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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, October 28, 2023

[ Friday, October 27, 2023 | Index | Today | Sunday, October 29, 2023 ]

DAY 28 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/29/2023 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 35.93°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 16.71°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 26.32°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.239
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 4
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 245

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.23 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.34 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.57 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 4 in
SWE DAY: 66
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 335.92 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 1.35 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 108

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 5
D2: 2
D3: 2
D4: 4
D5: 2
HSdry: 32.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-10-29 04:00:04OBSERVATION20242810835.9299416.7100826.320014.009178333333300.233.343.57FF3.92994244.9299466335.92308765792 1.34677556470460.2394490322002516 15224232DRYL
2023-10-29 00:00:02FORECAST20242810836.9519.41828.1844.873260800.233.343.57FF4.95245.9565335.502216611691.63498980052690.269964915050971625224236DRYL
2023-10-28 12:00:02FORECAST20242810836.4119.41827.9144.893137600.233.343.57FF4.41245.4165335.515463973061.6417233321480.253571699615411625224236DRYL
2023-10-28 08:00:02FORECAST20242810835.00619.14827.0774.93948400.233.343.57FF3.006244.00665335.546350024881.65742582720630.213517652340661615224232DRYL
2023-10-28 04:00:04FORECAST20242810835.85219.43627.6445.112280766666700.233.343.57FF3.852244.85265335.661472769721.71599569135160.237197309856361615224232DRYL
2023-10-28 00:00:01FORECAST20242810835.4219.38227.4013.94194400.23.343.54FF3.42244.4266335.878344676181.32401362552620.224929628525121615224232DRYL
2023-10-27 20:00:02FORECAST20242810834.98818.9526.9693.9434200.23.343.54FF2.988245.98866335.879327004011.32451325569410.213029240847331615224232DRYL
2023-10-27 16:00:02FORECAST20242810836.91421.03828.9763.879656800.23.343.54FF4.914247.91466335.836887084841.30293186266950.268855776002421625224236DRYL
2023-10-27 12:00:02FORECAST20242810835.83421.228.5173.913801600.23.343.54FF3.834246.83466335.859614254441.31448789564440.236678937237231615224232DRYL
2023-10-27 08:00:02FORECAST20242810837.25623.39630.3263.861944800.23.343.54FF5.256249.25666335.825096998521.29693798706290.279483946849391625224236DRYL
2023-10-27 04:00:04FORECAST20242810835.54620.35427.954.324682716666700.23.343.54FF3.546245.54666336.132946913071.45366834601720.22847013927051615224232DRYL
2023-10-27 00:00:03FORECAST20242810836.2320.08428.1573.897664003.343.34FF4.23247.2366335.848873128861.30902606223490.248225696639221615214216DRYL
2023-10-26 20:00:02FORECAST20242810836.62621.84829.2373.8851672003.343.34FF4.626251.62666335.840555003521.30479670872950.260065745822611625214218DRYL
2023-10-26 16:00:03FORECAST20242810835.81621.03828.4273.9103576003.343.34FF3.816249.81666335.857321978011.31332223151230.236161187374351615214216DRYL
2023-10-26 12:00:02FORECAST20242810836.66220.60628.6343.8812312003.343.34FF4.662251.66266335.837935066851.3034646717250.261156352280141625214218DRYL
2023-10-26 08:00:03FORECAST20242810835.5120.24627.8783.9204928003.343.34FF3.51249.5166335.864067762751.31675265944260.227455387753681615214216DRYL
2023-10-26 04:00:05FORECAST20242810834.41220.91227.6624.23189265003.343.34FF2.412245.41266336.071244611091.4222174299460.197746456338741615214216DRYL
2023-10-26 00:00:03FORECAST20242810834.9719.29227.1311.636063082418100.023.373.39FF2.97241.9766334.339197264020.547000017648970.212541480543281615214216DRYL
2023-10-25 20:00:03FORECAST20242810835.81620.01227.9140.007434513769004600.023.393.41FF3.816244.81666333.246662730770.00247752690254670.236161187374351615215220DRYL
2023-10-25 16:00:02FORECAST20242810835.40219.63427.5180003.393.39FF3.402243.40266333.2416650586200.224426387842741615215220DRYL
2023-10-25 12:00:03FORECAST20242810835.92421.1128.5170.60877974210948003.393.39FF3.924245.92466333.650590144150.203119720222630.239277013641531615214216DRYL
2023-10-25 08:00:03FORECAST20242810835.76221.8328.7960.7562067100769200.023.423.44FF3.762243.76266333.749523642230.252383629263230.234611681352241615214216DRYL
2023-10-25 04:00:07FORECAST20242810834.86221.39828.131.059592200954100.013.53.51FF2.862243.86266333.952999364770.353853993612150.209628621430811615214216DRYL
2023-10-25 00:00:04FORECAST20242810835.67221.3828.5266.590468890371200.023.563.58FF3.672245.67266337.635114956462.22517372141750.23204169139141615214216DRYL
2023-10-24 20:00:02FORECAST20242810835.97821.79428.8861.415798861083003.443.44FF3.978247.97866334.191701349940.473148230154640.240843295224921615214216DRYL
2023-10-24 16:00:03FORECAST20242810833.90819.70626.8071.7751464098754003.513.51FF1.908244.90866334.432289379770.593666277838920.184932003896661615214216DRYL
2023-10-24 12:00:04FORECAST20242810833.51219.43626.4744.504518091968100.043.563.6FF1.512245.51266336.252490048061.51465542489080.175233620705181615214216DRYL
2023-10-24 08:00:03FORECAST20242810833.5318.44625.9884.816781923819400.053.63.65FF1.53240.5366336.459933527561.6206541259050.175667350588821615214216DRYL
2023-10-24 04:00:05FORECAST20242810830.63217.25823.9454.799883928833600.113.483.59FF-1.368239.63266336.44871204191.61491476580670.11457345666321615224232DRYL
2023-10-24 00:00:03FORECAST20242810828.4916.86222.6764.656392766578700.093.433.52FF-3.51233.4966336.353404163711.5661935581620.0803521914863811615214216DRYL
2023-10-23 20:00:03FORECAST20242810829.37215.99822.6854.824434643933400.123.443.56FF-2.628236.37266336.465015326421.62325347641230.0933721263883421615224232DRYL
2023-10-23 16:00:03FORECAST20242810829.71417.67223.6934.416231160648600.013.53.51FF-2.286235.71466336.193809327181.48470957676790.09881805288451615214216DRYL
2023-10-23 12:00:03FORECAST20242810830.79418.37424.5844.046814384360200.023.343.36FF-1.206232.79466335.948130293081.35951972606890.117529265478931615214216DRYL
2023-10-23 08:00:04FORECAST20242810830.216.10623.1534.032550696320700.023.353.37FF-1.8234.266335.938639665791.35468959530530.106950214963931615214216DRYL
2023-10-23 04:00:05FORECAST20242810830.79417.25824.0264.164101854151900.033.363.39FF-1.206234.79466336.026156796951.39924714256170.117529265478931615214216DRYL
2023-10-23 00:00:04FORECAST20242810830.81218.82424.8184.850137159804400.023.483.5FF-1.188231.81266336.482082392881.63198425142210.117860980839781615214216DRYL
2023-10-22 20:00:03FORECAST20242810828.63418.0523.3424.8525424889659003.473.47FF-3.366221.63466336.48367953021.63280135176390.0823790356798331615214216DRYL
2023-10-22 16:00:03FORECAST20242810829.37219.50824.4414.5996905753920.381889971.811889973.435.24188997TF-2.628231.37266342.876301036545.00588790076830.0933721263883421615252240WETL
2023-10-22 12:00:03FORECAST20242810829.28218.21223.74713.6333317010620.165354421.725354423.485.20535442TF-2.718234.28266342.249563358014.66600182180350.0919764228587551615253260WETL
2023-10-22 08:00:03FORECAST20242810830.43420.69625.56512.545668620020.19685051.66685053.55.1668505TF-1.566246.43466341.542310541184.28487664776550.111032923106381615253260WETL
2023-10-22 04:00:04FORECAST20242810827.60818.28422.94616.3508945540280.437008111.927008113.635.55700811TF-4.392234.60866344.00814215425.62484085809020.0687489429451271615252240WETL
2023-10-22 00:00:04FORECAST20242810829.64221.84825.74516.8114319861460.149606382.049606383.835.87960638TT-2.358233.64266344.304962344195.7882594569420.0976527117528511615252240WETL
2023-10-21 20:00:05FORECAST20242810830.68620.73225.7098.14719543407120.145669370.685669373.514.19566937TF-1.314246.68666338.66219262942.75914706948280.115552808511551615233236WETL
2023-10-21 16:00:02FORECAST20242810830.4722.126.28516.3325838045710.480315222.450315223.395.84031522TT-1.53238.4766343.996333546095.61834894610650.111670777798051615252240WETL
2023-10-21 12:00:04FORECAST20242810833.11625.28629.2015.18974779338290.610236551.850236552.914.76023655TF1.116275.11666336.707487134361.7474269383710.165863366746091615254280WETL
2023-10-21 08:00:03FORECAST20242810834.03426.20430.1195.73393523842860.704724792.084724792.774.85472479TF2.034275.03466337.068267458171.93272761653450.188086341970921615254280WETL
2023-10-21 04:00:06FORECAST20242810836.89625.66431.283.28497266861230.661417681.891417682.474.36141768TF4.896283.89666335.440742244561.10191367021240.268302064795311625254290WETL
2023-10-21 00:00:04FORECAST20242810835.38427.4131.3971.1693672224430.539370372.139370372.744.87937037TF3.384290.38466334.026585066070.390599740000830.223923785636411615254280WETL
2023-10-20 20:00:04FORECAST20242810836.75227.48232.1172.69108496836710.531496352.111496352.884.99149635TF4.752284.75266335.044530316360.901633299267940.263893101086731625254290WETM
2023-10-20 16:00:04FORECAST20242810835.31227.71631.5143.38554079181560.55118142.26118142.444.7011814TF3.312279.31266335.507777071231.1358752652460.221919773517421615254280WETL
2023-10-20 12:00:04FORECAST20242810833.76426.90630.3354.06804036516870.496063262.446063263.636.07606326TT1.764276.76466335.962252783181.3667080054950.181367469367381615254280WETL
2023-10-20 08:00:04FORECAST20242810834.26827.37430.8215.88230426842140.570866452.710866453.476.18086645TT2.268266.26866337.166545290561.98331620853160.19403165736921615254280WETL
2023-10-20 04:00:07FORECAST20242810835.00626.83430.9210.6157757471720.295275751.125275753.514.63527575TF3.006260.00666340.282578596513.612363545050.213517652340661615243248WETL
2023-10-20 00:00:04FORECAST20242810831.58624.5328.05816.5925671562531.287402271.947402272.874.81740227TF-0.414239.58666344.163945442665.71056337751830.132753462485121615252240WETL
2023-10-19 20:00:04FORECAST20242810832.68425.01628.8517.1957965827751.307087321.957087323.285.23708732TF0.684247.68466344.552422832495.92485337512980.156016902130841615252240WETL
2023-10-19 16:00:05FORECAST20242810844.54629.4837.0139.74947826181271.85039471.85039473.715.5603947TF12.546259.54666339.715094236593.31204492646930.538071350113791635253275WETM
2023-10-19 12:00:03FORECAST20242810842.67431.87437.2747.30933787139380.720472831.340472833.514.85047283TF10.674245.67466338.109906093392.47135954130180.468506148071771625244272WETM
2023-10-19 08:00:03FORECAST20242810843.17831.04637.1127.00829597208990.685039741.145039743.524.66503974TF11.178243.17866337.91118256012.36818157966010.487229073360451625244272WETM
2023-10-19 04:00:05FORECAST20242810851.38630.84841.1172.46531234789020.480315220.520315223.253.77031522TF19.386271.38666334.893749343650.825617695488150.768397820500811645234266DRYH
2023-10-19 00:00:04FORECAST20242810828.99427.98628.496.9019537646291003.563.56FF-3.006224.99466337.840947701692.33176260083550.0876136818728341615214216DRYL
2023-10-18 20:00:04FORECAST20242810831.35228.68830.026.1115152266328003.53.5FF-0.648235.35266337.318299042162.0615259208180.128120842292671615214216DRYL
2023-10-18 16:00:04FORECAST20242810834.19630.21832.2073.0235682870203003.113.11FF2.196244.19666335.266420058951.01370091539310.192190275644131615214216DRYL
2023-10-18 12:00:05FORECAST20242810831.80231.11831.462.6570476878129002.992.99FF-0.198254.80266335.021804245150.89016891033650.137130669019051615214216DRYL
2023-10-18 08:00:06FORECAST20242810831.80231.11831.463.0153260089398003.073.07FF-0.198245.80266335.260921665941.01092097688040.137130669019051615214216DRYL
2023-10-18 04:00:06FORECAST20242810841.50441.41441.4590.22097219530779002.892.89FF9.504273.50466333.390167998180.0736699573165890.425378909038091625214218DRYL