MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, January 24, 2023

[ Monday, January 23, 2023 | Index | Today | Wednesday, January 25, 2023 ]

DAY 116 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/25/2023 07:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 28.72°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 20.37°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 24.55°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.263
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -3
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -7

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.10 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.87 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 7.14 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 8.01 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 101 in
SWE DAY: 24
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 357.73 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 36.15 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -168

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-01-25 07:00:11OBSERVATION2023116-16828.7200420.3700224.54503101.055943043480.100000000000020.870000000000027.148.01TT-3.27996-7.2799624357.72745640441 36.1504854594930.262835752798216 2113126WETL
2023-01-25 03:00:15OBSERVATION2023116-16828.7200420.3700224.54503101.055943043480.100000000000020.870000000000027.148.01TT-3.27996-7.2799624357.72745640441 36.1504854594930.262835752798216 2113126WETL
2023-01-24 11:00:03FORECAST2023116-16829.17420.87625.02510200.777.147.91TT-2.826-6.82624358.302677330136.5468730876710.28268157387476162113126WETL
2023-01-24 07:00:21FORECAST2023116-16829.321.1125.205101.8912004166700.777.147.91TT-2.7-6.724358.2364552345236.5011424568560.28831475197161162113126WETL
2023-01-24 03:00:15FORECAST2023116-16829.37220.8425.106101.8912004166700.777.147.91TT-2.628-6.62824358.2364552345236.5011424568560.29155727338757162113126WETL
2023-01-23 23:00:01FORECAST2023116-16829.58821.03825.31310400.777.147.91TT-2.412-5.41224359.5167453855137.3897415200940.30138532665391162113126WETL
2023-01-23 19:00:03FORECAST2023116-16829.58821.00225.29510400.777.147.91TT-2.412-5.41224359.5167453855137.3897415200940.30138532665391162113126WETL
2023-01-23 15:00:02FORECAST2023116-16829.26421.30825.28610400.777.147.91TT-2.736-5.73624359.5167453855137.3897415200940.28669988647652162113126WETL
2023-01-23 11:00:06FORECAST2023116-16829.321.30825.30410400.777.147.91TT-2.7-5.724359.5167453855137.3897415200940.28831475197161162113126WETL
2023-01-23 07:00:22FORECAST2023116-16829.33622.08225.709103.7711179166700.777.147.91TT-2.664-5.66424359.3781184872137.2930691102060.28993388928526162113126WETL
2023-01-23 03:00:12FORECAST2023116-16829.40821.8325.619103.7711179166700.777.147.91TT-2.592-5.59224359.3781184872137.2930691102060.29318487899176162113126WETL
2023-01-22 23:00:03FORECAST2023116-16828.59821.84825.2239600.17.147.24TT-3.402-6.40224354.6232480961934.0438318172350.25762452633833162112124WETL
2023-01-22 19:00:03FORECAST2023116-16828.83220.94824.899600.17.147.24TT-3.168-6.16824354.6232480961934.0438318172350.26766345858697162112124WETL
2023-01-22 15:00:06FORECAST2023116-16828.97621.43425.2059600.17.147.24TT-3.024-6.02424354.6232480961934.0438318172350.27393766605934162112124WETL
2023-01-22 11:00:06FORECAST2023116-16828.45422.0125.23296.42172284701300.17.147.24TT-3.546-6.54624354.8837008015834.2184978416130.25154521580512162112124WETL
2023-01-22 07:00:10FORECAST2023116-16828.68822.20825.44896.30223392054200.17.147.24TT-3.312-6.31224354.8099337058934.1689892330760.26146242050534162112124WETL
2023-01-22 03:00:20FORECAST2023116-16828.56221.88425.22396.44183399296400.137.147.27TT-3.438-6.43824354.8961143186334.2268321418650.25609758909088162112124WETL
2023-01-21 23:00:08FORECAST2023116-16829.2122.58625.89896.38413352742300.097.217.3TT-2.79-12.7924354.8604972578734.202921551310.2842856520119162111122WETL
2023-01-21 19:00:05FORECAST2023116-16829.49822.80226.1596.43747431400600.097.217.3TT-2.502-12.50224354.8934233796534.2250254013850.29727219382278162111122WETL
2023-01-21 15:00:06FORECAST2023116-16829.22821.72225.47596.68115872201100.157.217.36TT-2.772-13.77224355.0437878011634.3260448016680.28508931757208162112124WETL
2023-01-21 11:00:06FORECAST2023116-16829.58821.68625.637100.83601651200.137.217.34TT-2.412-13.41224357.5932553258936.0582793986210.30138532665391162112124WETL
2023-01-21 07:00:18FORECAST2023116-16829.46221.09225.277100.7714575784200.127.177.29TT-2.538-13.53824357.5538466690636.031222291610.2956341467699162112124WETL
2023-01-21 03:00:16FORECAST2023116-16829.08421.14625.115101.0216747294900.137.247.37TT-2.916-14.91624357.7065505119236.1361147944240.27869049422559162112124WETL
2023-01-20 23:00:06FORECAST2023116-16828.88620.0324.458104.6307852895100.137.37.43TT-3.114-24.11424359.8983759523637.6564497003140.27000778602171162112124WETL
2023-01-20 19:00:07FORECAST2023116-16829.13821.21825.178104.3409754121300.137.247.37TT-2.862-24.86224359.7231143911937.5338606338670.28108185312424162112124WETL
2023-01-20 15:00:04FORECAST2023116-16829.35420.69625.025104.6366225611700.237.197.42TT-2.646-26.64624359.9019046977437.6589197609050.29074505206225162112124WETL
2023-01-20 11:00:09FORECAST2023116-16829.73221.1125.421103.2589559187400.216.957.16TT-2.268-24.26824359.0676254899637.0769481123150.30801899890061162112124WETL
2023-01-20 07:00:23FORECAST2023116-16829.78621.21825.502103.4393759862700.2477.24TT-2.214-23.21424359.1770494043337.1530498589740.31052303432469162112124WETL
2023-01-20 03:00:18FORECAST2023116-16829.62421.07425.349102.5690531004300.156.917.06TT-2.376-23.37624358.6487399135936.7862616485990.30303771599415162112124WETL
2023-01-19 23:00:09FORECAST2023116-16830.81221.1125.96198.10829855966700.096.636.72TT-1.188-24.18824355.9225321723634.9189540504790.35965709116762162111122WETL
2023-01-19 19:00:09FORECAST2023116-16830.99220.51625.75499.04906485078400.186.736.91TT-1.008-24.00824356.5000582670235.3109973905980.36855118924001162112124WETL
2023-01-19 15:00:09FORECAST2023116-16831.13620.73225.93498.93587918682500.186.696.87TT-0.864-24.86424356.4306478378235.2637795129640.37571777099826162112124WETL
2023-01-19 11:00:07FORECAST2023116-16830.79421.70426.24998.59102760061700.166.656.81TT-1.206-24.20624356.2190466118135.120001856370.35877175364922162112124WETL
2023-01-19 07:00:18FORECAST2023116-16831.71222.2826.99697.81130981511800.116.556.66TF-0.288-24.28824355.7399272625634.7953882390860.40479166718143162112124WETL
2023-01-19 03:00:17FORECAST2023116-16832.52224.828.66197.22374252844500.056.516.56TF0.522-24.47824355.3782526886734.5512037396120.44654567726638162111122WETL
2023-01-18 23:00:08FORECAST2023116-16833.0825.1629.1293.27120706511600.086.646.72TT1.08-22.9224352.9312072091632.9183197073470.47568805323066162111122WETL
2023-01-18 19:00:07FORECAST2023116-16833.13425.17829.15692.89893539205500.056.626.67TF1.134-21.86624352.6994625074632.7654045802930.47851772585763162111122WETL
2023-01-18 15:00:05FORECAST2023116-16833.65625.62829.64293.00775680820200.116.586.69TT1.656-20.34424352.7672281387132.8100885646290.50590581746476163112125WETL
2023-01-18 11:00:08FORECAST2023116-16834.10626.04230.07495.41024620668800.066.546.6TF2.106-20.89424354.2585526084633.7998957251980.52949866998216163111122.5WETL
2023-01-18 07:00:31FORECAST2023116-16834.10625.98830.04795.02979187266200.066.526.58TF2.106-19.89424354.0229949214233.6427315255190.52949866998216163111122.5WETL
2023-01-18 03:00:13FORECAST2023116-16834.725.57430.13794.760472877572006.576.57TF2.7-17.324353.856108843833.5315722046560.56047000584228163111122.5WETL
2023-01-17 23:00:14FORECAST2023116-16832.86424.99828.93194.905513296098006.546.54TF0.864-19.13624353.9459987043633.5914266861370.46438303951607162111122WETL
2023-01-17 19:00:08FORECAST2023116-16832.86425.03428.94994.975284954503006.566.56TF0.864-19.13624353.9892284047833.6202278385690.46438303951607162111122WETL
2023-01-17 15:00:08FORECAST2023116-16831.80224.31428.05894.664967509169006.486.48TF-0.198-20.19824353.7969006082233.4921721009220.4093868677687162111122WETL
2023-01-17 11:00:07FORECAST2023116-16829.60625.82627.71695.8532598325440.074803190.074803196.386.45480319TF-2.394-19.39424354.5325570789333.9831013127830.30221101495342162111122WETL
2023-01-17 07:00:28FORECAST2023116-16829.51625.59227.55495.9262928889350.074803190.074803196.416.48480319TF-2.484-19.48424354.5776985170334.0133241598290.29809276811655162111122WETL
2023-01-17 03:00:30FORECAST2023116-16829.80426.1527.97795.9864668691980.07874020.07874026.446.5187402TF-2.196-20.19624354.6148855203634.0382299603250.31135967380137162111122WETL
2023-01-16 23:00:08FORECAST2023116-16830.99226.58228.78792.791485614240.07874020.09874026.486.5787402TF-1.008-22.00824352.6325326466332.7212965801920.36855118924001162112124WETL
2023-01-16 19:00:08FORECAST2023116-16830.95626.63628.79692.30886924608500.026.476.49TF-1.044-21.04424352.3316882503432.5233397419530.3667665512056162111122WETL
2023-01-16 15:00:11FORECAST2023116-16827.69821.59624.64794.0585119299200.046.786.82TT-4.302-26.30224353.4205951288733.2422152632080.22091012269184161111121.5WETL
2023-01-16 11:00:10FORECAST2023116-16825.75420.35423.05494.8364426061310.023622060.063622066.756.81362206TT-6.246-38.24624353.9031957689833.5629201136710.15267563454741161111121.5WETL
2023-01-16 07:00:25FORECAST2023116-16825.75420.35423.05495.8128747592280.023622060.073622066.876.94362206TT-6.246-37.24624354.5075916319633.9663914782280.15267563454741161111121.5WETL
2023-01-16 03:00:25FORECAST2023116-16825.48419.65222.56896.5002288852540.023622060.073622067.037.10362206TT-6.516-38.51624354.9321547175134.2510341689760.14444053915983161111121.5WETL
2023-01-15 23:00:08FORECAST2023116-16826.11420.01223.06399.2154209748260.125984321.225984326.697.91598432TT-5.886-29.88624356.6020389507835.3804214149830.16412988908855161114126WETL
2023-01-15 19:00:07FORECAST2023116-16825.3419.90422.622100.309348839710.125984321.275984326.888.15598432TT-6.66-26.6624357.2715732546535.8376788721140.14017283197832161114126WETL
2023-01-15 15:00:08FORECAST2023116-16825.57418.6822.127100.794477911160.244094621.424094626.798.21409462TT-6.426-24.42624357.567899693236.0408697673680.14715174679539161114126WETL
2023-01-15 11:00:03FORECAST2023116-16829.3923.57626.483104.303589263420.279527711.599527716.838.42952771TT-2.61-22.6124359.7004958454537.5180527765130.292370550092361621151210WETL
2023-01-15 07:00:19FORECAST2023116-16829.3923.50426.447103.558921187120.279527711.599527716.728.31952771TT-2.61-22.6124359.2495253853137.2034932858890.292370550092361621151210WETL
2023-01-15 03:00:19FORECAST2023116-16831.126.0628.5895.0918504509030.019685050.089685057.037.11968505TT-0.9-25.924354.0614339287133.6683569255810.37392199268491162111122WETL
2023-01-14 23:00:07FORECAST2023116-16828.2228.2228.22104.353106809470.011811030.621811037.367.98181103TT-3.78-30.7824359.7304534009537.538990426370.24183009679441161113124.5WETL
2023-01-14 19:00:08FORECAST2023116-16828.4928.4928.49104.561321431430.011811030.621811037.478.09181103TT-3.51-29.5124359.8563796695637.6270585837780.25305791464777162113126WETL
2023-01-14 15:00:11FORECAST2023116-16825.10625.10625.106104.659932279460.023622060.873622067.178.04362206TT-6.894-32.89424359.9159953587337.6687837005380.13342161562793161113124.5WETL
2023-01-14 11:00:12FORECAST2023116-16825.7925.7925.79101.6290578485400.187.317.49TT-6.21-33.2124358.0768240123636.3910102617750.1537966636357161112123WETL
2023-01-14 07:00:26FORECAST2023116-16825.7925.7925.79100.3730311594200.187.127.3TT-6.21-33.2124357.3104924989735.8643371971860.1537966636357161112123WETL
2023-01-14 03:00:16FORECAST2023116-16823.50423.50423.504100.171828726900.077.187.25TT-8.496-33.49624357.1875068023435.780125754790.093177127559039161111121.5WETL