WETL
2023-11-05 19:00:05FORECAST20244312334.30427.66230.98321.0523567224621.10236282.56236288.7911.3523628TT2.304110.30450331.295388261736.97454869419260.297511498734111625152240WETL
2023-11-05 15:00:03FORECAST20244312330.72224.49427.60819.586602760040.716535821.946535828.9910.93653582TT-1.278102.72250330.300965298746.46947379856410.172130757621641615152235WETL
2023-11-05 11:00:04FORECAST20244312332.52226.00629.26415.3214903130560.763779941.363779948.619.97377994TT0.522113.52250327.386201894445.01604452095370.230376790593411615142228WETL
2023-11-05 07:00:07FORECAST20244312331.24423.7227.48216.4766310791550.763779941.383779948.529.90377994TT-0.756102.24450328.178741697785.40728005497570.187970326612191615142228WETL
2023-11-05 03:00:06FORECAST20244312330.93825.48428.21110.808173378820.476378210.916378218.379.28637821TT-1.062107.93850324.267235564873.50473650305590.178579093037761615133231.5WETL
2023-11-05 00:00:04FORECAST20244312333.63829.08431.36121.2230271653710.342519870.612519878.769.37251987TT1.638105.63850331.410937093547.03354332083730.271404671748351625132224WETL
2023-11-04 20:00:04FORECAST20244312333.1728.20230.68623.2750217618210.358267910.608267919.119.71826791TT1.17113.1750332.796282359167.74584071416250.253767684195531625132224WETL
2023-11-04 16:00:03FORECAST20244312331.0125.9728.4926.463890334680.555118410.985118418.89.78511841TT-0.99102.0150334.934877171888.86367985873610.180761836264641615132221WETL
2023-11-04 12:00:04FORECAST20244312331.49626.81629.15625.365993329480.66929171.77929178.510.2792917TT-0.504106.49650334.200533834528.47732851195510.195928336174591615152235WETL
2023-11-04 08:00:05FORECAST20244312330.225.10627.65327.5631007832780.649606651.769606658.9110.67960665TT-1.8103.250335.668050374829.25205230220780.157168066096451615152235WETL
2023-11-04 04:00:07FORECAST20244312335.04229.01232.02734.0081385011091.196851042.386851048.9611.34685104TT3.042115.04250339.9259443883611.560248596880.327707756577051625151220WETL
2023-11-04 00:00:04FORECAST20244312332.2727.15829.71420.826810693431.421260611.481260618.9710.45126061TT0.27109.2750331.142610210436.89664445538070.221616167905761615142228WETL
2023-11-03 20:00:04FORECAST20244312334.44829.40831.92820.1325936783811.429134631.489134638.7910.27913463TT2.448111.44850330.67181895876.65728137198670.303303327921861625142232WETL
2023-11-03 16:00:04FORECAST20244312335.4230.4732.94514.238947246421.665355231.915355239.0310.94535523TT3.42115.4250326.641357524694.6510290582930.343638806252451625153260WETH
2023-11-03 12:00:04FORECAST20244312336.64431.56834.10615.406709846520.555118410.705118419.049.74511841TT4.644118.64450327.444750329145.04484625908720.397026098328131625132224WETL
2023-11-03 08:00:06FORECAST20244312338.17429.96634.0716.5891008034610.543307380.693307388.929.61330738TT6.174115.17450328.255782800895.44546827020320.466456975085931625132224WETL
2023-11-03 04:00:18FORECAST20244312338.37228.45433.41319.2025212323330.338582860.638582869.4810.11858286TT6.37296.37250330.039777107166.33759582741470.475564214854331625132224WETL
2023-11-03 00:00:05FORECAST20244312333.0829.49831.28913.392423908499008.668.66TT1.08110.0850326.057478030234.36669996431680.250446190814911625113212WETL
2023-11-02 20:00:05FORECAST20244312333.6229.60631.61311.420449531675008.58.5TT1.62106.6250324.692453427123.708133777680.270715214103461625113212WETL
2023-11-02 16:00:05FORECAST20244312337.99429.76833.8818.525969407363100.818.068.87TT5.994125.99450322.676435360142.75112941635750.458192753736331625133236WETH
2023-11-02 12:00:05FORECAST20244312328.68827.03227.8615.7958712926510.181102461.561102468.259.81110246TT-3.312119.68850327.711955165835.17649586486220.118774130826621615152235WETL
2023-11-02 08:00:04FORECAST20244312328.61627.0527.83321.1125735278030.181102461.621102468.379.99110246TT-3.384107.61650331.336162501576.99535909323450.117127058686981615152235WETL
2023-11-02 04:00:07FORECAST20244312333.13432.64832.89118.6189766611220.251968640.871968648.118.98196864TT1.134104.13450329.64245944476.13760525891590.252436321536791625132224WETL