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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, October 23, 2023

[ Sunday, October 22, 2023 | Index | Today | Tuesday, October 24, 2023 ]

DAY 23 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/24/2023 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
M
MEDIUM

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 39.56°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 27.40°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 33.48°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.268
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 8
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 390

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.01 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.02 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.07 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.09 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 71
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 338.22 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 103

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 5
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 22.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-10-24 04:00:04OBSERVATION20242310339.5627.3999233.4799600.00999999999999090.0199999999999914.074.09TF7.56389.5671338.22270370998 00.2681292034623616 25215222.5WETM
2023-10-24 00:00:01FORECAST20242310337.47228.25632.864000.014.074.08TF5.472387.47270337.234052736900.204591076490751615215220WETM
2023-10-23 12:00:02FORECAST20242310336.6826.83431.757000.014.074.08TF4.68386.6870337.234052736900.18304762904911615215220WETL
2023-10-23 08:00:02FORECAST20242310337.29227.42832.36000.014.074.08TF5.292387.29270337.234052736900.199567070152741615215220WETM
2023-10-23 04:00:04FORECAST20242310337.27428.86833.071000.014.074.08TF5.274387.27470337.234052736900.19906877755671615215220WETM
2023-10-23 00:00:02FORECAST20242310338.28228.59833.440004.074.07TF6.282385.28271338.2227037099800.228110828205971615215220WETM
2023-10-22 20:00:01FORECAST20242310336.91427.44632.180004.074.07TF4.914381.91471338.2227037099800.189260735642251615215220WETM
2023-10-22 16:00:02FORECAST20242310336.9527.21232.0810004.074.07TF4.95381.9571338.2227037099800.190227967408811615215220WETM
2023-10-22 12:00:02FORECAST20242310337.07627.28432.180004.074.07TF5.076382.07671338.2227037099800.193637074929671615215220WETM
2023-10-22 08:00:02FORECAST20242310338.46228.09433.2780004.074.07TF6.462383.46271338.2227037099800.233536258347221615215220WETM
2023-10-22 04:00:03FORECAST20242310336.48226.90631.6940004.074.07TF4.482380.48271338.2227037099800.17789077541681615215220WETL
2023-10-22 00:00:03FORECAST20242310336.26627.15831.7120004.074.07TF4.266373.26671338.2227037099800.172370482141891615215220WETL
2023-10-21 20:00:03FORECAST20242310338.28229.6633.971000.014.074.08TF6.282379.28271338.2227037099800.228110828205971615215220WETM
2023-10-21 16:00:01FORECAST20242310337.41828.23832.828000.014.074.08TF5.418376.41871338.2227037099800.203076045389911615215220WETM
2023-10-21 12:00:03FORECAST20242310339.88430.23635.06000.164.074.23TF7.884379.88471338.2227037099800.278807768994271625225245WETM
2023-10-21 08:00:02FORECAST20242310340.49630.93835.717000.264.074.33TF8.496380.49671338.2227037099800.299525108564831625225245WETM
2023-10-21 04:00:05FORECAST20242310340.76630.50635.636000.184.074.25TF8.766381.76671338.2227037099800.308881478233461625225245WETM
2023-10-21 00:00:03FORECAST20242310342.63832.32437.481000.114.074.18TF10.638379.63871338.2227037099800.376909389587451625225245WETM
2023-10-20 20:00:03FORECAST20242310342.09831.26236.68000.114.074.18TF10.098379.09871338.2227037099800.356775051810741625225245WETM
2023-10-20 16:00:02FORECAST20242310341.88231.08236.482000.164.074.23TF9.882376.88271338.2227037099800.348828103370261625225245WETM
2023-10-20 12:00:02FORECAST20242310342.90833.04437.976000.114.074.18TF10.908379.90871338.2227037099800.387107482859941625225245WETM
2023-10-20 08:00:03FORECAST20242310341.01830.86635.942000.134.074.2TF9.018375.01871338.2227037099800.317727497379621625225245WETM
2023-10-20 04:00:06FORECAST20242310342.56631.5537.058000.024.074.09TF10.566377.56671338.2227037099800.374204006478791625215222.5WETM
2023-10-20 00:00:03FORECAST20242310339.61429.89434.754000.014.074.08TF7.614369.61471338.2227037099800.269894590978571625215222.5WETM
2023-10-19 20:00:03FORECAST20242310341.37830.34435.861000.044.074.11TF9.378368.37871338.2227037099800.330546085772061625215222.5WETM
2023-10-19 16:00:03FORECAST20242310342.90832.16237.535000.034.074.1TF10.908369.90871338.2227037099800.387107482859941625215222.5WETM
2023-10-19 12:00:03FORECAST20242310341.50430.3835.942000.014.074.08TF9.504365.50471338.2227037099800.335080946984761625215222.5WETM
2023-10-19 08:00:02FORECAST20242310341.05430.235.627000.034.074.1TF9.054364.05471338.2227037099800.318999902667381625215222.5WETM
2023-10-19 04:00:05FORECAST20242310342.76432.19837.481000.034.074.1TF10.764369.76471338.2227037099800.381658304697731625215222.5WETM
2023-10-19 00:00:03FORECAST20242310341.23430.70435.969000.044.074.11TF9.234363.23471338.2227037099800.325393697402911625215222.5WETM
2023-10-18 20:00:03FORECAST20242310341.0930.39835.744000.054.074.12TF9.09364.0971338.2227037099800.320274442739871625215222.5WETM
2023-10-18 16:00:03FORECAST20242310340.49631.4635.978000.14.074.17TF8.496361.49671338.2227037099800.299525108564831625225245WETM
2023-10-18 12:00:04FORECAST20242310343.10633.54838.327000.064.074.13TF11.106371.10671338.2227037099800.394636359917451625215222.5WETM
2023-10-18 08:00:04FORECAST20242310341.41431.60436.509000.074.074.14TF9.414364.41471338.2227037099800.331839262170511625215222.5WETM
2023-10-18 04:00:05FORECAST20242310342.65635.02438.84000.014.074.08TF10.656370.65671338.2227037099800.377586686286261625215222.5WETM
2023-10-18 00:00:03FORECAST20242310341.82835.90638.86700.086614220.176614224.034.20661422TF9.828368.82871338.2227037099800.346851517888761625225245WETM
2023-10-17 20:00:03FORECAST20242310341.64836.1438.89400.090551230.1605512344.16055123TF9.648364.64871338.2227037099800.340293186862661625225245WETM
2023-10-17 16:00:03FORECAST20242310340.98233.8937.43600.106299270.1962992744.19629927TF8.982366.98271338.2227037099800.316457239418351625225245WETM
2023-10-17 12:00:04FORECAST20242310338.94831.40635.17700.007874020.1378740244.13787402TF6.948360.94871338.2227037099800.248535635411271615225240WETM
2023-10-17 08:00:03FORECAST20242310339.7432.48636.113000.124.024.14TF7.74361.7471338.2227037099800.274036298315411625225245WETM
2023-10-17 04:00:05FORECAST20242310335.49226.25830.8750.884559011015050.192913490.3129134944.31291349TF3.492361.49271338.805486499160.299693446064170.153496117360711615224232WETL
2023-10-17 00:00:03FORECAST20242310332.77427.57230.1731.54847624202350.279527710.499527714.094.58952771TF0.774344.77471339.242042275250.525308242758750.0983360337450271615234248WETL
2023-10-16 20:00:03FORECAST20242310331.80226.29429.0481.62832245840260.287401730.497401734.044.53740173TF-0.198349.80271339.294495218620.552480846576870.0826368208040061615234248WETL
2023-10-16 16:00:03FORECAST20242310333.27827.51830.3981.01635867217370.200787510.370787514.024.39078751TF1.278353.27871338.892209347680.344436035902630.107286157333291615224232WETL
2023-10-16 12:00:04FORECAST20242310334.44828.43631.4420.25250632333640.055118140.085118144.024.10511814TF2.448361.44871338.389198516940.0854454123742630.130282895310331615214216WETL
2023-10-16 08:00:04FORECAST20242310333.49427.60830.5510.352923018552990.070866180.090866183.914.00086618TF1.494338.49471338.455380487770.119448694527250.11129599434841615224232WETL
2023-10-16 04:00:05FORECAST20242310332.37827.66230.020.134627581582550.027559070.117559073.83.91755907TF0.378343.37871338.311486234370.0455460572133310.091695756893921615224232DRYL
2023-10-16 00:00:03FORECAST20242310339.59631.31635.4560003.843.84TF7.596347.59671338.2227037099800.269305483359721625215222.5DRYL
2023-10-15 20:00:07FORECAST20242310339.77632.0935.9330003.783.78TF7.776339.77671338.2227037099800.275225378626241625215222.5DRYL
2023-10-15 16:00:04FORECAST20242310338.6632.03635.3480.803862882868870.137795350.637795354.024.65779535TF6.66341.6671338.752374929140.272310460689210.239585853918291615234248WETM
2023-10-15 12:00:04FORECAST20242310340.71231.135.9060.14317512836370.11811030.60811034.14.7081103TF8.712343.71271338.317122039410.0484385973756310.306999996434821625234254WETM
2023-10-15 08:00:03FORECAST20242310339.48830.68635.0870.0415236657740760.129921330.669921334.184.84992133TF7.488341.48871338.250090458990.014045383704270.26578441725431625234254WETM
2023-10-15 04:00:06FORECAST20242310342.45829.19235.825000.014.224.23TF10.458343.45871338.2227037099800.370157554830731625215222.5WETM
2023-10-15 00:00:04FORECAST20242310345.19431.04638.12000.423.84.22TF13.194356.19471338.2227037099800.475898129695721625225245WETM
2023-10-14 20:00:03FORECAST20242310345.33832.43238.885000.43.74.1TF13.338356.33871338.2227037099800.481579842237171625225245WETM
2023-10-14 16:00:04FORECAST20242310350.5432.28841.414000.943.84.74TF18.54349.5471338.2227037099800.680480071208011635235275WETMH
2023-10-14 12:00:04FORECAST20242310351.24231.56841.405000.723.874.59TF19.242356.24271338.2227037099800.704909780851561645235282.5WETMH
2023-10-14 08:00:04FORECAST20242310351.24232.4541.846000.723.974.69TF19.242366.24271338.2227037099800.704909780851561645235282.5WETMH
2023-10-14 04:00:07FORECAST20242310351.63833.29642.467000.144.184.32TF19.638362.63871338.2227037099800.718300206754831645225255WETMH
2023-10-14 00:00:03FORECAST20242310338.85831.6435.249000.123.783.9TF6.858349.85871338.2227037099800.245719865520261615225240DRYM
2023-10-13 20:00:05FORECAST20242310336.26628.5832.423000.13.773.87TF4.266334.26671338.2227037099800.172370482141891615225240DRYM
2023-10-13 16:00:04FORECAST20242310338.91233.51236.212000.284.014.29TF6.912347.91271338.2227037099800.247407271801831615225240WETM
2023-10-13 12:00:04FORECAST20242310349.22646.32847.777000.274.194.46TF17.226366.22671338.2227037099800.632655438329741635225250WETMH
2023-10-13 08:00:03FORECAST20242310349.22646.32847.777000.224.134.35TF17.226362.22671338.2227037099800.632655438329741635225250WETMH
2023-10-13 04:00:06FORECAST20242310344.99644.31244.654000.034.244.27TF12.996365.99671338.2227037099800.468094004487951625215222.5WETMH