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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, October 6, 2023

[ Thursday, October 5, 2023 | Index | Today | Saturday, October 7, 2023 ]

DAY 6 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/07/2023 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 67.36°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 51.21°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 59.28°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.899
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 35
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 273

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 7.79 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.79 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 88
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 354.47 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 86

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 4
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 27.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-10-07 04:00:04OBSERVATION202468667.3599251.2099659.284940007.797.79TT35.35992273.3599288354.46750114127 00.8988885307850616 54215227.5WETH
2023-10-07 00:00:02FORECAST202468663.35650.34256.8490007.797.79TT31.356269.35687353.5406978345700.819376809920261644215225WETH
2023-10-06 12:00:02FORECAST202468661.98848.79455.3910007.797.79TT29.988267.98887353.5406978345700.785032202389431644215225WETH
2023-10-06 08:00:02FORECAST202468661.7948.95655.3730007.797.79TT29.79267.7987353.5406978345700.779765467654221644215225WETH
2023-10-06 04:00:04FORECAST202468662.47448.57855.5260007.797.79TT30.474268.47487353.5406978345700.797645743711621644215225WETH
2023-10-06 00:00:02FORECAST202468664.41848.54256.480007.797.79TT32.418265.41888354.4675011412700.843521764828821644215225WETH
2023-10-05 20:00:01FORECAST202468664.2249.3756.7950007.797.79TT32.22264.2288354.4675011412700.839188807685851644215225WETH
2023-10-05 16:00:02FORECAST202468664.77849.9157.3440007.797.79TT32.778264.77888354.4675011412700.851201625423811654215227.5WETH
2023-10-05 12:00:01FORECAST202468664.09451.22457.6590007.797.79TT32.094264.09488354.4675011412700.83639117618971644215225WETH
2023-10-05 08:00:02FORECAST202468663.8649.74856.8040007.797.79TT31.86263.8688354.4675011412700.831112472249271644215225WETH
2023-10-05 04:00:03FORECAST202468662.99649.58656.2910007.797.79TT30.996262.99688354.4675011412700.810689428321551644215225WETH
2023-10-05 00:00:03FORECAST202468663.7750.57657.1730007.797.79TT31.77271.7788354.4675011412700.829053459687811644215225WETH
2023-10-04 20:00:01FORECAST202468662.92450.2756.5970007.797.79TT30.924269.92488354.4675011412700.808921645048341644215225WETH
2023-10-04 16:00:03FORECAST202468661.53848.9255.2290007.797.79TT29.538267.53888354.4675011412700.772956731757131644215225WETH
2023-10-04 12:00:02FORECAST202468662.83449.65856.2460007.797.79TT30.834268.83488354.4675011412700.806697765228911644215225WETH
2023-10-04 08:00:03FORECAST202468662.5149.35255.9310007.797.79TT30.51268.5188354.4675011412700.798562168972221644215225WETH
2023-10-04 04:00:05FORECAST202468662.70849.94656.3270007.797.79TT30.708269.70888354.4675011412700.803557983561291644215225WETH
2023-10-04 00:00:03FORECAST202468661.6149.15455.3820007.557.55TT29.61273.6188354.4675011412700.77491408173141644215225WETH
2023-10-03 20:00:02FORECAST202468662.72649.42456.0750007.557.55TT30.726277.72688354.4675011412700.804008402602551644215225WETH
2023-10-03 16:00:03FORECAST202468663.03249.2856.1560007.557.55TT31.032278.03288354.4675011412700.811569540436321644215225WETH
2023-10-03 12:00:02FORECAST202468661.62847.46254.5450007.557.55TT29.628273.62888354.4675011412700.77540192371891644215225WETH
2023-10-03 08:00:03FORECAST202468661.12447.3954.2570007.557.55TT29.124274.12488354.4675011412700.761517915301991644215225WETH
2023-10-03 04:00:06FORECAST202468659.70246.92253.3120007.577.57TT27.702271.70288354.4675011412700.719937301235951644215225WETH
2023-10-03 00:00:03FORECAST202468658.87448.16453.5190006.816.81TT26.874267.87488354.4675011412700.694208688356581634215222.5WETH
2023-10-02 20:00:03FORECAST202468659.2747.49853.3840006.876.87TT27.27267.2788354.4675011412700.706644415778651644215225WETH
2023-10-02 16:00:03FORECAST202468660.22448.27254.2480006.886.88TT28.224271.22488354.4675011412700.735599906917221644215225WETH
2023-10-02 15:53:56FORECAST202468660.22448.27254.2480006.886.88TT28.224271.22488354.4675011412700.735599906917221644215225WETH
2023-10-02 15:52:45FORECAST202468660.22448.27254.2480006.886.88TT28.224271.22488354.4675011412700.735599906917221644215225WETH
2023-10-02 12:00:02FORECAST202468658.98245.5952.2860006.876.87TT26.982267.98288354.4675011412700.697623346847731634215222.5WETH
2023-10-02 08:00:03FORECAST202468659.6348.9254.2750007.17.1TT27.63270.6388354.4675011412700.71774220124681644215225WETH
2023-10-02 04:00:05FORECAST202468660.31448.2954.3020007.147.14TT28.314273.31488354.4675011412700.738254645068861644215225WETH
2023-10-02 00:00:03FORECAST202468660.60247.98454.2930006.976.97TT28.602268.60288354.4675011412700.746657080289161644215225WETH
2023-10-01 20:00:03FORECAST202468660.2647.62453.9420006.86.8TT28.26270.2688354.4675011412700.736663442415411644215225WETH
2023-10-01 16:00:03FORECAST202468661.37648.1154.7430006.576.57TF29.376274.37688354.4675011412700.768517854794691644215225WETMH
2023-10-01 12:00:04FORECAST202468661.14248.45254.7970006.56.5TF29.142273.14288354.4675011412700.762021717591231644215225WETMH
2023-10-01 08:00:02FORECAST202468661.46649.0155.2380006.446.44TF29.466273.46688354.4675011412700.770989837622951644215225WETMH
2023-10-01 04:00:04FORECAST202468660.5349.56855.0490006.386.38TF28.53270.5388354.4675011412700.74456982791291644215225WETMH
2023-10-01 00:00:03FORECAST202468658.83847.40853.1230006.366.36TF26.838269.83888354.4675011412700.693066689559261634215222.5WETMH
2023-09-30 20:00:04FORECAST202468657.75844.97851.3680006.416.41TF25.758263.75888354.4675011412700.65797721380631634215222.5WETMH
2023-09-30 16:00:03FORECAST202468658.22646.47252.3490006.466.46TF26.226270.22688354.4675011412700.673373403351161634215222.5WETMH
2023-09-30 12:00:03FORECAST202468658.40647.1252.7630006.416.41TF26.406274.40688354.4675011412700.67921909374911634215222.5WETMH
2023-09-30 08:00:04FORECAST202468657.54247.28252.4120006.516.51TF25.542270.54288354.4675011412700.650779779289731634215222.5WETMH
2023-09-30 04:00:05FORECAST202468659.57649.87454.7250006.376.37TF27.576278.57688354.4675011412700.716090467562511644215225WETMH
2023-09-30 00:00:03FORECAST202468661.93448.6555.2920006.266.26TF29.934278.93488354.4675011412700.783603107551761644215225WETMH
2023-09-29 20:00:03FORECAST202468661.6148.97455.2920006.296.29TF29.61270.6188354.4675011412700.77491408173141644215225WETMH
2023-09-29 16:00:04FORECAST202468660.09846.09453.0960006.386.38TF28.098262.09888354.4675011412700.731860416945611644215225WETMH
2023-09-29 12:00:04FORECAST202468655.86845.69850.7830006.56.5TF23.868258.86888354.4675011412700.593334494382671634215222.5WETMH
2023-09-29 08:00:04FORECAST202468656.04845.24850.6480006.446.44TF24.048261.04888354.4675011412700.599633757616971634215222.5WETMH
2023-09-29 04:00:07FORECAST202468657.21845.87851.5480006.336.33TF25.218268.21888354.4675011412700.63988196735111634215222.5WETMH
2023-09-29 00:00:04FORECAST202468659.23447.10253.168000.075.936TF27.234271.23488354.4675011412700.705523619092251644215225WETMH
2023-09-28 20:00:03FORECAST202468659.07247.73253.402000.16.036.13TF27.072267.07288354.4675011412700.700455772564661644225250WETMH
2023-09-28 16:00:04FORECAST202468661.5249.4655.49000.036.296.32TF29.52275.5288354.4675011412700.772465901563821644215225WETMH
2023-09-28 12:00:03FORECAST202468657.59643.80850.702000.136.366.49TF25.596265.59688354.4675011412700.652584348904661634225245WETMH
2023-09-28 08:00:04FORECAST202468657.23642.3549.793000.116.46.51TF25.236260.23688354.4675011412700.640490489320021634225245WETMH
2023-09-28 04:00:08FORECAST202468647.17431.17239.173000.576.226.79TT15.174246.17488354.4675011412700.291286145622621624235260WETH
2023-09-28 00:00:03FORECAST202468647.26432.28839.776000.555.966.51TT15.264246.26488354.4675011412700.294082684856791624235260WETH
2023-09-27 20:00:04FORECAST202468646.68833.6240.154000.525.816.33TF14.688239.68888354.4675011412700.276403369496841624235260WETMH
2023-09-27 16:00:06FORECAST202468652.6131.9142.26000.075.95.97TF20.61239.6188354.4675011412700.476745614615461624215220WETMH
2023-09-27 12:00:04FORECAST202468644.07829.28236.68000.256.136.38TF12.078235.07888354.4675011412700.203410236357341614225235WETM
2023-09-27 08:00:04FORECAST202468647.15626.94237.049000.265.96.16TF15.156217.15688354.4675011412700.290728329191991624225240WETM
2023-09-27 04:00:06FORECAST202468638.33623.70231.01900.31496080.79496086.457.2449608TT6.336213.33688354.4675011412700.0886663489998471614235252.5WETL
2023-09-27 00:00:04FORECAST202468639.72230.3835.05100.047244120.247244126.26.44724412TF7.722230.72288354.4675011412700.110564734764211614225235WETM
2023-09-26 20:00:05FORECAST202468638.7531.33435.04200.047244120.237244126.426.65724412TT6.75221.7588354.4675011412700.0948403423423021614225235WETH
2023-09-26 16:00:04FORECAST202468635.4227.98631.703001.115.326.43TT3.42216.4288354.4675011412700.0533441729967731614245270WETL
2023-09-26 12:00:04FORECAST202468627.64423.93625.79001.845.27.04TT-4.356211.64488354.4675011412700.0101797580241171614255287.5WETL
2023-09-26 08:00:05FORECAST202468632.88229.87631.379001.745.096.83TT0.882229.88288354.4675011412700.0326243519034731614255287.5WETL
2023-09-26 04:00:06FORECAST202468635.38434.37634.88001.525.326.84TT3.384223.38488354.4675011412700.0529906315100891614255287.5WETH