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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, October 9, 2023

[ Sunday, October 8, 2023 | Index | Today | Tuesday, October 10, 2023 ]

DAY 9 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/10/2023 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 57.84°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 39.40°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 48.62°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.758
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 26
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 330

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.69 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.69 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 7.50 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 8.19 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 85
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 351.68 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 89

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 4
D2: 2
D3: 3
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 75.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-10-10 04:00:03OBSERVATION202498957.8400839.3999848.6200300.689999999999940.689999999999947.58.1899999999999TT25.84008329.8400885351.67649212947 00.7579290909046616 44235275WETH
2023-10-10 00:00:02FORECAST202498948.77638.71443.74500.31496080.31496087.57.8149608TT16.776320.77684350.739062811900.463194315115461624225240WETH
2023-10-09 12:00:02FORECAST202498949.96439.8344.89700.346456880.346456887.57.84645688TT17.964321.96484350.739062811900.504554868475071634225245WETH
2023-10-09 08:00:02FORECAST202498947.06637.18442.12500.350393890.350393897.57.85039389TT15.066319.06684350.739062811900.404464148160631624225240WETH
2023-10-09 04:00:05FORECAST202498946.38237.74242.06200.425197080.425197087.57.92519708TT14.382318.38284350.739062811900.381487332720291624225240WETH
2023-10-09 00:00:02FORECAST202498948.6537.443.02500.409449040.409449047.57.90944904TT16.65313.6585351.6764921294700.458823042548821624225240WETH
2023-10-08 20:00:02FORECAST202498948.84837.72443.28600.291338740.291338747.57.79133874TT16.848312.84885351.6764921294700.465694216162481624225240WETH
2023-10-08 16:00:02FORECAST202498947.7537.05842.40400.338582860.338582867.57.83858286TT15.75311.7585351.6764921294700.42777526844521624225240WETH
2023-10-08 12:00:02FORECAST202498947.33635.07841.20700.318897810.318897817.57.81889781TT15.336311.33685351.6764921294700.413630309770881624225240WETH
2023-10-08 08:00:02FORECAST202498951.0836.44643.76300.381889970.381889977.57.88188997TT19.08318.0885351.6764921294700.543372312602041634225245WETH
2023-10-08 04:00:04FORECAST202498950.01836.24843.13300.401575020.401575027.57.90157502TT18.018315.01885351.6764921294700.506437098108291634225245WETH
2023-10-08 00:00:02FORECAST202498949.49637.05843.27700.444882130.444882137.57.94488213TT17.496310.49685351.6764921294700.488242449919131624225240WETH
2023-10-07 20:00:02FORECAST202498949.60436.15842.88100.405512030.405512037.57.90551203TT17.604310.60485351.6764921294700.492006102366451624225240WETH
2023-10-07 16:00:02FORECAST202498948.43434.46641.4500.389763990.389763997.57.88976399TT16.434308.43485351.6764921294700.451341292492251624225240WETH
2023-10-07 12:00:02FORECAST202498951.15236.60843.8800.370078940.370078947.57.87007894TT19.152312.15285351.6764921294700.545866474158211634225245WETH
2023-10-07 08:00:03FORECAST202498949.74835.43842.59300.377952960.377952967.57.87795296TT17.748308.74885351.6764921294700.497025354950951624225240WETH
2023-10-07 04:00:04FORECAST202498949.83837.27443.55600.338582860.338582867.57.83858286TT17.838310.83885351.6764921294700.500162677404061634225245WETH
2023-10-07 00:00:03FORECAST202498950.6336.91443.77200.350393890.350393897.57.85039389TT18.63309.6385351.6764921294700.527748944499371634225245WETH
2023-10-06 20:00:02FORECAST202498948.81234.8841.84600.342519870.342519877.57.84251987TT16.812304.81285351.6764921294700.464444090194371624225240WETH
2023-10-06 16:00:02FORECAST202498948.86635.7842.32300.562992430.562992437.58.06299243TT16.866306.86685351.6764921294700.466319406894731624235260WETH
2023-10-06 12:00:03FORECAST202498949.44235.97842.7100.429134090.429134097.57.92913409TT17.442305.44285351.6764921294700.486360995306241624225240WETH
2023-10-06 08:00:02FORECAST202498949.71236.80643.25900.480315220.480315227.57.98031522TT17.712303.71285351.6764921294700.495770466614381624225240WETH
2023-10-06 04:00:04FORECAST202498950.61238.9344.77100.594488510.594488517.58.09448851TT18.612308.61285351.6764921294700.527122958957891634235267.5WETH
2023-10-06 00:00:03FORECAST202498950.10841.12645.61700.543307380.543307387.58.04330738TT18.108305.10885351.6764921294700.509573808357841634235267.5WETH
2023-10-05 20:00:02FORECAST202498951.00840.06445.53600.51181130.51181137.58.0118113TT19.008305.00885351.6764921294700.540876441204311634235267.5WETH
2023-10-05 16:00:03FORECAST202498950.84641.3646.10300.527559340.527559347.58.02755934TT18.846306.84685351.6764921294700.535254985158861634235267.5WETH
2023-10-05 12:00:02FORECAST202498951.96242.56647.26400.665354690.665354697.58.16535469TT19.962303.96285351.6764921294700.573778494839361634235267.5WETH
2023-10-05 08:00:03FORECAST202498951.76441.5446.65200.582677480.582677487.58.08267748TT19.764303.76485351.6764921294700.56698410035891634235267.5WETH
2023-10-05 04:00:04FORECAST202498951.6241.37846.49900.779527980.779527987.58.27952798TT19.62301.6285351.6764921294700.56203013707041634235267.5WETH
2023-10-05 00:00:03FORECAST202498948.81239.86644.33901.078740741.078740747.58.57874074TT16.812308.81285351.6764921294700.464444090194371624245280WETH
2023-10-04 20:00:02FORECAST202498948.95639.70444.3301.086614761.086614767.58.58661476TT16.956305.95685351.6764921294700.469446576611081624245280WETH
2023-10-04 16:00:03FORECAST202498948.23640.31644.27601.1811031.1811037.58.681103TT16.236301.23685351.6764921294700.444498106874351624245280WETH
2023-10-04 12:00:03FORECAST202498948.07437.63442.85401.118110841.118110847.58.61811084TT16.074303.07485351.6764921294700.438911321778651624245280WETH
2023-10-04 08:00:03FORECAST202498947.37235.22241.29701.027559611.027559617.58.52755961TT15.372301.37285351.6764921294700.414856144827381624245280WETH
2023-10-04 04:00:06FORECAST202498949.29839.66844.48300.559055420.559055427.58.05905542TT17.298305.29885351.6764921294700.481345380573111624235260WETH
2023-10-04 00:00:03FORECAST202498947.33640.78444.0600.566929440.566929447.267.82692944TT15.336307.33685351.6764921294700.413630309770881624235260WETH
2023-10-03 20:00:03FORECAST202498948.8342.81845.82400.610236550.610236557.267.87023655TT16.83312.8385351.6764921294700.465069110084161624235260WETH
2023-10-03 16:00:04FORECAST202498948.39841.6345.01400.618110570.618110577.267.87811057TT16.398313.39885351.6764921294700.450095939947551624235260WETH
2023-10-03 12:00:03FORECAST202498950.39641.12645.76101.169291971.169291977.268.42929197TT18.396307.39685351.6764921294700.519606348309611634245290WETH
2023-10-03 08:00:04FORECAST202498950.30639.27244.78901.342520411.342520417.268.60252041TT18.306308.30685351.6764921294700.516472214317921634245290WETH
2023-10-03 04:00:07FORECAST202498946.92240.143.51100.444882130.444882137.287.72488213TT14.922299.92285351.6764921294700.399596539944761624225240WETH
2023-10-03 00:00:03FORECAST202498948.18241.23444.70801.149606921.149606926.527.66960692TT16.182298.18285351.6764921294700.442634563402981624245280WETH
2023-10-02 20:00:04FORECAST202498948.2941.945.09501.307087321.307087326.587.88708732TT16.29299.2985351.6764921294700.446362877953471624245280WETH
2023-10-02 16:00:04FORECAST202498947.80440.04643.92501.350394431.350394436.597.94039443TT15.804301.80485351.6764921294700.429627535287271624245280WETH
2023-10-02 15:53:56FORECAST202498947.80440.04643.92501.350394431.350394436.597.94039443TT15.804301.80485351.6764921294700.429627535287271624245280WETH
2023-10-02 15:52:45FORECAST202498947.80440.04643.92501.350394431.350394436.597.94039443TT15.804301.80485351.6764921294700.429627535287271624245280WETH
2023-10-02 12:00:03FORECAST202498950.95442.00846.48100.448819140.448819146.587.02881914TT18.954296.95485351.6764921294700.539003474319471634225245WETH
2023-10-02 08:00:04FORECAST202498950.66642.13446.400.456693160.456693166.817.26669316TT18.666301.66685351.6764921294700.529000708441481634225245WETH
2023-10-02 04:00:06FORECAST202498950.52241.82846.17500.877953230.877953236.857.72795323TT18.522302.52285351.6764921294700.523992057206821634235267.5WETH
2023-10-02 00:00:04FORECAST202498949.42438.60644.01500.964567450.964567456.687.64456745TT17.424298.42485351.6764921294700.485733909156261624235260WETH
2023-10-01 20:00:04FORECAST202498948.57838.17443.37600.885827250.885827256.517.39582725TT16.578294.57885351.6764921294700.456327371798581624235260WETH
2023-10-01 16:00:04FORECAST202498950.64840.15445.40100.523622330.523622336.286.80362233TT18.648306.64885351.6764921294700.528374861507441634235267.5WETH
2023-10-01 12:00:05FORECAST202498950.4541.21645.83300.488189240.488189246.216.69818924TT18.45308.4585351.6764921294700.52148625953031634225245WETH
2023-10-01 08:00:03FORECAST202498950.61240.0145.31100.503937280.503937286.156.65393728TT18.612309.61285351.6764921294700.527122958957891634235267.5WETH
2023-10-01 04:00:05FORECAST202498952.17843.21447.69600.188976480.188976486.096.27897648TF20.178310.17885351.6764921294700.58116560131451634225245WETMH
2023-10-01 00:00:04FORECAST202498953.0641.64847.35400.338582860.338582866.076.40858286TF21.06310.0685351.6764921294700.611007313955741634225245WETMH
2023-09-30 20:00:05FORECAST202498951.94442.09847.02100.338582860.338582866.126.45858286TF19.944300.94485351.6764921294700.573161695072481634225245WETMH
2023-09-30 16:00:04FORECAST202498961.39448.59654.99500.15748040.15748046.176.3274804TF29.394321.39485351.6764921294700.843833022250081644225250WETMH
2023-09-30 12:00:04FORECAST202498960.38647.35453.870006.126.12TF28.386325.38685351.6764921294700.82178767625621644215225WETMH
2023-09-30 08:00:04FORECAST202498963.98645.1454.5630006.226.22TF31.986321.98685351.6764921294700.891971560578451654215227.5WETMH
2023-09-30 04:00:06FORECAST202498961.64645.17653.41100.153543390.153543396.086.23354339TF29.646330.64685351.6764921294700.849051593469731654225255WETMH
2023-09-30 00:00:04FORECAST202498950.91846.6748.7940005.975.97TF18.918317.91885351.6764921294700.537754346304311634215222.5WETMH
2023-09-29 20:00:03FORECAST202498952.95249.76651.35900066TF20.952310.95285351.6764921294700.607384413800091634215222.5WETMH
2023-09-29 16:00:04FORECAST202498949.87447.1248.4970006.096.09TF17.874297.87485351.6764921294700.501417614433811634215222.5WETMH
2023-09-29 12:00:05FORECAST202498949.49647.19248.3440006.216.21TF17.496290.49685351.6764921294700.488242449919131624215220WETMH
2023-09-29 08:00:04FORECAST202498949.33445.12247.2280006.156.15TF17.334294.33485351.6764921294700.482599038528951624215220WETMH
2023-09-29 04:00:08FORECAST202498955.63452.50254.0680006.046.04TF23.634314.63485351.6764921294700.693875755421881634215222.5WETMH