Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, October 2, 2023

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DAY 2 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/03/2023 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 43.81°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 36.77°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 40.29°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.185 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 12 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 291 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 1.46 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.46 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.05 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.51 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 92 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 358.14 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 82 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 4 D2: 2 D3: 4 D4: 5 D5: 2 HSdry: 70.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2023-10-03 04:00:05	OBSERVATION	2024	2	82	43.80998	36.77	40.28999	0	1.46	1.46	6.05	7.51	T	T	11.80998	290.80998	92	358.13969574323	0	0.18453749372021	16	1	4	2	4	5	2	70	WET	H
2023-10-03 00:00:01	FORECAST	2024	2	82	44.348	37.922	41.135	0	0.67322871	0.67322871	6.05	6.72322871	T	T	12.348	291.348	91	357.22687332289	0	0.19775512435304	16	1	4	2	3	5	2	52.5	WET	H
2023-10-02 12:00:01	FORECAST	2024	2	82	43.97	36.842	40.406	0	0.77165396	0.77165396	6.05	6.82165396	T	T	11.97	290.97	91	357.22687332289	0	0.18841023238928	16	1	4	2	3	5	2	52.5	WET	H
2023-10-02 08:00:02	FORECAST	2024	2	82	44.474	37.688	41.081	0	0.99212652	0.99212652	6.05	7.04212652	T	T	12.474	291.474	91	357.22687332289	0	0.2009311567346	16	1	4	2	4	5	2	70	WET	H
2023-10-02 04:00:04	FORECAST	2024	2	82	44.564	37.742	41.153	0	1.08267775	1.08267775	6.05	7.13267775	T	T	12.564	291.564	91	357.22687332289	0	0.20321833725459	16	1	4	2	4	5	2	70	WET	H
2023-10-02 00:00:02	FORECAST	2024	2	82	43.466	36.608	40.037	0	0.90944931	0.90944931	6.05	6.95944931	T	T	11.466	287.466	92	358.13969574323	0	0.17638134384031	16	1	4	2	3	5	2	52.5	WET	H
2023-10-01 20:00:02	FORECAST	2024	2	82	43.556	36.428	39.992	0	0.75196891	0.75196891	6.05	6.80196891	T	T	11.556	288.556	92	358.13969574323	0	0.17849304576977	16	1	4	2	3	5	2	52.5	WET	H
2023-10-01 16:00:02	FORECAST	2024	2	82	44.924	36.482	40.703	0	0.51968532	0.51968532	6.05	6.56968532	T	T	12.924	289.924	92	358.13969574323	0	0.21252093430004	16	1	4	2	3	5	2	52.5	WET	H
2023-10-01 12:00:02	FORECAST	2024	2	82	44.186	36.824	40.505	0	0.44881914	0.44881914	6.05	6.49881914	T	T	12.186	289.186	92	358.13969574323	0	0.19371643168679	16	1	4	2	2	5	2	35	WET	H
2023-10-01 08:00:01	FORECAST	2024	2	82	44.042	36.248	40.145	0	0.38582698	0.38582698	6.05	6.43582698	T	F	12.042	289.042	92	358.13969574323	0	0.19016894273566	16	1	4	2	2	5	2	35	WET	MH
2023-10-01 04:00:04	FORECAST	2024	2	82	44.312	36.68	40.496	0	0.33070884	0.33070884	6.05	6.38070884	T	F	12.312	290.312	92	358.13969574323	0	0.19685327686073	16	1	4	2	2	5	2	35	WET	MH
2023-10-01 00:00:02	FORECAST	2024	2	82	43.304	36.104	39.704	0	0.3149608	0.3149608	6.05	6.3649608	T	F	11.304	292.304	92	358.13969574323	0	0.17262020269766	16	1	4	2	2	5	2	35	WET	M
2023-09-30 20:00:02	FORECAST	2024	2	82	42.908	36.914	39.911	0	0.36220492	0.36220492	6.05	6.41220492	T	F	10.908	290.908	92	358.13969574323	0	0.16364288675041	16	1	4	2	2	5	2	35	WET	M
2023-09-30 16:00:02	FORECAST	2024	2	82	44.204	36.716	40.46	0	0.40551203	0.40551203	6.05	6.45551203	T	F	12.204	293.204	92	358.13969574323	0	0.19416268125197	16	1	4	2	2	5	2	35	WET	MH
2023-09-30 12:00:02	FORECAST	2024	2	82	44.906	37.292	41.099	0	0.36220492	0.36220492	6.05	6.41220492	T	F	12.906	292.906	92	358.13969574323	0	0.21204998813819	16	1	4	2	2	5	2	35	WET	MH
2023-09-30 08:00:03	FORECAST	2024	2	82	44.51	36.59	40.55	0	0.46063017	0.46063017	6.05	6.51063017	T	T	12.51	292.51	92	358.13969574323	0	0.20184417355491	16	1	4	2	2	5	2	35	WET	H
2023-09-30 04:00:04	FORECAST	2024	2	82	45.176	38.102	41.639	0	0.31889781	0.31889781	6.05	6.36889781	T	F	13.176	296.176	92	358.13969574323	0	0.21917793792569	16	1	4	2	2	5	2	35	WET	MH
2023-09-30 00:00:02	FORECAST	2024	2	82	45.878	38.156	42.017	0	0.20866153	0.20866153	6.05	6.25866153	T	F	13.878	297.878	92	358.13969574323	0	0.23834045943518	16	1	4	2	2	5	2	35	WET	MH
2023-09-29 20:00:02	FORECAST	2024	2	82	45.176	37.922	41.549	0	0.2362206	0.2362206	6.05	6.2862206	T	F	13.176	292.176	92	358.13969574323	0	0.21917793792569	16	1	4	2	2	5	2	35	WET	MH
2023-09-29 16:00:03	FORECAST	2024	2	82	44.294	37.04	40.667	0	0.31889781	0.31889781	6.05	6.36889781	T	F	12.294	290.294	92	358.13969574323	0	0.19640328649789	16	1	4	2	2	5	2	35	WET	MH
2023-09-29 12:00:03	FORECAST	2024	2	82	44.438	37.832	41.135	0	0.44488213	0.44488213	6.05	6.49488213	T	F	12.438	290.438	92	358.13969574323	0	0.20002061713538	16	1	4	2	2	5	2	35	WET	MH
2023-09-29 08:00:03	FORECAST	2024	2	82	43.412	37.832	40.622	0	0.37795296	0.37795296	6.06	6.43795296	T	F	11.412	290.412	92	358.13969574323	0	0.17512192343049	16	1	4	2	2	5	2	35	WET	MH
2023-09-29 04:00:06	FORECAST	2024	2	82	45.932	38.246	42.089	0	0.24409462	0.24409462	6.05	6.29409462	T	F	13.932	294.932	92	358.13969574323	0	0.23985150525383	16	1	4	2	2	5	2	35	WET	MH
2023-09-29 00:00:03	FORECAST	2024	2	82	47.48	38.48	42.98	0	0.18897648	0.18897648	5.71	5.89897648	T	F	15.48	302.48	92	358.13969574323	0	0.28530150237215	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	MH
2023-09-28 20:00:02	FORECAST	2024	2	82	46.832	38.678	42.755	0	0.18503947	0.18503947	5.8	5.98503947	T	F	14.832	297.832	92	358.13969574323	0	0.26578675849674	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	MH
2023-09-28 16:00:03	FORECAST	2024	2	82	47.516	39.938	43.727	0	0.20078751	0.20078751	5.8	6.00078751	T	F	15.516	301.516	92	358.13969574323	0	0.2864053350069	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	MH
2023-09-28 12:00:02	FORECAST	2024	2	82	47.588	39.038	43.313	0	0.22440957	0.22440957	5.8	6.02440957	T	F	15.588	298.588	92	358.13969574323	0	0.28861905420793	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	MH
2023-09-28 08:00:03	FORECAST	2024	2	82	47.03	36.968	41.999	0	0.21653555	0.21653555	5.78	5.99653555	T	F	15.03	298.03	92	358.13969574323	0	0.27167723545611	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	MH
2023-09-28 04:00:07	FORECAST	2024	2	82	47.516	40.478	43.997	0	0.20472452	0.20472452	5.79	5.99472452	T	F	15.516	304.516	92	358.13969574323	0	0.2864053350069	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	MH
2023-09-28 00:00:02	FORECAST	2024	2	82	48.884	39.29	44.087	0	0.20866153	0.20866153	5.75	5.95866153	T	F	16.884	302.884	92	358.13969574323	0	0.32977102266185	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	MH
2023-09-27 20:00:02	FORECAST	2024	2	82	48.254	38.336	43.295	0	0.18110246	0.18110246	5.63	5.81110246	T	F	16.254	299.254	92	358.13969574323	0	0.30946743987807	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	MH
2023-09-27 16:00:05	FORECAST	2024	2	82	47.552	39.254	43.403	0	0.16535442	0.16535442	5.71	5.87535442	T	F	15.552	299.552	92	358.13969574323	0	0.28751118826829	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	MH
2023-09-27 12:00:03	FORECAST	2024	2	82	49.766	38.534	44.15	0	0	0	5.65	5.65	T	F	17.766	306.766	92	358.13969574323	0	0.35904739995277	16	2	4	2	1	5	2	20	WET	MH
2023-09-27 08:00:03	FORECAST	2024	2	82	47.498	35.474	41.486	0	0	0	5.37	5.37	T	F	15.498	294.498	92	358.13969574323	0	0.28585316561665	16	2	4	2	1	5	2	20	WET	MH
2023-09-27 04:00:05	FORECAST	2024	2	82	49.442	40.91	45.176	0	0	0	5.23	5.23	T	F	17.442	298.442	92	358.13969574323	0	0.34818524710544	16	2	4	2	1	5	2	20	WET	MH
2023-09-27 00:00:03	FORECAST	2024	2	82	50.684	40.64	45.662	0	0	0	5.14	5.14	T	F	18.684	302.684	92	358.13969574323	0	0.39042113493484	16	2	4	2	1	5	2	20	WET	MH
2023-09-26 20:00:03	FORECAST	2024	2	82	49.568	40.352	44.96	0	0	0	5.27	5.27	T	F	17.568	295.568	92	358.13969574323	0	0.35239522483829	16	2	4	2	1	5	2	20	WET	MH
2023-09-26 16:00:04	FORECAST	2024	2	82	51.71	39.812	45.761	0	0.16535442	0.16535442	5.03	5.19535442	T	F	19.71	299.71	92	358.13969574323	0	0.42634070522717	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	MH
2023-09-26 12:00:03	FORECAST	2024	2	82	51.512	40.046	45.779	0	0.25984266	0.25984266	4.79	5.04984266	T	F	19.512	304.512	92	358.13969574323	0	0.41935118133958	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	MH
2023-09-26 08:00:04	FORECAST	2024	2	82	53.204	40.55	46.877	0	0.2362206	0.2362206	4.7	4.9362206	T	F	21.204	312.204	92	358.13969574323	0	0.47967406645536	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	MH
2023-09-26 04:00:05	FORECAST	2024	2	82	50.72	41.018	45.869	0	0.26377967	0.26377967	4.9	5.16377967	T	F	18.72	304.72	92	358.13969574323	0	0.39166766928747	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	MH
2023-09-26 00:00:04	FORECAST	2024	2	82	48.362	38.786	43.574	0	0.33464585	0.33464585	4.62	4.95464585	T	F	16.362	304.362	92	358.13969574323	0	0.31290927446636	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	MH
2023-09-25 20:00:03	FORECAST	2024	2	82	47.138	39.452	43.295	0	0.34251987	0.34251987	4.83	5.17251987	T	F	15.138	300.138	92	358.13969574323	0	0.27491735644485	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	MH
2023-09-25 16:00:04	FORECAST	2024	2	82	54.122	40.694	47.408	0	0	0	4.68	4.68	T	F	22.122	307.122	92	358.13969574323	0	0.51268908133457	16	3	4	2	1	5	2	22.5	WET	MH
2023-09-25 12:00:03	FORECAST	2024	2	82	50.756	43.052	46.904	0	0.16535442	0.16535442	5.02	5.18535442	T	F	18.756	308.756	92	358.13969574323	0	0.39291531658953	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	MH
2023-09-25 08:00:04	FORECAST	2024	2	82	50.576	41.936	46.256	0	0.15354339	0.15354339	5.18	5.33354339	T	F	18.576	304.576	92	358.13969574323	0	0.38668833062208	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	MH
2023-09-25 04:00:06	FORECAST	2024	2	82	51.134	43.322	47.228	0	0.32677183	0.32677183	5.02	5.34677183	T	F	19.134	303.134	92	358.13969574323	0	0.40607972934813	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	MH
2023-09-25 00:00:06	FORECAST	2024	2	82	47.75	39.488	43.619	0	0.44094512	0.44094512	3.66	4.10094512	T	F	15.75	303.75	92	358.13969574323	0	0.2936291418518	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	MH
2023-09-24 20:00:04	FORECAST	2024	2	82	46.724	37.958	42.341	0	0.47637821	0.47637821	3.95	4.42637821	T	F	14.724	298.724	92	358.13969574323	0	0.26260124547751	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	MH
2023-09-24 16:00:04	FORECAST	2024	2	82	49.748	40.172	44.96	0	0.35826791	0.35826791	4.05	4.40826791	T	F	17.748	311.748	92	358.13969574323	0	0.35844085229266	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	MH
2023-09-24 12:00:05	FORECAST	2024	2	82	59.936	44.906	52.421	0	0	0	4.47	4.47	T	F	27.936	329.936	92	358.13969574323	0	0.71093534078146	16	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	WET	MH
2023-09-24 08:00:04	FORECAST	2024	2	82	59.846	43.592	51.719	0	0	0	4.34	4.34	T	F	27.846	324.846	92	358.13969574323	0	0.70815492167704	16	4	4	2	1	5	2	25	WET	MH
2023-09-24 04:00:05	FORECAST	2024	2	82	58.838	43.16	50.999	0	0	0	4.46	4.46	T	F	26.838	319.838	92	358.13969574323	0	0.67619946425008	16	3	4	2	1	5	2	22.5	WET	MH
2023-09-24 00:00:02	FORECAST	2024	2	82	47.21	33.53	40.37	0	0.03149608	1.59149608	4.83	6.42149608	T	T	15.21	279.21	92	358.13969574323	0	0.27708795218686	16	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2023-09-23 20:00:04	FORECAST	2024	2	82	46.202	32.18	39.191	0	0.03149608	1.54149608	5.05	6.59149608	T	T	14.202	281.202	92	358.13969574323	0	0.24748440430513	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	H
2023-09-23 16:00:04	FORECAST	2024	2	82	47.732	32.414	40.073	0	0	1.49	5.09	6.58	T	T	15.732	285.732	92	358.13969574323	0	0.29307048378836	16	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	H
2023-09-23 12:00:04	FORECAST	2024	2	82	57.776	37.508	47.642	0	0.21653555	0.37653555	4.6	4.97653555	T	F	25.776	303.776	92	358.13969574323	0	0.6410718640188	16	3	4	2	2	5	2	45	WET	MH
2023-09-23 08:00:05	FORECAST	2024	2	82	57.776	39.704	48.74	0	0	0.13	4.44	4.57	T	F	25.776	311.776	92	358.13969574323	0	0.6410718640188	16	3	4	2	2	5	2	45	WET	MH
2023-09-23 04:00:07	FORECAST	2024	2	82	50.054	34.898	42.476	0	0.25984266	0.73984266	4.19	4.92984266	T	F	18.054	297.054	92	358.13969574323	0	0.36879954146062	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	WET	MH
2023-09-23 00:00:05	FORECAST	2024	2	82	39.38	36.806	38.093	0	0	0.46	4.93	5.39	T	F	7.38	292.38	92	358.13969574323	0	0.097122123939742	16	1	4	2	2	5	2	35	WET	M
2023-09-22 20:00:06	FORECAST	2024	2	82	40.802	38.822	39.812	0	0	0.42	4.98	5.4	T	F	8.802	300.802	92	358.13969574323	0	0.12106167319253	16	1	4	2	2	5	2	35	WET	M
2023-09-22 16:00:05	FORECAST	2024	2	82	44.366	38.354	41.36	0	0	0.05	4.26	4.31	T	F	12.366	293.366	92	358.13969574323	0	0.19820698082906	16	1	4	2	1	5	2	17.5	WET	MH
2023-09-22 12:00:05	FORECAST	2024	2	82	43.16	40.064	41.612	0	0	0.85	3.44	4.29	T	F	11.16	299.16	92	358.13969574323	0	0.16932012358115	16	1	4	2	3	5	2	52.5	WET	MH
2023-09-22 08:00:05	FORECAST	2024	2	82	43.16	40.064	41.612	0	0	0.75	3.78	4.53	T	F	11.16	298.16	92	358.13969574323	0	0.16932012358115	16	1	4	2	3	5	2	52.5	WET	MH
2023-09-22 04:00:06	FORECAST	2024	2	82	39.956	39.866	39.911	0	0	0.95	3.55	4.5	T	F	7.956	290.956	92	358.13969574323	0	0.10636467786138	16	1	4	2	3	5	2	52.5	WET	M