Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, January 4, 2023

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DAY 96 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/05/2023 07:00:19 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 28.55°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 22.59°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 25.57°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.341 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: -3 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -18 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.05 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.23 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 11.78 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 12.01 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 81 in SWE DAY: 4 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 325.44 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 26.47 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -188 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 2 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 4.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2023-01-05 07:00:19	OBSERVATION	2023	96	-188	28.54994	22.58996	25.56995	81.322015833333	0.049999999999955	0.22999999999995	11.78	12.01	T	T	-3.45006	-18.45006	4	325.4427361771	26.465659344237	0.34087683248867	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-01-05 03:00:14	OBSERVATION	2023	96	-188	28.54994	22.58996	25.56995	81.322015833333	0.049999999999955	0.22999999999995	11.78	12.01	T	T	-3.45006	-18.45006	4	325.4427361771	26.465659344237	0.34087683248867	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-01-04 11:00:02	FORECAST	2023	96	-188	33.54	23.34	28.44	84.012932149329	0.0949	0.2749	11.78	12.0549	T	T	1.54	-13.46	4	327.29861219264	27.49731609871	0.58034624871477	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2023-01-04 07:00:22	FORECAST	2023	96	-188	34.2	24.18	29.19	84.415580938104	0.093	0.273	11.78	12.053	T	T	2.2	-12.8	4	327.57522231552	27.652452692694	0.61173225812636	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2023-01-04 03:00:16	FORECAST	2023	96	-188	33.81	24.34	29.075	84.292849206536	0.0977	0.2777	11.78	12.0577	T	T	1.81	-13.19	4	327.4909385117	27.605144296473	0.59326005715525	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2023-01-03 23:00:02	FORECAST	2023	96	-188	33.44	21.48	27.46	87.097520875713	0.1432	0.1932	11.78	11.9732	T	T	1.44	-14.56	4	329.41045114838	28.690833645574	0.57554052322393	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2023-01-03 19:00:03	FORECAST	2023	96	-188	33.46	22.09	27.775	87.031983939936	0.1058	0.1558	11.78	11.9358	T	T	1.46	-14.54	4	329.36575363313	28.665354980563	0.57650259107255	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2023-01-03 15:00:01	FORECAST	2023	96	-188	34.01	24.29	29.15	87.252146784199	0.0932	0.1432	11.78	11.9232	T	T	2.01	-13.99	4	329.51587966215	28.750967900006	0.60276171688536	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2023-01-03 11:00:06	FORECAST	2023	96	-188	34.1	26.39	30.245	87.231766156904	0.1072	0.1572	11.78	11.9372	T	T	2.1	-13.9	4	329.50198591724	28.743040183768	0.60701801539278	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2023-01-03 07:00:16	FORECAST	2023	96	-188	33.52	26.76	30.14	86.871198108549	0.1019	0.1619	11.78	11.9419	T	T	1.52	-11.48	4	329.2560629208	28.602868670434	0.5793860375115	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2023-01-03 03:00:22	FORECAST	2023	96	-188	33.53	28.26	30.895	87.145109795188	0.0992	0.2392	11.78	12.0192	T	T	1.53	-11.47	4	329.44290309091	28.709337961103	0.57986620252498	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2023-01-02 23:00:03	FORECAST	2023	96	-188	34.26	23.84	29.05	89.626555449104	0.0906	0.2406	11.78	12.0206	T	T	2.26	-11.74	4	331.12963259574	29.678008376684	0.61455297354489	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2023-01-02 19:00:03	FORECAST	2023	96	-188	34.53	26.48	30.505	89.746541852114	0.0848	0.2548	11.78	12.0348	T	T	2.53	-9.47	4	331.21092260263	29.725034927234	0.62716938931263	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2023-01-02 15:00:03	FORECAST	2023	96	-188	32.76	25.45	29.105	89.700237583034	0.0584	0.2184	11.78	11.9984	T	T	0.76	-6.24	4	331.17955469732	29.706884738993	0.54259935975488	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2023-01-02 11:00:04	FORECAST	2023	96	-188	32.83	25.28	29.055	89.717820935982	0.0491	0.2291	11.78	12.0091	T	T	0.83	-6.17	4	331.19146662422	29.713776698117	0.5460078730727	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2023-01-02 07:00:16	FORECAST	2023	96	-188	32.99	25.28	29.135	90.159736904978	0.0498	0.2698	11.78	12.0498	T	T	0.99	-6.01	4	331.49067008018	29.887111600884	0.55378565063477	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2023-01-02 03:00:21	FORECAST	2023	96	-188	32.98	25.83	29.405	90.27761479483	0.051	0.281	11.78	12.061	T	T	0.98	-8.02	4	331.57042371498	29.9333869895	0.55330011363428	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2023-01-01 23:00:08	FORECAST	2023	96	-188	31.02	24.19	27.605	91.215884289754	0.0861	0.2861	11.78	12.0661	T	T	-0.98	-11.98	4	332.20438583347	30.302316818735	0.45750889969582	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-01-01 19:00:03	FORECAST	2023	96	-188	33.41	25.14	29.275	90.646473890638	0.1404	0.2704	11.78	12.0504	T	T	1.41	-11.59	4	331.81983160156	30.078297701666	0.57409657905581	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2023-01-01 15:00:07	FORECAST	2023	96	-188	29.88	23.41	26.645	90.59299894106	0.1481	0.2581	11.78	12.0381	T	T	-2.12	-15.12	4	331.7836884431	30.057279335787	0.40256265192026	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-01-01 11:00:07	FORECAST	2023	96	-188	33.87	22.75	28.31	90.309066142268	0.0683	0.1783	11.78	11.9583	T	T	1.87	-11.13	4	331.59169898222	29.945736675612	0.59611659873815	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2023-01-01 07:00:28	FORECAST	2023	96	-188	34.16	24.11	29.135	90.602272427472	0.0628	0.1428	11.78	11.9228	T	T	2.16	-15.84	4	331.78995664731	30.060924040859	0.60984849244749	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2023-01-01 03:00:25	FORECAST	2023	96	-188	34.25	21.57	27.91	90.383471217955	0.0612	0.1312	11.78	11.9112	T	T	2.25	-10.75	4	331.64202353748	29.974957289065	0.61408327028114	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-12-31 23:00:08	FORECAST	2023	96	-188	34.31	25.55	29.93	86.389458630973	0.1369	0.2469	11.52	11.7669	T	T	2.31	-1.69	4	328.92714409594	28.415837907481	0.6168989583852	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-12-31 19:00:09	FORECAST	2023	96	-188	34.53	26.38	30.455	86.468839816792	0.1532	0.2832	11.53	11.8132	T	T	2.53	-7.47	4	328.98137114492	28.446637484238	0.62716938931263	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-12-31 15:00:09	FORECAST	2023	96	-188	34.58	26.33	30.455	86.128819583903	0.1464	0.2464	11.52	11.7664	T	T	2.58	-3.42	4	328.74901887566	28.314764935127	0.62949132467001	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-12-31 11:00:08	FORECAST	2023	96	-188	34.88	21.32	28.1	87.183345970895	0.2286	0.3186	11.53	11.8486	T	T	2.88	-2.12	4	329.4689743476	28.724207577223	0.64332141852461	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-12-31 07:00:19	FORECAST	2023	96	-188	36.93	26.33	31.63	86.35515057455	0.2868	0.3868	11.61	11.9968	T	T	4.93	-1.07	4	328.90370411742	28.402528893587	0.73208614364527	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-12-31 03:00:12	FORECAST	2023	96	-188	35.85	25.75	30.8	86.842287721937	0.2717	0.3717	11.72	12.0917	T	T	3.85	-4.15	4	329.23633503227	28.591636535388	0.68668807183421	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-12-30 23:00:04	FORECAST	2023	96	-188	36.69	21.67	29.18	80.510843256685	0.2384	0.2984	11.27	11.5684	T	T	4.69	-15.31	4	324.88079242129	26.156426555738	0.72228927595016	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-12-30 19:00:04	FORECAST	2023	96	-188	37.07	24.28	30.675	80.184399403407	0.2373	0.2873	11.22	11.5073	T	T	5.07	-7.93	4	324.65431991942	26.03221165646	0.73771959624852	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-12-30 15:00:03	FORECAST	2023	96	-188	37.12	25.34	31.23	80.066669477414	0.2449	0.2949	11.21	11.5049	T	T	5.12	-2.88	4	324.57259794922	25.987446921426	0.73971675667878	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-12-30 11:00:04	FORECAST	2023	96	-188	36.71	29	32.855	82.008983128502	0.2005	0.3405	11.19	11.5305	T	T	4.71	-5.29	4	325.91773149078	26.728181743107	0.72311231124463	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-12-30 07:00:30	FORECAST	2023	96	-188	36.71	29	32.855	81.335360419231	0.2005	0.3005	11.18	11.4805	T	T	4.71	-8.29	4	325.45197102717	26.470753362644	0.72311231124463	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-12-30 03:00:23	FORECAST	2023	96	-188	34.66	28.66	31.66	82.000923447077	0.218	0.308	11.29	11.598	T	T	2.66	-2.34	4	325.91216352407	26.725098371609	0.63319660086562	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-12-29 23:00:04	FORECAST	2023	96	-188	35.57	27.14	31.355	83.500039292662	0.075	0.125	11.55	11.675	T	T	3.57	1.57	4	326.94585708927	27.299991913527	0.67439968000659	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-12-29 19:00:10	FORECAST	2023	96	-188	32.07	25.53	28.8	82.296870717275	0.0753	0.1353	11.39	11.5253	T	T	0.07	9.07	4	326.11654160497	26.838370863229	0.50887292124903	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-12-29 15:00:11	FORECAST	2023	96	-188	32.53	25.77	29.15	82.319535482772	0.0753	0.1553	11.55	11.7053	T	T	0.53	5.53	4	326.13218732182	26.847050166313	0.53137921644716	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-12-29 11:00:10	FORECAST	2023	96	-188	37.4	25.45	31.425	82.521628155162	0.1306	0.1406	11.57	11.7106	T	T	5.4	18.4	4	326.27165412371	26.924468119166	0.75075449387762	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-12-29 07:00:22	FORECAST	2023	96	-188	39.74	28.55	34.145	82.378037026558	0.1306	0.1406	11.57	11.7106	T	T	7.74	-5.26	4	326.17256736658	26.869455831572	0.83256765535077	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-12-29 03:00:21	FORECAST	2023	96	-188	37.29	26.87	32.08	82.365126436653	0.1202	0.1202	11.74	11.8602	T	T	5.29	9.29	4	326.1636564904	26.864510805872	0.74644809363851	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-12-28 23:00:12	FORECAST	2023	96	-188	35.25	23.07	29.16	101.20084501343	0.1142	0.1242	11.47	11.5942	T	T	3.25	25.25	4	338.85817227215	34.29273337365	0.66012092300325	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-12-28 19:00:03	FORECAST	2023	96	-188	32	22.81	27.405	101.56469123251	0.0352	0.0852	11.6	11.6852	T	T	0	28	4	339.09746021341	34.440328844304	0.50544378988279	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2022-12-28 15:00:12	FORECAST	2023	96	-188	32.05	26.47	29.26	102.85007347318	0.0149	0.0649	12.02	12.0849	T	T	0.049999999999997	22.05	4	339.94103925449	34.962960863873	0.50789322525666	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2022-12-28 11:00:12	FORECAST	2023	96	-188	38.6	29.44	34.02	103.93470878801	0.066	0.336	12.1	12.436	T	T	6.6	33.6	4	340.65073136651	35.405434563	0.79511043592934	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-12-28 07:00:31	FORECAST	2023	96	-188	38.61	32.31	35.46	102.95086916122	0.0531	0.3231	12.12	12.4431	T	T	6.61	34.61	4	340.00707372439	35.004023760889	0.79545922453059	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-12-28 03:00:23	FORECAST	2023	96	-188	28.99	26.91	27.95	103.48868000068	0.0432	0.3232	12.25	12.5732	T	T	-3.01	24.99	4	340.35912514394	35.223316587332	0.36091102383547	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L