Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, January 21, 2023

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DAY 113 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/22/2023 07:00:08 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 33.59°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 22.17°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 27.88°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.498 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 2 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 9 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.86 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.04 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.48 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.52 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 96 in SWE DAY: 21 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 351.76 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 33.73 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -171 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 4 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 8.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2023-01-22 07:00:08	OBSERVATION	2023	113	-171	33.58994	22.17002	27.87998	95.88071375	0.8599999999999	1.0399999999999	6.48	7.5199999999999	T	T	1.58994	8.58994	21	351.75945865288	33.726947963952	0.49806009107136	16	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2023-01-22 03:00:16	OBSERVATION	2023	113	-171	33.58994	22.17002	27.87998	95.88071375	0.8599999999999	1.0399999999999	6.48	7.5199999999999	T	T	1.58994	8.58994	21	351.75945865288	33.726947963952	0.49806009107136	16	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2023-01-21 11:00:01	FORECAST	2023	113	-171	27.284	19.508	23.396	100.21802613671	0.92913436	1.10913436	6.48	7.58913436	T	T	-4.716	2.284	21	354.45625098608	35.522905825643	0.24370097819996	16	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-01-21 07:00:15	FORECAST	2023	113	-171	27.014	19.526	23.27	100.22331904287	0.89370127	1.07370127	6.48	7.55370127	T	T	-4.986	2.014	21	354.45952381737	35.525109943333	0.23453966110619	16	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-01-21 03:00:13	FORECAST	2023	113	-171	28.004	20.408	24.206	100.41814408381	0.96063044	1.14063044	6.48	7.62063044	T	T	-3.996	3.004	21	354.57996189906	35.606261703211	0.26904555232729	16	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2023-01-20 23:00:01	FORECAST	2023	113	-171	28.688	18.86	23.774	103.96837493218	1.0236226	1.2036226	6.48	7.6836226	T	T	-3.312	-5.312	21	356.76425801343	37.09220013954	0.29428854409778	16	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2023-01-20 19:00:02	FORECAST	2023	113	-171	28.058	18.41	23.234	103.66541377665	0.95669343	1.13669343	6.48	7.61669343	T	T	-3.942	-5.942	21	356.57862750117	36.964870963819	0.27099830064495	16	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2023-01-20 15:00:02	FORECAST	2023	113	-171	27.446	18.914	23.18	103.4589182123	0.90944931	1.08944931	6.48	7.56944931	T	T	-4.554	-6.554	21	356.45202154751	36.878140543895	0.24928900000735	16	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2023-01-20 11:00:06	FORECAST	2023	113	-171	27.662	19.94	23.801	102.18755640246	0.67322871	0.85322871	6.48	7.33322871	T	T	-4.338	-6.338	21	355.67106321108	36.345156832603	0.25684422044947	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-01-20 07:00:20	FORECAST	2023	113	-171	28.058	20.084	24.071	102.222886164	0.72047283	0.90047283	6.48	7.38047283	T	T	-3.942	-5.942	21	355.69279927786	36.359944529936	0.27099830064495	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-01-20 03:00:16	FORECAST	2023	113	-171	27.14	19.202	23.171	101.83474001832	0.6299216	0.8099216	6.48	7.2899216	T	T	-4.86	-5.86	21	355.45389157851	36.197554637399	0.23879109856555	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2023-01-19 23:00:06	FORECAST	2023	113	-171	27.77	18.986	23.378	97.575029372638	0.52755934	0.52755934	6.48	7.00755934	T	T	-4.23	-8.23	21	352.81646358057	34.426076797024	0.2606659706705	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-01-19 19:00:07	FORECAST	2023	113	-171	28.148	19.994	24.071	98.007528082521	0.6299216	0.6299216	6.48	7.1099216	T	T	-3.852	-7.852	21	353.08555146652	34.605042100887	0.27426849582659	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-01-19 15:00:06	FORECAST	2023	113	-171	27.68	19.346	23.513	97.911505658374	0.59448851	0.59448851	6.48	7.07448851	T	T	-4.32	-9.32	21	353.02583468534	34.565291010345	0.25747915041553	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-01-19 11:00:05	FORECAST	2023	113	-171	28.58	19.67	24.125	97.718402929062	0.5511814	0.5511814	6.48	7.0311814	T	T	-3.42	-8.42	21	352.9056991167	34.485381302248	0.29023102694962	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-01-19 07:00:16	FORECAST	2023	113	-171	28.508	19.544	24.026	97.173629516306	0.45275615	0.45275615	6.48	6.93275615	T	T	-3.492	-9.492	21	352.56645985525	34.26016254985	0.28754064317921	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-01-19 03:00:15	FORECAST	2023	113	-171	27.356	19.49	23.423	96.941552765014	0.40944904	0.40944904	6.48	6.88944904	T	T	-4.644	-10.644	21	352.42179924665	34.16431644721	0.24617617397082	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-01-18 23:00:06	FORECAST	2023	113	-171	26.942	20.066	23.504	92.846874537106	0.37007894	0.37007894	6.65	7.02007894	T	T	-5.058	-13.058	21	349.85538462538	32.482979002444	0.23212916264015	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-01-18 19:00:06	FORECAST	2023	113	-171	27.77	19.652	23.711	92.67646798408	0.35039389	0.35039389	6.65	7.00039389	T	T	-4.23	-12.23	21	349.74799958031	32.4134092856	0.2606659706705	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-01-18 15:00:03	FORECAST	2023	113	-171	28.202	20.102	24.152	92.464586686645	0.31102379	0.31102379	6.65	6.96102379	T	T	-3.798	-10.798	21	349.61441356673	32.326952250142	0.27623991123435	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-01-18 11:00:07	FORECAST	2023	113	-171	27.554	19.4	23.477	95.112696576123	0.26771668	0.26771668	6.65	6.91771668	T	T	-4.446	-12.446	21	351.27882799303	33.411076580517	0.25305179746611	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-01-18 07:00:28	FORECAST	2023	113	-171	28.04	19.832	23.936	94.732340642097	0.27952771	0.27952771	6.62	6.89952771	T	T	-3.96	-10.96	21	351.04045114452	33.254883596978	0.27034660063799	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-01-18 03:00:11	FORECAST	2023	113	-171	27.842	20.39	24.116	94.811837677572	0.31102379	0.31102379	6.64	6.95102379	T	T	-4.158	-10.158	21	351.09029260217	33.287515832368	0.2632299449982	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-01-17 23:00:10	FORECAST	2023	113	-171	28.166	20.498	24.332	94.916140496098	0.35826791	0.35826791	6.56	6.91826791	T	T	-3.834	-8.834	21	351.15567102969	33.330341007456	0.2749248626775	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-01-17 19:00:07	FORECAST	2023	113	-171	27.95	20.588	24.269	94.985912154503	0.36220492	0.36220492	6.58	6.94220492	T	T	-4.05	-9.05	21	351.19939518821	33.358994900062	0.26709988255416	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-01-17 15:00:07	FORECAST	2023	113	-171	27.59	19.94	23.765	94.664967509169	0.36614193	0.36614193	6.49	6.85614193	T	T	-4.41	-9.41	21	350.99820300866	33.227233483592	0.25431266124903	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-01-17 11:00:07	FORECAST	2023	113	-171	26.456	21.092	23.774	95.410482483975	0.33464585	0.33464585	6.43	6.76464585	T	T	-5.544	-9.544	21	351.4652958506	33.533473453479	0.21622330285109	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-01-17 07:00:26	FORECAST	2023	113	-171	26.366	21.128	23.747	95.475927129287	0.33464585	0.33464585	6.46	6.79464585	T	T	-5.634	-9.634	21	351.50625713881	33.560385792073	0.2133484732756	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-01-17 03:00:29	FORECAST	2023	113	-171	27.302	20.282	23.792	95.508446705507	0.40944904	0.40944904	6.41	6.81944904	T	T	-4.698	-8.698	21	351.52660835335	33.573760339483	0.24431851667063	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-01-16 23:00:07	FORECAST	2023	113	-171	27.788	19.904	23.846	92.08856119499	0.40157502	0.40157502	6.46	6.86157502	T	T	-4.212	-11.212	21	349.37716154184	32.173640120778	0.26130575877052	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-01-16 19:00:08	FORECAST	2023	113	-171	27.392	20.408	23.9	92.14956895276	0.38976399	0.38976399	6.46	6.84976399	T	T	-4.608	-11.608	21	349.41566958383	32.19850333749	0.24741880117955	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2023-01-16 15:00:10	FORECAST	2023	113	-171	28.742	19.256	23.999	93.767888012665	0.68110273	0.68110273	6.48	7.16110273	T	T	-3.258	-11.258	21	350.43497560154	32.859547547926	0.2963270692952	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-01-16 11:00:10	FORECAST	2023	113	-171	26.042	19.742	22.892	94.255709687394	0.70078778	0.70078778	6.43	7.13078778	T	T	-5.958	-15.958	21	350.74141147374	33.059380655216	0.20318496907115	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2023-01-16 07:00:24	FORECAST	2023	113	-171	26.078	19.778	22.928	95.227437047358	0.71259881	0.71259881	6.54	7.25259881	T	T	-5.922	-14.922	21	351.35069299123	33.458225998368	0.20429979495487	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2023-01-16 03:00:24	FORECAST	2023	113	-171	25.952	19.652	22.802	95.909172046946	0.75590592	0.75590592	6.65	7.40590592	T	T	-6.048	-15.048	21	351.77725005102	33.738664797345	0.20041380539877	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2023-01-15 23:00:08	FORECAST	2023	113	-171	29.48	25.592	27.536	89.960968377496	0.38582698	0.38582698	6.68	7.06582698	T	T	-2.52	-14.52	21	348.03048731625	31.309159663862	0.32481043955098	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-01-15 19:00:06	FORECAST	2023	113	-171	32.486	26.798	29.642	90.650052098512	0.60236253	0.60236253	6.66	7.26236253	T	T	0.486	-12.514	21	348.46744458199	31.588592005993	0.45003271396455	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-01-15 15:00:07	FORECAST	2023	113	-171	32.414	26.294	29.354	90.378436864151	0.50000027	0.50000027	6.67	7.17000027	T	T	0.414	-12.586	21	348.29530101539	31.4783848729	0.44691799682697	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-01-15 11:00:02	FORECAST	2023	113	-171	30.002	26.942	28.472	93.735337182375	0.37795296	0.37795296	6.83	7.20795296	T	T	-1.998	-18.998	21	350.41451456799	32.846222676629	0.34560763304166	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-01-15 07:00:18	FORECAST	2023	113	-171	30.056	26.924	28.49	93.001048679819	0.37795296	0.37795296	6.72	7.09795296	T	T	-1.944	-18.944	21	349.95250045621	32.545949530552	0.34778724919271	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-01-15 03:00:18	FORECAST	2023	113	-171	29.156	26.852	28.004	94.456526003581	0.38188997	0.38188997	7.03	7.41188997	T	T	-2.844	-17.844	21	350.86744835922	33.141720259753	0.31216602251206	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-01-14 23:00:06	FORECAST	2023	113	-171	31.208	26.96	29.084	99.080983912221	0.33070884	0.39070884	7.35	7.74070884	T	T	-0.792	-17.792	21	353.7521479323	35.050110878193	0.39537821623468	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-01-14 19:00:08	FORECAST	2023	113	-171	30.956	27.086	29.021	99.355046109797	0.32677183	0.39677183	7.45	7.84677183	T	T	-1.044	-19.044	21	353.92204450146	35.163941050716	0.38480507425517	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-01-14 15:00:10	FORECAST	2023	113	-171	30.182	24.188	27.185	97.937107434098	0.04330711	0.11330711	7.44	7.55330711	T	T	-1.818	-19.818	21	353.04175796979	34.57588857901	0.35289250586577	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-01-14 11:00:11	FORECAST	2023	113	-171	28.976	24.224	26.6	100.29004604441	0.14960638	0.33960638	7.35	7.68960638	T	T	-3.024	-22.024	21	354.50078021576	35.552899570618	0.305234484541	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-01-14 07:00:25	FORECAST	2023	113	-171	28.85	24.17	26.51	99.018830003028	0.14960638	0.34960638	7.15	7.49960638	T	T	-3.15	-22.15	21	353.71360104136	35.024306931273	0.30042340103637	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-01-14 03:00:16	FORECAST	2023	113	-171	29.048	24.116	26.582	99.658396404248	0.22440957	0.42440957	7.14	7.56440957	T	T	-2.952	-18.952	21	354.10995948998	35.290030713545	0.30799891964032	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-01-13 23:00:09	FORECAST	2023	113	-171	32.468	28.832	30.65	114.31225708755	1.22834712	1.41834712	8.12	9.53834712	T	T	0.468	-14.532	21	363.01722520885	41.497318375283	0.44925373842502	16	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2023-01-13 19:00:10	FORECAST	2023	113	-171	32.468	28.832	30.65	114.01398271093	1.22834712	1.40834712	8.05	9.45834712	T	T	0.468	-14.532	21	362.83920661882	41.368743030283	0.44925373842502	16	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2023-01-13 15:00:09	FORECAST	2023	113	-171	32.594	28.958	30.776	115.00139700266	1.2204731	1.5404731	8.14	9.6804731	T	T	0.594	-10.406	21	363.42800800622	41.794728630609	0.45471050682637	16	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2023-01-13 11:00:07	FORECAST	2023	113	-171	32.99	28.58	30.785	116.68412613028	1.46850473	1.63850473	8.23	9.86850473	T	T	0.99	-11.01	21	364.42803360351	42.5229666384	0.47191130179085	16	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2023-01-13 07:00:23	FORECAST	2023	113	-171	32.954	28.562	30.758	116.28731879813	1.46850473	1.63850473	8.24	9.87850473	T	T	0.954	-11.046	21	364.19260077235	42.350981069933	0.47034493852294	16	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2023-01-13 03:00:13	FORECAST	2023	113	-171	32.198	23.198	27.698	113.06826511388	1.00787456	1.23787456	7.86	9.09787456	T	T	0.198	-13.802	21	362.27388303551	40.961679450892	0.43759422547786	16	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2023-01-12 23:00:04	FORECAST	2023	113	-171	31.424	22.928	27.176	112.88582452357	0.85433117	1.05433117	5.84	6.89433117	T	T	-0.576	-14.576	21	362.16466880218	40.883257251038	0.40450292834648	16	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2023-01-12 19:00:10	FORECAST	2023	113	-171	32	23.378	27.689	113.4435468363	0.86220519	1.06220519	5.95	7.01220519	T	T	0	-14	21	362.49837850677	41.123101780215	0.42907763848263	16	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2023-01-12 15:00:04	FORECAST	2023	113	-171	29.48	22.856	26.168	111.1459570443	0.66535469	0.94535469	5.74	6.68535469	T	T	-2.52	-18.52	21	361.12058694442	40.137093244339	0.32481043955098	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-01-12 13:53:02	FORECAST	2023	113	-171	29.588	22.856	26.222	111.13425044936	0.66535469	0.94535469	5.65	6.59535469	T	T	-2.412	-18.412	21	361.11354626282	40.132083291031	0.3290714284536	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2023-01-12 13:51:41	FORECAST	2023	113	-171	29.588	22.856	26.222	NAN	0.66535469	0.94535469	5.65	6.59535469	T	T	-2.412	-18.412	21	NAN	NAN	0.3290714284536	16	2	1	1	3	5	2	30	WET	L
2023-01-12 13:50:26	FORECAST	2023	113	-171	29.588	22.856	26.222	NAN	0.66535469	0.94535469	5.65	6.59535469	T	T	-2.412	-18.412	21	NAN	NAN	0.3290714284536	16	2	1	1	3	5	2	30	WET	L