Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, October 16, 2023

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DAY 16 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/17/2023 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 55.93°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 33.70°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 44.81°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.753 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 24 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 352 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.89 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.37 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.37 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.74 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 78 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 345.04 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 96 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 4 D1: 4 D2: 2 D3: 4 D4: 5 D5: 2 HSdry: 100.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2023-10-17 04:00:04	OBSERVATION	2024	16	96	55.92992	33.69992	44.81492	0	0.88999999999999	1.37	4.37	5.74	T	F	23.92992	351.92992	78	345.03906033777	0	0.75307329880804	16	4	4	2	4	5	2	100	WET	MH
2023-10-17 00:00:01	FORECAST	2024	16	96	46.112	32.09	39.101	0	0.9842525	1.4642525	4.37	5.8342525	T	F	14.112	342.112	77	344.07636079638	0	0.40878049923696	16	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	M
2023-10-16 12:00:02	FORECAST	2024	16	96	47.804	34.286	41.045	0	0.91338632	1.39338632	4.37	5.76338632	T	F	15.804	343.804	77	344.07636079638	0	0.47089519360134	16	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	MH
2023-10-16 08:00:02	FORECAST	2024	16	96	45.338	33.134	39.236	0	0.79921303	1.27921303	4.37	5.64921303	T	F	13.338	341.338	77	344.07636079638	0	0.38101885555042	16	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	M
2023-10-16 04:00:04	FORECAST	2024	16	96	45.158	34.286	39.722	0	0.69291376	1.17291376	4.37	5.54291376	T	F	13.158	341.158	77	344.07636079638	0	0.37464381228004	16	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	M
2023-10-16 00:00:02	FORECAST	2024	16	96	47.21	34.268	40.739	0	0.76771695	1.20771695	4.37	5.57771695	T	F	15.21	335.21	78	345.03906033777	0	0.44892823363322	16	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	MH
2023-10-15 20:00:02	FORECAST	2024	16	96	46.202	33.944	40.073	0	0.71653582	1.13653582	4.37	5.50653582	T	F	14.202	335.202	78	345.03906033777	0	0.412041443113	16	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	MH
2023-10-15 16:00:01	FORECAST	2024	16	96	46.994	34.61	40.802	0	0.94881941	1.36881941	4.37	5.73881941	T	F	14.994	335.994	78	345.03906033777	0	0.4409753350862	16	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	MH
2023-10-15 12:00:02	FORECAST	2024	16	96	46.346	34.268	40.307	0	1.03937064	1.45937064	4.37	5.82937064	T	F	14.346	335.346	78	345.03906033777	0	0.41727151656454	16	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	MH
2023-10-15 08:00:01	FORECAST	2024	16	96	47.678	34.718	41.198	0	1.12204785	1.53204785	4.37	5.90204785	T	F	15.678	335.678	78	345.03906033777	0	0.46622584051523	16	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	MH
2023-10-15 04:00:04	FORECAST	2024	16	96	47.912	35.276	41.594	0	1.15748094	1.58748094	4.37	5.95748094	T	T	15.912	336.912	78	345.03906033777	0	0.47490070794763	16	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2023-10-15 00:00:03	FORECAST	2024	16	96	47.858	36.608	42.233	0	0.88976426	1.16976426	4.37	5.53976426	T	F	15.858	338.858	78	345.03906033777	0	0.47289760820754	16	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	MH
2023-10-14 20:00:02	FORECAST	2024	16	96	47.696	36.014	41.855	0	0.81496107	1.07496107	4.37	5.44496107	T	F	15.696	338.696	78	345.03906033777	0	0.46689262151009	16	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	MH
2023-10-14 16:00:02	FORECAST	2024	16	96	46.526	34.79	40.658	0	0.88582725	1.15582725	4.37	5.52582725	T	F	14.526	335.526	78	345.03906033777	0	0.42382964141237	16	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	MH
2023-10-14 12:00:02	FORECAST	2024	16	96	48.2	37.31	42.755	0	0.95669343	1.22669343	4.37	5.59669343	T	F	16.2	338.2	78	345.03906033777	0	0.48559339097126	16	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	MH
2023-10-14 08:00:03	FORECAST	2024	16	96	47.768	37.904	42.836	0	1.0236226	1.3436226	4.37	5.7136226	T	F	15.768	338.768	78	345.03906033777	0	0.46956065607333	16	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	MH
2023-10-14 04:00:05	FORECAST	2024	16	96	47.966	36.716	42.341	0	1.11811084	1.47811084	4.37	5.84811084	T	F	15.966	337.966	78	345.03906033777	0	0.47690444232532	16	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	MH
2023-10-14 00:00:02	FORECAST	2024	16	96	47.48	36.896	42.188	0	0.87007921	1.12007921	4.4	5.52007921	T	F	15.48	338.48	78	345.03906033777	0	0.45889791448729	16	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	MH
2023-10-13 20:00:03	FORECAST	2024	16	96	47.048	35.132	41.09	0	0.83464612	1.10464612	4.41	5.51464612	T	F	15.048	333.048	78	345.03906033777	0	0.44296145782033	16	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	MH
2023-10-13 16:00:03	FORECAST	2024	16	96	47.264	36.878	42.071	0	0.94881941	1.33881941	4.41	5.74881941	T	F	15.264	335.264	78	345.03906033777	0	0.45091979672134	16	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	MH
2023-10-13 12:00:03	FORECAST	2024	16	96	47.48	40.352	43.916	0	1.13385888	1.44385888	4.41	5.85385888	T	F	15.48	336.48	78	345.03906033777	0	0.45889791448729	16	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	MH
2023-10-13 08:00:02	FORECAST	2024	16	96	46.652	40.64	43.646	0	1.1417329	1.4117329	4.36	5.7717329	T	F	14.652	333.652	78	345.03906033777	0	0.42843302608587	16	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	MH
2023-10-13 04:00:05	FORECAST	2024	16	96	48.11	39.722	43.916	0	1.08267775	1.52267775	4.36	5.88267775	T	F	16.11	339.11	78	345.03906033777	0	0.48225045214212	16	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	MH
2023-10-13 00:00:03	FORECAST	2024	16	96	46.724	38.462	42.593	0	0.93700838	1.73700838	4.37	6.10700838	T	T	14.724	332.724	78	345.03906033777	0	0.43106795190073	16	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2023-10-12 20:00:03	FORECAST	2024	16	96	46.58	40.712	43.646	0	0.9448824	1.6948824	4.4	6.0948824	T	T	14.58	335.58	78	345.03906033777	0	0.42580128641456	16	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2023-10-12 16:00:03	FORECAST	2024	16	96	47.48	39.884	43.682	0	0.93307137	1.63307137	4.41	6.04307137	T	T	15.48	335.48	78	345.03906033777	0	0.45889791448729	16	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2023-10-12 12:00:03	FORECAST	2024	16	96	48.434	37.832	43.133	0	1.15354393	1.80354393	4.37	6.17354393	T	T	16.434	335.434	78	345.03906033777	0	0.49428918520081	16	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2023-10-12 08:00:03	FORECAST	2024	16	96	50.036	38.3	44.168	0	1.18504001	1.85504001	4.38	6.23504001	T	T	18.036	338.036	78	345.03906033777	0	0.55367884416449	16	3	4	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2023-10-12 04:00:04	FORECAST	2024	16	96	49.838	38.84	44.339	0	1.23622114	1.87622114	4.42	6.29622114	T	T	17.838	339.838	78	345.03906033777	0	0.5463764328587	16	3	4	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2023-10-12 00:00:03	FORECAST	2024	16	96	47.876	39.596	43.736	0	0.71259881	1.27259881	4.5	5.77259881	T	F	15.876	324.876	78	345.03906033777	0	0.47356523448752	16	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	MH
2023-10-11 20:00:03	FORECAST	2024	16	96	50.414	40.118	45.266	0	0.77165396	1.33165396	4.55	5.88165396	T	F	18.414	335.414	78	345.03906033777	0	0.56756734386572	16	3	4	2	4	5	2	90	WET	MH
2023-10-11 16:00:03	FORECAST	2024	16	96	48.74	41.756	45.248	0	1.06692971	1.70692971	4.53	6.23692971	T	T	16.74	333.74	78	345.03906033777	0	0.5056640645377	16	3	4	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2023-10-11 12:00:04	FORECAST	2024	16	96	45.608	39.416	42.512	0	1.50393782	2.14393782	4.49	6.63393782	T	T	13.608	330.608	78	345.03906033777	0	0.39064174887516	16	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2023-10-11 08:00:03	FORECAST	2024	16	96	47.354	40.28	43.817	0	1.36220546	1.97220546	4.35	6.32220546	T	T	15.354	334.354	78	345.03906033777	0	0.4542417913162	16	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2023-10-11 04:00:05	FORECAST	2024	16	96	45.068	37.85	41.459	0	1.92519789	2.78519789	4.38	7.16519789	T	T	13.068	325.068	78	345.03906033777	0	0.37146896560428	16	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2023-10-11 00:00:04	FORECAST	2024	16	96	44.474	35.96	40.217	0	1.53149689	2.40149689	4.18	6.58149689	T	T	12.474	324.474	78	345.03906033777	0	0.35074275827543	16	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2023-10-10 20:00:02	FORECAST	2024	16	96	46.202	36.644	41.423	0	1.49212679	2.40212679	4.25	6.65212679	T	T	14.202	325.202	78	345.03906033777	0	0.412041443113	16	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2023-10-10 16:00:03	FORECAST	2024	16	96	45.5	37.4	41.45	0	0.89370127	1.77370127	4.41	6.18370127	T	T	13.5	322.5	78	345.03906033777	0	0.38678418482359	16	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2023-10-10 12:00:03	FORECAST	2024	16	96	45.536	36.68	41.108	0	1.07480373	2.53480373	4.57	7.10480373	T	T	13.536	324.536	78	345.03906033777	0	0.38806881833245	16	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2023-10-10 08:00:03	FORECAST	2024	16	96	45.95	37.148	41.549	0	1.1023628	2.5423628	4.55	7.0923628	T	T	13.95	324.95	78	345.03906033777	0	0.40292682455909	16	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2023-10-10 04:00:05	FORECAST	2024	16	96	43.916	38.696	41.306	0	1.36220546	2.53220546	4.68	7.21220546	T	T	11.916	324.916	78	345.03906033777	0	0.33166776171802	16	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2023-10-10 00:00:05	FORECAST	2024	16	96	42.818	38.192	40.505	0	1.27559124	2.37559124	4.37	6.74559124	T	T	10.818	317.818	78	345.03906033777	0	0.29541580696546	16	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2023-10-09 20:00:04	FORECAST	2024	16	96	44.492	39.164	41.828	0	1.26771722	2.42771722	4.43	6.85771722	T	T	12.492	323.492	78	345.03906033777	0	0.35136470754787	16	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2023-10-09 16:00:04	FORECAST	2024	16	96	50	40.946	45.473	0	0.37007894	1.93007894	4.45	6.38007894	T	T	18	331	78	345.03906033777	0	0.55235241224546	16	3	4	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2023-10-09 12:00:04	FORECAST	2024	16	96	47.606	39.65	43.628	0	0.95669343	1.85669343	3.91	5.76669343	T	F	15.606	336.606	78	345.03906033777	0	0.46355968299246	16	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	MH
2023-10-09 08:00:03	FORECAST	2024	16	96	46.634	36.986	41.81	0	0.95275642	1.80275642	3.81	5.61275642	T	F	14.634	321.634	78	345.03906033777	0	0.42777478799029	16	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	MH
2023-10-09 04:00:07	FORECAST	2024	16	96	45.5	35.456	40.478	0	0.5905515	1.0305515	3.96	4.9905515	T	F	13.5	321.5	78	345.03906033777	0	0.38678418482359	16	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	MH
2023-10-09 00:00:04	FORECAST	2024	16	96	43.484	38.696	41.09	0	0.89763828	1.63763828	4.1	5.73763828	T	F	11.484	307.484	78	345.03906033777	0	0.31719085581783	16	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	MH
2023-10-08 20:00:03	FORECAST	2024	16	96	43.88	38.246	41.063	0	1.09842579	2.22842579	3.96	6.18842579	T	T	11.88	310.88	78	345.03906033777	0	0.33045132223672	16	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2023-10-08 16:00:04	FORECAST	2024	16	96	46.904	40.64	43.772	0	1.35433144	2.54433144	4.12	6.66433144	T	T	14.904	308.904	78	345.03906033777	0	0.4376684511389	16	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2023-10-08 12:00:04	FORECAST	2024	16	96	46.076	40.658	43.367	0	1.2204731	2.3504731	3.82	6.1704731	T	T	14.076	299.076	78	345.03906033777	0	0.40747787388742	16	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2023-10-08 08:00:03	FORECAST	2024	16	96	47.174	40.784	43.979	0	1.27952825	2.56952825	3.94	6.50952825	T	T	15.174	320.174	78	345.03906033777	0	0.44760123624522	16	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2023-10-08 04:00:06	FORECAST	2024	16	96	46.616	39.146	42.881	0	1.24803217	2.47803217	3.99	6.46803217	T	T	14.616	313.616	78	345.03906033777	0	0.42711675082108	16	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2023-10-08 00:00:03	FORECAST	2024	16	96	47.912	40.154	44.033	0	2.03937118	2.93937118	4.31	7.24937118	T	T	15.912	316.912	78	345.03906033777	0	0.47490070794763	16	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2023-10-07 20:00:04	FORECAST	2024	16	96	48.164	40.316	44.24	0	1.77559151	2.58559151	4.24	6.82559151	T	T	16.164	311.164	78	345.03906033777	0	0.48425608075834	16	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2023-10-07 16:00:04	FORECAST	2024	16	96	48.848	37.004	42.926	0	1.87007975	2.76007975	4.22	6.98007975	T	T	16.848	310.848	78	345.03906033777	0	0.50967810465677	16	3	4	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2023-10-07 12:00:04	FORECAST	2024	16	96	51.314	35.924	43.619	0	1.29133928	2.20133928	4.09	6.29133928	T	T	19.314	320.314	78	345.03906033777	0	0.60027066240643	16	3	4	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2023-10-07 08:00:04	FORECAST	2024	16	96	51.368	36.572	43.97	0	1.44881968	2.45881968	4.12	6.57881968	T	T	19.368	315.368	78	345.03906033777	0	0.60221307508667	16	3	4	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2023-10-07 04:00:05	FORECAST	2024	16	96	50.162	39.344	44.753	0	2.1653555	2.8453555	4.13	6.9753555	T	T	18.162	329.162	78	345.03906033777	0	0.55831653218115	16	3	4	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2023-10-07 00:00:05	FORECAST	2024	16	96	43.664	35.762	39.713	0	0.09842525	0.30842525	3.85	4.15842525	T	F	11.664	329.664	78	345.03906033777	0	0.32319060635802	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	M
2023-10-06 20:00:04	FORECAST	2024	16	96	42.944	35.762	39.353	0	0.09842525	0.26842525	3.81	4.07842525	T	F	10.944	315.944	78	345.03906033777	0	0.29948246388566	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	M
2023-10-06 16:00:04	FORECAST	2024	16	96	43.538	34.448	38.993	0	0.03149608	0.03149608	4.34	4.37149608	T	F	11.538	321.538	78	345.03906033777	0	0.31898583902088	16	2	4	2	1	5	2	20	WET	M
2023-10-06 12:00:05	FORECAST	2024	16	96	40.442	36.878	38.66	0	0	0.02	4.47	4.49	T	F	8.442	318.442	78	345.03906033777	0	0.22390641957935	16	1	4	2	1	5	2	17.5	WET	M
2023-10-06 08:00:04	FORECAST	2024	16	96	38.012	36.032	37.022	0	0	0.04	4.53	4.57	T	F	6.012	308.012	78	345.03906033777	0	0.16216353677408	16	1	4	2	1	5	2	17.5	WET	M
2023-10-06 04:00:06	FORECAST	2024	16	96	51.278	49.802	50.54	0	0	0	4.33	4.33	T	F	19.278	347.278	78	345.03906033777	0	0.59897433777233	16	3	4	2	1	5	2	22.5	WET	MH