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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, October 4, 2023

[ Tuesday, October 3, 2023 | Index | Today | Thursday, October 5, 2023 ]

DAY 4 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/05/2023 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 49.08°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 38.12°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 43.60°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.441
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 17
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 236

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.74 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.05 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.79 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 90
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 356.31 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 84

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 4
D2: 2
D3: 5
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 100.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-10-05 04:00:03OBSERVATION202448449.0800238.1243.60001001.746.057.79TT17.08002236.0800290356.31057557841 00.4408105550489816 242552100WETH
2023-10-05 00:00:02FORECAST202448455.584148.29001.746.057.79TT23.58242.5889355.3907892784500.6708437492388616342552112.5WETH
2023-10-04 12:00:01FORECAST202448454.98640.3747.678001.746.057.79TT22.986241.98689355.3907892784500.6510733912174516342552112.5WETH
2023-10-04 08:00:02FORECAST202448455.16639.72247.444001.746.057.79TT23.166242.16689355.3907892784500.6571108786837716342552112.5WETH
2023-10-04 04:00:05FORECAST202448455.56240.33447.948001.746.057.79TT23.562242.56289355.3907892784500.6702512676677316342552112.5WETH
2023-10-04 00:00:02FORECAST202448455.74239.6547.696001.56.057.55TT23.742247.74290356.3105755784100.676156648756821634245290WETH
2023-10-03 20:00:01FORECAST202448456.80441.07248.938001.56.057.55TT24.804250.80490356.3105755784100.7100634284448416442452100WETH
2023-10-03 16:00:02FORECAST202448457.18241.34249.262001.56.057.55TT25.182251.18290356.3105755784100.7217175269623816442452100WETH
2023-10-03 12:00:02FORECAST202448455.440.04647.723001.56.057.55TT23.4249.490356.3105755784100.664899862551171634245290WETH
2023-10-03 08:00:02FORECAST202448455.59840.9148.254001.56.057.55TT23.598249.59890356.3105755784100.671435802308351634245290WETH
2023-10-03 04:00:06FORECAST202448455.50841.66648.587001.526.057.57TT23.508249.50890356.3105755784100.6684712647204716342552112.5WETH
2023-10-03 00:00:02FORECAST202448454.64441.59448.119000.766.056.81TT22.644247.64490356.3105755784100.639497325638081634235267.5WETH
2023-10-02 20:00:02FORECAST202448453.85241.07247.462000.826.056.87TT21.852246.85290356.3105755784100.612210299187251634235267.5WETH
2023-10-02 16:00:03FORECAST202448455.25641.70248.479000.836.056.88TT23.256249.25690356.3105755784100.660114769035071634235267.5WETH
2023-10-02 15:53:56FORECAST202448455.25641.70248.479000.836.056.88TT23.256249.25690356.3105755784100.660114769035071634235267.5WETH
2023-10-02 15:52:45FORECAST202448455.25641.70248.479000.836.056.88TT23.256249.25690356.3105755784100.660114769035071634235267.5WETH
2023-10-02 12:00:02FORECAST202448455.09439.8347.462000.826.056.87TT23.094248.09490356.3105755784100.654700588060451634235267.5WETH
2023-10-02 08:00:03FORECAST202448455.70642.3549.028001.056.057.1TT23.706249.70690356.3105755784100.674979051143791634245290WETH
2023-10-02 04:00:04FORECAST202448456.15642.51249.334001.096.057.14TT24.156251.15690356.3105755784100.689570100813431634245290WETH
2023-10-02 00:00:03FORECAST202448457.2942.42249.856000.926.056.97TT25.29246.2990356.3105755784100.72500487380011644235275WETH
2023-10-01 20:00:03FORECAST202448456.91242.02649.469000.756.056.8TT24.912247.91290356.3105755784100.713416412509481644235275WETH
2023-10-01 16:00:03FORECAST202448457.95642.1750.063000.526.056.57TT25.956249.95690356.3105755784100.744844625453031644235275WETH
2023-10-01 12:00:03FORECAST202448457.86641.3649.613000.456.056.5TT25.866248.86690356.3105755784100.742207934254281644225250WETH
2023-10-01 08:00:02FORECAST202448457.90241.28849.595000.396.056.44TF25.902248.90290356.3105755784100.743264302642921644225250WETMH
2023-10-01 04:00:04FORECAST202448455.442.06248.731000.336.056.38TF23.4247.490356.3105755784100.664899862551171634225245WETMH
2023-10-01 00:00:03FORECAST202448456.91241.34249.127000.316.056.36TF24.912249.91290356.3105755784100.713416412509481644225250WETMH
2023-09-30 20:00:03FORECAST202448455.20240.96448.083000.366.056.41TF23.202246.20290356.3105755784100.658313639280021634225245WETMH
2023-09-30 16:00:03FORECAST202448455.86839.2947.579000.416.056.46TF23.868250.86890356.3105755784100.680264320436041634225245WETMH
2023-09-30 12:00:03FORECAST202448456.82242.849.811000.366.056.41TF24.822252.82290356.3105755784100.71062353344111644225250WETMH
2023-09-30 08:00:03FORECAST202448456.13843.03449.586000.466.056.51TT24.138251.13890356.3105755784100.688991946247631634225245WETH
2023-09-30 04:00:04FORECAST202448457.68645.1451.413000.326.056.37TF25.686256.68690356.3105755784100.736892499644731644225250WETMH
2023-09-30 00:00:03FORECAST202448456.15644.47450.315000.216.056.26TF24.156258.15690356.3105755784100.689570100813431634225245WETMH
2023-09-29 20:00:02FORECAST202448456.76843.5250.144000.246.056.29TF24.768250.76890356.3105755784100.708941697543311644225250WETMH
2023-09-29 16:00:03FORECAST202448454.24841.6347.939000.336.056.38TF22.248244.24890356.3105755784100.625932663341381634225245WETMH
2023-09-29 12:00:04FORECAST202448454.87842.78248.83000.456.056.5TT22.878244.87890356.3105755784100.647432344138311634225245WETH
2023-09-29 08:00:03FORECAST202448454.57242.63848.605000.386.066.44TF22.572246.57290356.3105755784100.637043462450581634225245WETMH
2023-09-29 04:00:07FORECAST202448455.95842.63849.298000.286.056.33TF23.958251.95890356.3105755784100.683184942202461634225245WETMH
2023-09-29 00:00:03FORECAST202448450.10841.23445.671000.225.715.93TF18.108252.10890356.3105755784100.477900941898951624225240WETMH
2023-09-28 20:00:03FORECAST202448449.8240.4645.1400.007874020.237874025.86.03787402TF17.82247.8290356.3105755784100.467476316251781624225240WETMH
2023-09-28 16:00:04FORECAST202448452.14242.85447.49800.031496080.521496085.86.32149608TF20.142253.14290356.3105755784100.551544424473231634235267.5WETMH
2023-09-28 12:00:03FORECAST202448451.81840.9146.36400.125984320.685984325.86.48598432TT19.818250.81890356.3105755784100.539866489610051634235267.5WETH
2023-09-28 08:00:04FORECAST202448451.24237.92244.58200.114173290.734173295.786.51417329TT19.242247.24290356.3105755784100.519027009566451634235267.5WETH
2023-09-28 04:00:08FORECAST202448449.47841.2745.37400.074803190.504803195.796.29480319TF17.478255.47890356.3105755784100.455126559305351624235260WETMH
2023-09-28 00:00:03FORECAST202448449.85637.47243.66400.03937010.24937015.755.9993701TF17.856252.85690356.3105755784100.468778322704181624225240WETMH
2023-09-27 20:00:03FORECAST202448447.51636.9542.23300.03937010.21937015.635.8493701TF15.516246.51690356.3105755784100.385465149439151624225240WETMH
2023-09-27 16:00:05FORECAST202448443.80836.3240.06400.074803190.264803195.715.97480319TF11.808243.80890356.3105755784100.264868347556211624225240WETMH
2023-09-27 12:00:04FORECAST202448443.8833.47638.67800.216535550.696535555.656.34653555TF11.88252.8890356.3105755784100.267017318438561624235260WETM
2023-09-27 08:00:03FORECAST202448441.37831.11836.24800.220472560.750472565.376.12047256TF9.378235.37890356.3105755784100.197810631100041614235252.5WETM
2023-09-27 04:00:06FORECAST202448440.17232.39636.28400.11811031.33811035.236.5681103TT8.172236.17290356.3105755784100.168727023861451614245270WETH
2023-09-27 00:00:04FORECAST202448444.34835.07839.713001.065.146.2TT12.348248.34890356.3105755784100.281196520210641624245280WETH
2023-09-26 20:00:04FORECAST202448444.7835.56440.172001.155.276.42TT12.78240.7890356.3105755784100.294599197511751624245280WETH
2023-09-26 16:00:04FORECAST202448440.02834.86237.44500.704724790.994724795.036.02472479TF8.028240.02890356.3105755784100.165447437979441614245270WETM
2023-09-26 12:00:03FORECAST202448439.57832.936.23900.937008381.347008384.796.13700838TT7.578241.57890356.3105755784100.155465787906771614245270WETH
2023-09-26 08:00:04FORECAST202448441.6334.19637.91300.929134361.319134364.76.01913436TF9.63252.6390356.3105755784100.204249052908411614245270WETM
2023-09-26 04:00:05FORECAST202448440.71235.25837.98500.909449311.329449314.96.22944931TT8.712245.71290356.3105755784100.181393532644061614245270WETH
2023-09-26 00:00:04FORECAST202448448.0232.66640.343000.344.624.96TF16.02250.0290356.3105755784100.403104108397991624225240WETMH
2023-09-25 20:00:03FORECAST202448445.80631.7338.768000.354.835.18TF13.806241.80690356.3105755784100.327552697780961624225240WETM
2023-09-25 16:00:04FORECAST202448451.04436.62643.83500.15748040.37748044.685.0574804TF19.044261.04490356.3105755784100.511848508364691634225245WETMH
2023-09-25 12:00:04FORECAST202448451.832.77442.28700.311023790.681023795.025.70102379TF19.8261.890356.3105755784100.539216611319061634235267.5WETMH
2023-09-25 08:00:04FORECAST202448451.831.58641.69300.271653690.631653695.185.81165369TF19.8257.890356.3105755784100.539216611319061634235267.5WETMH
2023-09-25 04:00:06FORECAST202448441.61231.11836.36500.641732631.211732635.026.23173263TT9.612244.61290356.3105755784100.203785076581021614245270WETH
2023-09-25 00:00:07FORECAST202448431.80227.96829.885000.523.664.18TF-0.198227.80290356.3105755784100.0425327492162551614235252.5WETL
2023-09-24 20:00:04FORECAST202448429.4826.49227.986000.583.954.53TF-2.52219.4890356.3105755784100.0265471343825491614235252.5WETL
2023-09-24 16:00:04FORECAST202448444.81629.3937.10300.066929170.446929174.054.49692917TF12.816250.81690356.3105755784100.295729249984751624225240WETM
2023-09-24 12:00:05FORECAST202448450.32448.23649.280004.474.47TF18.324299.32490356.3105755784100.485729739255441624215220WETMH
2023-09-24 08:00:04FORECAST202448450.48648.2949.3880004.344.34TF18.486294.48690356.3105755784100.491605114490921624215220WETMH
2023-09-24 04:00:06FORECAST202448442.76441.05441.9090004.464.46TF10.764269.76490356.3105755784100.23472501542121614215217.5WETMH