MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, October 1, 2023

[ Saturday, September 30, 2023 | Index | Today | Monday, October 2, 2023 ]

DAY 1 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/02/2023 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
MH
MEDIUM HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 49.78°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 33.82°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 41.80°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.333
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 18
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 319

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.05 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.05 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 93
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 359.05 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 81

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 4
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 20.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-10-02 04:00:03OBSERVATION202418149.7800433.8199841.800010006.056.05TF17.78004318.7800493359.04905602062 00.3328812464356216 24215220WETMH
2023-10-02 00:00:01FORECAST202418147.19231.51439.3530006.056.05TF15.192316.19292358.1396957432300.259493397255191624215220WETM
2023-10-01 12:00:02FORECAST202418148.45233.5340.9910006.056.05TF16.452317.45292358.1396957432300.294172648904171624215220WETMH
2023-10-01 08:00:01FORECAST202418147.85832.03639.9470006.056.05TF15.858316.85892358.1396957432300.277558880044891624215220WETM
2023-10-01 04:00:03FORECAST202418149.31632.91841.1170006.056.05TF17.316318.31692358.1396957432300.319124162284621624215220WETMH
2023-10-01 00:00:02FORECAST202418149.87432.941.3870006.056.05TF17.874320.87493359.0490560206200.335695175844161624215220WETMH
2023-09-30 20:00:02FORECAST202418149.06432.50440.7840006.056.05TF17.064320.06493359.0490560206200.311754755587171624215220WETMH
2023-09-30 16:00:02FORECAST202418149.60433.54841.5760006.056.05TF17.604320.60493359.0490560206200.327634513466871624215220WETMH
2023-09-30 12:00:02FORECAST202418149.31633.20641.2610006.056.05TF17.316320.31693359.0490560206200.319124162284621624215220WETMH
2023-09-30 08:00:03FORECAST202418148.81233.31441.0630006.056.05TF16.812319.81293359.0490560206200.304459905737081624215220WETMH
2023-09-30 04:00:04FORECAST202418150.01835.92442.9710006.056.05TF18.018323.01893359.0490560206200.340025590507431624215220WETMH
2023-09-30 00:00:02FORECAST202418150.34235.4242.8810006.056.05TF18.342324.34293359.0490560206200.349845744178881624215220WETMH
2023-09-29 20:00:02FORECAST202418148.90235.58242.2420006.056.05TF16.902318.90293359.0490560206200.307056501287831624215220WETMH
2023-09-29 16:00:02FORECAST202418148.27234.68241.4770006.056.05TF16.272318.27293359.0490560206200.289089913789671624215220WETMH
2023-09-29 12:00:03FORECAST202418148.0234.39441.2070006.056.05TF16.02318.0293359.0490560206200.282044208707631624215220WETMH
2023-09-29 08:00:02FORECAST202418148.27233.24240.757000.016.056.06TF16.272319.27293359.0490560206200.289089913789671624215220WETMH
2023-09-29 04:00:06FORECAST202418149.58634.5242.0530006.056.05TF17.586320.58693359.0490560206200.327099927201851624215220WETMH
2023-09-29 00:00:03FORECAST202418150.4534.05242.2510005.715.71TF18.45327.4593359.0490560206200.353141964650371624215220WETMH
2023-09-28 20:00:02FORECAST202418149.38833.56641.4770005.85.8TF17.388323.38893359.0490560206200.32124306319991624215220WETMH
2023-09-28 16:00:03FORECAST202418150.88235.85243.3670005.85.8TF18.882325.88293359.0490560206200.366435088552691624215220WETMH
2023-09-28 12:00:02FORECAST202418150.14433.87242.0080005.85.8TF18.144323.14493359.0490560206200.343832107772331624215220WETMH
2023-09-28 08:00:03FORECAST202418149.38833.56641.4770005.785.78TF17.388323.38893359.0490560206200.32124306319991624215220WETMH
2023-09-28 04:00:07FORECAST202418150.75636.26643.5110005.795.79TF18.756328.75693359.0490560206200.362540516615181624215220WETMH
2023-09-28 00:00:02FORECAST202418148.63234.91641.7740005.755.75TF16.632325.63293359.0490560206200.299296246665221624215220WETMH
2023-09-27 20:00:02FORECAST202418147.80434.08840.9460005.635.63TF15.804322.80493359.0490560206200.276071545125041624215220WETMH
2023-09-27 16:00:04FORECAST202418150.0935.04242.5660005.715.71TF18.09324.0993359.0490560206200.342198777851121624215220WETMH
2023-09-27 12:00:03FORECAST202418151.76434.82643.2950005.655.65TF19.764328.76493359.0490560206200.394062304846191624215220WETMH
2023-09-27 08:00:03FORECAST202418149.20833.0841.1440005.375.37TF17.208319.20893359.0490560206200.315956869616111624215220WETMH
2023-09-27 04:00:05FORECAST202418149.08233.76441.423000.025.215.23TF17.082321.08293359.0490560206200.312278697519111624215220WETMH
2023-09-27 00:00:03FORECAST202418149.92835.67242.8000.025.125.14TF17.928323.92893359.0490560206200.337316565510581624215220WETMH
2023-09-26 20:00:03FORECAST202418149.06435.76242.413000.025.255.27TF17.064318.06493359.0490560206200.311754755587171624215220WETMH
2023-09-26 16:00:03FORECAST202418149.96434.77242.3680005.035.03TF17.964319.96493359.0490560206200.338399174064581624215220WETMH
2023-09-26 12:00:03FORECAST202418151.94435.79843.8710004.794.79TF19.944324.94493359.0490560206200.399771761913481624215220WETMH
2023-09-26 08:00:04FORECAST202418152.93437.445.1670004.74.7TF20.934330.93493359.0490560206200.431526255275551624215220WETMH
2023-09-26 04:00:05FORECAST202418151.78236.6844.2310004.94.9TF19.782325.78293359.0490560206200.394632249483881624215220WETMH
2023-09-26 00:00:03FORECAST202418151.85434.8843.367000.044.584.62TF19.854327.85493359.0490560206200.396914272036711624215220WETMH
2023-09-25 20:00:03FORECAST202418150.03635.13242.584000.044.794.83TF18.036325.03693359.0490560206200.340568393022291624215220WETMH
2023-09-25 16:00:03FORECAST202418149.92834.57442.251000.044.644.68TF17.928324.92893359.0490560206200.337316565510581624215220WETMH
2023-09-25 12:00:03FORECAST202418153.04236.24844.645000.124.95.02TF21.042330.04293359.0490560206200.435021243278541624225240WETMH
2023-09-25 08:00:04FORECAST202418153.13236.15844.645000.125.065.18TF21.132326.13293359.0490560206200.437937628062081624225240WETMH
2023-09-25 04:00:06FORECAST202418153.29436.44644.87000.034.995.02TF21.294324.29493359.0490560206200.443195519653061624215220WETMH
2023-09-25 00:00:06FORECAST202418153.13237.07645.1040003.663.66FF21.132328.13293359.0490560206200.437937628062081624215220DRYL
2023-09-24 20:00:03FORECAST202418151.42236.71644.0690003.953.95TF19.422324.42293359.0490560206200.383277746250581624215220DRYL
2023-09-24 16:00:03FORECAST202418153.07839.18246.130004.054.05TF21.078334.07893359.0490560206200.436187382258571624215220WETMH
2023-09-24 12:00:05FORECAST202418156.94838.87647.912000.024.454.47TF24.948341.94893359.0490560206200.562671062495521634215222.5WETMH
2023-09-24 08:00:04FORECAST202418156.67838.67847.6780004.344.34TF24.678336.67893359.0490560206200.553904261558051634215222.5WETMH
2023-09-24 04:00:05FORECAST202418155.7638.10246.9310004.464.46TF23.76332.7693359.0490560206200.523925062776651634215222.5WETMH
2023-09-24 00:00:02FORECAST202418145.24831.138.17400.488189242.148189244.246.38818924TT13.248304.24893359.0490560206200.210444358883691614255287.5WETH
2023-09-23 20:00:04FORECAST202418144.9631.31638.13800.47244122.07244124.496.5624412TT12.96306.9693359.0490560206200.203670220456311614255287.5WETH
2023-09-23 16:00:04FORECAST202418143.19629.87636.53600.444882132.164882134.426.58488213TT11.196310.19693359.0490560206200.165081761817711614255287.5WETH
2023-09-23 12:00:03FORECAST202418146.92232.30639.61400.035433090.675433094.084.75543309TF14.922317.92293359.0490560206200.25234625024451624235260WETM
2023-09-23 08:00:04FORECAST202418148.7434.68241.711000.633.944.57TF16.74325.7493359.0490560206200.302389687037011624235260WETMH
2023-09-23 04:00:06FORECAST202418145.33835.99640.66700.070866180.530866184.144.67086618TF13.338319.33893359.0490560206200.212588044355211614235252.5WETMH
2023-09-23 00:00:05FORECAST202418145.9536.5941.27000.554.845.39TF13.95324.9593359.0490560206200.227498910916631614235252.5WETMH
2023-09-22 20:00:06FORECAST202418148.45238.76843.61000.54.95.4TF16.452332.45293359.0490560206200.294172648904171624235260WETMH
2023-09-22 16:00:05FORECAST202418153.67233.11643.39400.007874020.067874024.244.30787402TF21.672320.67293359.0490560206200.455501314682441624215220WETMH
2023-09-22 12:00:04FORECAST202418155.38233.00844.19500.153543390.933543393.364.29354339TF23.382328.38293359.0490560206200.511531381191371634235267.5WETMH
2023-09-22 08:00:05FORECAST202418155.38232.5443.96100.122047310.822047313.714.53204731TF23.382327.38293359.0490560206200.511531381191371634235267.5WETMH
2023-09-22 04:00:06FORECAST202418149.62236.17642.89900.263779670.953779673.554.50377967TF17.622322.62293359.0490560206200.328169453046491624235260WETMH
2023-09-22 00:00:04FORECAST202418133.33232.28832.810003.423.42FF1.332323.33293359.0490560206200.0369570109139311614215217.5DRYL
2023-09-21 20:00:12FORECAST202418134.50232.2733.3860003.53.5FF2.502308.50293359.0490560206200.0454660809584261614215217.5DRYL
2023-09-21 16:00:04FORECAST202418139.50628.74234.124000.444.084.52TF7.506316.50693359.0490560206200.100675468229921614225235WETM
2023-09-21 12:00:04FORECAST202418136.69835.97836.338000.133.874TF4.698306.69893359.0490560206200.0656183393318781614225235WETM
2023-09-21 08:00:03FORECAST202418141.77439.81240.793000.153.854TF9.774327.77493359.0490560206200.137664599047071614225235DRYL
2023-09-21 04:00:06FORECAST202418143.01642.06242.539000.184.254.43TF11.016337.01693359.0490560206200.161428540069761614225235WETMH