Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, October 3, 2023

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DAY 3 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/04/2023 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 43.45°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 39.69°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 41.57°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.264 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 11 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 260 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.28 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.74 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.05 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.79 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 91 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 357.23 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 83 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 4 D2: 2 D3: 5 D4: 5 D5: 2 HSdry: 100.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2023-10-04 04:00:04	OBSERVATION	2024	3	83	43.44998	39.68996	41.56997	0	0.28000000000009	1.7400000000001	6.05	7.7900000000001	T	T	11.44998	260.44998	91	357.22687332289	0	0.26369954236929	16	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2023-10-04 00:00:01	FORECAST	2024	3	83	48.002	39.218	43.61	0	0.0393701	1.4993701	6.05	7.5493701	T	T	16.002	265.002	90	356.31057557841	0	0.41525767733897	16	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	H
2023-10-03 12:00:01	FORECAST	2024	3	83	49.802	39.362	44.582	0	0.0393701	1.4993701	6.05	7.5493701	T	T	17.802	266.802	90	356.31057557841	0	0.48054655011793	16	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	H
2023-10-03 08:00:02	FORECAST	2024	3	83	49.892	39.632	44.762	0	0.04330711	1.50330711	6.05	7.55330711	T	T	17.892	266.892	90	356.31057557841	0	0.48383968975922	16	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2023-10-03 04:00:05	FORECAST	2024	3	83	49.55	39.704	44.627	0	0.05905515	1.51905515	6.05	7.56905515	T	T	17.55	266.55	90	356.31057557841	0	0.47133353454079	16	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2023-10-03 00:00:02	FORECAST	2024	3	83	49.244	40.028	44.636	0	0.09055123	0.76055123	6.05	6.81055123	T	T	17.244	266.244	91	357.22687332289	0	0.46016736178398	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	WET	H
2023-10-02 20:00:02	FORECAST	2024	3	83	49.442	39.236	44.339	0	0.04724412	0.81724412	6.05	6.86724412	T	T	17.442	266.442	91	357.22687332289	0	0.46738950217902	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	WET	H
2023-10-02 16:00:02	FORECAST	2024	3	83	49.514	38.84	44.177	0	0.06299216	0.83299216	6.05	6.88299216	T	T	17.514	266.514	91	357.22687332289	0	0.4700185254308	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	WET	H
2023-10-02 15:53:56	FORECAST	2024	3	83	49.514	38.84	44.177	0	0.06299216	0.83299216	6.05	6.88299216	T	T	17.514	266.514	91	357.22687332289	0	0.4700185254308	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	WET	H
2023-10-02 15:52:44	FORECAST	2024	3	83	49.514	38.84	44.177	0	0.06299216	0.83299216	6.05	6.88299216	T	T	17.514	266.514	91	357.22687332289	0	0.4700185254308	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	WET	H
2023-10-02 12:00:01	FORECAST	2024	3	83	49.424	38.498	43.961	0	0.04724412	0.81724412	6.05	6.86724412	T	T	17.424	266.424	91	357.22687332289	0	0.46673246405757	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	WET	H
2023-10-02 08:00:03	FORECAST	2024	3	83	49.766	38.948	44.357	0	0.06299216	1.05299216	6.05	7.10299216	T	T	17.766	266.766	91	357.22687332289	0	0.4792296532973	16	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	H
2023-10-02 04:00:04	FORECAST	2024	3	83	49.532	37.598	43.565	0	0.01181103	1.09181103	6.05	7.14181103	T	T	17.532	267.532	91	357.22687332289	0	0.47067599001629	16	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	H
2023-10-02 00:00:02	FORECAST	2024	3	83	49.046	36.302	42.674	0	0.01181103	0.92181103	6.05	6.97181103	T	T	17.046	262.046	91	357.22687332289	0	0.45295833891052	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	WET	H
2023-10-01 20:00:02	FORECAST	2024	3	83	48.542	35.402	41.972	0	0	0.75	6.05	6.8	T	T	16.542	263.542	91	357.22687332289	0	0.43468333869053	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	WET	H
2023-10-01 16:00:02	FORECAST	2024	3	83	49.424	36.068	42.746	0	0	0.52	6.05	6.57	T	T	17.424	265.424	91	357.22687332289	0	0.46673246405757	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	WET	H
2023-10-01 12:00:03	FORECAST	2024	3	83	48.614	34.664	41.639	0	0	0.45	6.05	6.5	T	T	16.614	263.614	91	357.22687332289	0	0.43728645803813	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	H
2023-10-01 08:00:02	FORECAST	2024	3	83	48.848	34.52	41.684	0	0	0.39	6.05	6.44	T	F	16.848	263.848	91	357.22687332289	0	0.44576478688894	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	MH
2023-10-01 04:00:04	FORECAST	2024	3	83	49.082	35.636	42.359	0	0	0.33	6.05	6.38	T	F	17.082	265.082	91	357.22687332289	0	0.45426798838176	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	MH
2023-10-01 00:00:02	FORECAST	2024	3	83	48.2	34.304	41.252	0	0	0.31	6.05	6.36	T	F	16.2	266.2	91	357.22687332289	0	0.42235902369214	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	MH
2023-09-30 20:00:02	FORECAST	2024	3	83	46.724	34.394	40.559	0	0	0.36	6.05	6.41	T	F	14.724	263.724	91	357.22687332289	0	0.37018063373809	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	MH
2023-09-30 16:00:02	FORECAST	2024	3	83	48.776	35.924	42.35	0	0	0.41	6.05	6.46	T	F	16.776	267.776	91	357.22687332289	0	0.44315324276502	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	MH
2023-09-30 12:00:03	FORECAST	2024	3	83	50.216	37.796	44.006	0	0	0.36	6.05	6.41	T	F	18.216	269.216	91	357.22687332289	0	0.49570251077859	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	MH
2023-09-30 08:00:03	FORECAST	2024	3	83	49.046	36.464	42.755	0	0	0.46	6.05	6.51	T	T	17.046	268.046	91	357.22687332289	0	0.45295833891052	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	H
2023-09-30 04:00:04	FORECAST	2024	3	83	49.928	38.606	44.267	0	0	0.32	6.05	6.37	T	F	17.928	271.928	91	357.22687332289	0	0.48515726695455	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	MH
2023-09-30 00:00:03	FORECAST	2024	3	83	50.828	34.898	42.863	0	0	0.21	6.05	6.26	T	F	18.828	274.828	91	357.22687332289	0	0.51811194789782	16	3	4	2	2	5	2	45	WET	MH
2023-09-29 20:00:02	FORECAST	2024	3	83	48.812	34.358	41.585	0	0	0.24	6.05	6.29	T	F	16.812	266.812	91	357.22687332289	0	0.44445871344655	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	MH
2023-09-29 16:00:03	FORECAST	2024	3	83	47.48	36.14	41.81	0	0.00787402	0.32787402	6.05	6.37787402	T	F	15.48	263.48	91	357.22687332289	0	0.39667389920694	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	MH
2023-09-29 12:00:03	FORECAST	2024	3	83	47.21	37.076	42.143	0	0.00787402	0.44787402	6.05	6.49787402	T	T	15.21	263.21	91	357.22687332289	0	0.38715005768324	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	H
2023-09-29 08:00:03	FORECAST	2024	3	83	48.794	34.988	41.891	0	0	0.38	6.06	6.44	T	F	16.794	264.794	91	357.22687332289	0	0.44380590188689	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	MH
2023-09-29 04:00:06	FORECAST	2024	3	83	47.804	37.868	42.836	0	0.03543309	0.27543309	6.05	6.32543309	T	F	15.804	268.804	91	357.22687332289	0	0.40818390262766	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	MH
2023-09-29 00:00:03	FORECAST	2024	3	83	46.688	37.454	42.071	0	0.03149608	0.22149608	5.71	5.93149608	T	F	14.688	274.688	91	357.22687332289	0	0.36893317584467	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	MH
2023-09-28 20:00:02	FORECAST	2024	3	83	46.724	36.41	41.567	0	0.04330711	0.23330711	5.8	6.03330711	T	F	14.724	270.724	91	357.22687332289	0	0.37018063373809	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	MH
2023-09-28 16:00:03	FORECAST	2024	3	83	46.364	39.038	42.701	0	0.28740173	0.48740173	5.8	6.28740173	T	F	14.364	274.364	91	357.22687332289	0	0.35776952892875	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	MH
2023-09-28 12:00:02	FORECAST	2024	3	83	47.03	40.19	43.61	0	0.33858286	0.55858286	5.8	6.35858286	T	F	15.03	272.03	91	357.22687332289	0	0.38083796483992	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	WET	MH
2023-09-28 08:00:03	FORECAST	2024	3	83	44.636	38.984	41.81	0	0.39763801	0.61763801	5.78	6.39763801	T	F	12.636	268.636	91	357.22687332289	0	0.30045878360787	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	WET	MH
2023-09-28 04:00:08	FORECAST	2024	3	83	47.642	41.864	44.753	0	0.23228359	0.43228359	5.79	6.22228359	T	F	15.642	278.642	91	357.22687332289	0	0.40241832849238	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	MH
2023-09-28 00:00:03	FORECAST	2024	3	83	47.246	40.37	43.808	0	0	0.21	5.75	5.96	T	F	15.246	276.246	91	357.22687332289	0	0.38841612380427	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	MH
2023-09-27 20:00:03	FORECAST	2024	3	83	46.598	39.956	43.277	0	0	0.18	5.63	5.81	T	F	14.598	271.598	91	357.22687332289	0	0.36582058880139	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	MH
2023-09-27 16:00:05	FORECAST	2024	3	83	47.39	40.388	43.889	0	0.02362206	0.19362206	5.71	5.90362206	T	F	15.39	273.39	91	357.22687332289	0	0.39349212395362	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	MH
2023-09-27 12:00:03	FORECAST	2024	3	83	49.352	42.404	45.878	0	0.48031522	0.48031522	5.65	6.13031522	T	F	17.352	282.352	91	357.22687332289	0	0.46410523579728	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	MH
2023-09-27 08:00:03	FORECAST	2024	3	83	46.832	40.01	43.421	0	0.53149635	0.53149635	5.37	5.90149635	T	F	14.832	266.832	91	357.22687332289	0	0.37393115771523	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	WET	MH
2023-09-27 04:00:05	FORECAST	2024	3	83	45.176	38.822	41.999	0	1.22441011	1.22441011	5.23	6.45441011	T	T	13.176	269.176	91	357.22687332289	0	0.31792786660161	16	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	H
2023-09-27 00:00:04	FORECAST	2024	3	83	47.516	39.11	43.313	0	1.0629927	1.0629927	5.14	6.2029927	T	T	15.516	276.516	91	357.22687332289	0	0.3979485506788	16	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	H
2023-09-26 20:00:04	FORECAST	2024	3	83	46.814	39.632	43.223	0	1.14960692	1.14960692	5.27	6.41960692	T	T	14.814	268.814	91	357.22687332289	0	0.37330523027191	16	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	H
2023-09-26 16:00:04	FORECAST	2024	3	83	46.76	38.606	42.683	0	0.1181103	0.2881103	5.03	5.3181103	T	F	14.76	272.76	91	357.22687332289	0	0.37142945811829	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	MH
2023-09-26 12:00:03	FORECAST	2024	3	83	43.664	34.898	39.281	0	0.14566937	0.40566937	4.79	5.19566937	T	F	11.664	274.664	91	357.22687332289	0	0.27015989378846	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	M
2023-09-26 08:00:04	FORECAST	2024	3	83	46.202	36.68	41.441	0	0.14960638	0.38960638	4.7	5.08960638	T	F	14.202	284.202	91	357.22687332289	0	0.35223228860887	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	MH
2023-09-26 04:00:05	FORECAST	2024	3	83	46.778	37.814	42.296	0	0.16141741	0.42141741	4.9	5.32141741	T	F	14.778	277.778	91	357.22687332289	0	0.37205437894724	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	MH
2023-09-26 00:00:04	FORECAST	2024	3	83	44.942	35.672	40.307	0	0.00787402	0.33787402	4.62	4.95787402	T	F	12.942	274.942	91	357.22687332289	0	0.31030507967432	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	MH
2023-09-25 20:00:03	FORECAST	2024	3	83	43.142	34.502	38.822	0	0.00787402	0.34787402	4.83	5.17787402	T	F	11.142	269.142	91	357.22687332289	0	0.2545430592025	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	M
2023-09-25 16:00:04	FORECAST	2024	3	83	49.802	42.404	46.103	0	0.21653555	0.21653555	4.68	4.89653555	T	F	17.802	282.802	91	357.22687332289	0	0.48054655011793	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	MH
2023-09-25 12:00:03	FORECAST	2024	3	83	48.362	39.974	44.168	0	0.20472452	0.37472452	5.02	5.39472452	T	F	16.362	283.362	91	357.22687332289	0	0.42818815490264	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	MH
2023-09-25 08:00:04	FORECAST	2024	3	83	47.66	38.912	43.286	0	0.21259854	0.36259854	5.18	5.54259854	T	F	15.66	278.66	91	357.22687332289	0	0.40305792550605	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	MH
2023-09-25 04:00:06	FORECAST	2024	3	83	46.526	39.758	43.142	0	0.24409462	0.57409462	5.02	5.59409462	T	F	14.526	275.526	91	357.22687332289	0	0.36333684904903	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	WET	MH
2023-09-25 00:00:07	FORECAST	2024	3	83	39.11	31.334	35.222	0	0.08267721	0.52267721	3.66	4.18267721	T	F	7.11	269.11	91	357.22687332289	0	0.15136322310945	16	1	4	2	3	5	2	52.5	WET	M
2023-09-24 20:00:04	FORECAST	2024	3	83	37.814	29.678	33.746	0	0.10236226	0.58236226	3.95	4.53236226	T	F	5.814	262.814	91	357.22687332289	0	0.12513141799999	16	1	4	2	3	5	2	52.5	WET	M
2023-09-24 16:00:04	FORECAST	2024	3	83	40.694	31.712	36.203	0	0.01968505	0.37968505	4.05	4.42968505	T	F	8.694	278.694	91	357.22687332289	0	0.18805620894376	16	1	4	2	2	5	2	35	WET	M
2023-09-24 12:00:05	FORECAST	2024	3	83	66.128	43.646	54.887	0	0	0	4.47	4.47	T	F	34.128	322.128	91	357.22687332289	0	0.92660545405017	16	5	4	2	1	5	2	27.5	WET	MH
2023-09-24 08:00:04	FORECAST	2024	3	83	66.074	43.232	54.653	0	0	0	4.34	4.34	T	F	34.074	317.074	91	357.22687332289	0	0.92591094512022	16	5	4	2	1	5	2	27.5	WET	MH
2023-09-24 04:00:06	FORECAST	2024	3	83	54.068	43.304	48.686	0	0	0	4.46	4.46	T	F	22.068	300.068	91	357.22687332289	0	0.63415638713309	16	3	4	2	1	5	2	22.5	WET	MH
2023-09-24 00:00:03	FORECAST	2024	3	83	37.13	30.47	33.8	0	0.00787402	0.52787402	5.9	6.42787402	T	F	5.13	242.13	91	357.22687332289	0	0.11264282235855	16	1	4	2	3	5	2	52.5	WET	M
2023-09-23 20:00:04	FORECAST	2024	3	83	34.538	30.47	32.504	0	0.00787402	0.50787402	6.09	6.59787402	T	T	2.538	241.538	91	357.22687332289	0	0.073386002883127	16	1	4	2	3	5	2	52.5	WET	H
2023-09-23 16:00:05	FORECAST	2024	3	83	41.216	34.142	37.679	0	0	0.44	6.14	6.58	T	T	9.216	253.216	91	357.22687332289	0	0.20125811786114	16	1	4	2	2	5	2	35	WET	H
2023-09-23 12:00:04	FORECAST	2024	3	83	45.662	43.718	44.69	0	0	0.26	4.72	4.98	T	F	13.662	275.662	91	357.22687332289	0	0.3340054471836	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	MH
2023-09-23 08:00:05	FORECAST	2024	3	83	45.662	43.718	44.69	0	0	0	4.57	4.57	T	F	13.662	283.662	91	357.22687332289	0	0.3340054471836	16	2	4	2	1	5	2	20	WET	MH
2023-09-23 04:00:07	FORECAST	2024	3	83	35.96	34.43	35.195	0	0	0.33	4.6	4.93	T	F	3.96	258.96	91	357.22687332289	0	0.093386028391212	16	1	4	2	2	5	2	35	WET	M