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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, October 7, 2023

[ Friday, October 6, 2023 | Index | Today | Sunday, October 8, 2023 ]

DAY 7 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/08/2023 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 70.15°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 53.97°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 62.06°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.938
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 38
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 299

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 7.74 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.74 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 87
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 353.54 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 87

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 4
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 55.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-10-08 04:00:04OBSERVATION202478770.1499253.9700862.060007.747.74TT38.14992299.1499287353.54069783457 00.9378938180731216 54215155WETH
2023-10-08 00:00:01FORECAST202478762.52846.27454.4010007.747.74TT30.528291.52886352.6103659753100.816758391782471644215225WETH
2023-10-07 12:00:01FORECAST202478762.649.22655.9130007.747.74TT30.6291.686352.6103659753100.818342270104291644215225WETH
2023-10-07 08:00:02FORECAST202478762.02448.27255.1480007.747.74TT30.024291.02486352.6103659753100.805432093921811644215225WETH
2023-10-07 04:00:04FORECAST202478763.01448.77655.8950007.747.74TT31.014292.01486352.6103659753100.827282896662311644215225WETH
2023-10-07 00:00:02FORECAST202478765.19250.66657.9290007.747.74TT33.192290.19287353.5406978345700.869619592921611654215227.5WETH
2023-10-06 20:00:02FORECAST202478763.9548.16456.0570007.747.74TT31.95287.9587353.5406978345700.846444920186931644215225WETH
2023-10-06 16:00:02FORECAST202478764.88648.61456.750007.747.74TT32.886288.88687353.5406978345700.864147229523571654215227.5WETH
2023-10-06 12:00:03FORECAST202478763.91450.84657.380007.747.74TT31.914287.91487353.5406978345700.845734938413061644215225WETH
2023-10-06 08:00:02FORECAST202478763.37451.69257.5330007.747.74TT31.374287.37487353.5406978345700.834825765945121644215225WETH
2023-10-06 04:00:04FORECAST202478764.68851.22457.9560007.747.74TT32.688288.68887353.5406978345700.860523856241071654215227.5WETH
2023-10-06 00:00:03FORECAST202478765.0350.61257.8210007.747.74TT33.03286.0387353.5406978345700.86674169362291654215227.5WETH
2023-10-05 20:00:01FORECAST202478765.13852.37658.7570007.747.74TT33.138285.13887353.5406978345700.868665094607911654215227.5WETH
2023-10-05 16:00:03FORECAST202478765.0352.48458.7570007.747.74TT33.03286.0387353.5406978345700.86674169362291654215227.5WETH
2023-10-05 12:00:02FORECAST202478764.1352.10658.1180007.747.74TT32.13284.1387353.5406978345700.849962413316321654215227.5WETH
2023-10-05 08:00:03FORECAST202478764.05850.73857.3980007.747.74TT32.058284.05887353.5406978345700.848561897922961644215225WETH
2023-10-05 04:00:03FORECAST202478763.37450.4556.9120007.747.74TT31.374282.37487353.5406978345700.834825765945121644215225WETH
2023-10-05 00:00:03FORECAST202478764.02251.3557.6860007.747.74TT32.022292.02287353.5406978345700.847858399647511644215225WETH
2023-10-04 20:00:02FORECAST202478763.2351.74657.4880007.747.74TT31.23289.2387353.5406978345700.83183451998631644215225WETH
2023-10-04 16:00:03FORECAST202478762.2450.10856.1740007.747.74TT30.24286.2487353.5406978345700.810337346114361644215225WETH
2023-10-04 12:00:02FORECAST202478762.90650.46856.6870007.747.74TT30.906287.90687353.5406978345700.824977982293311644215225WETH
2023-10-04 08:00:03FORECAST202478762.49250.25256.3720007.747.74TT30.492287.49287353.5406978345700.815963240305211644215225WETH
2023-10-04 04:00:05FORECAST202478763.08651.33257.2090007.747.74TT31.086289.08687353.5406978345700.828808732186471644215225WETH
2023-10-04 00:00:03FORECAST202478761.80850.75656.2820007.57.5TT29.808291.80887353.5406978345700.8004505760441644215225WETH
2023-10-03 20:00:02FORECAST202478762.13251.51256.8220007.57.5TT30.132296.13287353.5406978345700.807894278490031644215225WETH
2023-10-03 16:00:03FORECAST202478763.12250.59456.8580007.57.5TT31.122297.12287353.5406978345700.829568415515021644215225WETH
2023-10-03 12:00:02FORECAST202478761.98848.5655.2740007.57.5TT29.988291.98887353.5406978345700.804607126006631644215225WETH
2023-10-03 08:00:03FORECAST202478762.5148.50655.5080007.57.5TT30.51292.5187353.5406978345700.816361083600611644215225WETH
2023-10-03 04:00:07FORECAST202478761.28648.3854.8330007.527.52TT29.286289.28687353.5406978345700.788099833731071644215225WETH
2023-10-03 00:00:03FORECAST202478761.17849.4655.3190006.766.76TT29.178285.17887353.5406978345700.785489891276471644215225WETH
2023-10-02 20:00:03FORECAST202478761.64649.13655.3910006.826.82TT29.646284.64687353.5406978345700.796664650136561644215225WETH
2023-10-02 16:00:04FORECAST202478761.59249.38855.490006.836.83TT29.592288.59287353.5406978345700.795393231246281644215225WETH
2023-10-02 15:53:56FORECAST202478761.59249.38855.490006.836.83TT29.592288.59287353.5406978345700.795393231246281644215225WETH
2023-10-02 15:52:45FORECAST202478761.59249.38855.490006.836.83TT29.592288.59287353.5406978345700.795393231246281644215225WETH
2023-10-02 12:00:03FORECAST202478759.84646.65253.2490006.826.82TT27.846283.84687353.5406978345700.751802594829681644215225WETH
2023-10-02 08:00:04FORECAST202478761.03449.2855.1570007.057.05TT29.034288.03487353.5406978345700.781981113964361644215225WETH
2023-10-02 04:00:05FORECAST202478760.87249.9155.3910007.097.09TT28.872289.87287353.5406978345700.777994544326961644215225WETH
2023-10-02 00:00:03FORECAST202478760.54849.29854.9230006.926.92TT28.548285.54887353.5406978345700.769898053011131644215225WETH
2023-10-01 20:00:03FORECAST202478759.30648.4753.8880006.756.75TT27.306285.30687353.5406978345700.737383688723931644215225WETH
2023-10-01 16:00:04FORECAST202478761.4349.85655.6430006.526.52TF29.43291.4387353.5406978345700.791550756540741644215225WETMH
2023-10-01 12:00:04FORECAST202478760.83648.79454.8150006.456.45TF28.836289.83687353.5406978345700.777103031560261644215225WETMH
2023-10-01 08:00:03FORECAST202478761.08849.71255.40006.396.39TF29.088290.08887353.5406978345700.78330075967541644215225WETMH
2023-10-01 04:00:05FORECAST202478761.37649.60455.490006.336.33TF29.376288.37687353.5406978345700.790260553927171644215225WETMH
2023-10-01 00:00:04FORECAST202478760.45848.39854.4280006.316.31TF28.458286.45887353.5406978345700.767620105053321644215225WETMH
2023-09-30 20:00:04FORECAST202478760.15246.453.2760006.366.36TF28.152280.15287353.5406978345700.759782184368451644215225WETMH
2023-09-30 16:00:03FORECAST202478762.4247.354.860006.416.41TF30.42288.4287353.5406978345700.814366519388471644215225WETMH
2023-09-30 12:00:04FORECAST202478762.83448.70455.7690006.366.36TF30.834292.83487353.5406978345700.823430608225231644215225WETMH
2023-09-30 08:00:04FORECAST202478760.06247.19253.6270006.466.46TF28.062287.06287353.5406978345700.757449837039871644215225WETMH
2023-09-30 04:00:05FORECAST202478763.15850.25256.7050006.326.32TF31.158298.15887353.5406978345700.830325941663311644215225WETMH
2023-09-30 00:00:04FORECAST202478762.31249.53255.9220006.216.21TF30.312297.31287353.5406978345700.811955414371351644215225WETMH
2023-09-29 20:00:03FORECAST202478761.98852.84457.4160006.246.24TF29.988288.98887353.5406978345700.804607126006631644215225WETMH
2023-09-29 16:00:04FORECAST202478759.86448.05653.960006.336.33TF27.864277.86487353.5406978345700.752275857281591644215225WETMH
2023-09-29 12:00:05FORECAST202478756.15644.67250.4140006.456.45TF24.156271.15687353.5406978345700.645636628477151634215222.5WETMH
2023-09-29 08:00:04FORECAST202478756.15644.58250.3690006.396.39TF24.156273.15687353.5406978345700.645636628477151634215222.5WETMH
2023-09-29 04:00:08FORECAST202478758.1945.35651.7730006.286.28TF26.19282.1987353.5406978345700.706286322555251644215225WETMH
2023-09-29 00:00:04FORECAST202478759.34246.86853.105000.075.885.95TF27.342286.34287353.5406978345700.73835809459551644215225WETMH
2023-09-28 20:00:03FORECAST202478761.21448.57854.896000.095.996.08TF29.214284.21487353.5406978345700.786361937960491644215225WETMH
2023-09-28 16:00:04FORECAST202478763.89651.06257.4790006.276.27TF31.896295.89687353.5406978345700.845379136904921644215225WETMH
2023-09-28 12:00:03FORECAST202478765.15645.19455.1750006.446.44TF33.156287.15687353.5406978345700.868983793793761654215227.5WETMH
2023-09-28 08:00:04FORECAST202478763.48244.7854.1310006.466.46TF31.482279.48287353.5406978345700.837046515049211644215225WETMH
2023-09-28 04:00:09FORECAST202478764.18435.09649.64000.56.246.74TT32.184266.18487353.5406978345700.851007130466291654235282.5WETH
2023-09-28 00:00:03FORECAST202478742.27834.77238.525000.515.956.46TF10.278244.27887353.5406978345700.2178331816851614235252.5WETM
2023-09-27 20:00:04FORECAST202478750.25235.07842.665000.485.86.28TF18.252246.25287353.5406978345700.453443527272341624225240WETMH
2023-09-27 16:00:06FORECAST202478751.54839.48845.5180005.925.92TF19.548247.54887353.5406978345700.496294542008571624215220WETMH
2023-09-27 12:00:04FORECAST202478733.90832.28833.098000.036.36.33TF1.908224.90887353.5406978345700.06999663855261614215217.5WETM
2023-09-27 08:00:04FORECAST202478733.90832.28833.098000.046.076.11TF1.908206.90887353.5406978345700.06999663855261614215217.5WETM
2023-09-27 04:00:06FORECAST202478723.1822.44222.811000.676.527.19TT-8.82192.1887353.5406978345700.00885776508795711614135245WETL