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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, November 10, 2023

[ Thursday, November 9, 2023 | Index | Today | Saturday, November 11, 2023 ]

DAY 41 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/11/2023 07:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 30.67°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 26.31°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 28.49°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.214
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 115

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.02 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.10 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 7.54 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.64 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 17 in
SWE DAY: 52
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 330.43 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 5.55 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 121

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 5
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 2
D5: 2
HSdry: 14.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-11-11 07:00:05OBSERVATION20244112130.6699826.3100228.4916.786383750.0199999999999820.0999999999999827.547.64TT-1.33002114.6699852330.43137298043 5.54674782988880.2135195328477616 15122214WETL
2023-11-11 03:00:04OBSERVATION20244112130.6699826.3100228.4916.786383750.0199999999999820.0999999999999827.547.64TT-1.33002114.6699852330.43137298043 5.54674782988880.2135195328477616 15122214WETL
2023-11-10 11:00:02FORECAST20244112130.48825.28627.88715.158746490160.334645850.414645857.547.95464585TT-1.512114.48852329.323315660034.99212865538930.207790743402431615123221WETL
2023-11-10 07:00:04FORECAST20244112129.76824.63827.20314.8085050904860.287401730.367401737.547.90740173TT-2.232113.76852329.08427999964.87324623557290.186029679548351615123221WETL
2023-11-10 03:00:06FORECAST20244112130.25424.22427.23914.4953457347220.200787510.280787517.547.82078751TT-1.746114.25452328.870372256584.76708974776580.200559090537771615123221WETL
2023-11-09 23:00:01FORECAST20244112130.90224.20627.55416.6653454882420.181102460.601102467.548.14110246TT-1.098111.90252330.349130537155.50538239214210.220955197557411615132221WETL
2023-11-09 19:00:01FORECAST20244112131.85625.08828.47216.6882223798040.192913490.612913497.548.15291349TT-0.144112.85652330.364676745335.51319919195820.253036704237051625132224WETL
2023-11-09 15:00:02FORECAST20244112131.06423.79227.42816.5374479836990.141732360.561732367.548.10173236TT-0.936112.06452330.262199932895.46169395237210.226233442821411615132221WETL
2023-11-09 11:00:02FORECAST20244112131.08225.03428.05817.6969832103090.15748040.57748047.548.1174804TT-0.918112.08252331.049292345155.85857376841680.226824272240961615132221WETL
2023-11-09 07:00:04FORECAST20244112130.39824.45827.42817.3469080390070.11811030.55811037.548.0981103TT-1.602111.39852330.811905589445.73856370446860.204991326676961615132221WETL
2023-11-09 03:00:04FORECAST20244112129.94824.24227.09517.187663803940.129921330.509921337.548.04992133TT-2.052110.94852330.703851850315.68402662427110.19133330721721615132221WETL
2023-11-08 23:00:02FORECAST20244112130.68625.3428.01317.6493775779780.161417410.491417417.548.03141741TT-1.314112.68652331.017023258675.84224442823040.21402820931611615132221WETL
2023-11-08 19:00:02FORECAST20244112129.44424.58427.01417.6735296722170.153543390.463543397.548.00354339TT-2.556110.44452331.033395044815.85052852981930.176715013744541615122214WETL
2023-11-08 15:00:03FORECAST20244112129.62423.93626.7817.7510876847820.149606380.479606387.548.01960638TT-2.376109.62452331.085961881375.87713594055670.181852932837571615122214WETL
2023-11-08 11:00:04FORECAST20244112131.44225.1628.30117.3760032082830.149606380.439606387.547.97960638TT-0.558114.44252330.831643132345.74853169246910.238821757207771615122214WETL
2023-11-08 07:00:06FORECAST20244112130.2924.92627.60817.3512527916750.153543390.433543397.547.97354339TT-1.71111.2952330.814853069725.74005214285340.201661731299321615122214WETL
2023-11-08 03:00:07FORECAST20244112130.2924.83627.56317.4017731332250.129921330.399921337.547.93992133TT-1.71107.2952330.849123682275.75736139164510.201661731299321615122214WETL
2023-11-07 23:00:02FORECAST20244112129.17424.24226.7082.59681801556220.251968640.651968648.228.87196864TT-2.826106.17452320.61557782390.8325803085630.169181697507391615134242WETL
2023-11-07 19:00:03FORECAST20244112129.35424.49426.9242.79415409707290.259842660.699842668.228.91984266TT-2.646107.35452320.754527280120.896237576554440.174180734803781615134242WETL
2023-11-07 15:00:03FORECAST20244112130.86625.21428.042.88512120107270.27559070.78559078.229.0055907TT-1.134111.86652320.818556130140.925600417988590.219791882881541615134242WETL
2023-11-07 11:00:03FORECAST20244112130.61425.26827.9414.80786489930070.208661530.618661538.228.83866153TT-1.386110.61452322.168458904661.54894242522950.211747553860441615134242WETL
2023-11-07 07:00:06FORECAST20244112130.00224.90827.4554.64962793103170.177165450.577165458.258.82716545TT-1.998109.00252322.057614085951.49744807785550.192942252414111615134242WETL
2023-11-07 03:00:05FORECAST20244112131.94624.92628.4364.15887211949620.15748040.61748048.18.7174804TT-0.053999999999998113.94652321.713556708291.33796554145810.256184691711081625134248WETL
2023-11-06 23:00:03FORECAST20244112129.62423.37826.5014.30423195782250.070866180.480866189.5310.01086618TT-2.376109.62452321.815509784411.3851686017370.181852932837571615124228WETL
2023-11-06 19:00:04FORECAST20244112129.53423.23426.3844.8646183241650.129921330.479921339.5610.03992133TT-2.466105.53452322.208203761531.56741993221460.179272425289691615124228WETL
2023-11-06 15:00:02FORECAST20244112129.06623.1826.1234.27160192805390.125984320.455984329.479.92598432TT-2.934106.06652321.792626877521.37457000540350.1662268344411615124228WETL
2023-11-06 11:00:03FORECAST20244112129.69622.13625.9169.02166493489970.161417410.471417419.5310.00141741TT-2.304106.69652325.103890888862.93297837263150.183933940359171615123221WETL
2023-11-06 07:00:07FORECAST20244112132.10825.50228.8058.5857577415060.15748040.44748049.6110.0574804TT0.108115.10852324.80168259942.7886685608320.261902035178781625123224WETL
2023-11-06 03:00:07FORECAST20244112130.0224.09827.0597.94346718407620.082677210.312677219.479.78267721TT-1.98108.0252324.355781457612.57650950597390.193480394439611615123221WETL
2023-11-05 23:00:03FORECAST20244112129.33623.32426.338.76457249000310.137795350.247795359.8410.08779535TT-2.664108.33652324.925692812832.84783478852260.173676657815451615123221WETL
2023-11-05 19:00:04FORECAST20244112129.04822.92825.9888.94649241063130.149606380.229606389.759.97960638TT-2.952106.04852325.051798714612.90807345026230.165737609473131615123221WETL
2023-11-05 15:00:03FORECAST20244112128.65223.05425.8539.79802409382070.149606380.229606389.9510.17960638TT-3.348102.65252325.641301745323.19064132044380.15520995537621615123221WETL
2023-11-05 11:00:03FORECAST20244112130.93823.66627.3029.16296861076870.169291430.219291439.69.81929143TT-1.062109.93852325.20178293672.9798137292150.222122022283721615123221WETL
2023-11-05 07:00:06FORECAST20244112129.31822.35225.8359.61994883584080.165354420.235354429.499.72535442TT-2.682102.31852325.51812824473.13146773885270.173173507653371615123221WETL
2023-11-05 03:00:05FORECAST20244112129.08423.6326.3576.80862013612710.200787510.220787519.399.61078751TT-2.916108.08452323.566149586682.2030390014450.166716988825511615124228WETL
2023-11-05 00:00:03FORECAST20244112128.54424.3526.44718.4979175642970.141732360.331732369.619.94173236TT-3.456100.54452331.591614459146.13375434927710.152416916226421615122214WETL
2023-11-04 20:00:03FORECAST20244112130.14625.46627.80620.5735922378320.137795350.327795359.9610.28779535TT-1.854109.14652332.991954480446.85084068995940.19727291214071615122214WETL
2023-11-04 16:00:03FORECAST20244112128.27423.0925.68221.4259526492760.200787510.420787519.6210.04078751TT-3.726103.27452333.564858800967.14694487013160.145580702734931615122214WETL
2023-11-04 12:00:04FORECAST20244112127.66224.99826.3315.8836234016310.133858340.263858349.419.67385834TT-4.338103.66252329.817360700825.23869474869180.130856631746571615122214WETL
2023-11-04 08:00:04FORECAST20244112128.99425.05227.02317.6679901051950.122047310.232047319.8410.07204731TT-3.006102.99452331.029640071775.84862840531410.164275512168871615122214WETL
2023-11-04 04:00:06FORECAST20244112131.74827.60829.67820.9067394105850.043307110.153307119.8910.04330711TT-0.252108.74852333.216023214956.96646056478660.249286117012491625122216WETL
2023-11-04 00:00:03FORECAST20244112135.4228.00431.7129.8653342126750010.0110.01TT3.42107.4252325.687845210453.2130194420070.391091795637751625113212WETL
2023-11-03 20:00:04FORECAST20244112134.98827.39231.1910.2340406442009.839.83TT2.988105.98852325.942656460043.33571039389050.37313490427971625113212WETL
2023-11-03 16:00:04FORECAST20244112137.50828.9433.2249.992328993791100.0610.0110.07TT5.508106.50852325.775637638693.25525734944780.480504395233921625113212WETH
2023-11-03 12:00:04FORECAST20244112136.33828.9432.63911.5405711351170010.0810.08TT4.338109.33852326.843674805423.7719626791550.429984084463091625113212WETH
2023-11-03 08:00:05FORECAST20244112133.81827.69830.75812.309696137071009.969.96TT1.818104.81852327.372687443064.02985830600030.325961780004681625113212WETL
2023-11-03 04:00:16FORECAST20244112131.8225.01628.41815.1291865355080.023622060.0236220610.5210.54362206TT-0.1887.8252329.303149551884.98208877630060.251783223560671625113212WETL
2023-11-03 00:00:05FORECAST20244112136.80628.72432.76513.705139108499009.79.7TT4.806101.80652328.329853948174.49980632183260.45010190931931625113212WETH
2023-11-02 20:00:04FORECAST20244112136.06826.92431.49611.697248731675009.549.54TT4.06899.06852326.951523216313.82443329026110.418456377618151625113212WETL
2023-11-02 16:00:04FORECAST20244112137.43626.8732.1537.138210460572009.19.1TT5.436105.43652323.795714650222.31132195740460.477377942040131625114216WETH
2023-11-02 12:00:04FORECAST20244112138.31830.23634.27710.144841650082009.299.29TT6.318118.31852325.88103334293.30601148002890.515714335178391635113213.5WETH
2023-11-02 08:00:04FORECAST20244112136.53627.48232.0099.3657858266957009.419.41TT4.536107.53652325.342228806513.04708563538160.438476414449031625113212WETH
2023-11-02 04:00:06FORECAST20244112133.65626.94230.29912.68064294877300.089.079.15TT1.65696.65652327.627459560384.15452683489870.31962422081911625113212WETL
2023-11-02 00:00:04FORECAST20244112132.95427.64430.29910.82401137761800.18.99TT0.954105.95452326.349886320153.53241488261350.292783691194311625123224WETL
2023-11-01 20:00:04FORECAST20244112136.91430.12833.5218.493880304910700.118.718.82TT4.914117.91452324.737942565942.7582852146180.454764697619511625123224WETH
2023-11-01 16:00:04FORECAST20244112134.17829.19231.68514.1948463463760.149606380.539606388.489.01960638TT2.17899.17852328.664952045174.66534849372020.3402242304731625133236WETL
2023-11-01 12:00:05FORECAST20244112138.42631.51434.9712.5100354553660.106299270.576299277.648.21629927TT6.426102.42652327.510313457514.09716563335150.52040573131635133240.5WETH
2023-11-01 08:00:04FORECAST20244112131.67627.82429.7511.685115936620.106299270.586299277.197.77629927TT-0.32498.67652326.943173187313.82036888338020.246802219913681615133231.5WETL
2023-11-01 04:00:07FORECAST20244112132.28828.7630.52413.0040837543550.366141930.486141937.948.42614193TT0.288100.28852327.849407985434.26338116025820.268330406226541625123224WETL
2023-11-01 00:00:06FORECAST20244112130.66823.93627.3028.48216839801720.153543390.153543397.317.46354339TT-1.33293.66852324.729816353672.7544129861690.213456711585031615123221WETL
2023-10-31 20:00:03FORECAST20244112131.35220.58825.977.74270516171940.133858340.153858347.427.57385834TT-0.64891.35252324.216255968212.51031087859840.235790295809421615123221WETL
2023-10-31 16:00:04FORECAST20244112128.4917.36622.92819.8535083403090.287401731.207401738.069.26740173TT-3.5196.4952332.506990827736.60143031560920.151032949831931615142228WETL
2023-10-31 12:00:04FORECAST20244112137.97635.7836.87812.8106695570480.303149770.363149778.68.96314977TT5.976111.97652327.716707081024.19827044273870.500846985611321635123227WETH
2023-10-31 08:00:05FORECAST20244112137.97635.7836.87812.6120831330650.303149770.373149778.959.32314977TT5.976116.97652327.580389679754.13147110740270.500846985611321635123227WETH
2023-10-31 04:00:07FORECAST20244112131.04629.8430.44313.2732611953820.027559070.127559079.459.57755907TT-0.95480.04652328.03398136024.35408071555490.22564348236371615123221WETL