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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, October 29, 2023

[ Saturday, October 28, 2023 | Index | Today | Monday, October 30, 2023 ]

DAY 29 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/30/2023 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 48.12°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 27.34°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 37.73°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.737
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 16
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 255

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.03 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.76 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.79 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 3 in
SWE DAY: 65
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 333.93 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.84 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 109

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 5
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 4
D5: 2
HSdry: 22.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-10-30 04:00:04OBSERVATION20242910948.1200827.3399837.730032.526241666666700.032.762.79FF16.12008255.1200865333.93327905345 0.843596163431450.7371626356012916 45214222DRYL
2023-10-30 00:00:02FORECAST20242910942.3528.2235.2853.532009600.032.762.79FF10.35249.3564333.604343465511.17829374372190.534066026135591635214220DRYL
2023-10-29 12:00:02FORECAST20242910941.926.76234.3313.602070400.032.762.79FF9.9248.964333.651371864371.2018357305120.517017983859571635214220DRYL
2023-10-29 08:00:02FORECAST20242910941.6326.94234.2863.569204800.032.762.79FF9.63248.6364333.629311831741.19079134121060.506772193455871635214220DRYL
2023-10-29 04:00:04FORECAST20242910941.14428.68834.9163.537743933333300.032.762.79FF9.144248.14464333.608192958341.18022036074870.488323053218421625214218DRYL
2023-10-29 00:00:02FORECAST20242910942.9827.80635.3934.357349600.032.762.79FF10.98250.9865335.158141373871.46040119325220.557821727223921635214220DRYL
2023-10-28 20:00:02FORECAST20242910943.26828.54435.9064.491370400.032.762.79FF11.268250.26865335.24756685241.50572099843290.568617806131791635214220DRYL
2023-10-28 16:00:02FORECAST20242910943.80828.81436.3114.389624800.032.762.79FF11.808250.80865335.179679807941.4713130349410.588716823591041635214220DRYL
2023-10-28 12:00:03FORECAST20242910942.9828.9435.964.354791200.032.762.79FF10.98249.9865335.156433983451.45953628933450.557821727223921635214220DRYL
2023-10-28 08:00:02FORECAST20242910942.1729.0335.64.458209600.032.762.79FF10.17248.1765335.225443118091.49450528867330.527252547611931635214220DRYL
2023-10-28 04:00:04FORECAST20242910941.39628.9435.1684.665741566666700.032.762.79FF9.396248.39665335.363870583321.56472115093880.497888649584241625214218DRYL
2023-10-28 00:00:02FORECAST20242910940.6428.6734.6553.5700904002.762.76FF8.64246.6465334.632227028481.1946673012450.469217485429311625214218DRYL
2023-10-27 20:00:02FORECAST20242910939.86627.73433.83.5956744002.762.76FF7.866247.86665334.649334497091.20329004502820.440029398843971625214218DRYL
2023-10-27 16:00:03FORECAST20242910941.8129.01235.4113.3978904002.762.76FF9.81251.8165334.517051677471.13665227853120.513603634461151635214220DRYL
2023-10-27 12:00:02FORECAST20242910940.62229.71435.1683.5067208002.762.76FF8.622249.62265334.589848357351.17331318070360.468536190821541625214218DRYL
2023-10-27 08:00:02FORECAST20242910942.29630.61436.4553.313168002.762.76FF10.296253.29665334.460366912381.10812338492240.532022939224431635214220DRYL
2023-10-27 04:00:04FORECAST20242910941.28829.15635.2223.9080571166667002.762.76FF9.288249.28865334.858128445591.30864469194550.493788638849331625214218DRYL
2023-10-27 00:00:03FORECAST20242910941.93629.85835.8973.4313464002.562.56FF9.936250.93665334.539432545911.14792067752440.51838338828981635214220DRYL
2023-10-26 20:00:02FORECAST20242910942.31430.68636.53.3920848002.562.56FF10.314256.31465334.513167744881.13469703170730.532704064600691635214220DRYL
2023-10-26 16:00:03FORECAST20242910941.23429.8435.5373.4529944002.562.56FF9.234253.23465334.553913270881.15521278902240.491738852444631625214218DRYL
2023-10-26 12:00:02FORECAST20242910941.88228.50835.1953.4495504002.562.56FF9.882255.88265334.551609572441.15405263862130.516335205787991635214220DRYL
2023-10-26 08:00:03FORECAST20242910939.84828.18434.0163.5999056002.562.56FF7.848251.84865334.652163702071.20471619816320.439353846671611625214218DRYL
2023-10-26 04:00:05FORECAST20242910939.81228.77834.2953.90008785002.562.56FF7.812246.81265334.852803914621.30595535208590.438003273937511625214218DRYL
2023-10-26 00:00:04FORECAST20242910940.26227.3233.7911.2990430824181002.612.61FF8.262244.26265333.109188792220.432723187390440.454932281731791625214218DRYL
2023-10-25 20:00:03FORECAST20242910940.9128.52634.7180002.632.63FF8.91247.9165332.2340501299800.479446607241391625215222.5DRYL
2023-10-25 16:00:02FORECAST20242910940.22629.04834.6370002.612.61FF8.226245.22665332.2340501299800.453574527244661625215222.5DRYL
2023-10-25 12:00:03FORECAST20242910940.24428.59834.4210.29488374210948002.612.61FF8.244248.24465332.432960674610.0980290754442620.454253337670311625214218DRYL
2023-10-25 08:00:03FORECAST20242910939.68630.14634.9160.4101339100769200.022.642.66FF7.686245.68665332.510660908270.136373897500570.43328205407191625214218DRYL
2023-10-25 04:00:07FORECAST20242910939.54228.43633.9890.7399890009541400.012.722.73FF7.542245.54265332.732919450010.246218700648360.427898046855941625214218DRYL
2023-10-25 00:00:05FORECAST20242910940.60429.53435.0696.184765690371200.012.792.8FF8.604248.60465336.374867686682.08039974077170.467854988342811625214218DRYL
2023-10-24 20:00:02FORECAST20242910940.44229.17434.8081.011374861083002.662.66FF8.442250.44265332.915641460230.33670251063420.461728639238941625214218DRYL
2023-10-24 16:00:04FORECAST20242910940.26227.28433.7731.3984712098754002.732.73FF8.262247.26265333.176052591220.465937117368770.454932281731791625214218DRYL
2023-10-24 12:00:04FORECAST20242910939.00226.16832.5854.249760491968100.022.82.82FF7.002247.00265335.086330430191.42403664846080.4078351787651625214218DRYL
2023-10-24 08:00:03FORECAST20242910937.43624.3530.8934.639268323819400.032.842.87FF5.436240.43665335.346216525691.55576107984030.351176218212491625214218DRYL
2023-10-24 04:00:05FORECAST20242910937.32825.03431.1814.609578328833600.12.712.81FF5.328239.32865335.326415918981.54571337990560.347372152577541625224236DRYL
2023-10-24 00:00:03FORECAST20242910935.3322.31628.8234.559370366578700.092.652.74FF3.33230.3365335.292928240841.52872464114470.280089800065921625214218DRYL
2023-10-23 20:00:03FORECAST20242910934.93420.40827.6714.758506643933400.122.662.78FF2.934232.93465335.42572292431.59612553108140.267541860983631625224236DRYL
2023-10-23 16:00:03FORECAST20242910934.57421.5628.0674.3578799606486002.732.73FF2.574232.57465335.158495317411.46058049038490.256385619334811625214218DRYL
2023-10-23 12:00:03FORECAST20242910935.43822.22628.8323.940345584360200.022.562.58FF3.438230.43865334.879700337181.31954174851550.283560750425231625214218DRYL
2023-10-23 08:00:04FORECAST20242910935.36618.7727.0683.939070696320700.022.572.59FF3.366231.36665334.878848619361.31911145941410.281244495586571625214218DRYL
2023-10-23 04:00:06FORECAST20242910935.0619.88627.4734.078887454151900.032.582.61FF3.06232.0665334.972239937291.36631406696940.271503499483571625214218DRYL
2023-10-23 00:00:04FORECAST20242910937.29223.25230.2724.654419559804400.022.72.72FF5.292231.29265335.356320487671.56088901758180.346107514777031625214218DRYL
2023-10-22 20:00:03FORECAST20242910936.78823.41430.1014.6714864889659002.692.69FF4.788220.78865335.367701509511.56666568643720.328588034682981625214218DRYL
2023-10-22 16:00:04FORECAST20242910945.73422.44234.08814.25548737539201.443.024.46TF13.734238.73465341.681459514294.87083573251130.658192441168791635243260WETM
2023-10-22 12:00:03FORECAST20242910940.13619.63429.88513.48868370106201.293.144.43TF8.136236.13665341.181941152484.60209528872040.450182548379581625243254WETL
2023-10-22 08:00:03FORECAST20242910939.14621.07430.1112.4430374200201.263.134.39TF7.146247.14665340.499206742364.23684437098220.413163986582581625243254WETL
2023-10-22 04:00:04FORECAST20242910932.50418.55425.52916.34813935402801.583.24.78TF0.504229.50465343.039734112125.60806137723360.197225137039261615252240WETL
2023-10-22 00:00:04FORECAST20242910939.50620.28229.89416.69010478614601.23.95.1TF7.506235.50665343.261007638415.72906218648310.426554099054831625242236WETL
2023-10-21 20:00:05FORECAST20242910936.80619.45428.138.093075434071200.522.93.42FF4.806245.80665337.639440684522.73254146297750.329207572167541625233240.5DRYM
2023-10-21 16:00:02FORECAST20242910941.73822.1931.96416.11738300457101.73.365.06TF9.738241.73865342.890311340055.52649447642410.510871424726941635252250WETL
2023-10-21 12:00:04FORECAST20242910946.97624.42235.6995.15951409861850.059055151.709055152.334.03905515TF14.976283.97665335.692932337031.73201241719950.700463837025916452542110WETM
2023-10-21 08:00:03FORECAST20242910949.98226.13238.0575.52186231430550.059055151.909055152.224.12905515TF17.982286.98265335.934147385421.85498210853590.7915622513505716452542110WETM
2023-10-21 04:00:07FORECAST20242910948.88425.7937.3373.25593698530070.066929171.836929171.813.64692917TF16.884294.88465334.422068758321.0888571823710.7603203780131916452542110DRYVH
2023-10-21 00:00:05FORECAST20242910947.82226.5137.1661.00972277757020.377952962.207952962.274.47795296TF15.822299.82265332.914529506120.336151383426390.7278262669804116452542110WETM
2023-10-20 20:00:05FORECAST20242910948.41627.19437.8052.08179216836710.377952962.147952962.444.58795296TF16.416295.41665333.635118301220.69455897637170.7462668008772716452542110WETM
2023-10-20 16:00:04FORECAST20242910949.26225.21437.2382.81452559181560.381889972.321889971.984.30188997TF17.262290.26265334.126495604820.94040757278340.7713542849872916452542110WETM
2023-10-20 12:00:04FORECAST20242910936.82421.1128.9675.0246861354210.173228442.143228443.335.47322844TF4.824275.82465335.603120733361.6863003477530.329827578697071625254290WETL
2023-10-20 08:00:04FORECAST20242910937.09421.1129.1027.01722971047320.204724522.354724523.255.60472452TT5.094265.09465336.927267535592.36429603201930.33918295856361625254290WETL
2023-10-20 04:00:07FORECAST20242910946.14825.05235.69.95236294717210.385826981.295826982.954.24582698TF14.148268.14865338.865646959163.37251390886580.672538802774431635243260WETM
2023-10-20 00:00:04FORECAST20242910924.13420.2122.17217.6229908936830.098425251.878425252.264.13842525TF-7.866226.13465343.863668258176.05990629438220.0495249530056881615252240WETL
2023-10-19 20:00:04FORECAST20242910924.58423.68424.13418.1823324304740.094488241.884488242.674.55448824TF-7.416234.58465344.224328400996.25880116964350.0540813409292711615252240WETL
2023-10-19 16:00:05FORECAST20242910935.99622.42429.2110.9265937469470.181102462.031102462.934.96110246TF3.996257.99665339.505847012293.70964246501650.301814232032441625253267.5WETL
2023-10-19 12:00:04FORECAST20242910936.8633.22435.0427.17266027139380.614173561.514173563.174.68417356TF4.86244.8665337.03027757142.41740368219320.331068993038071625254290WETM
2023-10-19 08:00:03FORECAST20242910936.8633.22435.0426.87161837208990.614173561.424173563.084.50417356TF4.86241.8665336.830728188322.31457222010330.331068993038071625244272WETM
2023-10-19 04:00:06FORECAST20242910945.2344.49244.8612.254441147890200.482.512.99FF13.23278.2365333.750980552780.752421943706890.640415973565821635224240DRYM