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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, January 22, 2023

[ Saturday, January 21, 2023 | Index | Today | Monday, January 23, 2023 ]

DAY 114 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/23/2023 07:00:18 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 22.94°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 19.25°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 21.10°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.115
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -9
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 3

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.77 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.63 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.61 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 8.24 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 104 in
SWE DAY: 22
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 357.56 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 37.10 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -170

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-01-23 07:00:18OBSERVATION2023114-17022.9400619.2500621.09506103.771117916670.769999999999981.636.618.24TT-9.059942.9400622357.55844619167 37.1042396818560.1152635727699116 1115127.5WETL
2023-01-23 03:00:10OBSERVATION2023114-17022.9400619.2500621.09506103.771117916670.769999999999981.636.618.24TT-9.059942.9400622357.55844619167 37.1042396818560.1152635727699116 1115127.5WETL
2023-01-22 11:00:02FORECAST2023114-17022.87418.35620.61596.4217228470130.098425250.958425256.617.56842525TT-9.1262.87422353.029740803434.0397358244980.11384232472354161113124.5WETL
2023-01-22 07:00:09FORECAST2023114-17023.43218.0520.74196.3022339205420.102362260.962362266.617.57236226TT-8.5683.43222352.9554109419833.9903945480550.12624352954961161113124.5WETL
2023-01-22 03:00:18FORECAST2023114-17023.03617.9620.49896.4418339929640.129921330.989921336.617.59992133TT-8.9643.03622353.0422490225934.0480419727390.11734999181301161113124.5WETL
2023-01-21 23:00:03FORECAST2023114-17022.8217.56420.19296.3841335274230.086614221.016614226.617.62661422TT-9.18-4.1822353.0063602409334.0242121614920.11268982401381161114126WETL
2023-01-21 19:00:02FORECAST2023114-17022.9117.88820.39996.4374743140060.094488241.024488246.617.63448824TT-9.09-4.0922353.0395375545734.0462413347470.11461529551804161114126WETL
2023-01-21 15:00:02FORECAST2023114-17022.89218.46420.67896.6811587220110.145669371.075669376.617.68566937TT-9.108-4.10822353.1910490992234.1469198771550.11422834596202161114126WETL
2023-01-21 11:00:04FORECAST2023114-17022.44217.40219.922100.8360165120.129921331.059921336.617.66992133TT-9.558-4.55822355.7599663926435.8734178454770.10485444014614161114126WETL
2023-01-21 07:00:16FORECAST2023114-17022.38816.98819.688100.771457578420.122047311.012047316.617.62204731TT-9.612-4.61222355.7202570890135.8464487970280.10376801206541161114126WETL
2023-01-21 03:00:14FORECAST2023114-17022.02816.91619.472101.021674729490.129921331.089921336.617.69992133TT-9.972-3.97222355.8741259023635.951000191550.096732645692694161114126WETL
2023-01-20 23:00:05FORECAST2023114-17021.93816.50219.22104.630785289510.129921331.149921336.617.75992133TT-10.062-12.06222358.0826726767237.4664712407320.095029668897145161114126WETL
2023-01-20 19:00:06FORECAST2023114-17021.95616.82619.391104.340975412130.129921331.089921336.617.69992133TT-10.044-13.04422357.9060740532937.3442688726470.095368491299321161114126WETL
2023-01-20 15:00:03FORECAST2023114-17022.1917.20419.697104.636622561170.232283591.142283596.617.75228359TT-9.81-13.8122358.0862283427437.4689335194540.099854106719387161114126WETL
2023-01-20 11:00:07FORECAST2023114-17022.31617.4219.868103.258955918740.208661530.878661536.617.48866153TT-9.684-12.68422357.2455844578436.8888060576980.10233213531324161113124.5WETL
2023-01-20 07:00:21FORECAST2023114-17022.69417.5120.102103.439375986270.240157610.960157616.617.57015761TT-9.306-12.30622357.3558431621436.9646654217410.11003301584002161113124.5WETL
2023-01-20 03:00:16FORECAST2023114-17022.69417.27619.985102.569053100430.145669370.775669376.617.38566937TT-9.306-12.30622356.8235032229736.5990488495590.11003301584002161113124.5WETL
2023-01-19 23:00:07FORECAST2023114-17022.80217.20420.00398.1082985596670.094488240.624488246.437.05448824TT-9.198-14.19822354.076497370234.7378427169560.1123075091176161113124.5WETL
2023-01-19 19:00:08FORECAST2023114-17023.2717.4220.34599.0490648507840.181102460.811102466.437.24110246TT-8.73-13.7322354.6584293844635.1285857719790.12255024015276161113124.5WETL
2023-01-19 15:00:07FORECAST2023114-17022.60416.59219.59898.9358791868250.177165450.767165456.437.19716545TT-9.396-15.39622354.5884894263435.0815239509230.10816292360904161113124.5WETL
2023-01-19 11:00:06FORECAST2023114-17022.78416.05219.41898.4297913667660.122047310.672047316.437.10204731TT-9.216-14.21622354.2755203547134.8712655548670.11192611904671161113124.5WETL
2023-01-19 07:00:17FORECAST2023114-17022.3715.67419.02297.8113098151180.110236280.560236286.436.99023628TT-9.63-15.6322353.8924993760734.6146888977190.10340768447976161113124.5WETL
2023-01-19 03:00:16FORECAST2023114-17023.6315.7119.6797.2278753284450.051181130.461181136.436.89118113TT-8.37-16.3722353.5306308387234.3730320999740.13086166045747161112123WETL
2023-01-18 23:00:07FORECAST2023114-17026.18615.99821.09293.0480508571410.031496080.401496086.67.00149608TT-5.814-15.81422350.9224003508132.6526453547530.20089674192431161112123WETL
2023-01-18 19:00:06FORECAST2023114-17026.18615.76420.97592.6764679840800.356.66.95TT-5.814-14.81422350.6891877917432.5006352847440.20089674192431161112123WETL
2023-01-18 15:00:04FORECAST2023114-17025.05216.57420.81392.46458668664500.316.66.91TT-6.948-14.94822350.5561084417532.4140256775450.16743385680505161112123WETL
2023-01-18 11:00:07FORECAST2023114-17025.59216.55621.07495.11269657612300.276.66.87TT-6.408-15.40822352.2142100950833.5000432945720.18289609904933161112123WETL
2023-01-18 07:00:30FORECAST2023114-17026.13216.80821.4794.73234064209700.286.576.85TT-5.868-13.86822351.976737359733.3435801816530.19921777821531161112123WETL
2023-01-18 03:00:12FORECAST2023114-17025.57416.95221.26394.81183767757200.316.596.9TT-6.426-13.42622352.0263897792133.3762689259680.18236678689684161112123WETL
2023-01-17 23:00:12FORECAST2023114-17024.74617.16820.95794.91614049609800.366.516.87TT-7.254-13.25422352.0915202401433.4191682025980.15905639273498161112123WETL
2023-01-17 19:00:08FORECAST2023114-17024.78217.22221.00294.98591215450300.366.536.89TT-7.218-13.21822352.1350785621433.4478716388230.16002750958188161112123WETL
2023-01-17 15:00:07FORECAST2023114-17025.17816.03420.60694.66496750916900.376.446.81TT-6.822-12.82222351.9346494621133.3158821566820.17096435911406161112123WETL
2023-01-17 11:00:07FORECAST2023114-17025.57416.28620.9395.41048248397500.336.386.71TT-6.426-13.42622352.3999707193933.6226512336760.18236678689684161112123WETL
2023-01-17 07:00:27FORECAST2023114-17025.55616.30420.9395.47592712928700.336.416.74TT-6.444-13.44422352.4407766500733.6496099088310.18183843067596161112123WETL
2023-01-17 03:00:29FORECAST2023114-17025.0716.93421.00295.50844670550700.416.366.77TT-6.93-12.9322352.4610506767533.6630074743270.16793532516508161112123WETL
2023-01-16 23:00:07FORECAST2023114-17024.47617.43820.95792.2676282750250.023622060.423622066.416.83362206TT-7.524-15.52422350.4323376762432.333560668260.15189601217163161112123WETL
2023-01-16 19:00:08FORECAST2023114-17024.0818.5921.33592.3245148460850.023622060.413622066.416.82362206TT-7.92-16.9222350.4680921634332.3567965780220.14178629941828161112123WETL
2023-01-16 15:00:10FORECAST2023114-17022.9117.7820.34594.058511929920.035433090.715433096.437.14543309TT-9.09-17.0922351.5554731658433.0667846667970.11461529551804161113124.5WETL
2023-01-16 11:00:10FORECAST2023114-17022.2816.6119.44594.6286757685990.043307110.743307116.387.12330711TT-9.72-22.7222351.911975079933.3009641889230.10161962203289161113124.5WETL
2023-01-16 07:00:24FORECAST2023114-17022.33416.719.51795.6051079216970.047244120.757244126.497.24724412TT-9.666-21.66622352.5213033252933.7028372491120.10268974694937161113124.5WETL
2023-01-16 03:00:24FORECAST2023114-17022.47816.55619.51796.2882908335740.047244120.807244126.67.40724412TT-9.522-21.52222352.9467359677533.9846379616230.10558327156921161113124.5WETL
2023-01-15 23:00:08FORECAST2023114-17026.43821.14623.79292.4967594878340.381889970.771889976.637.40188997TT-5.562-17.56222350.5763202903532.4271735800260.20884325378504161113124.5WETL
2023-01-15 19:00:07FORECAST2023114-17027.62620.22823.92793.0680904819160.381889970.981889976.617.59188997TT-4.374-14.37422350.9349713504732.6608476669150.24871274162334161113124.5WETL
2023-01-15 15:00:07FORECAST2023114-17030.32624.20627.26696.3253423751030.937008381.437008386.628.05700838TT-1.674-11.67422352.9697876589533.9999356443160.35240396252247162114128WETL
2023-01-15 11:00:02FORECAST2023114-17031.22626.61828.922100.095391994791.078740741.458740746.788.23874074TT-0.774-16.77422355.3040271662535.5642958765330.39014443121657162114128WETL
2023-01-15 07:00:18FORECAST2023114-17031.35226.61828.98599.3596604157471.078740741.458740746.678.12874074TT-0.648-16.64822354.8502500823635.2578003466260.39552117591342162114128WETL
2023-01-15 03:00:18FORECAST2023114-17027.06819.90423.48694.8988228831940.066929170.446929176.987.42692917TT-4.932-19.93222352.0807076894433.412044719610.22950009872202161112123WETL
2023-01-14 23:00:07FORECAST2023114-17026.47420.80423.639100.346218191780.149606380.479606387.367.83960638TT-5.526-20.52622355.458535482735.6689197596770.20999336772743161112123WETL
2023-01-14 19:00:08FORECAST2023114-17026.56421.25423.909100.605936271020.149606380.479606387.477.94960638TT-5.436-21.43622355.6184174771135.7773238455040.21288485242489161112123WETL
2023-01-14 15:00:11FORECAST2023114-17026.623.19824.89999.6067133389260.216535550.256535557.467.71653555TT-5.4-22.422355.0027194630235.3606541120920.21404790894396161112123WETL
2023-01-14 11:00:11FORECAST2023114-17026.13222.8224.476101.669992248540.177165450.397165457.427.81716545TT-5.868-24.86822356.2723483508136.2222068951980.19921777821531161112123WETL
2023-01-14 07:00:25FORECAST2023114-17025.95222.67624.314100.405798359420.177165450.407165457.227.62716545TT-6.048-25.04822355.4952222525335.6937816032240.19368243888187161112123WETL
2023-01-14 03:00:16FORECAST2023114-17025.9721.59623.783100.19593672690.066929170.366929177.217.57692917TT-6.03-22.0322355.3659742934135.6062266751940.19423172457147161112123WETL
2023-01-13 23:00:09FORECAST2023114-17031.53223.7227.626121.707998262340.948819412.198819418.2410.43881941TT-0.468-12.46822368.2626382895544.8205085410290.403236611872071621151210WETL
2023-01-13 19:00:10FORECAST2023114-17031.44223.7227.581121.414552913970.948819412.198819418.1610.35881941TT-0.558-12.55822368.0914140067344.6916544630970.399373982335771621151210WETL
2023-01-13 15:00:09FORECAST2023114-17031.4623.23427.347122.710971547970.98425252.33425258.2810.6142525TT-0.54-7.5422368.846906899745.2615622981240.40014573390821621151210WETL
2023-01-13 11:00:07FORECAST2023114-17032.14425.86229.003124.450659570391.011811572.511811578.3210.83181157TT0.144-7.85622369.8568155038446.0289246360570.429734606886811621151210WETL
2023-01-13 07:00:23FORECAST2023114-17032.05425.86228.958124.058572938161.011811572.511811578.3310.84181157TT0.054000000000002-7.94622369.6295941598545.8557199671810.425814893467231621151210WETL
2023-01-13 03:00:14FORECAST2023114-17029.78619.97624.881113.161791939160.011811031.121811037.949.06181103TT-2.214-13.21422363.2233191895341.1030016735780.3304116983368162114128WETL
2023-01-12 23:00:04FORECAST2023114-17022.04622.04622.046113.106218581950.015748040.875748045.986.85574804TT-9.954-21.95422363.1901907530741.0790691021390.097075905197558161113124.5WETL
2023-01-12 19:00:10FORECAST2023114-17022.4622.4622.46113.654000882720.015748040.885748046.096.97574804TT-9.54-20.5422363.5165311642641.3151081538260.1052184007073161113124.5WETL
2023-01-12 15:00:04FORECAST2023114-17022.83822.83822.838111.340986934230.015748040.745748045.916.65574804TT-9.162-25.16222362.1354623376640.3205197805590.11307306444507161113124.5WETL
2023-01-12 13:53:02FORECAST2023114-17022.83822.83822.838111.329280339290.015748040.745748045.826.56574804TT-9.162-24.16222362.1284518335740.3154999330130.11307306444507161113124.5WETL
2023-01-12 13:51:41FORECAST2023114-17022.83822.83822.838NAN0.015748040.745748045.826.56574804TT-9.162-24.16222NANNAN0.113073064445071611135222.5WETL
2023-01-12 13:50:27FORECAST2023114-17022.83822.83822.838NAN0.015748040.745748045.826.56574804TT-9.162-24.16222NANNAN0.113073064445071611135222.5WETL