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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, November 11, 2023

[ Friday, November 10, 2023 | Index | Today | Sunday, November 12, 2023 ]

DAY 42 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/12/2023 07:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 31.95°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 29.32°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 30.63°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.231
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 0
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 118

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.03 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.08 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.67 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.75 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 22 in
SWE DAY: 51
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 332.99 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 7.35 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 122

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 5
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 2
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-11-12 07:00:05OBSERVATION20244212231.9499629.3199830.6349722.0668850.0300000000000860.0800000000000866.676.7500000000001TT-0.050039999999999117.9499651332.99009047913 7.34805403274250.2308274586720116 1511227WETL
2023-11-12 03:00:05OBSERVATION20244212231.9499629.3199830.6349722.0668850.0300000000000860.0800000000000866.676.7500000000001TT-0.050039999999999117.9499651332.99009047913 7.34805403274250.2308274586720116 1511227WETL
2023-11-11 11:00:02FORECAST20244212231.87427.03229.45321.4520044450241.440945661.490945666.678.16094566TT-0.126117.87451332.576031827057.13442251306230.228305825444111615142228WETL
2023-11-11 07:00:05FORECAST20244212232.19827.87830.03821.9423844055951.677166261.727166266.678.39716626TT0.198118.19851332.906304371287.30475810156060.239168786578251615152235WETL
2023-11-11 03:00:04FORECAST20244212231.78427.71629.7521.6441096802141.555118951.605118956.678.27511895TT-0.216117.78451332.705464359557.20111356180450.225338216204331615152235WETL
2023-11-10 23:00:02FORECAST20244212231.49627.51829.50718.7540368031931.452756691.812756696.678.48275669TT-0.504116.49651330.751565459886.20292703134830.21598980985131615152235WETL
2023-11-10 19:00:02FORECAST20244212231.7328.68830.20918.4694754260521.366142471.726142476.678.39614247TT-0.27116.7351330.558404540166.10524032952950.223568168272921615152235WETL
2023-11-10 15:00:02FORECAST20244212232.46827.9530.20918.1645416318021.326772371.686772376.678.35677237TT0.468117.46851330.351259753256.00067921090610.248432437923781615152235WETL
2023-11-10 11:00:02FORECAST20244212233.24228.52630.88419.0912160773061.271654231.631654236.678.30165423TT1.242118.24251330.980262878336.31881571593380.276011569006921625152240WETL
2023-11-10 07:00:04FORECAST20244212232.4528.6730.5618.7489541734571.263780211.583780216.678.25378021TT0.45117.4551330.748116583516.20118128078160.247808977748631615152235WETL
2023-11-10 03:00:06FORECAST20244212233.42228.90431.16318.4667524024251.275591241.505591246.678.17559124TT1.422118.42251330.556555470966.10430606488070.282633999554361625152240WETL
2023-11-09 23:00:02FORECAST20244212232.59428.41830.50620.6496726490551.188977021.738977026.678.40897702TT0.594115.59451332.034770736246.85640932380730.252819929946331625152240WETL
2023-11-09 19:00:01FORECAST20244212233.5328.83231.18120.6253228867421.216536091.776536096.678.44653609TT1.53117.5351332.018326889686.84798519641540.286643734946051625152240WETL
2023-11-09 15:00:03FORECAST20244212231.53226.97829.25520.1576885731471.055118681.565118686.678.23511868TT-0.468114.53251331.70232735616.68635221383250.217145949205391615152235WETL
2023-11-09 11:00:03FORECAST20244212232.48627.46429.97521.0873843817951.003937551.533937556.678.20393755TT0.486115.48651332.330192201477.00797450462830.249056731824911625152240WETL
2023-11-09 07:00:04FORECAST20244212230.9226.47428.69721.1548124137351.074803731.584803736.678.25480373TT-1.08112.9251332.375671704477.03134498579730.197981038090921615152235WETL
2023-11-09 03:00:05FORECAST20244212231.29826.1528.72420.8438154527721.011811571.471811576.678.14181157TT-0.702113.29851332.165842601726.92360352290480.209694989260471615142228WETL
2023-11-08 23:00:03FORECAST20244212231.08226.9629.02121.3695240382240.98425251.47425256.628.0942525TT-0.918115.08251332.520440570837.10580354797910.202952239031361615142228WETL
2023-11-08 19:00:02FORECAST20244212230.79426.49228.64320.7382884247550.7874021.2474026.627.867402TT-1.206111.79451332.094606029956.88707372415440.194165764007791615142228WETL
2023-11-08 15:00:03FORECAST20244212230.30825.26827.78820.3364659090630.657480671.137480676.627.75748067TT-1.692111.30851331.823178796336.74811076342840.179872975225561615142228WETL
2023-11-08 11:00:04FORECAST20244212234.48427.64431.06419.5364044845710.586614491.026614496.627.64661449TT2.484119.48451331.281919407326.47205757596650.323178916931791625142232WETL
2023-11-08 07:00:07FORECAST20244212233.67427.4130.54219.3391649202290.527559340.957559346.627.57755934TT1.674115.67451331.148313352056.40413184497090.292031590818191625132224WETL
2023-11-08 03:00:07FORECAST20244212232.14427.08629.61520.2991306277650.744094891.144094896.627.76409489TT0.144110.14451331.797945105346.73520982971730.237338937521161615142228WETL
2023-11-07 23:00:03FORECAST20244212231.89227.62629.7595.55151548489470.704724791.354724797.38.65472479TT-0.108108.89251321.640996907361.78559497490820.228901967674861615144256WETL
2023-11-07 19:00:03FORECAST20244212231.44228.25629.8495.66836783558010.685039741.385039747.38.68503974TT-0.558109.44251321.722979785621.82364419058380.21426229183841615144256WETL
2023-11-07 15:00:03FORECAST20244212232.64827.60830.1285.64963649290310.677165721.467165727.38.76716572TT0.648115.64851321.709839630371.81754365010170.254712676937971625144264WETL
2023-11-07 11:00:04FORECAST20244212232.05427.26629.668.59878502932250.913386321.533386327.38.83338632TT0.054000000000002114.05451323.771005613122.78403727599480.234306319633831615153252.5WETL
2023-11-07 07:00:06FORECAST20244212232.19827.0529.6248.60820146750470.960630441.540630447.338.87063044TT0.198112.19851323.777562084282.7871424850790.239168786578251615153252.5WETL
2023-11-07 03:00:06FORECAST20244212233.65626.07829.8678.72227749929091.086614761.706614767.188.88661476TT1.656118.65651323.856978410012.8247704357740.291355539581951625153260WETL
2023-11-06 23:00:04FORECAST20244212230.61425.98828.3018.33459936446850.86614221.34614228.619.9561422TT-1.386111.61451323.586994666822.69696796010040.188793525407171615143242WETL
2023-11-06 19:00:04FORECAST20244212231.2825.3428.318.98931657886960.901575291.381575298.6410.02157529TT-0.72108.2851324.042793084242.91292325213540.209128121637471615143242WETL
2023-11-06 15:00:02FORECAST20244212231.31627.37429.3457.05577131662620.614173561.074173568.559.62417356TT-0.684108.31651322.694516087322.27685871064150.210262757637351615144256WETL
2023-11-06 11:00:03FORECAST20244212231.78425.03428.40911.4110555857380.507874290.977874298.619.58787429TT-0.216109.78451325.722177786973.71683387623470.225338216204331615133231.5WETL
2023-11-06 07:00:08FORECAST20244212233.49427.6830.58710.6270429288440.492126250.942126258.699.63212625TT1.494119.49451325.179624970413.45569783414580.285304165581771625133236WETL
2023-11-06 03:00:08FORECAST20244212232.3626.72629.54311.1088506601970.685039740.995039748.559.54503974TT0.36111.3651325.513173746053.61607723507160.24470422778751615143242WETL
2023-11-05 23:00:03FORECAST20244212232.88225.37629.12915.2119383372481.322835361.572835368.9210.49283536TT0.882111.88251328.337205036874.99464531684530.262999406564611625153260WETL
2023-11-05 19:00:04FORECAST20244212233.06224.58428.82315.334768305741.307087321.537087328.8310.36708732TT1.062110.06251328.421292308695.03626442422560.269466169322721625152240WETL
2023-11-05 15:00:03FORECAST20244212232.10823.0927.59915.3136677301221.082677751.312677759.0310.34267775TT0.108106.10851328.406849085795.02911336719610.236123315072661615142228WETL
2023-11-05 11:00:04FORECAST20244212234.23223.70228.96711.2876576936090.43307110.65307118.689.3330711TT2.232115.23251325.636855545723.67567735782330.313341194923141625133236WETL
2023-11-05 07:00:07FORECAST20244212232.0922.29827.19411.9909889666330.448819140.688819148.579.25881914TT0.090000000000003105.0951326.122808955293.91053500395040.235516790365081615133231.5WETL
2023-11-05 03:00:05FORECAST20244212231.80224.22428.0137.9906812670930.23622060.45622068.478.9262206TT-0.198110.80251323.347263307692.58376491967860.225929987762071615123221WETL
2023-11-05 00:00:03FORECAST20244212233.60225.32229.46219.1346531837990.125984320.455984328.699.14598432TT1.602105.60251331.009710575276.33375601232740.289331775844411625122216WETL
2023-11-04 20:00:04FORECAST20244212234.39425.48429.93921.0707549317210.110236280.440236289.049.48023628TT2.394114.39451332.318974613727.00221167324640.319650771241831625122216WETL
2023-11-04 16:00:03FORECAST20244212231.31622.11826.71722.7487700589530.228346580.648346588.79.34834658TT-0.684105.31651333.44851416997.58554357535060.210262757637351615132221WETL
2023-11-04 12:00:04FORECAST20244212233.99825.32229.6620.9741082730520.980315491.240315498.499.73031549TT1.998108.99851332.253771113376.96872656946170.304323298301451625142232WETL
2023-11-04 08:00:05FORECAST20244212233.04423.9928.51723.0555149529750.996063531.226063538.9210.14606353TT1.044107.04451333.654476546757.69257577315060.268815928575051625142232WETL
2023-11-04 04:00:06FORECAST20244212233.85426.52830.19126.9254714628731.145669911.295669918.9710.26566991TT1.854113.85451336.239203658899.05339908281660.298831871788191625142232WETL
2023-11-04 00:00:03FORECAST20244212232.7225.39429.05710.2473856967870.059055150.059055159.099.14905515TT0.72110.7251324.916505856773.32954475476670.257247817652911625113212WETL
2023-11-03 20:00:04FORECAST20244212234.14225.55629.84910.5521957362250.059055150.059055158.918.96905515TT2.142111.14251325.127772661413.4308118964060.309859164561251625113212WETL
2023-11-03 16:00:04FORECAST20244212235.9628.97632.4689.81215859379110.251968640.251968649.159.40196864TT3.96113.9651324.614562060673.18516956479330.383108224684431625123224WETH
2023-11-03 12:00:04FORECAST20244212236.1428.45432.29712.1486759158640.145669370.145669379.169.30566937TT4.14116.1451326.23164067793.96328247609630.390647171719451625123224WETH
2023-11-03 08:00:05FORECAST20244212234.53826.4230.47913.1606377497320.149606380.149606389.049.18960638TT2.538110.53851326.929035755894.30259460945230.325303485164281625123224WETL
2023-11-03 04:00:18FORECAST20244212232.86424.76428.81416.9395537287880.27559070.29559079.69.8955907TT0.86491.86451329.517493622585.58187928779510.2623571147721625122216WETL
2023-11-03 00:00:05FORECAST20244212238.49829.87634.18713.403641508499008.788.78TT6.498111.49851327.096235435874.38428067856180.492168782111421625113212WETH
2023-11-02 20:00:04FORECAST20244212237.41830.12833.77311.449575931675008.628.62TT5.418107.41851325.748806819263.72968569832950.445199364914721625113212WETH
2023-11-02 16:00:04FORECAST20244212246.07632.12639.1018.67632460736310.807087050.807087058.188.98708705TT14.076122.07651323.824990147052.80961073049190.790908419518051645133245WETH
2023-11-02 12:00:04FORECAST20244212235.76227.9531.85614.1068615072661.37795351.37795358.379.7479535TT3.762124.76251327.579507644474.6211187469590.37486630681991625143248WETL
2023-11-02 08:00:04FORECAST20244212233.58427.91430.74919.4231680401211.437008651.437008658.499.92700865TT1.584112.58451331.205223534176.433054712470.288658657300341625142232WETL
2023-11-02 04:00:06FORECAST20244212237.428.50832.95416.5495184804340.622047580.622047588.238.85204758TT5.4105.451329.251478135635.44895342211580.444421188608111625132224WETL
2023-11-02 00:00:04FORECAST20244212234.14229.31831.7312.6393095768690.23622060.23622068.088.3162206TT2.142111.14251326.569985499794.12761914524550.309859164561251625123224WETL
2023-11-01 20:00:05FORECAST20244212234.59232.03633.31410.4515426962240.244094620.244094627.98.14409462TT2.592123.59251325.058027147343.39735784948060.327433742458871625123224WETH
2023-11-01 16:00:04FORECAST20244212233.47628.99431.23515.0141382870110.098425250.248425257.958.19842525TT1.476103.47651328.201739392594.92766630127810.28463549986271625123224WETL
2023-11-01 12:00:06FORECAST20244212237.63435.4236.52712.664329107090.055118140.315118147.047.35511814TT5.634110.63451326.587227867644.13600813588810.454553105728911625123224WETH
2023-11-01 08:00:04FORECAST20244212231.38829.69630.54212.1222846385440.055118140.315118146.66.91511814TT-0.612101.38851326.213429092983.95445204038060.212542823200291615123221WETL
2023-11-01 04:00:07FORECAST20244212230.54229.80430.17313.00408375435500.477.047.51TT-1.458101.54251326.821263498454.25001108323790.186670473145891615123221WETL