MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, January 20, 2023

[ Thursday, January 19, 2023 | Index | Today | Saturday, January 21, 2023 ]

DAY 112 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/21/2023 07:00:14 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 39.96°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 16.16°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 28.06°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.725
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 8
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 8

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.74 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.10 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.84 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 96 in
SWE DAY: 20
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 350.98 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 33.74 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -172

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 9.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-01-21 07:00:14OBSERVATION2023112-17239.9599616.1628.0599896.13825916666700.746.16.84TT7.959967.9599620350.98392199573 33.7429832561590.725071572649316 4113129WETL
2023-01-21 03:00:12OBSERVATION2023112-17239.9599616.1628.0599896.13825916666700.746.16.84TT7.959967.9599620350.98392199573 33.7429832561590.725071572649316 4113129WETL
2023-01-20 11:00:03FORECAST2023112-17231.11818.12224.629900.746.16.84TT-0.882-0.88220352.7722037214434.9244481684220.40080853314376162113126WETL
2023-01-20 07:00:19FORECAST2023112-17230.84818.30224.57598.8137787500.746.16.84TT-1.152-1.15220352.6562303640234.8472947219990.39081833155212162113126WETL
2023-01-20 03:00:15FORECAST2023112-17231.53217.36624.44998.8137787500.746.16.84TT-0.468-0.46820352.6562303640234.8472947219990.41625144391773162113126WETL
2023-01-19 23:00:03FORECAST2023112-17231.71217.97824.8459500.566.16.66TT-0.288-3.28820350.2690106230733.2755560091920.4230077972922162113126WETL
2023-01-19 19:00:03FORECAST2023112-17231.87417.5124.6929500.566.16.66TT-0.126-3.12620350.2690106230733.2755560091920.42910799480741162113126WETL
2023-01-19 15:00:03FORECAST2023112-17231.04616.7923.9189500.566.16.66TT-0.954-3.95420350.2690106230733.2755560091920.39813783585649162113126WETL
2023-01-19 11:00:04FORECAST2023112-17231.44217.27624.3599500.566.16.66TT-0.558-3.55820350.2690106230733.2755560091920.41288239204465162113126WETL
2023-01-19 07:00:15FORECAST2023112-17231.26218.4124.83695.02769708333300.566.16.66TT-0.738-4.73820350.2864309969133.2869128571770.40616373724109162113126WETL
2023-01-19 03:00:15FORECAST2023112-17231.47819.00425.24195.02769708333300.566.16.66TT-0.522-4.52220350.2864309969133.2869128571770.41422925777586162113126WETL
2023-01-18 23:00:05FORECAST2023112-17231.58618.7725.1789100.736.16.83TT-0.414-7.41420347.7402554473631.644363245710.41827584899046162113126WETL
2023-01-18 19:00:06FORECAST2023112-17231.62218.4125.0169100.736.16.83TT-0.378-7.37820347.7402554473631.644363245710.41962665941459162113126WETL
2023-01-18 15:00:03FORECAST2023112-17231.76617.63624.7019100.736.16.83TT-0.234-6.23420347.7402554473631.644363245710.42503922190942162113126WETL
2023-01-18 11:00:07FORECAST2023112-17231.49618.19424.84593.85403296767400.736.16.83TT-0.504-6.50420349.5471671244632.8064113470560.41490307006951162113126WETL
2023-01-18 07:00:26FORECAST2023112-17231.76618.78825.27793.3807096565900.76.16.8TT-0.234-6.23420349.2484075595732.6130641443470.42503922190942162113126WETL
2023-01-18 03:00:11FORECAST2023112-17232.30618.35625.33193.38989254534900.726.16.82TT0.306-4.69420349.2542071753232.6168128791140.44545427896592162113126WETL
2023-01-17 23:00:09FORECAST2023112-17232.84618.9525.89893.01725734283800.755.996.74TT0.846-4.15420349.0187541601132.4647672731880.4660150290299162113126WETL
2023-01-17 19:00:07FORECAST2023112-17232.88219.0425.96193.0796016006900.775.996.76TT0.882-4.11820349.0581624838632.4901946994660.46738959460002162113126WETL
2023-01-17 15:00:06FORECAST2023112-17232.84618.525.67392.70317541450500.685.996.67TT0.846-4.15420348.8201254226932.3367332751690.4660150290299162113126WETL
2023-01-17 11:00:06FORECAST2023112-17232.68418.21225.44893.65942888607900.625.996.61TT0.684-3.31620349.4243773734432.726887623670.45983473462567162113126WETL
2023-01-17 07:00:24FORECAST2023112-17232.86418.44625.65593.72267220060700.655.996.64TT0.864-3.13620349.4642887994732.7527269849710.4667022621734162113126WETL
2023-01-17 03:00:27FORECAST2023112-17233.4417.8725.65593.47378089805300.635.966.59TT1.44-2.5620349.3071820856232.6510630043880.4887349823658162113126WETL
2023-01-16 23:00:06FORECAST2023112-17233.42217.97825.790.00446115336300.675.976.64TT1.422-5.57820347.1068838827731.2411680464920.4880455877018162113126WETL
2023-01-16 19:00:07FORECAST2023112-17233.0818.21225.64690.08380952975500.655.996.64TT1.08-5.9220347.1574248569631.2732633376550.47495621992841162113126WETL
2023-01-16 15:00:09FORECAST2023112-17233.15219.00426.07890.16685569889700.695.976.66TT1.152-6.84820347.210310233231.3068619399660.47771010578382162113126WETL
2023-01-16 11:00:09FORECAST2023112-17231.71219.2225.46690.01040153567300.675.946.61TT-0.288-9.28820347.1106679639831.2435706007540.4230077972922162113126WETL
2023-01-16 07:00:23FORECAST2023112-17231.7319.27425.50290.94959616134400.745.986.72TT-0.27-8.2720347.7082265081831.6239227828960.42368471423065162113126WETL
2023-01-16 03:00:23FORECAST2023112-17231.31619.11225.21491.4839072576700.826.016.83TT-0.684-7.68420348.0475440152831.8407492379540.40817653075928162113126WETL
2023-01-15 23:00:07FORECAST2023112-17231.96418.42825.19687.70046415790400.726.146.86TT-0.036000000000001-11.03620345.6349014224730.3123412839220.43250442092068162113126WETL
2023-01-15 19:00:06FORECAST2023112-17232.0918.39225.24187.58898519424500.726.126.84TT0.090000000000003-11.9120345.5634607890430.2675528507240.43726775223119162113126WETL
2023-01-15 15:00:07FORECAST2023112-17231.85617.7824.81887.7567240171500.676.186.85TT-0.144-12.14420345.6709475402230.3349499440340.42842933054069162113126WETL
2023-01-15 11:00:02FORECAST2023112-17230.43418.10424.26991.73108571038100.636.387.01TT-1.566-15.56620348.2043604672731.9411640347520.37564105754894162113126WETL
2023-01-15 07:00:18FORECAST2023112-17230.43418.08624.2690.99928562230700.616.296.9TT-1.566-15.56620347.7398015272531.6440735214230.37564105754894162113126WETL
2023-01-15 03:00:17FORECAST2023112-17230.03817.7823.90992.34664729212500.856.367.21TT-1.962-13.96220348.5944611502132.1915297518270.36130114553734162113126WETL
2023-01-14 23:00:06FORECAST2023112-17228.418.48223.44197.15642188780501.026.577.59TT-3.6-15.620351.6216549036634.1623018487080.30421765161954162114128WETL
2023-01-14 19:00:07FORECAST2023112-17228.97618.17623.57697.441433266358016.77.7TT-3.024-17.02420351.7998783971434.2798843739480.32384119775601162114128WETL
2023-01-14 15:00:10FORECAST2023112-17228.97617.99623.48697.64515959604501.116.587.69TT-3.024-17.02420351.9271936229734.3639869875030.32384119775601162114128WETL
2023-01-14 11:00:11FORECAST2023112-17228.07617.20422.6499.3452925654550.074803191.114803196.617.72480319TT-3.924-17.92420352.987097118635.0676064350790.29341736742185162114128WETL
2023-01-14 07:00:25FORECAST2023112-17227.98618.08623.03698.0632087416040.082677211.132677216.47.53267721TT-4.014-18.01420352.188239955834.5367088911240.29044908598897162114128WETL
2023-01-14 03:00:16FORECAST2023112-17227.84217.83422.83898.1986077833480.082677211.152677216.377.52267721TT-4.158-15.15820352.2727290341134.592691551190.28572926333233162114128WETL
2023-01-13 23:00:09FORECAST2023112-17232.9918.26625.628106.426322157680.019685051.4896850578.48968505TT0.99-14.0120357.3526783680938.0317312719120.47151555980354162114128WETL
2023-01-13 19:00:10FORECAST2023112-17233.06218.37425.718106.119265357110.015748041.475748046.938.40574804TT1.062-13.93820357.1649964937337.9020870391890.47426793021291162114128WETL
2023-01-13 15:00:08FORECAST2023112-17232.93619.41826.177107.215800423880.129921331.769921336.878.63992133TT0.936-10.06420357.8345585368938.365518612860.4694521671741621151210WETL
2023-01-13 11:00:07FORECAST2023112-17232.919.7626.33107.825909118180.027559071.617559076.968.57755907TT0.9-11.120358.2062941007538.6239193132680.468077024269741621151210WETL
2023-01-13 07:00:22FORECAST2023112-17232.88219.7626.321107.422006910610.027559071.607559076.988.58755907TT0.882-11.11820357.9602633643738.452809884850.467389594600021621151210WETL
2023-01-13 03:00:13FORECAST2023112-17232.64820.26426.456106.105447690360.098425251.588425256.688.26842525TT0.648-13.35220357.1565472994837.8962553467560.458462599652451621151210WETL
2023-01-12 23:00:04FORECAST2023112-17231.9121.21826.564105.399184745960.007874021.347874024.876.21787402TT-0.09-13.0920356.7242881222737.598449147170.43046595019471162114128WETL
2023-01-12 19:00:10FORECAST2023112-17231.44221.75826.6105.936643779160.007874021.397874024.936.32787402TT-0.558-12.55820357.0533035390837.8250286271930.41288239204465162114128WETL
2023-01-12 15:00:04FORECAST2023112-17230.72221.7426.231105.32411406790.059055151.449055154.756.19905515TT-1.278-15.27820356.6782964680537.5668255827460.38618034113293162114128WETL
2023-01-12 13:53:01FORECAST2023112-17230.68621.93826.312105.308505532750.059055151.449055154.666.10905515TT-1.314-15.31420356.6687328801837.5602512298720.38485814999962162114128WETL
2023-01-12 13:51:41FORECAST2023112-17230.68621.93826.312NAN0.059055151.449055154.666.10905515TT-1.314-15.31420NANNAN0.384858149999621621145240WETL
2023-01-12 13:50:26FORECAST2023112-17230.68621.93826.312NAN0.059055151.449055154.666.10905515TT-1.314-15.31420NANNAN0.384858149999621621145240WETL