Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, January 2, 2023

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DAY 94 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/03/2023 07:00:13 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 28.38°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 21.94°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 25.16°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.323 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: -4 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -9 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.39 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 11.39 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 11.78 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 87 in SWE DAY: 2 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 327.10 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 28.36 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -190 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 2 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 4.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2023-01-03 07:00:13	OBSERVATION	2023	94	-190	28.38002	21.93998	25.16	86.715705833333	0	0.39	11.39	11.78	T	T	-3.61998	-8.61998	2	327.0996592905	28.364677833219	0.32305335150044	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-01-03 03:00:19	OBSERVATION	2023	94	-190	28.38002	21.93998	25.16	86.715705833333	0	0.39	11.39	11.78	T	T	-3.61998	-8.61998	2	327.0996592905	28.364677833219	0.32305335150044	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-01-02 11:00:01	FORECAST	2023	94	-190	34.46	22.2	28.33	88.97786	0	0.39	11.39	11.78	T	T	2.46	-2.54	2	328.65118158039	29.242678823495	0.63655244337454	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2023-01-02 07:00:15	FORECAST	2023	94	-190	33.88	21.95	27.915	89.205849703209	0.0004	0.3904	11.39	11.7804	T	T	1.88	-3.12	2	328.80705677668	29.331512888175	0.60724190227675	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2023-01-02 03:00:19	FORECAST	2023	94	-190	31.51	22.86	27.185	89.219799645584	0.0002	0.3902	11.39	11.7802	T	T	-0.49	-5.49	2	328.81659133864	29.336950399377	0.48285380316286	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-01-01 23:00:03	FORECAST	2023	94	-190	30.36	22.76	26.56	90.00144284866	0.0036	0.3936	11.39	11.7836	T	T	-1.64	-6.64	2	329.3502924975	29.642001527403	0.42234285371385	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-01-01 19:00:01	FORECAST	2023	94	-190	32.89	23.96	28.425	89.999729412505	0.0044	0.3944	11.39	11.7844	T	T	0.89	-4.11	2	329.3491237323	29.641332018152	0.55586787473054	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2023-01-01 15:00:03	FORECAST	2023	94	-190	32.04	24.93	28.485	89.999781333333	0.0021	0.3921	11.39	11.7821	T	T	0.039999999999999	-4.96	2	329.34915914849	29.641352305681	0.51096142144246	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2023-01-01 11:00:06	FORECAST	2023	94	-190	32.03	25.04	28.535	89.919705608152	0.0048	0.3948	11.39	11.7848	T	T	0.030000000000001	-4.97	2	329.29453240889	29.610067412581	0.51043115404256	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2023-01-01 07:00:26	FORECAST	2023	94	-190	30.24	23.22	26.73	90.383583933506	0.0206	0.4106	11.39	11.8006	T	T	-1.76	-14.76	2	329.61083067933	29.791408180098	0.4161083434541	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2023-01-01 03:00:22	FORECAST	2023	94	-190	33.06	25.46	29.26	90.234409223961	0.0206	0.4106	11.39	11.8006	T	T	1.06	-5.94	2	329.50915564239	29.733063993277	0.56478217448402	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-12-31 23:00:06	FORECAST	2023	94	-190	33.02	23.96	28.49	86.090660354682	0.0574	0.1874	11.39	11.5774	T	T	1.02	-0.98	2	326.66939100799	28.12318358954	0.56268747910942	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-12-31 19:00:06	FORECAST	2023	94	-190	32.56	22.24	27.4	86.195609999908	0.0846	0.2246	11.39	11.6146	T	T	0.56	-2.44	2	326.74168388465	28.163698754834	0.53848673005563	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-12-31 15:00:07	FORECAST	2023	94	-190	33.14	24.42	28.78	85.952230902954	0.0713	0.2013	11.39	11.5913	T	T	1.14	0.14	2	326.57400662646	28.069764424461	0.56896605916712	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-12-31 11:00:07	FORECAST	2023	94	-190	32.74	23.74	28.24	86.398410502139	0.0406	0.1806	11.39	11.5706	T	T	0.74	-0.26	2	326.88132516446	28.242026917042	0.54797862471934	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-12-31 07:00:17	FORECAST	2023	94	-190	32.56	22.64	27.6	86.334264626245	0.0658	0.2858	11.39	11.6758	T	T	0.56	-3.44	2	326.83716435207	28.217246236863	0.53848673005563	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-12-31 03:00:11	FORECAST	2023	94	-190	32.29	23.8	28.045	86.793187177747	0.0749	0.4049	11.39	11.7949	T	T	0.29	-4.71	2	327.15294826177	28.394647074236	0.52420937607912	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-12-30 23:00:04	FORECAST	2023	94	-190	32.26	22.2	27.23	80.403006520984	0.0213	0.3813	10.91	11.2913	T	T	0.26	-13.74	2	322.72257940135	25.947865656076	0.52262074459214	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-12-30 19:00:03	FORECAST	2023	94	-190	32.1	21.19	26.645	80.258937484113	0.0333	0.3433	10.91	11.2533	T	T	0.1	-8.9	2	322.62186382806	25.893287999984	0.51414258618868	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-12-30 15:00:03	FORECAST	2023	94	-190	32.63	21.57	27.1	80.147760178877	0.0297	0.3297	10.91	11.2397	T	T	0.63	-4.37	2	322.54411696041	25.851188533251	0.54218092995955	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-12-30 11:00:04	FORECAST	2023	94	-190	32.72	20.91	26.815	81.870768290181	0.0531	0.3331	10.91	11.2431	T	T	0.72	-6.28	2	323.74656249219	26.505379802541	0.54692522227558	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-12-30 07:00:28	FORECAST	2023	94	-190	28.02	20.87	24.445	81.370897033476	0.0534	0.2834	10.95	11.2334	T	T	-3.98	-9.98	2	323.39825620616	26.315206206557	0.30605974315843	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-12-30 03:00:21	FORECAST	2023	94	-190	35.13	20.38	27.755	81.694162311755	0.0534	0.2634	11.08	11.3434	T	T	3.13	-3.87	2	323.62355537942	26.438155261074	0.66943299244957	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-12-29 23:00:03	FORECAST	2023	94	-190	34.43	22.31	28.37	83.548293022092	0.0058	0.2058	11.35	11.5558	T	T	2.43	-0.57	2	324.91222123972	27.145861466595	0.63505416778795	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-12-29 19:00:09	FORECAST	2023	94	-190	35.08	23.26	29.17	81.816037747339	0.0058	0.1158	11.28	11.3958	T	T	3.08	9.08	2	323.70844824421	26.484542620681	0.66702008539608	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-12-29 15:00:09	FORECAST	2023	94	-190	33.61	22.63	28.12	81.796942413683	0.0086	0.1886	11.37	11.5586	T	T	1.61	4.61	2	323.69514904261	26.477273465827	0.59337547238208	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-12-29 11:00:10	FORECAST	2023	94	-190	35.08	22.97	29.025	82.346539254642	0.0003	0.1603	11.41	11.5703	T	T	3.08	14.08	2	324.07766537314	26.686674193202	0.66702008539608	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-12-29 07:00:22	FORECAST	2023	94	-190	28.33	21.72	25.025	82.390603089233	0.0003	0.1203	11.45	11.5703	T	T	-3.67	-11.67	2	324.10831043981	26.703479163368	0.32066904240448	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-12-29 03:00:20	FORECAST	2023	94	-190	32.9	21.71	27.305	82.15357606751	0.0003	0.2103	11.53	11.7403	T	T	0.9	5.9	2	323.94342489721	26.613110798863	0.55639307382949	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-12-28 23:00:11	FORECAST	2023	94	-190	38.9	25.5	32.2	100.46186473433	0.0027	0.1227	11.35	11.4727	T	T	6.9	23.9	2	336.39156071412	33.794523470232	0.82632665792002	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-12-28 19:00:03	FORECAST	2023	94	-190	38.64	23.99	31.315	101.32000006296	0.0028	0.1128	11.49	11.6028	T	T	6.64	29.64	2	336.96094042198	34.140882504769	0.81730903981908	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-12-28 15:00:11	FORECAST	2023	94	-190	38.69	24.29	31.49	102.82040734198	0.0028	0.1528	11.87	12.0228	T	T	6.69	23.69	2	337.95349564507	34.748516084871	0.81906547631884	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-12-28 11:00:12	FORECAST	2023	94	-190	40.63	27.92	34.275	103.96606452408	0.0326	0.1226	12.01	12.1326	T	T	8.63	25.63	2	338.70883244102	35.214224328439	0.87899761691778	16	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-12-28 07:00:29	FORECAST	2023	94	-190	40.98	28.02	34.5	103.07662270813	0.0326	0.1826	11.97	12.1526	T	T	8.98	26.98	2	338.12261042379	34.852536743742	0.8881203160833	16	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-12-28 03:00:23	FORECAST	2023	94	-190	40.49	27.68	34.085	102.77532869398	0.033	0.163	12.12	12.283	T	T	8.49	31.49	2	337.92373012714	34.730222437313	0.87520629099886	16	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-12-27 23:00:11	FORECAST	2023	94	-190	37.22	25.62	31.42	79.762181715115	0.3746	0.6246	13.46	14.0846	T	T	5.22	17.22	2	322.27430976367	25.705302057483	0.7630899762555	16	4	1	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2022-12-27 19:00:03	FORECAST	2023	94	-190	37.73	25.6	31.665	79.597690613677	0.3746	0.5546	13.5	14.0546	T	T	5.73	17.73	2	322.15912725093	25.643122539292	0.78351170428902	16	4	1	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2022-12-27 15:00:09	FORECAST	2023	94	-190	38	24.47	31.235	74.830965912602	0.4218	0.5418	13.12	13.6618	T	T	6	24	2	318.80030755328	23.856134947446	0.79389802816785	16	4	1	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2022-12-27 11:00:11	FORECAST	2023	94	-190	37.67	25.81	31.74	82.641109579056	0.1516	0.2116	12.92	13.1316	T	T	5.67	19.67	2	324.28246497939	26.799062722928	0.78116324561133	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-12-27 07:00:27	FORECAST	2023	94	-190	37.71	25.97	31.84	81.946883138913	0.1516	0.2716	13.13	13.4016	T	T	5.71	19.71	2	323.79955992344	26.534364697478	0.78273050658192	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-12-27 03:00:25	FORECAST	2023	94	-190	38.81	25.2	32.005	88.78827356247	0.1187	0.3587	14.1	14.4587	T	T	6.81	14.81	2	328.52149370963	29.168856254642	0.82323766727265	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-12-26 23:00:07	FORECAST	2023	94	-190	41.68	25.16	33.42	93.366806815388	0.1294	0.3594	13.48	13.8394	T	T	9.68	41.68	2	331.63607857418	30.963801681248	0.90487188741103	16	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-12-26 19:00:11	FORECAST	2023	94	-190	40.41	30.54	35.475	88.953072897655	0.0031	0.1731	13.36	13.5331	T	T	8.41	42.41	2	328.63422934578	29.23302455966	0.8730030377533	16	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-12-26 15:00:09	FORECAST	2023	94	-190	40.38	31.22	35.8	90.311104141007	0	0.11	13.07	13.18	T	T	8.38	36.38	2	329.56143445254	29.763057027703	0.87216990021206	16	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-12-26 11:00:09	FORECAST	2023	94	-190	32.73	27.07	29.9	89.594046815623	0.0679	0.1979	12.89	13.0879	T	T	0.73	27.73	2	329.07225721161	29.48291521834	0.54745196524432	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-12-26 07:00:19	FORECAST	2023	94	-190	32.67	29.36	31.015	90.518946847279	0.0367	0.1667	13.02	13.1867	T	T	0.67	8.67	2	329.70305848883	29.844373626736	0.54429028717297	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-12-26 03:00:35	FORECAST	2023	94	-190	30.67	30.27	30.47	88.660472771072	0.0005	0.1005	13.02	13.1205	T	T	-1.33	24.67	2	328.43403547814	29.119116859602	0.43853524229901	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L