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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, January 25, 2023

[ Tuesday, January 24, 2023 | Index | Today | Thursday, January 26, 2023 ]

DAY 117 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/26/2023 07:00:15 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 40.74°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 26.50°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 33.62°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.822
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 9
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 1

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.10 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 7.42 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.52 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 100 in
SWE DAY: 25
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 358.27 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 35.99 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -167

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-01-26 07:00:15OBSERVATION2023117-16740.7400826.4999233.62100.4558358333300.17.427.52TT8.740080.7400825358.27340226367 35.9906540812490.8219929272312616 4112126WETL
2023-01-26 03:00:11OBSERVATION2023117-16740.7400826.4999233.62100.4558358333300.17.427.52TT8.740080.7400825358.27340226367 35.9906540812490.8219929272312616 4112126WETL
2023-01-25 11:00:02FORECAST2023117-16736.78824.22430.506100.887627200.17.427.52TT4.788-3.21225358.536068685836.1718532353260.6735242244372163112125WETL
2023-01-25 07:00:12FORECAST2023117-16737.50823.86430.686100.9273342434800.17.427.52TT5.508-2.49225358.5602087308736.1885260329920.70397978220424164112126WETL
2023-01-25 03:00:16FORECAST2023117-16737.38223.91830.65100.9242838434800.17.427.52TT5.382-2.61825358.5583543151636.1872451253530.69874468533735163112125WETL
2023-01-24 23:00:03FORECAST2023117-16737.41824.6231.019101.8613544007.427.42TT5.418-2.58225359.1273481217836.5811980817650.7002446752446164111123WETL
2023-01-24 19:00:04FORECAST2023117-16737.38224.5330.956101.853876007.427.42TT5.382-2.61825359.1228125597136.5780504192280.69874468533735163111122.5WETL
2023-01-24 15:00:02FORECAST2023117-16737.1324.92631.028101.8532856007.427.42TT5.13-2.8725359.1224544853536.5778019220690.68815160029697163111122.5WETL
2023-01-24 11:00:06FORECAST2023117-16737.6725.80831.739101.8409856007.427.42TT5.67-2.3325359.1149944807436.5726249816570.71064862127414164111123WETL
2023-01-24 07:00:23FORECAST2023117-16737.56225.50231.532101.73897561667007.427.42TT5.562-2.43825359.053115990336.5296962128250.70621055192889164111123WETL
2023-01-24 03:00:16FORECAST2023117-16737.65226.45632.054101.73385881667007.427.42TT5.652-2.34825359.0500117555236.5275432040580.70991113224593164111123WETL
2023-01-23 23:00:06FORECAST2023117-16737.27425.53831.406103.8485624007.427.42TT5.274-0.72625360.329518533837.419702490020.69422458834407163111122.5WETL
2023-01-23 19:00:05FORECAST2023117-16737.3124.83631.073103.846988007.427.42TT5.31-0.6925360.3285684932537.4190365283760.69573462143156163111122.5WETL
2023-01-23 15:00:05FORECAST2023117-16737.59825.80831.703103.8524984007.427.42TT5.598-1.40225360.3318936185637.4213674054910.70769340152272164111123WETL
2023-01-23 11:00:07FORECAST2023117-16737.56224.85431.208103.8497432007.427.42TT5.562-1.43825360.3302310617237.4202019629570.70621055192889164111123WETL
2023-01-23 07:00:23FORECAST2023117-16737.65225.68231.667103.61958191667007.427.42TT5.652-1.34825360.1913048751237.3228724211790.70991113224593164111123WETL
2023-01-23 03:00:12FORECAST2023117-16737.32825.57431.451103.62135311667007.427.42TT5.328-1.67225360.19237428837.3236212060280.69648839154702163111122.5WETL
2023-01-22 23:00:03FORECAST2023117-16737.72425.9731.84795.8427568006.756.75TT5.724-1.27625355.4491305267334.0672245718450.7128557915779164111123WETL
2023-01-22 19:00:04FORECAST2023117-16737.45426.27631.86595.8502352006.756.75TT5.454-1.54625355.4537358702334.070324185880.70174127679863164111123WETL
2023-01-22 15:00:07FORECAST2023117-16737.29225.50231.39795.8728672006.756.75TT5.292-1.70825355.4676725610234.0797049653360.69498001950275163111122.5WETL
2023-01-22 11:00:07FORECAST2023117-16735.58225.6130.59696.345561247013006.756.75TT3.582-4.41825355.7585725402634.2757593398280.61991553390334163111122.5WETL
2023-01-22 07:00:10FORECAST2023117-16735.65425.59230.62396.225678720542006.756.75TT3.654-3.34625355.6848288570434.2260140673680.62319396730774163111122.5WETL
2023-01-22 03:00:22FORECAST2023117-16735.36624.69230.02996.374626792964006.786.78TT3.366-3.63425355.7764483312834.2878224296530.61002930649601163111122.5WETL
2023-01-21 23:00:09FORECAST2023117-16735.3325.32230.32696.329521527423006.816.81TT3.33-10.6725355.7487072825934.2691027565310.60837446845871163111122.5WETL
2023-01-21 19:00:05FORECAST2023117-16735.45625.77230.61496.363772714006006.816.81TT3.456-10.54425355.7697730477734.2833175484890.61415762817808163111122.5WETL
2023-01-21 15:00:06FORECAST2023117-16735.6925.03430.36296.601356322011006.876.87TT3.69-11.3125355.9158454479734.3819534067690.62482987660557163111122.5WETL
2023-01-21 11:00:06FORECAST2023117-16735.8726.40231.136100.745980512006.856.85TT3.87-10.1325358.4499342173236.1123900871850.63297525946821163111122.5WETL
2023-01-21 07:00:18FORECAST2023117-16735.92426.36631.145100.67955197842006.86.8TT3.924-11.07625358.4095287641336.0845107807670.63540744273691163111122.5WETL
2023-01-21 03:00:16FORECAST2023117-16737.32825.64631.487100.89611632949006.886.88TT5.328-10.67225358.5412298883336.1754176397320.69648839154702163111122.5WETL
2023-01-20 23:00:06FORECAST2023117-16737.4926.02431.757104.50079888951006.946.94TT5.49-19.5125360.7227711244537.6958177601440.70323446997187164111123WETL
2023-01-20 19:00:07FORECAST2023117-16738.06626.16832.117104.19219461213006.886.88TT6.066-19.93425360.5367857165837.5651189422150.72664635471611164111123WETL
2023-01-20 15:00:04FORECAST2023117-16737.47225.731.586104.49030176117006.936.93TT5.472-22.52825360.7164472534337.691370423730.70248830067784164111123WETL
2023-01-20 11:00:09FORECAST2023117-16738.33626.65432.495103.07376711874006.676.67TF6.336-18.66425359.8615242235937.0922829428180.73729715884931164111123WETL
2023-01-20 07:00:24FORECAST2023117-16738.35426.56432.459103.25231758627006.756.75TT6.354-17.64625359.9694545256537.167680440040.73799959922585164111123WETL
2023-01-20 03:00:18FORECAST2023117-16737.88626.92432.405102.38534030043006.576.57TF5.886-18.11425359.444925037136.8018909691870.71942908786967164111123WETL
2023-01-19 23:00:10FORECAST2023117-16736.08627.28431.68597.994154559667006.236.23TF4.086-20.91425356.7704021350634.9614139291380.64267102084347163111122.5WETL
2023-01-19 19:00:09FORECAST2023117-16736.60827.17631.89298.927934450784006.426.42TF4.608-20.39225357.3416358438435.3510699272960.66571524693104163111122.5WETL
2023-01-19 15:00:09FORECAST2023117-16736.5927.21231.90198.809927186825006.386.38TF4.59-21.4125357.2695204451935.3017753012610.66493032151033163111122.5WETL
2023-01-19 11:00:07FORECAST2023117-16735.92426.67231.29898.49941720061700.046.286.32TF3.924-21.07625357.0796614406835.17213854610.63540744273691163111122.5WETL
2023-01-19 07:00:19FORECAST2023117-16733.76425.73629.7597.782380215118006.176.17TF1.764-23.23625356.6406619852934.8731728104170.53489283187473163111122.5WETL
2023-01-19 03:00:17FORECAST2023117-16733.99827.15830.57897.194616128445006.076.07TF1.998-23.00225356.280211911434.628518430890.54601276768354163111122.5WETL
2023-01-18 23:00:08FORECAST2023117-16734.93426.92430.92993.20695186511600.056.186.23TF2.934-21.06625353.8204896563732.9785293482930.59004801484044163111122.5WETL
2023-01-18 19:00:07FORECAST2023117-16735.02426.97831.00192.83192499205500.056.136.18TF3.024-19.97625353.5878764901232.8242432284310.59423198485992163111122.5WETL
2023-01-18 15:00:06FORECAST2023117-16735.63626.67231.15492.91565440820200.116.096.2TF3.636-17.36425353.6398294885432.8586761817330.62237518066339163112125WETL
2023-01-18 11:00:08FORECAST2023117-16736.1427.42831.78495.27425740668800.066.056.11TF4.14-17.8625355.0987813801433.8317727020130.64508092870716163111122.5WETL
2023-01-18 07:00:31FORECAST2023117-16736.1427.35631.74894.89360627266200.066.036.09TF4.14-16.8625354.863914557133.6743165883570.64508092870716163111122.5WETL
2023-01-18 03:00:13FORECAST2023117-16735.11428.2231.66794.667681677572006.086.08TF3.114-14.88625354.7244086471433.5809374010720.59840522001891163111122.5WETL
2023-01-17 23:00:15FORECAST2023117-16733.60227.75230.67794.867432496098006.056.05TF1.602-18.39825354.8477566426233.6634955996860.52717789122446163111122.5WETL
2023-01-17 19:00:08FORECAST2023117-16733.60227.78830.69594.937400954503006.076.07TF1.602-18.39825354.890948021133.6924242274030.52717789122446163111122.5WETL
2023-01-17 15:00:08FORECAST2023117-16733.4427.28430.36294.631413109169005.995.99TF1.44-19.5625354.7020057536133.5659520371210.51945274150038163111122.5WETL
2023-01-17 11:00:07FORECAST2023117-16732.925.46629.18395.83977903254400.075.895.96TF0.9-19.125355.4472967355334.0659903768480.49366575260248162111122WETL
2023-01-17 07:00:29FORECAST2023117-16732.93625.53829.23795.91418968893500.075.925.99TF0.936-19.06425355.4931167099134.0968342292250.49538525402078162111122WETL
2023-01-17 03:00:30FORECAST2023117-16730.43424.42227.42895.98646686919800.085.956.03TF-1.566-22.56625355.5376146596734.1267994702840.37784246398267162111122WETL
2023-01-16 23:00:08FORECAST2023117-16731.35224.63827.99592.7914856142400.086.016.09TF-0.648-23.64825353.5627804323832.8076156542220.42025842235451162111122WETL
2023-01-16 19:00:09FORECAST2023117-16731.38824.54827.96892.3088692460850066TF-0.612-22.61225353.2630770754532.6093151912270.42194434708307162111122WETL
2023-01-16 15:00:11FORECAST2023117-16733.22421.9227.57294.05182072992006.336.33TF1.224-25.77625354.3437145980833.3266715221530.50914166825356163111122.5WETL
2023-01-16 11:00:11FORECAST2023117-16731.76621.45226.60994.83644260613100.026.36.32TF-0.234-39.23425354.8286241974533.6506844537130.43972718756772162111122WETL
2023-01-16 07:00:25FORECAST2023117-16731.76621.45226.60995.81287475922800.026.436.45TF-0.234-38.23425355.4307277143634.0548398000770.43972718756772162111122WETL
2023-01-16 03:00:25FORECAST2023117-16727.33821.77624.557100.666108565450.43307110.45307116.597.0430711TT-4.662-44.66225358.4013509184736.0788693015620.24765551809893161112123WETL
2023-01-15 23:00:09FORECAST2023117-16724.0824.0824.0899.21542097482600.856.587.43TT-7.92-38.9225357.5172312361535.4712226028480.14181767990228161113124.5WETL
2023-01-15 19:00:07FORECAST2023117-16722.56822.56822.568100.3093488397100.96.777.67TT-9.432-37.43225358.1842261375835.9292264885170.10501905081128161113124.5WETL
2023-01-15 15:00:08FORECAST2023117-16721.43421.43421.434100.7944779111600.487.247.72TT-10.566-35.56625358.4794286724336.132746854930.082340323317787161112123WETL
2023-01-15 11:00:03FORECAST2023117-16728.7628.7628.76104.3035892634200.527.427.94TT-3.24-27.2425360.6039363371637.6122848624850.30446579562666162113126WETL
2023-01-15 07:00:19FORECAST2023117-16728.7628.7628.76103.5589211871200.527.317.83TT-3.24-27.2425360.1546763128837.297229739460.30446579562666162113126WETL
2023-01-15 03:00:19FORECAST2023117-16727.30227.30227.30295.2347809677740.011811030.031811036.616.64181103TF-4.698-31.69825355.0744344437433.8154359915060.24629432654481161111121.5WETL