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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, October 22, 2023

[ Saturday, October 21, 2023 | Index | Today | Monday, October 23, 2023 ]

DAY 22 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/23/2023 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
MH
MEDIUM HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 50.00°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 39.29°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 44.64°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.641
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 18
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 419

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.01 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.01 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.07 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.08 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 72
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 339.21 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 102

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 5
D2: 3
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 27.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-10-23 04:00:04OBSERVATION2024221025039.2944.64500.00999999999999090.00999999999999094.074.08TF1841972339.20760493838 00.6405933428091116 35315227.5WETMH
2023-10-23 00:00:02FORECAST20242210246.68838.17442.4310004.074.07TF14.688415.68871338.2227037099800.517664383705321635315227.5WETMH
2023-10-22 12:00:01FORECAST20242210244.97837.36441.1710004.074.07TF12.978413.97871338.2227037099800.452744084601541625315225WETMH
2023-10-22 08:00:02FORECAST20242210244.88837.6741.2790004.074.07TF12.888413.88871338.2227037099800.449346892000491625315225WETMH
2023-10-22 04:00:03FORECAST20242210244.4236.91440.6670004.074.07TF12.42413.4271338.2227037099800.431746797392221625315225WETMH
2023-10-22 00:00:02FORECAST20242210244.4236.48240.4510004.074.07TF12.42406.4272339.2076049383800.431746797392221625315225WETMH
2023-10-21 20:00:02FORECAST20242210246.52638.8442.68300.007874020.007874024.074.07787402TF14.526409.52672339.2076049383800.511507151397881635315227.5WETMH
2023-10-21 16:00:01FORECAST20242210244.99637.14841.07200.007874020.007874024.074.07787402TF12.996407.99672339.2076049383800.453423946505351625315225WETMH
2023-10-21 12:00:02FORECAST20242210245.6838.17441.92700.161417410.161417414.074.23141741TF13.68408.6872339.2076049383800.479341725079551625325250WETMH
2023-10-21 08:00:02FORECAST20242210244.9638.55241.75600.251968640.261968644.074.33196864TF12.96408.9672339.2076049383800.452064361196591625325250WETMH
2023-10-21 04:00:05FORECAST20242210245.69838.10241.900.15748040.17748044.074.2474804TF13.698409.69872339.2076049383800.480025438424031625325250WETMH
2023-10-21 00:00:03FORECAST20242210246.2238.44442.33200.070866180.110866184.074.18086618TF14.22406.2272339.2076049383800.49987052456991635325255WETMH
2023-10-20 20:00:02FORECAST20242210245.53637.92241.72900.106299270.106299274.074.17629927TF13.536405.53672339.2076049383800.473874374943551625325250WETMH
2023-10-20 16:00:02FORECAST20242210243.75437.7640.75700.161417410.161417414.074.23141741TF11.754403.75472339.2076049383800.406940483889591625325250WETMH
2023-10-20 12:00:02FORECAST20242210244.90639.27242.08900.106299270.106299274.074.17629927TF12.906405.90672339.2076049383800.450026041695591625325250WETMH
2023-10-20 08:00:03FORECAST20242210243.86237.72440.79300.133858340.133858344.074.20385834TF11.862402.86272339.2076049383800.410940611577781625325250WETMH
2023-10-20 04:00:05FORECAST20242210245.06838.7541.90900.019685050.019685054.074.08968505TF13.068404.06872339.2076049383800.456144739612641625315225WETMH
2023-10-20 00:00:02FORECAST20242210244.07837.83240.95500.007874020.007874024.074.07787402TF12.078399.07872339.2076049383800.418968305764181625315225WETMH
2023-10-19 20:00:03FORECAST20242210243.0737.09440.08200.019685050.039685054.074.10968505TF11.07396.0772339.2076049383800.381847485498951625215222.5WETMH
2023-10-19 16:00:03FORECAST20242210243.82638.01240.91900.015748040.025748044.074.09574804TF11.826395.82672339.2076049383800.40960618457741625215222.5WETMH
2023-10-19 12:00:02FORECAST20242210243.17838.340.739000.014.074.08TF11.178393.17872339.2076049383800.385779644511551625215222.5WETMH
2023-10-19 08:00:02FORECAST20242210242.40437.56239.98300.015748040.025748044.074.09574804TF10.404392.40472339.2076049383800.357881787504791625215222.5WETM
2023-10-19 04:00:04FORECAST20242210243.5239.45241.48600.015748040.025748044.074.09574804TF11.52395.5272339.2076049383800.398307287578771625215222.5WETMH
2023-10-19 00:00:03FORECAST20242210243.35837.8540.60400.031496080.041496084.074.11149608TF11.358391.35872339.2076049383800.392359205778351625215222.5WETMH
2023-10-18 20:00:03FORECAST20242210243.37637.38240.37900.047244120.047244124.074.11724412TF11.376392.37672339.2076049383800.393018891419291625215222.5WETMH
2023-10-18 16:00:03FORECAST20242210242.74637.11239.92900.102362260.102362264.074.17236226TF10.746389.74672339.2076049383800.370125401572361625225245WETM
2023-10-18 12:00:03FORECAST20242210243.26836.539.88400.059055150.059055154.074.12905515TF11.268397.26872339.2076049383800.389065449773261625215222.5WETM
2023-10-18 08:00:04FORECAST20242210242.00836.35639.18200.070866180.070866184.074.14086618TF10.008392.00872339.2076049383800.343886123935561625215222.5WETM
2023-10-18 04:00:05FORECAST20242210243.03439.0241.02700.007874020.007874024.074.07787402TF11.034397.03472339.2076049383800.38053944685771625215222.5WETMH
2023-10-18 00:00:03FORECAST20242210244.22239.18241.70200.07874020.08874024.034.1187402TF12.222396.22272339.2076049383800.424339124122051625215222.5WETMH
2023-10-17 20:00:03FORECAST20242210243.55637.8540.70300.055118140.0651181444.06511814TF11.556391.55672339.2076049383800.399632351108361625215222.5WETMH
2023-10-17 16:00:03FORECAST20242210243.2538.8441.04500.086614220.0866142244.08661422TF11.25395.2572339.2076049383800.388407645535411625215222.5WETMH
2023-10-17 12:00:04FORECAST20242210243.80839.21841.51300.133858340.1338583444.13385834TF11.808390.80872339.2076049383800.408939362453371625225245WETMH
2023-10-17 08:00:03FORECAST20242210243.28639.03841.16200.11811030.11811034.024.1381103TF11.286391.28672339.2076049383800.389723572046351625225245WETMH
2023-10-17 04:00:05FORECAST20242210241.93634.82638.38100.11811030.118110344.1181103TF9.936394.93672339.2076049383800.34136359964341625225245WETM
2023-10-17 00:00:03FORECAST20242210241.7232.23436.97700.177165450.217165454.094.30716545TF9.72380.7272339.2076049383800.333838798948681625225245WETM
2023-10-16 20:00:03FORECAST20242210241.61231.80236.70700.173228440.213228444.044.25322844TF9.612386.61272339.2076049383800.330101058974731625225245WETM
2023-10-16 16:00:03FORECAST20242210242.1732.03637.10300.129921330.169921334.024.18992133TF10.17389.1772339.2076049383800.34958711392661625225245WETM
2023-10-16 12:00:04FORECAST20242210241.97232.34237.15700.031496080.031496084.024.05149608TF9.972395.97272339.2076049383800.342623985042761625215222.5WETM
2023-10-16 08:00:04FORECAST20242210238.35431.0134.68200.015748040.015748043.913.92574804TF6.354374.35472339.2076049383800.226544235803621615215220DRYL
2023-10-16 04:00:05FORECAST20242210238.9332.84635.88800.090551230.090551233.83.89055123TF6.93379.9372339.2076049383800.243417996772041615225240DRYM
2023-10-16 00:00:03FORECAST20242210239.27233.83636.5540003.843.84TF7.272377.27272339.2076049383800.253748787713621625215222.5DRYL
2023-10-15 20:00:06FORECAST20242210240.08233.96237.0220003.783.78TF8.082369.08272339.2076049383800.279103411656941625215222.5DRYL
2023-10-15 16:00:03FORECAST20242210240.22632.55836.3920.420670643587120.503937280.503937284.024.52393728TF8.226372.22672339.483871029120.142810898513270.283736408375041625234254WETM
2023-10-15 12:00:03FORECAST20242210239.8331.96435.89700.492126250.492126254.14.59212625TF7.83371.8372339.2076049383800.271085159773611625235267.5WETM
2023-10-15 08:00:03FORECAST20242210239.99231.71235.85200.535433360.535433364.184.71543336TF7.992370.99272339.2076049383800.276226567773431625235267.5WETM
2023-10-15 04:00:06FORECAST20242210239.14631.1935.16800.007874020.007874024.224.22787402TF7.146370.14672339.2076049383800.249916162221751625215222.5WETM
2023-10-15 00:00:04FORECAST20242210239.72233.04436.38300.283464720.423464723.84.22346472TF7.722379.72272339.2076049383800.267684240045771625225245WETM
2023-10-14 20:00:03FORECAST20242210241.32434.37637.8500.291338740.401338743.74.10133874TF9.324380.32472339.2076049383800.32021708183991625225245WETM
2023-10-14 16:00:04FORECAST20242210238.31833.90836.11300.322834820.942834823.84.74283482TF6.318368.31872339.2076049383800.225511976318731615235260WETM
2023-10-14 12:00:03FORECAST20242210239.27234.55636.91400.181102460.721102463.874.59110246TF7.272374.27272339.2076049383800.253748787713621625235267.5WETM
2023-10-14 08:00:04FORECAST20242210240.06434.32237.19300.188976480.718976483.974.68897648TF8.064384.06472339.2076049383800.278526880553031625235267.5WETM
2023-10-14 04:00:07FORECAST20242210244.16836.6840.42400.070866180.140866184.184.32086618TF12.168380.16872339.2076049383800.422323364280661625225245WETMH
2023-10-14 00:00:03FORECAST20242210244.13234.9739.55100.062992160.122992163.783.90299216TF12.132380.13272339.2076049383800.420980650196611625225245DRYM
2023-10-13 20:00:05FORECAST20242210242.38632.59437.4900.062992160.102992163.773.87299216TF10.386367.38672339.2076049383800.357241289307841625225245DRYM
2023-10-13 16:00:04FORECAST20242210246.81435.97841.39600.283464720.283464724.014.29346472TF14.814377.81472339.2076049383800.522450506265351635225250WETMH
2023-10-13 12:00:04FORECAST20242210262.34841.61251.9800.251968640.331968644.134.46196864TF30.348386.34872339.2076049383800.938016998181071655225260WETMH
2023-10-13 08:00:03FORECAST20242210262.34840.98251.66500.204724520.314724524.044.35472452TF30.348382.34872339.2076049383800.938016998181071655225260WETMH
2023-10-13 04:00:06FORECAST20242210255.9438.60647.273000.14.174.27TF23.94389.9472339.2076049383800.822894122526321645225255WETMH
2023-10-13 00:00:04FORECAST20242210239.32630.5634.943000.174.464.63TF7.326362.32672339.2076049383800.255400725152691625225245WETM
2023-10-12 20:00:04FORECAST20242210238.9335.67237.301000.174.434.6TF6.93359.9372339.2076049383800.243417996772041615225240WETM
2023-10-12 16:00:04FORECAST20242210242.65641.6342.143000.024.374.39TF10.656363.65672339.2076049383800.366890029640151625215222.5WETMH
2023-10-12 12:00:04FORECAST20242210248.244.90646.553000.024.564.58TF16.2371.272339.2076049383800.574734134673921635215225WETMH
2023-10-12 08:00:04FORECAST20242210248.39843.59245.995000.024.64.62TF16.398386.39872339.2076049383800.582118655224711635215225WETMH
2023-10-12 04:00:06FORECAST20242210240.51439.43439.974000.024.594.61TF8.514365.51472339.2076049383800.29311122032351625215222.5WETM