MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, November 1, 2023

[ Tuesday, October 31, 2023 | Index | Today | Thursday, November 2, 2023 ]

DAY 32 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/02/2023 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
VH
VERY HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 44.10°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 40.61°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 42.35°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.663
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 12
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 261

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.79 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.79 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.34 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.13 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 62
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 329.19 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 112

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 5
D2: 2
D3: 3
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 75.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-11-02 04:00:04OBSERVATION20243211244.0999640.6099442.3549500.789999999999960.789999999999962.343.13FF12.09996261.0999662329.18812954135 00.6626240327711916 35235275DRYVH
2023-11-02 00:00:01FORECAST20243211241.7235.58238.65100.86614220.86614222.343.2061422FF9.72258.7261328.1650818741100.559752350240381635235275DRYVH
2023-11-01 12:00:02FORECAST20243211243.03436.33839.68600.917323330.917323332.343.25732333FF11.034260.03461328.1650818741100.61753773956941635235275DRYVH
2023-11-01 08:00:01FORECAST20243211243.35836.10439.73100.834646120.834646122.343.17464612FF11.358260.35861328.1650818741100.631444343378481635235275DRYVH
2023-11-01 04:00:05FORECAST20243211242.31437.27439.79400.921260340.921260342.343.26126034FF10.314259.31461328.1650818741100.586111019992661635235275DRYVH
2023-11-01 00:00:02FORECAST20243211242.06236.66239.36200.940945390.940945392.343.28094539TF10.062254.06262329.1881295413500.574968699030211635235275DRYVH
2023-10-31 20:00:01FORECAST20243211241.0934.9738.0300.960630440.960630442.343.30063044TF9.09252.0962329.1881295413500.531506404023321635235275DRYVH
2023-10-31 16:00:01FORECAST20243211242.51235.31238.91200.885827250.885827252.343.22582725FF10.512253.51262329.1881295413500.594817803356461635235275DRYVH
2023-10-31 12:00:02FORECAST20243211241.7236.10438.91200.858268180.858268182.343.19826818FF9.72252.7262329.1881295413500.559752350240381635235275DRYVH
2023-10-31 08:00:02FORECAST20243211242.54837.00439.77600.822835090.822835092.343.16283509FF10.548253.54862329.1881295413500.596395961028611635235275DRYVH
2023-10-31 04:00:05FORECAST20243211240.06434.39437.22900.948819410.948819412.343.28881941TF8.064250.06462329.1881295413500.485228809281661625235267.5DRYH
2023-10-31 00:00:03FORECAST20243211240.53235.7838.15600.799213030.799213032.343.13921303FF8.532245.53262329.1881295413500.506350754586041635235275DRYVH
2023-10-30 20:00:01FORECAST20243211242.33237.88640.1090.86806560.673228710.673228712.343.01322871FF10.332250.33262329.779956055290.286270635421110.586904365877511635234260DRYH
2023-10-30 16:00:02FORECAST20243211242.33237.09439.7130.8716080.700787780.700787782.343.04078778FF10.332250.33262329.782368507080.287440950649720.586904365877511635234260DRYH
2023-10-30 12:00:02FORECAST20243211242.3536.87839.61400.480315220.480315222.342.82031522FF10.35251.3562329.1881295413500.587697357093591635225250DRYMH
2023-10-30 08:00:03FORECAST20243211242.81836.1439.47900.362204920.362204922.342.70220492FF10.818251.81862329.1881295413500.60818048770741635225250DRYMH
2023-10-30 04:00:04FORECAST20243211241.77436.57239.17300.570866450.570866452.342.91086645FF9.774249.77462329.1881295413500.562161405457721635235275DRYVH
2023-10-30 00:00:03FORECAST20243211242.40435.43838.9210.48554560.86614220.86614222.343.2061422FF10.404243.40462329.519323811350.159996657791580.590074171475031635234260DRYH
2023-10-29 20:00:02FORECAST20243211241.2735.11438.1921.32193960564831.06299271.06299272.343.4029927TF9.27244.2762330.088877457190.436357560494660.539599202921731635244280DRYVH
2023-10-29 16:00:03FORECAST20243211241.68436.28438.9841.0308218254860.968504460.968504462.343.30850446TF9.684243.68462329.890774191640.340058610063220.558145078126191635234260DRYH
2023-10-29 12:00:03FORECAST20243211240.76636.8638.8130.46232321.149606921.149606922.343.48960692TF8.766242.76662329.503492938190.152337109266360.516908752274291635244280DRYVH
2023-10-29 08:00:03FORECAST20243211243.10636.21239.6590.11251121.055118681.055118682.343.39511868TF11.106245.10662329.264910630940.037045990212980.620641937805791635244280DRYVH
2023-10-29 04:00:05FORECAST20243211242.99837.52640.26200.964567450.964567452.343.30456745TF10.998243.99862329.1881295413500.615982790454611635235275DRYVH
2023-10-29 00:00:03FORECAST20243211244.52836.42840.4780.65790320.586614490.586614492.342.92661449FF12.528250.52862329.636792017430.2168691003060.680132565662821635234260DRYH
2023-10-28 20:00:03FORECAST20243211244.67236.30240.4870.93883520.492126250.492126252.342.83212625FF12.672248.67262329.828147584420.309654274903050.68593615932451635234260DRYH
2023-10-28 16:00:02FORECAST20243211243.57437.41840.4960.7136960.751968910.751968912.343.09196891FF11.574250.57462329.674805898820.235287590270760.640621976739171635234260DRYH
2023-10-28 12:00:04FORECAST20243211242.99835.40239.21.05258560.677165720.677165722.343.01716572FF10.998247.99862329.905589328730.347253872686940.615982790454611635234260DRYH
2023-10-28 08:00:03FORECAST20243211242.06235.58238.8221.44795680.692913760.692913762.343.03291376FF10.062243.06262330.17458570750.478078536562360.574968699030211635234260DRYH
2023-10-28 04:00:04FORECAST20243211242.11635.638.8581.71580796666670.692913760.692913762.343.03291376FF10.116242.11662330.356668595160.566828603817030.577361705924381635234260DRYH
2023-10-28 00:00:02FORECAST20243211240.92833.83637.3820.82345120.440945120.440945122.312.75094512FF8.928239.92862329.749570815870.271532679787810.524211640274191635224240DRYM
2023-10-27 20:00:03FORECAST20243211241.95435.13238.5430.58374880.374015950.374015952.312.68401595FF9.954241.95462329.586259299640.192395583362650.570174475852541635224240DRYM
2023-10-27 16:00:04FORECAST20243211243.19637.23840.21700.133858340.133858342.312.44385834FF11.196250.19662329.1881295413500.62451125753451635225250DRYMH
2023-10-27 12:00:03FORECAST20243211242.94437.29240.1180.145180.03937010.03937012.312.3493701FF10.944245.94462329.287200710580.0478059157991620.613646870354611635214220DRYL
2023-10-27 08:00:02FORECAST20243211242.6237.54440.08200.059055150.059055152.312.36905515FF10.62250.6262329.1881295413500.599547549012351635215225DRYL
2023-10-27 04:00:05FORECAST20243211242.7136.4139.560.70926991666667002.312.31FF10.71244.7162329.671790426730.233826283323320.603477917633441635214220DRYL
2023-10-27 00:00:03FORECAST20243211244.22237.02240.6220002.112.11FF12.222250.22262329.1881295413500.667654040846971635215225DRYL
2023-10-26 20:00:03FORECAST20243211244.25837.5840.9190002.112.11FF12.258255.25862329.1881295413500.669132124401421635215225DRYL
2023-10-26 16:00:04FORECAST20243211242.47637.59840.0370002.112.11FF10.476248.47662329.1881295413500.593238102719821635215225DRYL
2023-10-26 12:00:03FORECAST20243211243.32236.62639.9740.18178480.098425250.098425252.112.20842525FF11.322253.32262329.31217414480.0598639477144770.629907258853061635224240DRYM
2023-10-26 08:00:04FORECAST20243211242.13436.10439.1190.75447280.090551230.090551232.112.20055123FF10.134245.13462329.702585367530.248751632749480.578158745518531635224240DRYM
2023-10-26 04:00:05FORECAST20243211242.27836.21239.2451.009391050.137795350.137795352.112.24779535FF10.278238.27862329.876184934870.332974068681410.584523276749031635224240DRYM
2023-10-26 00:00:05FORECAST20243211241.25232.14436.69800.035433090.035433092.162.19543309FF9.252232.25262329.1881295413500.538790604884471635215225DRYL
2023-10-25 20:00:04FORECAST20243211241.1833.94437.5620002.182.18FF9.18238.1862329.1881295413500.535554642039471635215225DRYL
2023-10-25 16:00:03FORECAST20243211241.25233.13437.19300.181102460.181102462.162.34110246FF9.252233.25262329.1881295413500.538790604884471635225250DRYMH
2023-10-25 12:00:03FORECAST20243211241.57636.66239.11900.385826980.385826982.162.54582698FF9.576230.57662329.1881295413500.553317619354571635225250DRYMH
2023-10-25 08:00:04FORECAST20243211242.60236.96839.78500.330708840.330708842.212.54070884FF10.602229.60262329.1881295413500.598760250608161635225250DRYMH
2023-10-25 04:00:08FORECAST20243211241.50435.85238.67800.322834820.352834822.282.63283482FF9.504227.50462329.1881295413500.550094873285451635225250DRYMH
2023-10-25 00:00:06FORECAST20243211243.95238.96641.4593.14892889037120.358267910.358267912.352.70826791FF11.952240.95262331.328789942511.04333079886170.656486600673771635224240DRYM
2023-10-24 20:00:03FORECAST20243211243.62838.06640.84700.299212760.299212762.212.50921276FF11.628239.62862329.1881295413500.642904010449571635225250DRYMH
2023-10-24 16:00:04FORECAST20243211242.0835.99639.03800.055118140.055118142.282.33511814FF10.08235.0862329.1881295413500.575766679496761635215225DRYL
2023-10-24 12:00:04FORECAST20243211242.00835.18638.5972.01863889196810.07874020.07874022.372.4487402FF10.008233.00862330.562381271190.667286079055610.572572926901921635214220DRYL
2023-10-24 08:00:04FORECAST20243211242.78235.00638.8942.45350912381940.055118140.055118142.422.47511814FF10.782227.78262330.857511462640.811761923057780.606614682118781635214220DRYL
2023-10-24 04:00:06FORECAST20243211242.29633.74638.0212.54140712883360.161417410.161417412.362.52141741FF10.296227.29662330.917124962780.840995140433520.585317322571061635224240DRYM
2023-10-24 00:00:04FORECAST20243211241.39634.84438.122.23526076657870.035433090.035433092.292.32543309FF9.396218.39662330.709435198860.739221825637410.545254619427281635214220DRYL
2023-10-23 20:00:04FORECAST20243211240.74832.2736.5093.14386104393340.035433090.035433092.332.36543309FF8.748215.74862331.325358527851.0416408875430.516096925001331635214220DRYL
2023-10-23 16:00:03FORECAST20243211245.71632.39639.0562.49743116064860.007874020.007874022.282.28787402FF13.716221.71662330.887301587930.826368257648630.726579791828641645214222DRYL
2023-10-23 12:00:03FORECAST20243211240.69434.17837.4361.33274558436020.192913490.192913492.132.32291349FF8.694220.69462330.096228017990.439934290304920.51366105622241635224240DRYM
2023-10-23 08:00:05FORECAST20243211239.8333.60236.7162.75365814859260.181102460.181102462.142.32110246FF7.83216.8362331.061021334970.911628879080430.474679661035011625224236DRYL
2023-10-23 04:00:07FORECAST20243211248.21835.38441.8011.58798985415190.224409570.224409572.162.38440957FF16.218227.21862330.269794409280.524465082654790.812104693215481645224244DRYM
2023-10-23 00:00:05FORECAST20243211236.44634.6135.5283.3020099598044002.272.27FF4.446212.44662331.432419589291.09439315048590.327649538311691625214218DRYL
2023-10-22 20:00:04FORECAST20243211241.25237.18439.2183.0256480889659002.242.24FF9.252208.25262331.245304566661.0022317227410.538790604884471635214220DRYL
2023-10-22 16:00:04FORECAST20243211240.11838.7539.43411.662056975392004.014.01TF8.118237.11862337.031077821483.93047563203180.487664966803551625213213.5WETM
2023-10-22 12:00:04FORECAST20243211234.7932.91833.85412.815234101062003.983.98TF2.79212.7962337.794063164874.32890999740690.263104503538021625213213.5DRYL
2023-10-22 08:00:04FORECAST20243211234.7932.91833.85411.74301982002003.943.94TF2.79224.7962337.084718858413.95839253458010.263104503538021625213213.5DRYL
2023-10-22 04:00:05FORECAST20243211235.2434.68234.96115.934957754028004.334.33TF3.24201.2462339.847023447525.41544796146820.2799869994196162521229WETL